Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=3280
{ "count": 6366, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=3300", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=3260", "results": [ { "id": 20695, "title": "Will the US unemployment rate be above 4% in November 2024?", "short_title": "US Unemployment Rate Above 4% in 2024?", "url_title": "US Unemployment Rate Above 4% in 2024?", "slug": "us-unemployment-rate-above-4-in-2024", "author_id": 103275, "author_username": "christian", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-12-19T05:59:08.706511Z", "published_at": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:03.659006Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 16, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-30T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-30T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-15T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-15T22:22:00Z", "open_time": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 433, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2844, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2024 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2024", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/cover.webp", "prize_pool": "2500.00", "start_date": "2024-01-01T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-02-01T21:03:36Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-30T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-12-20T21:03:36.088463Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-01T20:45:18.952794Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2844, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2024 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2024", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/cover.webp", "prize_pool": "2500.00", "start_date": "2024-01-01T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-02-01T21:03:36Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-30T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-12-20T21:03:36.088463Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-01T20:45:18.952794Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 20695, "title": "Will the US unemployment rate be above 4% in November 2024?", "created_at": "2023-12-19T05:59:08.706511Z", "open_time": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-02-01T07:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-02-01T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-15T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-15T22:22:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-12-15T22:33:41.247413Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-30T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-30T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The US [Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bureau_of_Labor_Statistics) (BLS) provides monthly estimates of the [unemployment rate](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/080415/true-unemployment-rate-u6-vs-u3.asp) in the United States. The most commonly cited unemployment figure is U-3 unemployment, which measures the share of people aged 16 and over in the labor force (meaning people employed or seeking employment) who are unemployed. The BLS [typically releases](https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/empsit.htm) its unemployment estimates for a month in the first half of the following month.\n\nBelow is a graph of the monthly seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate, from the [Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_Reserve_Bank_of_St._Louis). **Note that the underlying source is the BLS, though the chart may update with subsequent estimates published by the BLS and may not reflect the initially published estimates.**\n<iframe src=\"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/graph-landing.php?g=XFpS&width=100%25&height=475\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" style=\"overflow:hidden; width:100%; height:550px;\" allowTransparency=\"true\" loading=\"lazy\"></iframe>", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the monthly U-3 unemployment figure, in percent, seasonally adjusted, for November, 2024 is greater than 4.0%. Resolution will be determined according to the first estimate published for November 2024 by the BLS, typically found [here](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm).", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 20695, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1732955892.915052, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 431, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1732955892.915052, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 431, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.25, 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.7454828985602382 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.7338509963571828e-05, 0.04464509885368933, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 9.825180878529697e-05, 0.0, 4.1764609489094735e-05, 0.010315316641019954, 0.0, 0.0013578667754192367, 0.0, 0.0007225020984462627, 0.0, 0.012402788553810657, 0.0028143382342626566, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010003633881037364, 2.493381870246812e-06, 0.04860229182906113, 0.0, 1.6130252283247462e-06, 0.0014334673511507178, 6.597771445669376e-06, 0.014127524981135809, 0.0002464453007836819, 0.10211629063014638, 0.07180340447003636, 0.0, 0.10998334921465336, 0.04880931545012711, 0.0, 0.016426306965568977, 0.0073169892185766154, 0.11220657518487595, 0.000686452534832111, 0.0015309431201380756, 0.013684609037469285, 0.005820407696883412, 0.11567352829890815, 0.0025751811958250794, 0.039292015325454045, 0.05298397697362617, 0.1133580905514529, 0.026279285830181943, 0.03495672865560412, 0.14669981511162516, 5.5115016789443774e-05, 0.01534365500696944, 0.2421231594780594, 0.007501296841409054, 0.036083641266519854, 0.0011193623595091334, 0.024731286055411323, 0.14443599805862528, 0.11853041218425017, 0.9080761458617526, 0.645236695894072, 5.9491412269954786e-08, 1.0357474287246904, 0.005789314096472818, 0.7117976340581335, 0.5164196274883692, 0.44459027611984403, 0.6539938215551034, 0.815574097085682, 0.2173058717914154, 8.170194878032299e-05, 0.5581955582897768, 4.84052687901493, 0.942741576191749, 1.19167369281887, 0.6962456820487417, 0.48171611124724795, 4.868010785607269, 1.4093797731112314, 0.9154514581476905, 1.5286866878023826, 1.371238158308218, 5.464678874284566, 0.21200047161190338, 0.20123227695954707, 0.08108543710436569, 0.7243016718017237, 2.4039528269656643, 6.786902712527259e-07, 0.824725039425952, 0.3634850015339574, 0.2683700123101659, 0.7539437071457047, 0.06325763216418588, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3368142524913861, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.8077925366988494 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 12.132597269893353, "peer_score": 28.082513052239396, "coverage": 0.9998661133695773, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9998661133695773, "spot_peer_score": 7.755131065556152, "baseline_archived_score": 12.132597269893353, "peer_archived_score": 28.082513052239396, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 7.755131065556152 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728286861.969026, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 427, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728286861.969026, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 427, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.2904959131411763, 0.7095040868588237 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 10, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 902, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The US [Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bureau_of_Labor_Statistics) (BLS) provides monthly estimates of the [unemployment rate](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/080415/true-unemployment-rate-u6-vs-u3.asp) in the United States. The most commonly cited unemployment figure is U-3 unemployment, which measures the share of people aged 16 and over in the labor force (meaning people employed or seeking employment) who are unemployed. The BLS [typically releases](https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/empsit.htm) its unemployment estimates for a month in the first half of the following month.\n\nBelow is a graph of the monthly seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate, from the [Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_Reserve_Bank_of_St._Louis). **Note that the underlying source is the BLS, though the chart may update with subsequent estimates published by the BLS and may not reflect the initially published estimates.**\n<iframe src=\"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/graph-landing.php?g=XFpS&width=100%25&height=475\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" style=\"overflow:hidden; width:100%; height:550px;\" allowTransparency=\"true\" loading=\"lazy\"></iframe>" }, { "id": 20694, "title": "Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2024?", "short_title": "S&P Goes Up In 2024?", "url_title": "S&P Goes Up In 2024?", "slug": "sp-goes-up-in-2024", "author_id": 103275, "author_username": "christian", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-12-19T05:36:45.711611Z", "published_at": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:01.358868Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 64, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-01-01T05:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-01T05:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T18:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T14:47:00Z", "open_time": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 736, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2844, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2024 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2024", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/cover.webp", "prize_pool": "2500.00", "start_date": "2024-01-01T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-02-01T21:03:36Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-30T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-12-20T21:03:36.088463Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-01T20:45:18.952794Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2844, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2024 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2024", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/cover.webp", "prize_pool": "2500.00", "start_date": "2024-01-01T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-02-01T21:03:36Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-30T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-12-20T21:03:36.088463Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-01T20:45:18.952794Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 20694, "title": "Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2024?", "created_at": "2023-12-19T05:36:45.711611Z", "open_time": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-02-01T07:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-02-01T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T18:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T14:47:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-02T14:47:29.923218Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-01T05:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-01-01T05:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The S&P 500, also known as the Standard & Poor's 500, is a stock market index that measures the stock performance of 500 large companies listed on the stock exchanges in the United States. It is one of the most widely followed equity indices and is considered to be one of the best representations of the U.S. stock market. The companies included in the index are leading corporations from all sectors of the economy, including technology, healthcare, finance, and consumer discretionary, among others. Changes in the S&P 500 are used as a key indicator of the overall health and direction of the U.S. economy.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the closing value of the S&P 500 Index on December 31, 2024 is higher than that on December 29, 2023.", "fine_print": "The \"close\" values shown on the [history page of Yahoo finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history?p=%5EGSPC) will be used.", "post_id": 20694, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735695551.588868, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 731, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.98 ], "centers": [ 0.995 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735695551.588868, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 731, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.98 ], "centers": [ 0.995 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.0050000000000000044, 0.995 ], "means": [ 0.977149287404223 ], "histogram": [ [ 2.94787326065662e-07, 0.009766764570179949, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.259676788701991e-08, 3.7754995145512136e-07, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 9.78066629983488e-05, 0.00047781246288097507, 0.007109739781250202, 0.0, 2.0138212172863334e-07, 1.419793802200719e-07, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0866536530588168e-07, 4.505505807647878e-05, 8.013150317043204e-07, 3.270659620766691e-10, 0.0, 0.0, 0.018037852675051678, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.409057994790314e-05, 0.0, 5.7864904556084356e-11, 2.8354236812932755e-07, 0.0, 6.104376928403015e-07, 0.0010722438261093806, 2.4531102731846745e-09, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0024287473049727955, 0.0, 0.00034977249089533923, 0.0, 0.012432028279098348, 0.0016722169926550183, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11798326658026567, 0.0, 0.008589250561689977, 9.24564976363688e-05, 1.847154924029249e-07, 0.05666399309398025, 7.336618419457592e-09, 0.007209499374090879, 7.460128920775892e-05, 3.203134800240527e-07, 0.0, 2.7281285328661887e-05, 0.0335029111385992, 0.0020228328632861865, 0.004563932274200702, 1.4761297798676784e-05, 0.009058892724313313, 0.04218407299715587, 0.006752950491048553, 0.0016403822498529648, 0.003590648448419588, 0.0024359123254207144, 0.024165828953224514, 2.903707291510208e-05, 0.001585870905783889, 0.01363876296768188, 0.0031427796841806623, 0.04457023150038715, 0.20004488677369034, 0.0047961083598483, 0.0009625383424937866, 0.0003337096589717149, 0.19590597355465283, 0.04783515521787526, 0.006219301257900637, 0.00026193227140539516, 0.006685225723604487, 0.2693199523590974, 0.10004980601659791, 0.2154615304487079, 0.1785740760533949, 0.5622060310379842, 1.3980915860271086, 0.11329726181053172, 0.5474494660474566, 0.19886509898592009, 0.9305231228385602, 2.1947589057951546, 1.7508052110591978, 2.368433301586003, 4.854633521021704, 35.99294307090811 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 81.28995311389086, "peer_score": 22.325125097455405, "coverage": 0.9998994270360879, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9998994270360879, "spot_peer_score": 11.854228894598783, "spot_baseline_score": 58.496250072115615, "baseline_archived_score": 81.28995311389086, "peer_archived_score": 22.325125097455405, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 11.854228894598783, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 58.496250072115615 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287900.057187, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 725, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287900.057187, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 725, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.0482595299242401, 0.9517404700757599 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 22, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1749, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The S&P 500, also known as the Standard & Poor's 500, is a stock market index that measures the stock performance of 500 large companies listed on the stock exchanges in the United States. It is one of the most widely followed equity indices and is considered to be one of the best representations of the U.S. stock market. The companies included in the index are leading corporations from all sectors of the economy, including technology, healthcare, finance, and consumer discretionary, among others. Changes in the S&P 500 are used as a key indicator of the overall health and direction of the U.S. economy." }, { "id": 20592, "title": "Will the US Supreme Court grant a writ of certiorari to the presidential immunity case before February 1, 2024?", "short_title": "SCOTUS Agrees to Hear Trump Immunity Case?", "url_title": "SCOTUS Agrees to Hear Trump Immunity Case?", "slug": "scotus-agrees-to-hear-trump-immunity-case", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-12-15T23:34:47.597540Z", "published_at": "2023-12-16T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:03.178400Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-12-16T15:30:00Z", "comment_count": 9, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-22T19:50:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-15T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-15T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-12-22T19:50:00Z", "open_time": "2023-12-16T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 9, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 20592, "title": "Will the US Supreme Court grant a writ of certiorari to the presidential immunity case before February 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2023-12-15T23:34:47.597540Z", "open_time": "2023-12-16T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-12-19T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-12-19T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-15T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-12-22T19:50:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-12-22T19:50:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-15T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-22T19:50:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On December 11, 2023, US Special Counsel [Jack Smith](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jack_Smith_(lawyer)) filed [a petition](https://www.supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/23/23-624/292946/20231211144948077_U.S.%20v.%20Donald%20J.%20Trump%20--%20final%20final.pdf) for a [writ of certiorari before judgment](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Certiorari_before_judgment) to the Supreme Court, seeking judgment on the following question:\n\n>Whether a former President is absolutely immune from federal prosecution for crimes committed while in office or is constitutionally protected from federal prosecution when he has been impeached but not convicted before the criminal proceedings begin.\n\nThis petition reflects the latest event in the ongoing [prosecution of Donald Trump for election interference](https://www.politico.com/interactives/2023/trump-criminal-investigations-cases-tracker-list/#jan-six), following an [attempt by Trump's lawyers to dismiss the case](https://apnews.com/article/trump-justice-department-jan-6-special-counsel-118943be656200bbc3f22cd8612c1f8b) on the grounds of presidential immunity and Judge Tanya Chutkan's decision [rejecting that argument](https://apnews.com/article/trump-capitol-riot-immunity-donald-trump-a98872759762c95fa925ff831df27388). Trump's legal team has appealed this decision to the US court of appeals, pausing proceedings in the district court, however the trial is [scheduled to begin March 4, 2024](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-supreme-court-immunity-special-counsel-jack-smith/), and an appeal might delay the proceedings.\n\nThe petition asks the Supreme Court to decide on the immunity issue promptly so that the trial can proceed as scheduled. The Supreme Court has [responded to the petition](https://www.supremecourt.gov/search.aspx?filename=/docket/docketfiles/html/public/23-624.html) with a motion to expedite consideration of the petition and directing Trump to file a response to the petition by December 20th.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before February 1, 2024, the US Supreme Court has issued a decision granting a writ of certiorari before judgment for the [petition](https://www.supremecourt.gov/search.aspx?filename=/docket/docketfiles/html/public/23-624.html) filed by US Special Counsel Jack Smith against Donald Trump.", "fine_print": "* A writ of certiorari granted to a successor case consisting of one or more cases merged with the petition filed by Jack Smith against Donald Trump will also resolve the question as **Yes**.", "post_id": 20592, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1703278028.163792, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.82 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1703278028.163792, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.82 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.30000000000000004, 0.7 ], "means": [ 0.5754230494168358 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2047866778226079, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2814081443602781, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2102183212949817, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.46583116261132207, 0.13533528323661267, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2783559331905674, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": -0.7619265305459179, "coverage": 0.19661628314583024, "baseline_score": -13.568310707385256, "spot_peer_score": 11.740686452978402, "peer_archived_score": -0.7619265305459179, "baseline_archived_score": -13.568310707385256, "spot_peer_archived_score": 11.740686452978402 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1703274514.107975, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1703274514.107975, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7611069346695021, 0.23889306533049792 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 31, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On December 11, 2023, US Special Counsel [Jack Smith](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jack_Smith_(lawyer)) filed [a petition](https://www.supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/23/23-624/292946/20231211144948077_U.S.%20v.%20Donald%20J.%20Trump%20--%20final%20final.pdf) for a [writ of certiorari before judgment](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Certiorari_before_judgment) to the Supreme Court, seeking judgment on the following question:\n\n>Whether a former President is absolutely immune from federal prosecution for crimes committed while in office or is constitutionally protected from federal prosecution when he has been impeached but not convicted before the criminal proceedings begin.\n\nThis petition reflects the latest event in the ongoing [prosecution of Donald Trump for election interference](https://www.politico.com/interactives/2023/trump-criminal-investigations-cases-tracker-list/#jan-six), following an [attempt by Trump's lawyers to dismiss the case](https://apnews.com/article/trump-justice-department-jan-6-special-counsel-118943be656200bbc3f22cd8612c1f8b) on the grounds of presidential immunity and Judge Tanya Chutkan's decision [rejecting that argument](https://apnews.com/article/trump-capitol-riot-immunity-donald-trump-a98872759762c95fa925ff831df27388). Trump's legal team has appealed this decision to the US court of appeals, pausing proceedings in the district court, however the trial is [scheduled to begin March 4, 2024](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-supreme-court-immunity-special-counsel-jack-smith/), and an appeal might delay the proceedings.\n\nThe petition asks the Supreme Court to decide on the immunity issue promptly so that the trial can proceed as scheduled. The Supreme Court has [responded to the petition](https://www.supremecourt.gov/search.aspx?filename=/docket/docketfiles/html/public/23-624.html) with a motion to expedite consideration of the petition and directing Trump to file a response to the petition by December 20th." }, { "id": 20588, "title": "Will any Western countries go to war against each other before 2070?", "short_title": "Western War by 2070", "url_title": "Western War by 2070", "slug": "western-war-by-2070", "author_id": 114911, "author_username": "Joker", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-12-15T14:55:06.602572Z", "published_at": "2023-12-17T00:18:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-16T22:10:57.652523Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-12-17T00:18:00Z", "comment_count": 28, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2070-01-01T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2070-01-03T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": 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"question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Since the end of the [Second World War](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_II), [no two Western countries](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Long_Peace) [have gone to war](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pax_Europaea) [with each other.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pax_Americana) This is notable because [wars between Western countries were once a regular occurrence.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_conflicts_in_Europe)\n\nThis questions asks: will there be a war between two Western countries before 2070?", "resolution_criteria": "For the purposes of this question, \"Western\" countries [will be defined as the following:](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Western_world)\n\n| | | |\n|----------------------|----------------------|----------------|\n| Austria | Belgium | Canada |\n| Croatia | Czechia | Denmark |\n| Estonia | Finland | France |\n| Germany | Great Britain | Hungary |\n| Iceland | Ireland | Italy |\n| Latvia | Lithuania | Luxembourg |\n| Netherlands | Poland | Portugal |\n| Slovakia | Slovenia | Spain |\n| Sweden | Switzerland | United States of America |\n|Australia | New Zealand|\n\n\n\nFor the purpose of this question, \"engage in a war\" will be defined as one or more of the following being true:\n\n- One Western country formally declares war on another Western country, or announces that it is in a state of war with that nation.\n\n- A clear consensus of international authorities indicates that a state of active warfare exists between those two countries.\n\n- An armed conflict occurs between two or more Western countries in which at least 1,000 nationals of all Western belligerents, or 0.005% (1 out of 20,000) of the de facto pre-war population of any one Western belligerent, are confirmed to have been killed directly by armed combat within a 1 year (365 day) period. In the event that such a conflict begins less than 1 year prior to this question's resolution date, deaths occurring after the specified resolution date will not be considered.", "fine_print": "In the event that one Western nation states that it is at war with another as a [joke](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Whisky_War) or [stunt](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cod_Wars), Metaculus will use their discretion to determine whether that statement describes a de facto declaration of war by one country on another.\n\nAccidental or unauthorized use of weapons or military force during peacetime will not count towards the resolution of this question. 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0.9313079260494632, 0.06869207395053678 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 118, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Since the end of the [Second World War](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_II), [no two Western countries](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Long_Peace) [have gone to war](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pax_Europaea) [with each other.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pax_Americana) This is notable because [wars between Western countries were once a regular occurrence.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_conflicts_in_Europe)\n\nThis questions asks: will there be a war between two Western countries before 2070?" }, { "id": 20569, "title": "Will NASA re-establish communications with Voyager 1 before 1 Jan 2024?", "short_title": "Voyager 1 comms reestablished by 2024?", "url_title": "Voyager 1 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"nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[The Voyager probes](https://science.nasa.gov/mission/voyager/voyager-1/) are the human-made machines that have gone both the fastest and the furthest away from Earth. They were launched in the late '70s,\n\n> Initially designed to last five years, the Voyager probes are the two longest-operating spacecraft in history. Their exceptionally long lifespans mean that both spacecraft have provided additional insights about our solar system and beyond after achieving their preliminary goals of flying by Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus and Neptune decades ago. \n\nHowever, their continued operation relies on creative ways to shut down instruments to conserve power, and it's not always smooth sailing:\n\n> Along the way, both spacecraft have encountered unexpected issues and dropouts, including a seven-month period in 2020 when Voyager 2 couldn’t communicate with Earth. In August, the mission team used a long-shot “shout” technique to restore communications with Voyager 2 after a command inadvertently oriented the spacecraft’s antenna in the wrong direction. \n\n[Unfortunately, now](https://edition.cnn.com/2023/12/13/world/voyager-1-computer-issue-scn/index.html)\n\n> Voyager 1’s flight data system now appears to be stuck on auto-repeat. The mission team first noticed the issue November 14, when the flight data system’s telecommunications unit began sending back a repeating pattern of ones and zeroes, like it was trapped in a loop. \n\nA fix is [unlikely to to implemented](https://blogs.nasa.gov/sunspot/2023/12/12/engineers-working-to-resolve-issue-with-voyager-1-computer/) before the new year.\n\n> It could take several weeks for engineers to develop a new plan to remedy the issue. Finding solutions to challenges the probes encounter often entails consulting original, decades-old documents written by engineers who didn’t anticipate the issues that are arising today. As a result, it takes time for the team to understand how a new command will affect the spacecraft’s operations in order to avoid unintended consequences.\n\nThis question answers *how* unlikely, exactly?", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves **Yes** if, before 1 January 2024, NASA or other credible sources reports that the communications or computer issue with Voyager 1 has been solved. If the solution does not involve the suspected flight data system (FDS), this still resolves **Yes**, as long as NASA starts receiving either of \"science or engineering data\".\n\nIn all other cases this question resolves **No**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 20569, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704012618.850146, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 58, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.009 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704012618.850146, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 58, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.009 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.1278625066679621 ], "histogram": [ [ 3.7974066400948856, 3.733910441097584, 1.2932464150784564, 0.17857604057686172, 0.05805593081998391, 0.55695883704389, 0.0, 0.04312565778056248, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8190790998590399, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9211066549398389, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03041962011451429, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08895535332445731, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2147640392565064, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0020262681176405166, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 10.79201190787003, "coverage": 0.999829866203428, "baseline_score": 93.28441693192275, "spot_peer_score": 7.392943039140205, "peer_archived_score": 10.79201190787003, "baseline_archived_score": 93.28441693192275, "spot_peer_archived_score": 7.392943039140205 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704012618.878396, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 58, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704012618.878396, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 58, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 186, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[The Voyager probes](https://science.nasa.gov/mission/voyager/voyager-1/) are the human-made machines that have gone both the fastest and the furthest away from Earth. They were launched in the late '70s,\n\n> Initially designed to last five years, the Voyager probes are the two longest-operating spacecraft in history. Their exceptionally long lifespans mean that both spacecraft have provided additional insights about our solar system and beyond after achieving their preliminary goals of flying by Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus and Neptune decades ago. \n\nHowever, their continued operation relies on creative ways to shut down instruments to conserve power, and it's not always smooth sailing:\n\n> Along the way, both spacecraft have encountered unexpected issues and dropouts, including a seven-month period in 2020 when Voyager 2 couldn’t communicate with Earth. In August, the mission team used a long-shot “shout” technique to restore communications with Voyager 2 after a command inadvertently oriented the spacecraft’s antenna in the wrong direction. \n\n[Unfortunately, now](https://edition.cnn.com/2023/12/13/world/voyager-1-computer-issue-scn/index.html)\n\n> Voyager 1’s flight data system now appears to be stuck on auto-repeat. The mission team first noticed the issue November 14, when the flight data system’s telecommunications unit began sending back a repeating pattern of ones and zeroes, like it was trapped in a loop. \n\nA fix is [unlikely to to implemented](https://blogs.nasa.gov/sunspot/2023/12/12/engineers-working-to-resolve-issue-with-voyager-1-computer/) before the new year.\n\n> It could take several weeks for engineers to develop a new plan to remedy the issue. Finding solutions to challenges the probes encounter often entails consulting original, decades-old documents written by engineers who didn’t anticipate the issues that are arising today. As a result, it takes time for the team to understand how a new command will affect the spacecraft’s operations in order to avoid unintended consequences.\n\nThis question answers *how* unlikely, exactly?" }, { "id": 20568, "title": "Before 2024, will it be announced that either of the Harvard or MIT presidents will vacate their positions?", "short_title": "Harvard or MIT Presidents Vacate Before 2024?", "url_title": "Harvard or MIT Presidents Vacate Before 2024?", "slug": "harvard-or-mit-presidents-vacate-before-2024", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-12-14T22:47:48.294931Z", "published_at": "2023-12-15T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:52.336519Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-12-15T15:30:00Z", "comment_count": 8, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-02T22:13:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-02T22:13:00Z", "open_time": "2023-12-15T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 80, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2654, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q4 2023 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2023q4", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/quarterlycup.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-10-03T15:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-01-04T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-01-05T15:54:55.645171Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2654, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q4 2023 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2023q4", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/quarterlycup.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-10-03T15:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-01-04T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-01-05T15:54:55.645171Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 20568, "title": "Before 2024, will it be announced that either of the Harvard or MIT presidents will vacate their positions?", "created_at": "2023-12-14T22:47:48.294931Z", "open_time": "2023-12-15T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-12-17T06:39:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-12-17T06:39:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-02T22:13:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-02T22:13:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-01-02T22:13:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Following the October 7, 2023, Hamas attack on Israel and Israel's military response, a number of [protests were held at US universities](https://abcnews.go.com/US/israel-hamas-war-college-campuses-edge-tackling-issue/story?id=105046118), some of which included students making [antisemitic threats](https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/fbi-investigating-antisemitic-threats-targeting-cornell-universitys-jewish/story?id=104480004). In November, the federal government [opened civil rights investigations](https://apnews.com/article/israel-hamas-colleges-civil-rights-investigation-discrimination-f93aa9355f4c2d97b188df8546cc5131) into a number of universities.\n\nIn late November the House Committee on Education and the Workforce [announced a hearing](https://www.cnn.com/2023/11/28/business/antisemitism-hearing-college-presidents/index.html) to be held on December 5th featuring testimony on antisemitism on college campuses from Harvard President Claudine Gay, MIT President Sally Kornbluth and Penn President Liz Magill. Following the hearing [all three were criticized](https://apnews.com/article/harvard-penn-mit-president-congress-intifada-193a1c81e9ebcc15c5dd68b71b4c6b71) for not providing clear answers in response to questions about whether antisemitic speech violated university policy. Penn President Liz Magill stepped down after receiving backlash for her responses during the hearing.\n\nClaudine Gay and Sally Kornbluth remain presidents of their respective universities, and on December 12th the Harvard board [unanimously expressed their support](https://www.cnn.com/2023/12/12/business/claudine-gay-harvard/index.html) for Gay. However, Gay has also [faced accusations of plagiarism](https://www.thecrimson.com/article/2023/12/14/gay-new-plagiarism-allegations/) during the increased scrutiny, and on December 13th the US House of Representatives passed a resolution condemning antisemitism that included a call for Gay and Kornbluth to step down. [According to Axios](https://www.axios.com/2023/12/14/antisemitism-vote-harvard-mit-house-democrats):\n\n>The resolution passed 303-126, with 84 Democrats voting in favor of it and 125 voting against it. All Republicans except Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) voted for it. . . The measure was voted on under a process known as suspension of the rules, meaning it needed two-thirds, or roughly 290 votes, to pass.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2024, it is announced by the respective president or university that either Harvard President Claudine Gay or Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) President Sally Kornbluth will vacate or have vacated the office of president at their university, for any reason.", "fine_print": "* The position need not be vacated before 2024, only an announcement is required.\n* Such announcement will resolve the question as **Yes**, even if it's later reversed.", "post_id": 20568, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704056689.694851, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 80, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.002 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704056689.694851, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 80, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.002 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.025574857456343837 ], "histogram": [ [ 8.135727910036803, 5.168271642420334, 0.1523225041213806, 0.215881738789087, 0.17414470245616756, 0.2740831875373049, 0.0, 0.23201409926898375, 0.040774056763402934, 0.001511304389081846, 1.3464759530682977, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02356201288525273, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5285340505500855, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07282349883545862, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02591925143156949, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00035468804191158816, 0.0009641420590999903, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 7.724880805778989, "coverage": 0.9999820192017178, "baseline_score": 90.47056253779624, "spot_peer_score": 14.148291385983645, "peer_archived_score": 7.724880805778989, "baseline_archived_score": 90.47056253779624, "spot_peer_archived_score": 14.148291385983645 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704056689.958882, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 80, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704056689.958882, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 80, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 370, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Following the October 7, 2023, Hamas attack on Israel and Israel's military response, a number of [protests were held at US universities](https://abcnews.go.com/US/israel-hamas-war-college-campuses-edge-tackling-issue/story?id=105046118), some of which included students making [antisemitic threats](https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/fbi-investigating-antisemitic-threats-targeting-cornell-universitys-jewish/story?id=104480004). In November, the federal government [opened civil rights investigations](https://apnews.com/article/israel-hamas-colleges-civil-rights-investigation-discrimination-f93aa9355f4c2d97b188df8546cc5131) into a number of universities.\n\nIn late November the House Committee on Education and the Workforce [announced a hearing](https://www.cnn.com/2023/11/28/business/antisemitism-hearing-college-presidents/index.html) to be held on December 5th featuring testimony on antisemitism on college campuses from Harvard President Claudine Gay, MIT President Sally Kornbluth and Penn President Liz Magill. Following the hearing [all three were criticized](https://apnews.com/article/harvard-penn-mit-president-congress-intifada-193a1c81e9ebcc15c5dd68b71b4c6b71) for not providing clear answers in response to questions about whether antisemitic speech violated university policy. Penn President Liz Magill stepped down after receiving backlash for her responses during the hearing.\n\nClaudine Gay and Sally Kornbluth remain presidents of their respective universities, and on December 12th the Harvard board [unanimously expressed their support](https://www.cnn.com/2023/12/12/business/claudine-gay-harvard/index.html) for Gay. However, Gay has also [faced accusations of plagiarism](https://www.thecrimson.com/article/2023/12/14/gay-new-plagiarism-allegations/) during the increased scrutiny, and on December 13th the US House of Representatives passed a resolution condemning antisemitism that included a call for Gay and Kornbluth to step down. [According to Axios](https://www.axios.com/2023/12/14/antisemitism-vote-harvard-mit-house-democrats):\n\n>The resolution passed 303-126, with 84 Democrats voting in favor of it and 125 voting against it. All Republicans except Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) voted for it. . . The measure was voted on under a process known as suspension of the rules, meaning it needed two-thirds, or roughly 290 votes, to pass." }, { "id": 20560, "title": "Will the US Supreme Court issue a decision on hearing the case about presidential immunity before January 1, 2024?", "short_title": "Trump Immunity Cert Decision Before 2024?", "url_title": "Trump Immunity Cert Decision Before 2024?", "slug": "trump-immunity-cert-decision-before-2024", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-12-13T16:34:22.742787Z", "published_at": "2023-12-14T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:09.025294Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-12-14T15:30:00Z", "comment_count": 33, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-22T19:27:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-12-22T19:27:00Z", "open_time": 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"tournament": [ { "id": 2654, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q4 2023 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2023q4", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/quarterlycup.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-10-03T15:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-01-04T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-01-05T15:54:55.645171Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2654, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q4 2023 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2023q4", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/quarterlycup.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-10-03T15:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-01-04T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": 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"status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On December 11, 2023, US Special Counsel [Jack Smith](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jack_Smith_(lawyer)) filed [a petition](https://www.supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/23/23-624/292946/20231211144948077_U.S.%20v.%20Donald%20J.%20Trump%20--%20final%20final.pdf) for a [writ of certiorari before judgment](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Certiorari_before_judgment) to the Supreme Court, seeking judgment on the following question:\n\n>Whether a former President is absolutely immune from federal prosecution for crimes committed while in office or is constitutionally protected from federal prosecution when he has been impeached but not convicted before the criminal proceedings begin.\n\nThis petition reflects the latest event in the ongoing [prosecution of Donald Trump for election interference](https://www.politico.com/interactives/2023/trump-criminal-investigations-cases-tracker-list/#jan-six), following an [attempt by Trump's lawyers to dismiss the case](https://apnews.com/article/trump-justice-department-jan-6-special-counsel-118943be656200bbc3f22cd8612c1f8b) on the grounds of presidential immunity and Judge Tanya Chutkan's decision [rejecting that argument](https://apnews.com/article/trump-capitol-riot-immunity-donald-trump-a98872759762c95fa925ff831df27388). Trump's legal team has appealed this decision to the US court of appeals, pausing proceedings in the district court, however the trial is [scheduled to begin March 4, 2024](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-supreme-court-immunity-special-counsel-jack-smith/), and an appeal might delay the proceedings.\n\nThe petition asks the Supreme Court to decide on the immunity issue promptly so that the trial can proceed as scheduled. The Supreme Court has [responded to the petition](https://www.supremecourt.gov/search.aspx?filename=/docket/docketfiles/html/public/23-624.html) with a motion to expedite consideration of the petition and directing Trump to file a response to the petition by December 20th.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2024, the US Supreme Court has issued a decision either granting or denying a writ of certiorari before judgment for the [petition](https://www.supremecourt.gov/search.aspx?filename=/docket/docketfiles/html/public/23-624.html) filed by US Special Counsel Jack Smith against Donald Trump.", "fine_print": "* The outcome of the decision is irrelevant, this question only asks whether such a decision has been issued.", "post_id": 20560, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1703274478.450489, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 65, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.26 ], "centers": [ 0.44 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1703274478.450489, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 65, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.26 ], "centers": [ 0.44 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.56, 0.44 ], "means": [ 0.499735741658842 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.37113480134217347, 0.43057241793187284, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3015410701684357, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8896082579951491, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008689560138641658, 0.0, 1.1403593525919868, 0.5604905061740477, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04678195401930797, 0.0063312489975652355, 0.03081720770343554, 0.3051103923009614, 0.711842550274585, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2298616135755798, 0.0, 1.1862697604478205, 0.0, 0.27805738515481254, 1.1251335909614124, 0.034326350332688736, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6909260441653166, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1592171022412034, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14989147521115825, 0.0788563805239352, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.063638487907526, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08383481132998089, 0.7174764815915792, 0.16247035089338988, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18579727815834568, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07539365390346586, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.605646147459896 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 14.544145172635842, "coverage": 0.4714652801637487, "baseline_score": -19.259923351569643, "spot_peer_score": 41.080237819376116, "peer_archived_score": 14.544145172635842, "baseline_archived_score": -19.259923351569643, "spot_peer_archived_score": 41.080237819376116 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1703272165.15611, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 65, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1703272165.15611, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 65, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7250656572309966, 0.2749343427690034 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 250, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On December 11, 2023, US Special Counsel [Jack Smith](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jack_Smith_(lawyer)) filed [a petition](https://www.supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/23/23-624/292946/20231211144948077_U.S.%20v.%20Donald%20J.%20Trump%20--%20final%20final.pdf) for a [writ of certiorari before judgment](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Certiorari_before_judgment) to the Supreme Court, seeking judgment on the following question:\n\n>Whether a former President is absolutely immune from federal prosecution for crimes committed while in office or is constitutionally protected from federal prosecution when he has been impeached but not convicted before the criminal proceedings begin.\n\nThis petition reflects the latest event in the ongoing [prosecution of Donald Trump for election interference](https://www.politico.com/interactives/2023/trump-criminal-investigations-cases-tracker-list/#jan-six), following an [attempt by Trump's lawyers to dismiss the case](https://apnews.com/article/trump-justice-department-jan-6-special-counsel-118943be656200bbc3f22cd8612c1f8b) on the grounds of presidential immunity and Judge Tanya Chutkan's decision [rejecting that argument](https://apnews.com/article/trump-capitol-riot-immunity-donald-trump-a98872759762c95fa925ff831df27388). Trump's legal team has appealed this decision to the US court of appeals, pausing proceedings in the district court, however the trial is [scheduled to begin March 4, 2024](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-supreme-court-immunity-special-counsel-jack-smith/), and an appeal might delay the proceedings.\n\nThe petition asks the Supreme Court to decide on the immunity issue promptly so that the trial can proceed as scheduled. The Supreme Court has [responded to the petition](https://www.supremecourt.gov/search.aspx?filename=/docket/docketfiles/html/public/23-624.html) with a motion to expedite consideration of the petition and directing Trump to file a response to the petition by December 20th." }, { "id": 20559, "title": "Will Labour have a majority in the House of Commons after the next UK General Election?", "short_title": "Labour Majority After Next UK Election?", "url_title": "Labour Majority After Next UK Election?", "slug": "labour-majority-after-next-uk-election", "author_id": 111743, "author_username": "NathanpmYoung", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-12-13T15:34:44.506260Z", "published_at": "2023-12-14T18:14:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:59.277105Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-12-14T18:14:00Z", "comment_count": 8, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-05T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-20T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-20T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-07-05T07:00:00Z", "open_time": "2023-12-14T18:14:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 75, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 20559, "title": "Will Labour have a majority in the House of Commons after the next UK General Election?", "created_at": "2023-12-13T15:34:44.506260Z", "open_time": "2023-12-14T18:14:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-12-17T18:14:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-12-17T18:14:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-20T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-07-05T07:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-07-05T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-20T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-05T07:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The UK's Conservative Party [won control of Parliament in 2010](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_United_Kingdom_general_election) under David Cameron. Since then, the Conservatives have maintained control of Parliament. One of the key issues over the last decade was Britain's relationship with the European Union and its policies on immigration, with Conservatives ultimately paving the way for Brexit, while the Labour Party and other left-wing groups favored remaining.\n\nConservative leadership has been divided in recent years. In spite of this apparent weakness, Labour has also lacked a key leader, and the rise of the Scottish National Party, which shares appeal with Labour (their founder was Scottish), has led to a loss of most seats from Labour to the SNP. Some Scottish constituencies have experienced vote-splitting between Labour and the SNP, allowing Conservatives to gain seats there.\n\nCurrently, British law requires that the next general election be held [no later than January 28, 2025](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_United_Kingdom_general_election).", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as \"Yes\" if the BBC reports that the Labour Party has won a majority of seats in the House of Commons after the next UK general election that takes place after December 13, 2023. Otherwise, the question resolves as \"No.\"\n\nFor the purpose of this question all MPs of the Labour and Co-operative Party are considered Labour MPs.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 20559, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1722746930.833507, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 75, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.999 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1722746930.833507, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 75, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.999 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.0010000000000000009, 0.999 ], "means": [ 0.9847608461183238 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0007129919161079304, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.015174815764353458, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20409162864023808, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004095049893788444, 0.0, 0.0012808209520579696, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0009797596903721119, 0.0016218528311726184, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0034816323194887928, 0.013550184787389273, 0.0, 0.006379262637396644, 0.019372369342850363, 0.0, 0.0327181408019971, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03582325022318429, 0.011267889898822447, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.025725976524552732, 0.17051022884758463, 0.9368269783260588, 0.176921206317764, 0.3021711962239376, 13.862829937634636 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 11.956665876543834, "coverage": 0.5045197318317884, "baseline_score": 44.03903366572046, "spot_peer_score": 65.21628275861352, "peer_archived_score": 11.956665876543834, "baseline_archived_score": 44.03903366572046, "spot_peer_archived_score": 65.21628275861352 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1722758485.870468, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 76, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1722758485.870468, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 76, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.002050076644020793, 0.9979499233559792 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 199, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The UK's Conservative Party [won control of Parliament in 2010](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_United_Kingdom_general_election) under David Cameron. 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Some Scottish constituencies have experienced vote-splitting between Labour and the SNP, allowing Conservatives to gain seats there.\n\nCurrently, British law requires that the next general election be held [no later than January 28, 2025](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_United_Kingdom_general_election)." }, { "id": 20558, "title": "Will more than 200k houses be built per year, on average, in England and Wales, during the next Parliament?", "short_title": "More than 200k UK houses built?", "url_title": "More than 200k UK houses built?", "slug": "more-than-200k-uk-houses-built", "author_id": 111743, "author_username": "NathanpmYoung", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-12-13T15:34:43.335495Z", "published_at": "2023-12-28T20:38:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-30T04:51:04.500699Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-12-28T20:38:00Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-02-15T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-02-22T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-12-28T20:38:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 12, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 20558, "title": "Will more than 200k houses be built per year, on average, in England and Wales, during the next Parliament?", "created_at": "2023-12-13T15:34:43.335495Z", "open_time": "2023-12-28T20:38:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-12-31T20:38:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-12-31T20:38:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-02-22T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-02-15T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-02-15T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "A target set out in the 2019 Conservative manifesto for 300,000 homes a year by the mid-2020s was scrapped by Rishi Sunak last year and to date has not been replaced. \n\nSpeaking to BBC One’s Sunday with Laura Kuenssberg at the start of Labour’s annual conference in Liverpool, Starmer said his party would set a target of 1.5m new homes over five years\n\nSince 2017, on average, approximately 170k \"dwellings\" per year have been completed in England and Wales.", "resolution_criteria": "This resolves to \"Yes\" if, during the [59th UK Parliament](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_parliaments_of_the_United_Kingdom), an average of more than 200k dwellings are completed in England and Wales, per year, according to the [ONS](https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/housing/datasets/ukhousebuildingpermanentdwellingsstartedandcompleted).", "fine_print": "Metaculus will use calendar year figures for dwellings completed for all years in which the Parliament covers the full calendar year, and quarterly figures for all quarters in which the 59th Parliament covers the entirety of the quarter. Quarters in which the Parliament starts and ends will not be considered in the calculation.\n\nThe calculation done will be to sum the total number of completed dwellings, across England and Wales for the relevant years and quarters, and to divide that number by the number of years the Parliament was in session.", "post_id": 20558, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762772667.263894, "end_time": 1764886562.535978, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.12 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762772667.263894, "end_time": 1764886562.535978, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.12 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.88, 0.12 ], "means": [ 0.11578661810029384 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.637953589009114, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3551282879037044, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.488000457702583, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8078153568839619, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 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20557, "title": "Will the US sanction Venezuelan oil again by 2030?", "created_at": "2023-12-13T15:28:41.396708Z", "open_time": "2023-12-17T00:45:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-12-20T00:45:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-12-20T00:45:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-08T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-04-17T04:01:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-11-12T22:31:12.550275Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-04-17T04:01:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, 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of sanctions that were not in effect on December 15, 2023, will be sufficient for resolution. 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the most extensive rollback of Trump-era restrictions on Caracas.\n\n> A new general license issued by the U.S. Treasury Department authorized OPEC member Venezuela, which had been under crushing sanctions since 2019, to produce and export oil to its chosen markets for the next six months without limitation." }, { "id": 20556, "title": "Will Berkshire Hathaway pay a dividend before 2027?", "short_title": "Berkshire Hathaway Dividend 2027", "url_title": "Berkshire Hathaway Dividend 2027", "slug": "berkshire-hathaway-dividend-2027", "author_id": 111743, "author_username": "NathanpmYoung", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-12-13T15:28:39.076016Z", "published_at": "2023-12-17T03:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-03T00:17:06.044118Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-12-17T03:00:00Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-08T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-12-17T03:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 16, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 20556, "title": "Will Berkshire Hathaway pay a dividend before 2027?", "created_at": "2023-12-13T15:28:39.076016Z", "open_time": "2023-12-17T03:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-12-20T03:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-12-20T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-08T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Berkshire Hathaway](https://www.berkshirehathaway.com), led by Warren Buffett since the 1960s, has grown into a $750 billion enterprise, largely due to its strategy of reinvesting profits or buying back shares instead of paying dividends. The company paid its only dividend under Buffett's long tenure around the time he started. Buffett maintains that [dividends would only be considered if Berkshire runs out of investment ideas](https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/021615/why-doesnt-berkshire-hathaway-pay-dividend.asp) or can't repurchase shares at favorable prices. As the company grows, finding high-return investments becomes challenging. With Buffett now 93 and Berkshire's massive size, speculation arises about a potential dividend, which would mark a significant shift in investing philosophy and could impact global investor sentiments.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves **Yes** if Berkshire Hathaway Inc. officially announces the payment of a dividend at any point before January 1, 2027. \n\nThe source of resolution will be an official statement by Berkshire Hathaway or a reputable financial news source citing such an official statement. \n\nIn the event that Berkshire Hathaway is confirmed to have paid a dividend prior to the end of 2026, the question immediately resolves **Yes.**", "fine_print": "If Berkshire Hathaway pays a dividend for only one publicly-traded share type (for instance, BRK.A but not BRK.B), the question will resolve **Yes**.", "post_id": 20556, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762129015.068848, "end_time": 1764926634.001, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.07 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.07 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762129015.068848, "end_time": 1764926634.001, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.07 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.07 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9299999999999999, 0.07 ], "means": [ 0.0691998145356851 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3678794411714424, 1.1353352832366126, 0.701700440519318, 1.8848255354061108, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2047866778226079, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2814081443602781, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288948.316443, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288948.316443, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9772035419787225, 0.022796458021277527 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 58, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Berkshire Hathaway](https://www.berkshirehathaway.com), led by Warren Buffett since the 1960s, has grown into a $750 billion enterprise, largely due to its strategy of reinvesting profits or buying back shares instead of paying dividends. The company paid its only dividend under Buffett's long tenure around the time he started. Buffett maintains that [dividends would only be considered if Berkshire runs out of investment ideas](https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/021615/why-doesnt-berkshire-hathaway-pay-dividend.asp) or can't repurchase shares at favorable prices. As the company grows, finding high-return investments becomes challenging. With Buffett now 93 and Berkshire's massive size, speculation arises about a potential dividend, which would mark a significant shift in investing philosophy and could impact global investor sentiments." }, { "id": 20547, "title": "Will the Republican Party retain California's 20th District in the 2024 special election?", "short_title": "CA-20 Special election", "url_title": "CA-20 Special election", "slug": "ca-20-special-election", "author_id": 114017, "author_username": "Kaleem", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-12-12T20:49:59.812516Z", "published_at": "2023-12-17T00:25:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:50.745492Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-12-17T00:25:00Z", "comment_count": 14, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-03-22T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-05-22T05:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-05-22T05:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-03-22T22:00:00Z", "open_time": "2023-12-17T00:25:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 12, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 20547, "title": "Will the Republican Party retain California's 20th District in the 2024 special election?", "created_at": "2023-12-12T20:49:59.812516Z", "open_time": "2023-12-17T00:25:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-12-20T00:25:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-12-20T00:25:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-05-22T05:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-03-22T22:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-03-22T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-05-22T05:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-03-22T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Rep. Kevin McCarthy has announced his intention to resign from the house before the end of 2023 (and before the end of his term). Subsequently, the Governor of California is mandated by CA state law to schedule a special election to replace McCarthy. [More information about the process can be found here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_California%27s_20th_congressional_district_special_election). The election is will likely happen in April or May 2024.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve **Yes** if a Republican wins the first special election for California's 20th congressional district held in 2024, as verified by the [California Secretary of State](https://electionresults.sos.ca.gov/).\n\nIf no special election is held for CA-20 in 2024, the question is annulled.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 20547, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1716241429.095664, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 23, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1716241429.095664, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 23, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9886837994878848 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.061064077012331824, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0339924118233929, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13981930080831617, 1.1164748146920505, 6.75929918566247 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 6.275280486948422, "coverage": 0.6107930979517645, "baseline_score": 56.74374940475448, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "peer_archived_score": 6.275280486948422, "baseline_archived_score": 56.74374940475448, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1711097822.28094, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1711097822.28094, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.01898046075283688, 0.9810195392471631 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 36, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Rep. Kevin McCarthy has announced his intention to resign from the house before the end of 2023 (and before the end of his term). Subsequently, the Governor of California is mandated by CA state law to schedule a special election to replace McCarthy. [More information about the process can be found here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_California%27s_20th_congressional_district_special_election). The election is will likely happen in April or May 2024." }, { "id": 20533, "title": "Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2025?", "short_title": "Crimea-Russia Land Bridge Severed by 2025?", "url_title": "Crimea-Russia Land Bridge Severed by 2025?", "slug": "crimea-russia-land-bridge-severed-by-2025", "author_id": 130973, "author_username": "NMorrison", "coauthors": [ { "id": 103634, "username": "AngraMainyu" }, { "id": 126626, "username": "skmmcj" }, { "id": 126423, "username": "Eikonal" } ], "created_at": "2023-12-11T18:41:21.486937Z", "published_at": "2023-12-13T16:23:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:51.732008Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-12-13T16:23:00Z", "comment_count": 126, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T21:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T21:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-17T17:32:00Z", "open_time": "2023-12-13T16:23:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 224, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15873, "name": "Ukraine Conflict", "slug": "ukraine-conflict", "emoji": "🇺🇦⚔️", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 20533, "title": "Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2025?", "created_at": "2023-12-11T18:41:21.486937Z", "open_time": "2023-12-13T16:23:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-12-16T16:23:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-12-16T16:23:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-17T17:32:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-17T17:33:07.957021Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T21:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T21:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In late February and March 2014, following the Euromaidan uprising and removal of pro-Russian Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych, thinly disguised Russian military and paramilitary forces seized control of the Crimean peninsula in the far South of Ukraine and of most of the provinces of Donetsk and Luhansk in its East, leading to a protracted conflict.\n\nIn February 2022, Russia launched its full-scale conventional invasion of Ukraine. One of its first objectives was to seize the band of territory in Ukraine's southeast, between the Azov Sea and the Dnipro river, which connects Crimea in the south and Donetsk and Luhansk in the East.\n\nThrough the Spring and Summer of 2022, Ukraine achieved a series of counteroffensive victories and expelled Russian forces from a large area of the country. In September, Zaluzhny, the commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU), in his [programmatic article](https://www.ukrinform.ua/rubric-ato/3566162-ak-zabezpeciti-voennu-kampaniu-u-2023-roci-ukrainskij-poglad.html) on Ukraine’s coming campaign of 2023, called Crimea the \"*center of gravity of the enemy*\" and advised planning operations to seize it. Removing the Russian protective belt around the peninsula would be the first step towards achieving this goal. If executed simultaneously with destroying the Crimean bridge near Kerch it would cut off Crimea from supplies by land. Already in August, Arestovych, an advisor to president Zelensky, had [floated the idea]( https://www.unian.net/war/arestovich-schitaet-uspeh-v-melitopole-strategicheski-vazhnym-dlya-vsu-novosti-vtorzheniya-rossii-na-ukrainu-11935857.html) of an offensive on Melitopol, a key transportation hub on the land bridge, and opined that its success would collapse the entire Russian frontline. \n\nIn November 2022, with their supply lines in serious danger from Ukrainian artillery, the Russian occupiers fled Kherson for the left (eastern) bank of the Dnipro, leaving the southeastern land bridge as the obvious next objective. Several Russian military bloggers predicted a land bridge offensive, with variations in timing, possible tactics and the exact direction of attack, e.g. [Dimitriev](https://t.me/russ_orientalist/12458), [MIG]( https://t.me/mig41/22148) [Moscow Calling]( https://t.me/m0sc0wcalling/14259) [Nesmiyan]( https://t.me/RSaponkov/3947) and [Saponkov]( https://t.me/RSaponkov/3947).\n\nOn the Ukrainian side, the [New York Times cited](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/12/world/europe/ukraine-war-strategy-russia.html) \"*hints from the troops on the ground and volunteers close to them*\" that preparations for such an offensive were in the works. Russian forces were said to be aware of the danger and [to have been reinforcing their units and fortifying their lines]( https://ria.ru/20221019/svo-1825016250.html) in the Southeast for some time.\n\nThere is some flexibility with the direction of the offensive. Ukraine can strike in the east, towards Mariupol, in the center, towards Berdyansk or Melitopol (the most discussed option), or even in the west, from the newly captured Kherson towards Henichesk. Cutting the land bridge in two could be a first step to reoccupying it entirely, leaving Russia with no more territory than it started with, and potentially bringing the war closer to its termination.\n\nThe Ukrainian offensive [began in June 2022](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/06/08/russia-ukraine-war-news-counteroffensive/), but as of December 2023, it does not appear close to severing the land bridge, and in fact there are [significant doubts about its chances](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/12/04/ukraine-counteroffensive-us-planning-russia-war/) [of](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/11/us/politics/us-ukraine-war-strategy.html) [success](https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/12/07/ukraine-counteroffensive-russia-war-drones-stalemate/). Even so, [Ukraine will still get F-16s and other weapon systems](https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/ukraines-imminent-f-16s-arrival-only-part-of-broader-defense-talks-mod-reveals/ar-AA1ldR3c), and [Zelenzky appears determined to keep fighting](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/ukraine-russia-war-zelenskyy-counteroffensive-results-ap-interview/), [despite](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-67636302) political difficulties for providing military aid.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the [Institute for the Study of War](https://www.understandingwar.org/) or other reliable sources report Ukraine has severed the land bridge from Crimea to Russia at some point between November 1, 2022 to January 1, 2025, 00:00 [EET](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eastern_European_Time).\n\nFor the purposes of this question, severing the land bridge is defined as extending the overall zone of Ukrainian territorial control continuously from Kyiv to some point on the southeastern coastline from Henichesk in the southwest along the Azov sea northeast to the Russian border. Control means physical occupation; indirect control by artillery or other fires, by destroying infrastructure, etc does not suffice", "fine_print": "If there is a negotiated settlement such that Russia withdraws and Ukraine regains control over the land bridge, the question resolves **Yes**.", "post_id": 20533, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735654835.816833, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 222, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735654835.816833, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 222, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.04286205600922922 ], "histogram": [ [ 20.661474487108848, 3.9684486569293016, 0.5965335875869504, 0.01723465738260073, 0.1920819576865273, 0.027927588363359554, 0.2571774072527673, 5.7217417280881e-06, 0.2252789893384921, 0.0, 0.04766772412040164, 0.01610438486613727, 0.13963256273458682, 0.012881662101301894, 0.0, 0.02024870524987836, 0.0, 0.35230501271317916, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13625662226715304, 0.0, 0.005216056278854086, 0.16922461377009015, 0.0, 0.002001132295510785, 0.0, 0.0, 1.9115165644187e-06, 0.0, 3.682812766856257e-05, 0.2268975781830094, 0.0, 0.05744047312776203, 0.0, 5.5415849550497595e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19531038569927134, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001637830053275861, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21858588714729899, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 9.192897961257359e-07, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01859731980109266, 0.042752641275718144, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05980784423338987, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22600671075770956, 0.0, 0.05279157408911684, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010011365466038872, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2937958635214849, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05069363599025902 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 97.35676606184298, "peer_score": 20.462732027662323, "coverage": 0.9996966315927615, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9996966315927615, "spot_peer_score": -7.020053750397897, "spot_baseline_score": 58.496250072115615, "baseline_archived_score": 97.35676606184298, "peer_archived_score": 20.462732027662323, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -7.020053750397897, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 58.496250072115615 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289117.827916, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 211, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289117.827916, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 211, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9926373087875252, 0.007362691212474843 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 19, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 512, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In late February and March 2014, following the Euromaidan uprising and removal of pro-Russian Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych, thinly disguised Russian military and paramilitary forces seized control of the Crimean peninsula in the far South of Ukraine and of most of the provinces of Donetsk and Luhansk in its East, leading to a protracted conflict.\n\nIn February 2022, Russia launched its full-scale conventional invasion of Ukraine. One of its first objectives was to seize the band of territory in Ukraine's southeast, between the Azov Sea and the Dnipro river, which connects Crimea in the south and Donetsk and Luhansk in the East.\n\nThrough the Spring and Summer of 2022, Ukraine achieved a series of counteroffensive victories and expelled Russian forces from a large area of the country. In September, Zaluzhny, the commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU), in his [programmatic article](https://www.ukrinform.ua/rubric-ato/3566162-ak-zabezpeciti-voennu-kampaniu-u-2023-roci-ukrainskij-poglad.html) on Ukraine’s coming campaign of 2023, called Crimea the \"*center of gravity of the enemy*\" and advised planning operations to seize it. Removing the Russian protective belt around the peninsula would be the first step towards achieving this goal. If executed simultaneously with destroying the Crimean bridge near Kerch it would cut off Crimea from supplies by land. Already in August, Arestovych, an advisor to president Zelensky, had [floated the idea]( https://www.unian.net/war/arestovich-schitaet-uspeh-v-melitopole-strategicheski-vazhnym-dlya-vsu-novosti-vtorzheniya-rossii-na-ukrainu-11935857.html) of an offensive on Melitopol, a key transportation hub on the land bridge, and opined that its success would collapse the entire Russian frontline. \n\nIn November 2022, with their supply lines in serious danger from Ukrainian artillery, the Russian occupiers fled Kherson for the left (eastern) bank of the Dnipro, leaving the southeastern land bridge as the obvious next objective. Several Russian military bloggers predicted a land bridge offensive, with variations in timing, possible tactics and the exact direction of attack, e.g. [Dimitriev](https://t.me/russ_orientalist/12458), [MIG]( https://t.me/mig41/22148) [Moscow Calling]( https://t.me/m0sc0wcalling/14259) [Nesmiyan]( https://t.me/RSaponkov/3947) and [Saponkov]( https://t.me/RSaponkov/3947).\n\nOn the Ukrainian side, the [New York Times cited](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/12/world/europe/ukraine-war-strategy-russia.html) \"*hints from the troops on the ground and volunteers close to them*\" that preparations for such an offensive were in the works. Russian forces were said to be aware of the danger and [to have been reinforcing their units and fortifying their lines]( https://ria.ru/20221019/svo-1825016250.html) in the Southeast for some time.\n\nThere is some flexibility with the direction of the offensive. Ukraine can strike in the east, towards Mariupol, in the center, towards Berdyansk or Melitopol (the most discussed option), or even in the west, from the newly captured Kherson towards Henichesk. Cutting the land bridge in two could be a first step to reoccupying it entirely, leaving Russia with no more territory than it started with, and potentially bringing the war closer to its termination.\n\nThe Ukrainian offensive [began in June 2022](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/06/08/russia-ukraine-war-news-counteroffensive/), but as of December 2023, it does not appear close to severing the land bridge, and in fact there are [significant doubts about its chances](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/12/04/ukraine-counteroffensive-us-planning-russia-war/) [of](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/11/us/politics/us-ukraine-war-strategy.html) [success](https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/12/07/ukraine-counteroffensive-russia-war-drones-stalemate/). Even so, [Ukraine will still get F-16s and other weapon systems](https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/ukraines-imminent-f-16s-arrival-only-part-of-broader-defense-talks-mod-reveals/ar-AA1ldR3c), and [Zelenzky appears determined to keep fighting](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/ukraine-russia-war-zelenskyy-counteroffensive-results-ap-interview/), [despite](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-67636302) political difficulties for providing military aid." }, { "id": 20522, "title": "If Trump is elected president in 2024, will AI foundation model reporting requirements remain in place in the US at the end of 2025?", "short_title": "AI Model Reporting in US at End of 2025?", "url_title": "AI Model Reporting in US at End of 2025?", "slug": "ai-model-reporting-in-us-at-end-of-2025", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-12-11T15:58:44.505642Z", "published_at": "2023-12-11T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-14T19:14:55.980681Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-12-11T22:00:00Z", "comment_count": 9, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-12-11T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 44, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": 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"prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-08-09T13:41:59.374000Z", "close_date": "2023-08-09T13:41:59.374000Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-18T10:50:29.291422Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2677, "type": "question_series", "name": "Effective Institutions Project", "slug": "eip", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/eip.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-10-10T19:14:19Z", "close_date": "2030-01-01T20:14:19Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-18T06:24:57.953290Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 20522, "title": "If Trump is elected president in 2024, will AI foundation model reporting requirements remain in place in the US at the end of 2025?", "created_at": "2023-12-11T15:58:44.505642Z", "open_time": "2023-12-11T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-12-14T22:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-12-14T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*This question was written in partnership with the [Effective Institutions Project](https://effectiveinstitutionsproject.org/).*\n\nOn October 30, 2023, the Biden administration issued [Executive Order 14110](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/presidential-actions/2023/10/30/executive-order-on-the-safe-secure-and-trustworthy-development-and-use-of-artificial-intelligence/) “on the Safe, Secure, and Trustworthy Development and Use of Artificial Intelligence“. The order seeks to [set guardrails](https://apnews.com/article/biden-ai-artificial-intelligence-executive-order-cb86162000d894f238f28ac029005059) on AI development and includes a number of requirements for monitoring existing uses of AI and addressing risks involved in future AI developments.\n\nIn particular, the order sets reporting requirements for training large AI models that meet the definition in Section 3(k):\n\n>(k) The term “dual-use foundation model” means an AI model that is trained on broad data; generally uses self-supervision; contains at least tens of billions of parameters; is applicable across a wide range of contexts; and that exhibits, or could be easily modified to exhibit, high levels of performance at tasks that pose a serious risk to security, national economic security, national public health or safety, or any combination of those matters, such as by:\n>\n>(i) substantially lowering the barrier of entry for non-experts to design, synthesize, acquire, or use chemical, biological, radiological, or nuclear (CBRN) weapons;\n>\n>(ii) enabling powerful offensive cyber operations through automated vulnerability discovery and exploitation against a wide range of potential targets of cyber attacks; or\n>\n>(iii) permitting the evasion of human control or oversight through means of deception or obfuscation.\n>\n>Models meet this definition even if they are provided to end users with technical safeguards that attempt to prevent users from taking advantage of the relevant unsafe capabilities. \n\nThe order requires that any companies developing, training, or planning to train such a model must report their intent to the government and provide information regarding security measures, ownership of model weights, and results of red-teaming tests. Specifically, in Section 4.2(a):\n\n> 4.2. Ensuring Safe and Reliable AI. (a) Within 90 days of the date of this order, to ensure and verify the continuous availability of safe, reliable, and effective AI in accordance with the Defense Production Act, as amended, 50 U.S.C. 4501 et seq., including for the national defense and the protection of critical infrastructure, the Secretary of Commerce shall require:\n>\n>(i) Companies developing or demonstrating an intent to develop potential dual-use foundation models to provide the Federal Government, on an ongoing basis, with information, reports, or records regarding the following:\n>\n>(A) any ongoing or planned activities related to training, developing, or producing dual-use foundation models, including the physical and cybersecurity protections taken to assure the integrity of that training process against sophisticated threats;\n>\n>(B) the ownership and possession of the model weights of any dual-use foundation models, and the physical and cybersecurity measures taken to protect those model weights; and\n>\n>(C) the results of any developed dual-use foundation model’s performance in relevant AI red-team testing based on guidance developed by NIST pursuant to subsection 4.1(a)(ii) of this section, and a description of any associated measures the company has taken to meet safety objectives, such as mitigations to improve performance on these red-team tests and strengthen overall model security. Prior to the development of guidance on red-team testing standards by NIST pursuant to subsection 4.1(a)(ii) of this section, this description shall include the results of any red-team testing that the company has conducted relating to lowering the barrier to entry for the development, acquisition, and use of biological weapons by non-state actors; the discovery of software vulnerabilities and development of associated exploits; the use of software or tools to influence real or virtual events; the possibility for self-replication or propagation; and associated measures to meet safety objectives; and\n>\n>(ii) Companies, individuals, or other organizations or entities that acquire, develop, or possess a potential large-scale computing cluster to report any such acquisition, development, or possession, including the existence and location of these clusters and the amount of total computing power available in each cluster.\n\nSection 4.2(b) also sets forth a compute threshold for which the reporting in 4.2(a) is required:\n\n>(b) The Secretary of Commerce, in consultation with the Secretary of State, the Secretary of Defense, the Secretary of Energy, and the Director of National Intelligence, shall define, and thereafter update as needed on a regular basis, the set of technical conditions for models and computing clusters that would be subject to the reporting requirements of subsection 4.2(a) of this section. Until such technical conditions are defined, the Secretary shall require compliance with these reporting requirements for:\n>\n>(i) any model that was trained using a quantity of computing power greater than 1026 integer or floating-point operations, or using primarily biological sequence data and using a quantity of computing power greater than 1023 integer or floating-point operations; and\n>\n>(ii) any computing cluster that has a set of machines physically co-located in a single datacenter, transitively connected by data center networking of over 100 Gbit/s, and having a theoretical maximum computing capacity of 1020 integer or floating-point operations per second for training AI.\n\nWhile campaigning on December 2, 2023, Donald Trump [reportedly said](https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/campaigns/trump-vows-cancel-biden-executive-order):\n\n>When I'm reelected, I will cancel Biden's artificial intelligence executive order and ban the use of AI to censor the speech of American citizens on day one.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Donald Trump is elected president in 2024 **and**, on December 31, 2025, regulation is in place in the United States that satisfies the following:\n\n* All companies developing, training, or planning to train a dual-use foundation model with more than \\(10^{26}\\) integer or floating-point operations must provide the US federal government with all of the following information:\n * Notification of activities and plans related to dual-use foundation models, including security protections taken to safeguard the training process against threats.\n * Information on the ownership of model weights and security protections taken to protect model weights.\n * For developed models, the results of red-teaming activities.", "fine_print": "* If Donald Trump is not elected to be president in 2024 this question will be **annulled**. To count, Trump must actually take office.\n* The regulation need not be the same as Executive Order 14110, and that executive order need not be in place, so long as the requirements specified in the resolution criteria are met or exceeded.\n* If there is any ambiguity regarding the definition of a dual-use foundation model, any model broadly satisfying the following definition from Executive Order 14110 will count, as determined by Metaculus:\n\n>(k) The term “dual-use foundation model” means an AI model that is trained on broad data; generally uses self-supervision; contains at least tens of billions of parameters; is applicable across a wide range of contexts; and that exhibits, or could be easily modified to exhibit, high levels of performance at tasks that pose a serious risk to security, national economic security, national public health or safety, or any combination of those matters, such as by:\n>\n>(i) substantially lowering the barrier of entry for non-experts to design, synthesize, acquire, or use chemical, biological, radiological, or nuclear (CBRN) weapons;\n>\n>(ii) enabling powerful offensive cyber operations through automated vulnerability discovery and exploitation against a wide range of potential targets of cyber attacks; or\n>\n>(iii) permitting the evasion of human control or oversight through means of deception or obfuscation.\n>\n>Models meet this definition even if they are provided to end users with technical safeguards that attempt to prevent users from taking advantage of the relevant unsafe capabilities.", "post_id": 20522, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762953810.775453, "end_time": 1765336185.799, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.06 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762953810.775453, "end_time": 1765336185.799, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.06 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.98, 0.02 ], "means": [ 0.084529013575057 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.1219732676225247, 2.1160765841749627, 1.6280825902252571, 0.503214724408055, 0.0, 0.4160730744622002, 0.7337519574005283, 0.3239984154485755, 0.2841245407359965, 0.0, 0.06304339233244385, 0.0, 0.5898635470599414, 0.11399817092273035, 0.0, 0.04978706836786394, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01831563888873418, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.027714863046207582, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5267121648213062, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289367.852948, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289367.852948, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8403168562788484, 0.15968314372115158 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 224, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*This question was written in partnership with the [Effective Institutions Project](https://effectiveinstitutionsproject.org/).*\n\nOn October 30, 2023, the Biden administration issued [Executive Order 14110](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/presidential-actions/2023/10/30/executive-order-on-the-safe-secure-and-trustworthy-development-and-use-of-artificial-intelligence/) “on the Safe, Secure, and Trustworthy Development and Use of Artificial Intelligence“. The order seeks to [set guardrails](https://apnews.com/article/biden-ai-artificial-intelligence-executive-order-cb86162000d894f238f28ac029005059) on AI development and includes a number of requirements for monitoring existing uses of AI and addressing risks involved in future AI developments.\n\nIn particular, the order sets reporting requirements for training large AI models that meet the definition in Section 3(k):\n\n>(k) The term “dual-use foundation model” means an AI model that is trained on broad data; generally uses self-supervision; contains at least tens of billions of parameters; is applicable across a wide range of contexts; and that exhibits, or could be easily modified to exhibit, high levels of performance at tasks that pose a serious risk to security, national economic security, national public health or safety, or any combination of those matters, such as by:\n>\n>(i) substantially lowering the barrier of entry for non-experts to design, synthesize, acquire, or use chemical, biological, radiological, or nuclear (CBRN) weapons;\n>\n>(ii) enabling powerful offensive cyber operations through automated vulnerability discovery and exploitation against a wide range of potential targets of cyber attacks; or\n>\n>(iii) permitting the evasion of human control or oversight through means of deception or obfuscation.\n>\n>Models meet this definition even if they are provided to end users with technical safeguards that attempt to prevent users from taking advantage of the relevant unsafe capabilities. \n\nThe order requires that any companies developing, training, or planning to train such a model must report their intent to the government and provide information regarding security measures, ownership of model weights, and results of red-teaming tests. Specifically, in Section 4.2(a):\n\n> 4.2. Ensuring Safe and Reliable AI. (a) Within 90 days of the date of this order, to ensure and verify the continuous availability of safe, reliable, and effective AI in accordance with the Defense Production Act, as amended, 50 U.S.C. 4501 et seq., including for the national defense and the protection of critical infrastructure, the Secretary of Commerce shall require:\n>\n>(i) Companies developing or demonstrating an intent to develop potential dual-use foundation models to provide the Federal Government, on an ongoing basis, with information, reports, or records regarding the following:\n>\n>(A) any ongoing or planned activities related to training, developing, or producing dual-use foundation models, including the physical and cybersecurity protections taken to assure the integrity of that training process against sophisticated threats;\n>\n>(B) the ownership and possession of the model weights of any dual-use foundation models, and the physical and cybersecurity measures taken to protect those model weights; and\n>\n>(C) the results of any developed dual-use foundation model’s performance in relevant AI red-team testing based on guidance developed by NIST pursuant to subsection 4.1(a)(ii) of this section, and a description of any associated measures the company has taken to meet safety objectives, such as mitigations to improve performance on these red-team tests and strengthen overall model security. Prior to the development of guidance on red-team testing standards by NIST pursuant to subsection 4.1(a)(ii) of this section, this description shall include the results of any red-team testing that the company has conducted relating to lowering the barrier to entry for the development, acquisition, and use of biological weapons by non-state actors; the discovery of software vulnerabilities and development of associated exploits; the use of software or tools to influence real or virtual events; the possibility for self-replication or propagation; and associated measures to meet safety objectives; and\n>\n>(ii) Companies, individuals, or other organizations or entities that acquire, develop, or possess a potential large-scale computing cluster to report any such acquisition, development, or possession, including the existence and location of these clusters and the amount of total computing power available in each cluster.\n\nSection 4.2(b) also sets forth a compute threshold for which the reporting in 4.2(a) is required:\n\n>(b) The Secretary of Commerce, in consultation with the Secretary of State, the Secretary of Defense, the Secretary of Energy, and the Director of National Intelligence, shall define, and thereafter update as needed on a regular basis, the set of technical conditions for models and computing clusters that would be subject to the reporting requirements of subsection 4.2(a) of this section. Until such technical conditions are defined, the Secretary shall require compliance with these reporting requirements for:\n>\n>(i) any model that was trained using a quantity of computing power greater than 1026 integer or floating-point operations, or using primarily biological sequence data and using a quantity of computing power greater than 1023 integer or floating-point operations; and\n>\n>(ii) any computing cluster that has a set of machines physically co-located in a single datacenter, transitively connected by data center networking of over 100 Gbit/s, and having a theoretical maximum computing capacity of 1020 integer or floating-point operations per second for training AI.\n\nWhile campaigning on December 2, 2023, Donald Trump [reportedly said](https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/campaigns/trump-vows-cancel-biden-executive-order):\n\n>When I'm reelected, I will cancel Biden's artificial intelligence executive order and ban the use of AI to censor the speech of American citizens on day one." }, { "id": 20468, "title": "Will Sam Altman leave OpenAI (again) before 2025?", "short_title": "Sam Altman leaves OpenAI (again) before 2025", "url_title": "Sam Altman leaves OpenAI (again) before 2025", "slug": "sam-altman-leaves-openai-again-before-2025", "author_id": 107659, "author_username": "deKlik", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-12-08T22:55:41.533231Z", "published_at": "2024-02-03T21:31:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:22.739920Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-02-03T21:31:00Z", "comment_count": 7, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-14T08:08:00Z", "open_time": "2024-02-03T21:31:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 50, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": 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"2024-02-03T21:31:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-02-06T21:31:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-02-06T21:31:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-14T08:08:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-14T08:08:19.500553Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": 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New York Times: [Inside OpenAI’s Crisis Over the Future of Artificial Intelligence](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/09/technology/openai-altman-inside-crisis.html)", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves Yes if credible sources report Sam Altman has left OpenAI after February 2, 2024 and before Jan 1, 2025.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 20468, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735344101.215287, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 48, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.002 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735344101.215287, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 48, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.002 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.016281712325856193 ], "histogram": [ [ 9.484303728527587, 1.2085586203114635, 0.25114163834068226, 0.5535172680719667, 0.0, 0.08718333208629545, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23434107129204243, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07658881074466624, 0.0, 0.02700918083308739, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16054456415221713, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.28045304072399985, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 97.11297267590155, "peer_score": 2.922017477287903, "coverage": 0.9999942358606179, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9999942358606179, "spot_peer_score": 12.531930090959222, "spot_baseline_score": 98.5500430304885, "baseline_archived_score": 97.11297267590155, "peer_archived_score": 2.922017477287903, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 12.531930090959222, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 98.5500430304885 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728290016.361153, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 40, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728290016.361153, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 40, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9994645723772371, 0.0005354276227628783 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 100, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Sam Altman is back as a CEO in Open AI, but there is a new board, investigation and many open questions about his behavior. \n\n1. 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New York Times: [Inside OpenAI’s Crisis Over the Future of Artificial Intelligence](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/09/technology/openai-altman-inside-crisis.html)" }, { "id": 20467, "title": "If at least one frontier AI model has been trained by a Chinese firm before 2025, will a Chinese frontier AI model have been trained using US cloud compute?", "short_title": "Chinese Model US Cloud Compute", "url_title": "Chinese Model US Cloud Compute", "slug": "chinese-model-us-cloud-compute", "author_id": 119005, "author_username": "will_aldred", "coauthors": [ { "id": 142588, "username": "fist" } ], "created_at": "2023-12-08T16:01:53.206903Z", "published_at": "2024-01-11T18:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:24.240232Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-01-11T18:00:00Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": 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"2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-18T12:58:43.739351Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ] }, "question": { "id": 20467, "title": "If at least one frontier AI model has been trained by a Chinese firm before 2025, will a Chinese frontier AI model have been trained using US cloud compute?", "created_at": "2023-12-08T16:01:53.206903Z", "open_time": "2024-01-11T18:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-01-14T18:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-01-14T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-23T17:02:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-23T17:26:05.916329Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Presently, there is nothing to stop Chinese AI developers from carrying out training runs using US [cloud compute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cloud_computing)/infrastructure-as-a-service (IaaS), on account of an [export](https://www.bis.doc.gov/index.php/documents/about-bis/newsroom/press-releases/3158-2022-10-07-bis-press-release-advanced-computing-and-semiconductor-manufacturing-controls-final/file) [controls](https://time.com/6324619/us-biden-ai-chips-china/) loophole: While Chinese AI developers are restricted from physically buying many types of cutting edge AI chips, and the machines used to manufacture them, they are not currently restricted from buying [cloud compute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cloud_computing) provided by US IaaS firms who possess the exact same chips that are physically export controlled.\n\nChinese AI developers have not yet made use of this loophole to carry out a frontier AI model training run. However, as they become increasingly hamstrung by physical export controls, the loophole might present an increasingly attractive path forward.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2025, any [frontier Chinese AI model](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/20879/frontier-chinese-ai-model-by-2027/) is trained using [cloud compute / infrastructure-as-a-service (IaaS) provided by a US firm](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/20880/us-restricts-chinese-iaas-access-by-2025/).\n\nIf there is no frontier Chinese AI model before 2025, then this question will be **Annulled**. If there are one or more frontier Chinese AI models before 2025, but none are trained using US IaaS, then this question resolves as **No**.\n\nA “Chinese firm” is a firm headquartered in China. “China” includes mainland China, Hong Kong, and Macao (but not Taiwan). If the PRC annexes Taiwan, then annexed-Taiwan, including the firms located there, counts as being part of China.\n\n------\n\nWhether a Chinese firm has developed a “frontier” model is defined as in the “[Will there be a frontier Chinese AI model before 2027?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/20879/frontier-chinese-ai-model-by-2027/)” question. In other words, frontier means either i) trained with an amount of compute that's within one order of magnitude of that of the leading AI model in the world at the time, or ii) top 10 in the world, according to [Chatbot Arena Leaderboard's](https://huggingface.co/spaces/lmsys/chatbot-arena-leaderboard) Areno ELO rating.\n\nFor i, we will use Epoch AI's \"[Parameter, Compute and Data Trends in Machine Learning](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1AAIebjNsnJj_uKALHbXNfn3_YsT6sHXtCU0q7OIPuc4/edit#gid=177804471)\" database as the resolution source.", "fine_print": "On the question of, “How will we know that the training compute comes from US IaaS?,” we will turn to credible report(s) and/or Epoch AI's “[Parameters, Compute and Data Trends in Machine Learning](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1AAIebjNsnJj_uKALHbXNfn3_YsT6sHXtCU0q7OIPuc4/edit#gid=177804471)” database.\n\n- The evidence that such a model has been developed—either in the Epoch database or on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard—must be available before January 1, 2025. For example, if a Chinese model that turns out to be frontier is launched in December 2024, but doesn't appear in the Epoch database or on the Arena leaderboard until January 2025, then it does not count for Yes resolution.\n\n- If there's a top Chinese model before 2025 for which there is good reason to suspect that the compute used in the training run comes from US IaaS, but for which there is no credible report available, then a panel of at least three Metaculus admins will do their best to find other sources to help decide if Yes resolution has been triggered. If they cannot decide, then they may rule that the question be Annulled.\n\n------\n\nIn case the Epoch AI database or the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard are discontinued, Metaculus admins will do their best to find alternative resolution sources. If this is not possible, then the question may be Annulled.", "post_id": 20467, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735688336.959811, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.273 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735688336.959811, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.273 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.85, 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.17851330453591147 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.7727395242812621, 0.03808445092208783, 0.0, 0.8153249963609456, 0.0, 0.5898635470599414, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.027714863046207582, 1.3728175091303285, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.7337519574005285, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2479696983050695, 0.3678794411714424, 0.2841245407359965, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06304339233244385, 0.0, 0.3239984154485755, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5267121648213062, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13533528323661267, 0.0, 0.6532944793895881, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1857459851945321, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04978706836786394, 0.0, 0.01831563888873418, 0.21526221595892353, 0.0949648278649378, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 40.43603477891003, "peer_score": 1.760107398124639, "coverage": 0.9994223566274231, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9994223566274231, "spot_peer_score": -4.1822319886194474, "spot_baseline_score": -5.889368905356857, "baseline_archived_score": 40.43603477891003, "peer_archived_score": 1.760107398124639, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -4.1822319886194474, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -5.889368905356857 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289075.951189, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289075.951189, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8788956403058024, 0.12110435969419767 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 51, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Presently, there is nothing to stop Chinese AI developers from carrying out training runs using US [cloud compute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cloud_computing)/infrastructure-as-a-service (IaaS), on account of an [export](https://www.bis.doc.gov/index.php/documents/about-bis/newsroom/press-releases/3158-2022-10-07-bis-press-release-advanced-computing-and-semiconductor-manufacturing-controls-final/file) [controls](https://time.com/6324619/us-biden-ai-chips-china/) loophole: While Chinese AI developers are restricted from physically buying many types of cutting edge AI chips, and the machines used to manufacture them, they are not currently restricted from buying [cloud compute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cloud_computing) provided by US IaaS firms who possess the exact same chips that are physically export controlled.\n\nChinese AI developers have not yet made use of this loophole to carry out a frontier AI model training run. However, as they become increasingly hamstrung by physical export controls, the loophole might present an increasingly attractive path forward." }, { "id": 20466, "title": "If at least one frontier AI model has been trained by a Chinese firm before 2027, will a Chinese frontier AI model have been trained using primarily Chinese AI chips?", "short_title": "Chinese Model Chinese Chips", "url_title": "Chinese Model Chinese Chips", "slug": "chinese-model-chinese-chips", "author_id": 119005, "author_username": "will_aldred", "coauthors": [ { "id": 142588, "username": "fist" } ], "created_at": "2023-12-08T15:02:45.233365Z", "published_at": "2024-01-11T18:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-11T03:27:53.751892Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-01-11T18:00:00Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-01-11T18:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 41, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2784, "type": "tournament", "name": "Chinese AI Chips", "slug": "chinese-ai-chips", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/cac-new_1.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-12-06T12:00:33Z", "close_date": "2033-01-02T23:59:33Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2033-01-01T11:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-28T16:30:32.190353Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-18T12:58:43.646361Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2784, "type": "tournament", "name": "Chinese AI Chips", "slug": "chinese-ai-chips", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/cac-new_1.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-12-06T12:00:33Z", "close_date": "2033-01-02T23:59:33Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2033-01-01T11:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-28T16:30:32.190353Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-18T12:58:43.646361Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2343, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI in China", "slug": "ai-in-china", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/ai-china.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-18T12:58:43.739351Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ] }, "question": { "id": 20466, "title": "If at least one frontier AI model has been trained by a Chinese firm before 2027, will a Chinese frontier AI model have been trained using primarily Chinese AI chips?", "created_at": "2023-12-08T15:02:45.233365Z", "open_time": "2024-01-11T18:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-01-14T18:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-01-14T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The Chinese government is committed to building a strong domestic AI chip supply chain: they have made this a national priority and invested many billions of dollars. However, this is an ambitious target and, to date, Chinese firms that use AI chips have continued to buy these chips from [incumbents](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/21/technology/nvidia-ai-chips-gpu.html) [like Nvidia](https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/10/nvidia-will-reportedly-sell-new-chips-to-china-that-still-meet-us-rules.html#:~:text=In%20the%20near%20term%2C%20Chinese,chips%2C%20while%20searching%20for%20replacements.&text=Companies%20in%20China%20had%20then,last%20month%20with%20new%20restrictions.), and not from Chinese companies.\n\nIf a Chinese chip designer-manufacturer becomes competitive enough at the high end that Chinese labs start using their chips in frontier model training runs, then this will be a strong signal that the Chinese government has hit its target, and that Chinese efforts to build frontier AI can no longer be hamstrung by [export](https://www.csis.org/analysis/choking-chinas-access-future-ai) [controls](https://www.reuters.com/technology/upcoming-us-rules-ai-chip-exports-aim-stop-workarounds-us-official-2023-10-15/).", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2027, a [frontier Chinese AI model](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/20879/frontier-chinese-ai-model-by-2027/) has more than 50% of its training compute provided by AI chips that were both designed and fabricated by Chinese firms.\n\nIf there is no frontier Chinese AI model by 2027, then this question will be **Annulled**. If there is at least one frontier Chinese AI model by 2027, but none of these models have more than 50% of their training compute provided by chips designed and fabricated by Chinese firms, then the question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "On the question of, “How will we know that the chips were designed and fabricated by Chinese firms?,” we will turn to credible report(s) and/or Epoch AI's “[Parameter, Compute and Data Trends in Machine Learning](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1AAIebjNsnJj_uKALHbXNfn3_YsT6sHXtCU0q7OIPuc4/edit#gid=177804471)” database.\n\n- One example of the type of article on this topic that would count as a credible report: [Reuters (2023)](https://www.reuters.com/technology/baidu-placed-ai-chip-order-huawei-shift-away-nvidia-sources-2023-11-07/#:~:text=Baidu%20ordered%201%2C600%20of%20Huawei,about%201%2C000%20chips%2C%20to%20Baidu.) who reported Baidu ordering 1,600 of Huawei's 910B Ascend AI chips.\n\n- The admins may wait for additional confirmation from credible sources before resolving if the credibility of the initial report is in doubt.\n\n- If it's ambiguous whether a report counts, for example, because given the amount of compute estimated to have been used in the training, and given the number of chips reported to be possessed by the Chinese lab (and therefore the compute they possess that comes from Chinese chips), it's unclear whether or not the 50% threshold is reached, then a panel of at least three Metaculus admins will make a ruling based on the specifics of the case.\n\n- The evidence that such a model has been developed—either in the Epoch database or on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard—must be available before January 1, 2027. For example, if a Chinese model that turns out to be frontier is launched in December 2026, but doesn't appear in the Epoch database or on the Arena leaderboard until January 2027, then it does not count for Yes resolution.\n\n- If there's a top Chinese model before 2027 for which there is good reason to suspect that a substantial fraction of the chips used in the training run were Chinese-designed and fabricated, but for which there is no credible report available, then a panel of at least three Metaculus admins will do their best to find other sources to help decide if Yes resolution has been triggered. If they cannot decide, then they may rule that the question be Annulled.\n\n------\n\nA “Chinese firm” is a firm headquartered in China. “China” includes mainland China, Hong Kong, and Macao (but not Taiwan). If the PRC annexes Taiwan, then annexed-Taiwan, including the firms located there and the chips being produced there, counts as being part of China.", "post_id": 20466, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762831663.162453, "end_time": 1763833384.088, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.77 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.84 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762831663.162453, "end_time": 1763833384.088, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.77 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.84 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.19999999999999996, 0.8 ], "means": [ 0.799238322107877 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05261861201859691, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.47078787023876, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5394303752836035, 0.0, 0.03477352548891289, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2164335258165257, 0.0, 1.0, 0.2569435305951722, 0.22047390037421497, 1.00065851307427, 0.0, 1.2989357022340968, 0.0, 0.3526517851691326, 0.09452424244796935, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7899439243127377, 0.7954311126564769, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11969230358260687 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287335.544922, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287335.544922, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6049661619476796, 0.3950338380523204 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 107, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The Chinese government is committed to building a strong domestic AI chip supply chain: they have made this a national priority and invested many billions of dollars. However, this is an ambitious target and, to date, Chinese firms that use AI chips have continued to buy these chips from [incumbents](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/21/technology/nvidia-ai-chips-gpu.html) [like Nvidia](https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/10/nvidia-will-reportedly-sell-new-chips-to-china-that-still-meet-us-rules.html#:~:text=In%20the%20near%20term%2C%20Chinese,chips%2C%20while%20searching%20for%20replacements.&text=Companies%20in%20China%20had%20then,last%20month%20with%20new%20restrictions.), and not from Chinese companies.\n\nIf a Chinese chip designer-manufacturer becomes competitive enough at the high end that Chinese labs start using their chips in frontier model training runs, then this will be a strong signal that the Chinese government has hit its target, and that Chinese efforts to build frontier AI can no longer be hamstrung by [export](https://www.csis.org/analysis/choking-chinas-access-future-ai) [controls](https://www.reuters.com/technology/upcoming-us-rules-ai-chip-exports-aim-stop-workarounds-us-official-2023-10-15/)." }, { "id": 20461, "title": "Will a Chinese firm make a large order of U.S. or U.S.-allied AI chips before 2027?", "short_title": "Large Chinese Order of US AI Chips", "url_title": "Large Chinese Order of US AI Chips", "slug": "large-chinese-order-of-us-ai-chips", "author_id": 119005, "author_username": "will_aldred", "coauthors": [ { "id": 142588, "username": "fist" } ], "created_at": "2023-12-08T14:10:53.583095Z", "published_at": "2024-01-11T18:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:54.704740Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-01-11T18:00:00Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-05-23T04:01:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-05-23T04:01:00Z", "open_time": 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"question": { "id": 20461, "title": "Will a Chinese firm make a large order of U.S. or U.S.-allied AI chips before 2027?", "created_at": "2023-12-08T14:10:53.583095Z", "open_time": "2024-01-11T18:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-01-14T18:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-01-14T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-05-23T04:01:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-11-25T09:37:56.655525Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-05-23T04:01:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The Chinese government is committed to building a strong domestic AI chip supply chain: they have made this a national priority and invested many billions of dollars. However, this is an ambitious target and, to date, Chinese firms that use AI chips have continued to buy these chips from [incumbents](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/21/technology/nvidia-ai-chips-gpu.html) [like Nvidia](https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/10/nvidia-will-reportedly-sell-new-chips-to-china-that-still-meet-us-rules.html#:~:text=In%20the%20near%20term%2C%20Chinese,chips%2C%20while%20searching%20for%20replacements.&text=Companies%20in%20China%20had%20then,last%20month%20with%20new%20restrictions.), and not from Chinese companies.\n\nIf a Chinese chip designer-manufacturer fails to become competitive enough at the high end for Chinese firms to start buying their chips in bulk, then this will be a strong signal that the Chinese government has failed to hit its target, and that Chinese efforts to build frontier AI will continue to be hamstrung by [export](https://www.csis.org/analysis/choking-chinas-access-future-ai) [controls](https://www.reuters.com/technology/upcoming-us-rules-ai-chip-exports-aim-stop-workarounds-us-official-2023-10-15/).\n\nCurrently, the leading AI labs in China are housed at the big tech companies: Baidu, Alibaba, Tencent, and Xiaomi. Meanwhile, [it's believed](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/aoBxSba4CsEAtHqRy/largest-ai-model-in-2-years-from-usd10b#Is_100_000_chips_a_lot_:~:text=It%E2%80%99s%20estimated%20that%20the%20largest%20final%20training%20run%20as%20of%20now%20(GPT4)%20was%20about%20%2450M%20based%20on%C2%A0calculations%20from%20epoch%20using%2010%2C000%2D25%2C000%20A100%20GPUs%20for%202%2D6%20months.) that the largest AI model training run to date, that of OpenAI's GPT-4, used between 10 and 25 thousand chips.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if a Chinese-headquartered firm orders >20,000 U.S.- or U.S.-allied-designed and fabricated AI chips before January 1, 2027, based on a credible report. It resolves as **No** otherwise.", "fine_print": "One example of a past article on this topic that would count as a credible report: [Reuters (2023)](https://www.reuters.com/technology/baidu-placed-ai-chip-order-huawei-shift-away-nvidia-sources-2023-11-07/#:~:text=Baidu%20ordered%201%2C600%20of%20Huawei,about%201%2C000%20chips%2C%20to%20Baidu.) who reported Baidu ordering 1,600 of Huawei's 910B Ascend AI chips.\n\nThe admins may wait for additional confirmation from credible sources before resolving if the credibility of the initial report is in doubt.\n\nThe report can refer to multiple orders, but they must occur within a one-year timespan. For example, a report that says something like \"Chinese firm X has ordered 20,000 chips this year,\" and which references several different orders, counts for Yes resolution. Additionally, multiple reports can be added up to trigger Yes resolution. For example, if there's a report in September 2025 that Chinese firm X has ordered 10,000 U.S.-fabricated chips, and then a report in August 2026 saying that this same firm that has ordered a further 10,000 chips, then this counts for Yes resolution. However, the different reports to be added up must occur within a one-year timespan.\n\nIf it's ambiguous whether a report counts, for example, because it says something like, “Baidu has ordered between 15,000 and 25,000 chips,” then a panel of at least 3 Metaculus admins will make a ruling based on the specifics of the case.\n\nU.S.-allied means [NATO members](https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/united-states-allies) plus [non-NATO allies](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Major_non-NATO_ally#List_of_MNNAs).\n\nA “Chinese firm” is a firm headquartered in China. “China” includes mainland China, Hong Kong, and Macao (but not Taiwan). If the PRC annexes Taiwan, then annexed-Taiwan, including the chips being produced there, counts as being part of China.", "post_id": 20461, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1732510075.2763, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2205635309 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1732510075.2763, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2205635309 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5, 0.5 ], "means": [ 0.4975018573009445 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.04289084712097685, 0.0, 0.0, 0.250282548042939, 0.2708582093916846, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3190127781780022, 0.32144168497052106, 0.10829599059260063, 0.0, 0.26077713707599026, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.44816710576384877, 0.0, 0.49919970777631545, 0.0, 0.053094864755261, 0.761419003562789, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5546969869327895, 0.06460822876323534, 0.0, 0.22042859672213486, 0.0, 0.033872059528572265, 0.0, 0.35834256537117526, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9105903213533636, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01885548841701457, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7511534702699268, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6803385023255489, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3554532826593566 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -11.330470453925617, "peer_score": 4.001337235795635, "coverage": 0.12201078388534901, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9999604082938737, "spot_peer_score": 8.870786200684229, "baseline_archived_score": -11.330470453925617, "peer_archived_score": 4.001337235795635, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 8.870786200684229 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728286893.014562, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728286893.014562, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.2150657632198344, 0.7849342367801656 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 31, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The Chinese government is committed to building a strong domestic AI chip supply chain: they have made this a national priority and invested many billions of dollars. However, this is an ambitious target and, to date, Chinese firms that use AI chips have continued to buy these chips from [incumbents](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/21/technology/nvidia-ai-chips-gpu.html) [like Nvidia](https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/10/nvidia-will-reportedly-sell-new-chips-to-china-that-still-meet-us-rules.html#:~:text=In%20the%20near%20term%2C%20Chinese,chips%2C%20while%20searching%20for%20replacements.&text=Companies%20in%20China%20had%20then,last%20month%20with%20new%20restrictions.), and not from Chinese companies.\n\nIf a Chinese chip designer-manufacturer fails to become competitive enough at the high end for Chinese firms to start buying their chips in bulk, then this will be a strong signal that the Chinese government has failed to hit its target, and that Chinese efforts to build frontier AI will continue to be hamstrung by [export](https://www.csis.org/analysis/choking-chinas-access-future-ai) [controls](https://www.reuters.com/technology/upcoming-us-rules-ai-chip-exports-aim-stop-workarounds-us-official-2023-10-15/).\n\nCurrently, the leading AI labs in China are housed at the big tech companies: Baidu, Alibaba, Tencent, and Xiaomi. Meanwhile, [it's believed](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/aoBxSba4CsEAtHqRy/largest-ai-model-in-2-years-from-usd10b#Is_100_000_chips_a_lot_:~:text=It%E2%80%99s%20estimated%20that%20the%20largest%20final%20training%20run%20as%20of%20now%20(GPT4)%20was%20about%20%2450M%20based%20on%C2%A0calculations%20from%20epoch%20using%2010%2C000%2D25%2C000%20A100%20GPUs%20for%202%2D6%20months.) that the largest AI model training run to date, that of OpenAI's GPT-4, used between 10 and 25 thousand chips." }, { "id": 20460, "title": "Will a Chinese firm make a large order of domestic AI chips before 2027?", "short_title": "Large Domestic Order Chinese AI Chips", "url_title": "Large Domestic Order Chinese AI Chips", "slug": "large-domestic-order-chinese-ai-chips", "author_id": 119005, "author_username": "will_aldred", "coauthors": [ { "id": 142588, "username": "fist" } ], "created_at": "2023-12-08T12:46:42.430224Z", "published_at": "2024-01-11T18:00:00Z", "edited_at": 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"question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The Chinese government is committed to building a strong domestic AI chip supply chain: they have made this a national priority and invested many billions of dollars. However, this is an ambitious target and, to date, Chinese firms that use AI chips have continued to buy these chips from [incumbents](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/21/technology/nvidia-ai-chips-gpu.html) [like Nvidia](https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/10/nvidia-will-reportedly-sell-new-chips-to-china-that-still-meet-us-rules.html#:~:text=In%20the%20near%20term%2C%20Chinese,chips%2C%20while%20searching%20for%20replacements.&text=Companies%20in%20China%20had%20then,last%20month%20with%20new%20restrictions.), and not from Chinese companies.\n\nIf a Chinese chip designer-manufacturer becomes competitive enough at the high end that Chinese firms start buying their chips in bulk, then this will be a strong signal that the Chinese government has hit its target, and that Chinese efforts to build frontier AI can no longer be hamstrung by [export](https://www.csis.org/analysis/choking-chinas-access-future-ai) [controls](https://www.reuters.com/technology/upcoming-us-rules-ai-chip-exports-aim-stop-workarounds-us-official-2023-10-15/).\n\nCurrently, the leading AI labs in China are housed at the big tech companies: Baidu, Alibaba, Tencent, and Xiaomi. Meanwhile, [it's believed](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/aoBxSba4CsEAtHqRy/largest-ai-model-in-2-years-from-usd10b#Is_100_000_chips_a_lot_:~:text=It%E2%80%99s%20estimated%20that%20the%20largest%20final%20training%20run%20as%20of%20now%20(GPT4)%20was%20about%20%2450M%20based%20on%C2%A0calculations%20from%20epoch%20using%2010%2C000%2D25%2C000%20A100%20GPUs%20for%202%2D6%20months.) that the largest AI model training run to date, that of OpenAI's GPT-4, used between 10 and 25 thousand chips.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if a Chinese-headquartered firm orders >20,000 domestically designed and fabricated AI chips before January 1, 2027, based on a credible report. It resolves as **No** otherwise.", "fine_print": "One example of a past article on this topic that would count as a credible report: [Reuters (2023)](https://www.reuters.com/technology/baidu-placed-ai-chip-order-huawei-shift-away-nvidia-sources-2023-11-07/#:~:text=Baidu%20ordered%201%2C600%20of%20Huawei,about%201%2C000%20chips%2C%20to%20Baidu.) who reported Baidu ordering 1,600 of Huawei's 910B Ascend AI chips.\n\nThe admins may wait for additional confirmation from credible sources before resolving if the credibility of the initial report is in doubt.\n\nThe report can refer to multiple orders, but they must occur within a one-year timespan. For example, a report that says something like \"Chinese firm X has ordered 20,000 chips this year,\" and which references several different orders, counts for Yes resolution. Additionally, multiple reports can be added up to trigger Yes resolution. For example, if there's a report in September 2025 that Chinese firm X has ordered 10,000 domestically-produced chips, and then a report in August 2026 saying that this same firm that has ordered a further 10,000 chips, then this counts for Yes resolution. However, the different reports to be added up must occur within a one-year timespan.\n\nIf it's ambiguous whether a report counts, for example, because it says something like, “Baidu has ordered between 15,000 and 25,000 chips,” then a panel of at least 3 Metaculus admins will make a ruling based on the specifics of the case.\n\nSituations where a >20,000 domestic order of chips happens on account of stolen designs, or designs being bought from non-Chinese design firms, are included (i.e., can trigger Yes resolution). In other words, it counts as domestically designed if the design is attributed to a Chinese firm or marketed by a Chinese firm, even if there are reports that the design was stolen, or in cases where the Chinese firm purchased the rights to redistribute a foreign design. (Note to forecasters: This might seem to contradict the “domestically designed” spirit of the question. The reason bought or stolen designs are included is that the AI policy decision-maker who commissioned this question is interested in whether or not what China is likely to do can be influenced through U.S. export controls. China stealing designs cannot be influenced through export controls. And China buying designs (from non-U.S. countries, the most likely candidate being Taiwan) likewise cannot be easily influenced through export controls.)\n\nA “Chinese firm” is a firm headquartered in China. “China” includes mainland China, Hong Kong, and Macao (but not Taiwan). If the PRC annexes Taiwan, then annexed-Taiwan, including the firms located there and the chips being produced there, counts as being part of China.", "post_id": 20460, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762993130.496, "end_time": 1764506819.408, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.998 ], "centers": [ 0.999 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762993130.496, "end_time": 1764506819.408, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.998 ], "centers": [ 0.999 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.0010000000000000009, 0.999 ], "means": [ 0.9925277569735131 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10352427088835169, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04978706836786394, 0.5802467448602566, 0.0, 0.17136970778169644, 5.628314157339955 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287605.424132, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 38, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287605.424132, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 38, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.06513532555641377, 0.9348646744435862 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 133, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The Chinese government is committed to building a strong domestic AI chip supply chain: they have made this a national priority and invested many billions of dollars. However, this is an ambitious target and, to date, Chinese firms that use AI chips have continued to buy these chips from [incumbents](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/21/technology/nvidia-ai-chips-gpu.html) [like Nvidia](https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/10/nvidia-will-reportedly-sell-new-chips-to-china-that-still-meet-us-rules.html#:~:text=In%20the%20near%20term%2C%20Chinese,chips%2C%20while%20searching%20for%20replacements.&text=Companies%20in%20China%20had%20then,last%20month%20with%20new%20restrictions.), and not from Chinese companies.\n\nIf a Chinese chip designer-manufacturer becomes competitive enough at the high end that Chinese firms start buying their chips in bulk, then this will be a strong signal that the Chinese government has hit its target, and that Chinese efforts to build frontier AI can no longer be hamstrung by [export](https://www.csis.org/analysis/choking-chinas-access-future-ai) [controls](https://www.reuters.com/technology/upcoming-us-rules-ai-chip-exports-aim-stop-workarounds-us-official-2023-10-15/).\n\nCurrently, the leading AI labs in China are housed at the big tech companies: Baidu, Alibaba, Tencent, and Xiaomi. Meanwhile, [it's believed](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/aoBxSba4CsEAtHqRy/largest-ai-model-in-2-years-from-usd10b#Is_100_000_chips_a_lot_:~:text=It%E2%80%99s%20estimated%20that%20the%20largest%20final%20training%20run%20as%20of%20now%20(GPT4)%20was%20about%20%2450M%20based%20on%C2%A0calculations%20from%20epoch%20using%2010%2C000%2D25%2C000%20A100%20GPUs%20for%202%2D6%20months.) that the largest AI model training run to date, that of OpenAI's GPT-4, used between 10 and 25 thousand chips." }, { "id": 20406, "title": "Will Trump win the 2024 presidential election and retain supreme executive power past 2028?", "short_title": "Trump in power beyond 2028?", "url_title": "Trump in power beyond 2028?", "slug": "trump-in-power-beyond-2028", "author_id": 160799, "author_username": "metaweta", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-12-06T15:54:26.722236Z", "published_at": "2023-12-18T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-17T09:47:07.384682Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-12-18T22:00:00Z", "comment_count": 75, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-01-31T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-02-01T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-12-18T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 173, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 20406, "title": "Will Trump win the 2024 presidential election and retain supreme executive power past 2028?", "created_at": "2023-12-06T15:54:26.722236Z", "open_time": "2023-12-18T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-12-20T00:14:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-12-20T00:14:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-02-01T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-01-31T19:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-01-31T19:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "### Scope\n\nThis is the question of whether Trump will hold supreme executive power in the United States rather than a specific political office. At the moment, the President is granted that power by the constitution. However, Caesar and Napoleon both created the role of Emperor for themselves, and Hitler created the role of Führer. If such a role were to be created in the United States, its occupant would have supreme executive power even if the position was not called \"President\".\n\n### Background\n\nRobert Kagan [recently wrote an article](https://web.archive.org/web/20231201202312/https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/11/30/trump-dictator-2024-election-robert-kagan/) noting similarities to pre-WWII Germany in popular sentiment and political speech, worrying that Trump would become a dictator. In April, the movie studio A24 is releasing the movie \"[Civil War](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aDyQxtg0V2w)\", featuring a three-term US President.\n\nTrump has said that if elected, he'll be [a dictator \"only on day one\"](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/dec/06/donald-trump-sean-hannity-dictator-day-one-response-iowa-town-hall) in order to close the southern border and expand oil drilling.\n\n[In 2020, he said](https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/18/politics/donald-trump-third-term-2024/index.html), \"We are going to win four more years, and then after that, we’ll go for another four years because they spied on my campaign. We should get a redo of four years.\"\n\nHowever, more recently, [Trump responded to DeSantis' statement](https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4208782-trump-rules-out-seeking-a-third-white-house-term-if-he-wins-reelection/) that people should vote for DeSantis because he's elegible for eight years in the White House, unlike Trump: \"When somebody says eight years, we need eight years, no. In six months to a year, many of the problems, almost all of the problems that you and I have just spoken about will be solved. Anybody that says they need eight years, you don’t want that person.\" One might read that as saying Trump wouldn't try to obtain a third term, but one also might read that as simply downplaying his opponent's abilities.\n\nThe [22nd Amendment](https://constitution.congress.gov/constitution/amendment-22/) prohibits people from being elected to the office of President more than twice. The [12th Amendment](https://constitution.congress.gov/constitution/amendment-12/) says, \"no person constitutionally ineligible to\nthe office of President shall be eligible to that of Vice-President of the United States.\" One might think that a twice-elected president would be \"ineligible\" for the role of Vice President, but because \"eligibility\" refers to [Article II, Section 1, Clause 5](https://constitution.congress.gov/browse/article-2/#II_S1_C5), which specifically address whether a person is\n\"eligible to the Office of the President,\" [it has been argued](https://digitalcommons.law.uga.edu/fac_artchop/1012/) that a twice-elected president could subsequently run as Vice President and then become President if the President steps down, is removed from power, or dies.", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves **Yes** if Donald Trump is elected President of the United States in the 2024 Presidential Election, and is still exercising supreme executive power in the United States on January 21, 2029.\n\nThe question resolves **No** if Trump does not win the 2024 election, or if Trump is not exercising supreme executive power in the United States on January 21, 2029.\n\nThe term \"supreme executive power,\" for the purposes of this question, is defined as any US government office with powers equivalent to or superseding the presidency, including the presidency itself.", "fine_print": "If Trump refuses to abdicate the presidency following the 2028 election, then the question resolves based on who holds *de facto* power over the US military on January 21, 2029, in the opinion of credible reports. If command of the military on that date is disputed, the question resolves Yes.", "post_id": 20406, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763445073.20181, "end_time": 1763600048.018591, "forecaster_count": 92, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.009 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.07 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763445073.20181, "end_time": 1763600048.018591, "forecaster_count": 92, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.009 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.07 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.98, 0.02 ], "means": [ 0.0879001790184952 ], "histogram": [ [ 4.48680212792631, 3.8708990811939143, 1.6379176048346458, 2.458341259545439, 0.25172276300125795, 0.2323996258020863, 0.232654184880343, 0.3818604077260551, 0.08041172864559165, 0.10611903764842559, 0.7678890026562882, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10218279040646944, 0.6527822562352956, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7888941157034584, 0.0, 0.1480038046051576, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004217311577006316, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02134152870342287, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.041232074872413094, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7275703736104373, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0275524712565069, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11355538817762112, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5534061787476363, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289391.276714, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 105, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289391.276714, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 105, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.997831952313174, 0.0021680476868260416 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 24, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 457, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "### Scope\n\nThis is the question of whether Trump will hold supreme executive power in the United States rather than a specific political office. At the moment, the President is granted that power by the constitution. However, Caesar and Napoleon both created the role of Emperor for themselves, and Hitler created the role of Führer. If such a role were to be created in the United States, its occupant would have supreme executive power even if the position was not called \"President\".\n\n### Background\n\nRobert Kagan [recently wrote an article](https://web.archive.org/web/20231201202312/https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/11/30/trump-dictator-2024-election-robert-kagan/) noting similarities to pre-WWII Germany in popular sentiment and political speech, worrying that Trump would become a dictator. In April, the movie studio A24 is releasing the movie \"[Civil War](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aDyQxtg0V2w)\", featuring a three-term US President.\n\nTrump has said that if elected, he'll be [a dictator \"only on day one\"](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/dec/06/donald-trump-sean-hannity-dictator-day-one-response-iowa-town-hall) in order to close the southern border and expand oil drilling.\n\n[In 2020, he said](https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/18/politics/donald-trump-third-term-2024/index.html), \"We are going to win four more years, and then after that, we’ll go for another four years because they spied on my campaign. We should get a redo of four years.\"\n\nHowever, more recently, [Trump responded to DeSantis' statement](https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4208782-trump-rules-out-seeking-a-third-white-house-term-if-he-wins-reelection/) that people should vote for DeSantis because he's elegible for eight years in the White House, unlike Trump: \"When somebody says eight years, we need eight years, no. In six months to a year, many of the problems, almost all of the problems that you and I have just spoken about will be solved. Anybody that says they need eight years, you don’t want that person.\" One might read that as saying Trump wouldn't try to obtain a third term, but one also might read that as simply downplaying his opponent's abilities.\n\nThe [22nd Amendment](https://constitution.congress.gov/constitution/amendment-22/) prohibits people from being elected to the office of President more than twice. The [12th Amendment](https://constitution.congress.gov/constitution/amendment-12/) says, \"no person constitutionally ineligible to\nthe office of President shall be eligible to that of Vice-President of the United States.\" One might think that a twice-elected president would be \"ineligible\" for the role of Vice President, but because \"eligibility\" refers to [Article II, Section 1, Clause 5](https://constitution.congress.gov/browse/article-2/#II_S1_C5), which specifically address whether a person is\n\"eligible to the Office of the President,\" [it has been argued](https://digitalcommons.law.uga.edu/fac_artchop/1012/) that a twice-elected president could subsequently run as Vice President and then become President if the President steps down, is removed from power, or dies." } ] }
