Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=3300
{ "count": 6366, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=3320", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=3280", "results": [ { "id": 20383, "title": "Will the German Train Drivers' Union (GDL) go on strike again before January 1, 2024?", "short_title": "GDL Strike Before 2024?", "url_title": "GDL Strike Before 2024?", "slug": "gdl-strike-before-2024", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-12-05T09:21:23.192254Z", "published_at": "2023-12-06T16:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:51.444010Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-12-06T16:00:00Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-07T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-12-07T17:00:00Z", "open_time": "2023-12-06T16:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 27, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2654, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q4 2023 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2023q4", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/quarterlycup.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-10-03T15:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-01-04T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-01-05T15:54:55.645171Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2654, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q4 2023 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2023q4", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/quarterlycup.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-10-03T15:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-01-04T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-01-05T15:54:55.645171Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 20383, "title": "Will the German Train Drivers' Union (GDL) go on strike again before January 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2023-12-05T09:21:23.192254Z", "open_time": "2023-12-06T16:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-12-09T04:42:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-12-09T04:42:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-12-07T17:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-12-07T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-07T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [Union of German Train Drivers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gewerkschaft_Deutscher_Lokomotivf%C3%BChrer) (Gewerkschaft Deutscher Lokomotivführer or GDL) represents workers in train companies in Germany. The GDL has been negotiating with the national rail company [Deutsche Bahn](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deutsche_Bahn), and [underwent a \"warning strike\"](https://www.dw.com/en/german-rail-union-warns-of-fresh-strikes-after-talks-fail/a-67542525) in November due to a perceived lack of progress.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, after December 5, 2023, and before January 1, 2024, credible sources report that a German Train Drivers' Union (GDL) strike has begun.", "fine_print": "* An announcement that a strike will take place is not sufficient, the strike must actually begin.\n* Reports that the strike is underway are not strictly necessary. An announcement of a strike combined with an absence of reporting stating that the strike did **not** occur will be sufficient to resolve as **Yes**.\n* There is no requirement on the length of time or the size of the strike, so long as it is a GDL strike according to credible reporting.\n* A \"warning strike\" will be sufficient to resolve as **Yes**.", "post_id": 20383, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1701972665.190046, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "centers": [ 0.96 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1701972665.190046, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "centers": [ 0.96 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.040000000000000036, 0.96 ], "means": [ 0.8800726635884021 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11123030328809189, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03130111324493288, 0.5414109223414629, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20380305925474834, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01505338459998825, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5754832829804437, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13461295092244627, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13082761184065436, 0.0, 0.17692120631776415, 0.0, 0.15266220141285267, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.43289785514522633, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3459766825483706, 0.9363950450174452, 0.9074353916842878, 0.06414156534256711, 3.147072066986203 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.830837312893406, "coverage": 0.03937356902984349, "baseline_score": 1.8629249780609118, "spot_peer_score": 22.326460844816594, "peer_archived_score": 0.830837312893406, "baseline_archived_score": 1.8629249780609118, "spot_peer_archived_score": 22.326460844816594 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1701968017.413838, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1701968017.413838, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.1166236888678267, 0.8833763111321733 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 48, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [Union of German Train Drivers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gewerkschaft_Deutscher_Lokomotivf%C3%BChrer) (Gewerkschaft Deutscher Lokomotivführer or GDL) represents workers in train companies in Germany. The GDL has been negotiating with the national rail company [Deutsche Bahn](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deutsche_Bahn), and [underwent a \"warning strike\"](https://www.dw.com/en/german-rail-union-warns-of-fresh-strikes-after-talks-fail/a-67542525) in November due to a perceived lack of progress." }, { "id": 20378, "title": "If Venezuela invades Guyana before 2030, will Brazil respond with military forces?", "short_title": "Brazil response if Venezuela invades Guyana", "url_title": "Brazil response if Venezuela invades Guyana", "slug": "brazil-response-if-venezuela-invades-guyana", "author_id": 114911, "author_username": "Joker", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-12-04T14:08:06.035052Z", "published_at": "2023-12-12T17:59:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-02T09:39:30.112482Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-12-12T17:59:00Z", "comment_count": 9, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-03T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-12-12T17:59:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 31, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 20378, "title": "If Venezuela invades Guyana before 2030, will Brazil respond with military forces?", "created_at": "2023-12-04T14:08:06.035052Z", "open_time": "2023-12-12T17:59:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-12-15T17:59:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-12-15T17:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-03T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-01-01T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Related questions on Metaculus: \n\n[Will Venezuela invade Guyana before these dates?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/20212/venezuela-to-invade-guyana/)\n[Will there be a civil war in Venezuela before 2050?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/15650/venezualan-civil-war/)\n[If Venezuela invades Guyana before 2030, will the United States respond with military forces?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/20377/us-response-if-venezuela-invades-guyana-2030/)\n\nWith tensions on the Venezuela-Guyana border at a boiling point, [it has been speculated by some that Brazil would become militarily involved if an armed conflict breaks out in the region.](https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/brazil-increases-northern-border-military-presence-amid-venezuela-guyana-spat-2023-11-29/) This is notable as Brazil has not fought any of its neighbors since the [Paraguayan War.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paraguayan_War)\n\nThis question asks: will Brazil fight on Guyana's side if Guyana is invaded by Venezuela?", "resolution_criteria": "If Venezuela does not launch a full-scale invasion of Guyana before January 1, 2030, then this question will resolve as Ambiguous. If Venezuela does invade Guyana, this question will resolve as Yes if Brazil responds with military forces within 365 days from of the beginning of the Venezuelan invasion.\n\nIn line with our [main question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/20212/venezuela-to-invade-guyana/), Venezuela will be considered to have launched an invasion of Guyana if that question resolves positive at any time.\n\nBrazil will be considered to have responded with military forces if there is an offensive physical attack on Venezuelan infrastructure, ships, military personnel, or civilians, in direct retaliation to the full-scale invasion, and this attack is ordered by the Brazilian government or Brazilian military leadership. Cyberattacks will not be considered offensive physical attacks, but covert operations to e.g. assassinate Venezuelan nationals, will count", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 20378, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763123166.50737, "end_time": 1765375229.019066, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.08 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763123166.50737, "end_time": 1765375229.019066, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.08 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8, 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.21420392950916256 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.62366871627356, 0.13230489461434952, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4203848492435676, 0.0, 0.2294348988188281, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1932619357323092, 0.0, 0.3148965317832342, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7053717364567356, 1.4607792757624902, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8929389982591724, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04698521070567398, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19128230802308263, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06456484912809458, 0.5492768913479766, 0.0, 0.16099456957167682, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.48167841893631047, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728290037.369804, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728290037.369804, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8860307943386044, 0.11396920566139558 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 81, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Related questions on Metaculus: \n\n[Will Venezuela invade Guyana before these dates?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/20212/venezuela-to-invade-guyana/)\n[Will there be a civil war in Venezuela before 2050?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/15650/venezualan-civil-war/)\n[If Venezuela invades Guyana before 2030, will the United States respond with military forces?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/20377/us-response-if-venezuela-invades-guyana-2030/)\n\nWith tensions on the Venezuela-Guyana border at a boiling point, [it has been speculated by some that Brazil would become militarily involved if an armed conflict breaks out in the region.](https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/brazil-increases-northern-border-military-presence-amid-venezuela-guyana-spat-2023-11-29/) This is notable as Brazil has not fought any of its neighbors since the [Paraguayan War.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paraguayan_War)\n\nThis question asks: will Brazil fight on Guyana's side if Guyana is invaded by Venezuela?" }, { "id": 20377, "title": "If Venezuela invades Guyana before 2030, will the United States respond with military forces?", "short_title": "US response if Venezuela invades Guyana 2030", "url_title": "US response if Venezuela invades Guyana 2030", "slug": "us-response-if-venezuela-invades-guyana-2030", "author_id": 114911, "author_username": "Joker", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-12-04T14:07:53.419157Z", "published_at": "2023-12-12T17:58:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-18T08:10:07.150365Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-12-12T17:58:00Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-03T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-12-12T17:58:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 47, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 20377, "title": "If Venezuela invades Guyana before 2030, will the United States respond with military forces?", "created_at": "2023-12-04T14:07:53.419157Z", "open_time": "2023-12-12T17:58:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-12-15T17:58:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-12-15T17:58:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-03T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-01-01T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Related questions on Metaculus: \n\n[Will Venezuela invade Guyana before these dates?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/20212/venezuela-to-invade-guyana/)\n[Will there be a civil war in Venezuela before 2050?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/15650/venezualan-civil-war/)\n[If Venezuela invades Guyana before 2030, will Brazil respond with military forces?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/20378/brazil-response-if-venezuela-invades-guyana/)\n\nWith tensions on the Venezuela-Guyana border at a boiling point, [it has been speculated by some that the United States would become militarily involved if an armed conflict breaks out in the region.](https://time.com/5512005/venezuela-us-intervention-history-latin-america/) [There is historical precedent for this.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_involvement_in_regime_change_in_Latin_America)\n\nThis question asks: will the United States fight on Guyana's side if Guyana is invaded by Venezuela?", "resolution_criteria": "If Venezuela does not launch a full-scale invasion of Guyana before January 1, 2030, then this question will resolve as Ambiguous. If Venezuela does invade Guyana, this question will resolve as Yes if the United States responds with military forces within 365 days from of the beginning of the Venezuelan invasion.\n\nIn line with our [main question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/20212/venezuela-to-invade-guyana/), Venezuela will be considered to have launched an invasion of Guyana if that question resolves positive at any time.\n\nThe United States will be considered to have responded with military forces if there is an offensive physical attack on Venezuelan infrastructure, ships, military personnel, or civilians, in direct retaliation to the full-scale invasion, and this attack is ordered by the American government or American military leadership. Cyberattacks will not be considered offensive physical attacks, but covert operations to e.g. assassinate Venezuelan nationals, will count", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 20377, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763453396.45967, "end_time": 1763949883.288448, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.71 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763453396.45967, "end_time": 1763949883.288448, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.71 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.19999999999999996, 0.8 ], "means": [ 0.7943361537851935 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03808445092208783, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11399817092273035, 0.0, 0.0, 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5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 122, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Related questions on Metaculus: \n\n[Will Venezuela invade Guyana before these dates?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/20212/venezuela-to-invade-guyana/)\n[Will there be a civil war in Venezuela before 2050?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/15650/venezualan-civil-war/)\n[If Venezuela invades Guyana before 2030, will Brazil respond with military forces?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/20378/brazil-response-if-venezuela-invades-guyana/)\n\nWith tensions on the Venezuela-Guyana border at a boiling point, [it has been speculated by some that the United States would become militarily involved if an armed conflict breaks out in the region.](https://time.com/5512005/venezuela-us-intervention-history-latin-america/) [There is historical precedent for this.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_involvement_in_regime_change_in_Latin_America)\n\nThis question asks: will the United States fight on Guyana's side if Guyana is invaded by Venezuela?" }, { "id": 20374, "title": "Will state-based conflict between Afghanistan and Pakistan cause at least 1,000 deaths in a single year before 2070?", "short_title": "1000 deaths from Afghani-Pakistani conflict", "url_title": "1000 deaths from Afghani-Pakistani conflict", "slug": "1000-deaths-from-afghani-pakistani-conflict", "author_id": 114911, "author_username": "Joker", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-12-04T02:31:08.875335Z", "published_at": "2023-12-29T20:13:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-10T02:53:12.519612Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-12-29T20:13:00Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2050-01-01T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2050-07-31T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-12-29T20:13:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 26, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 20374, "title": "Will state-based conflict between Afghanistan and Pakistan cause at least 1,000 deaths in a single year before 2070?", "created_at": "2023-12-04T02:31:08.875335Z", "open_time": "2023-12-29T20:13:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-01-01T20:13:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-01-01T20:13:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2050-07-31T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2050-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2050-01-01T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Afghanistan and Pakistan have fought border skirmishes for many decades.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Afghanistan%E2%80%93Pakistan_border_skirmishes#) [Some have suggested](https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/12/15/pakistan-afghanistan-taliban-border-war/) that [war between the two countries](https://www.aa.com.tr/en/asia-pacific/why-are-tensions-rising-between-pakistan-and-afghanistan/2954687) is likely now that the Taliban are back in charge of Afghanistan.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if, for any single calendar year between 2023 and 2069, the [Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP)](https://ucdp.uu.se/encyclopedia) reports at least 1,000 state-based conflict deaths between Afghanistan and Pakistan (specifically, the category \"state-based violence\" occurring between the government of Afghanistan and the government of Pakistan).\n\nFor resolution, any number of smaller conflicts (that may be differentiated by UCDP) will be summed up for as long as the main conflict parties are the government of Afghanistan and the government of Pakistan. The 1,000 deaths need to occur in a single year. We will defer to UCDP's methodology in calculating conflict deaths.", "fine_print": "If either Afghanistan or Pakistan cease to exist as sovereign nations before hostilities begin, this question will resolve as Ambiguous.", "post_id": 20374, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757472782.336493, "end_time": 1783303444.874, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.26 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757472782.336493, "end_time": 1783303444.874, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.26 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.74, 0.26 ], "means": [ 0.38196362189303923 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17610025324642237, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.314326790937948, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23814444671793047, 0.40698478172960956, 0.0, 0.12611610086941633, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.35843923208154005, 1.9648240859628974, 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"means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 69, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Afghanistan and Pakistan have fought border skirmishes for many decades.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Afghanistan%E2%80%93Pakistan_border_skirmishes#) [Some have suggested](https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/12/15/pakistan-afghanistan-taliban-border-war/) that [war between the two countries](https://www.aa.com.tr/en/asia-pacific/why-are-tensions-rising-between-pakistan-and-afghanistan/2954687) is likely now that the Taliban are back in charge of Afghanistan." }, { "id": 20373, "title": "Will armed conflict between the Philippines and the People's Republic of China (PRC) cause at least 100 deaths before 2050?", "short_title": "100 deaths from China-Philippines conflict", "url_title": "100 deaths from China-Philippines conflict", "slug": "100-deaths-from-china-philippines-conflict", "author_id": 114911, "author_username": "Joker", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-12-04T02:16:23.326791Z", "published_at": "2023-12-31T20:16:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-06T06:37:58.007279Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-12-31T20:16:00Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2049-12-31T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2050-07-31T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-12-31T20:16:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", 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People's Republic of China (PRC) cause at least 100 deaths before 2050?", "created_at": "2023-12-04T02:16:23.326791Z", "open_time": "2023-12-31T20:16:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-01-03T20:16:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-01-03T20:16:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2050-07-31T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2049-12-31T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2049-12-31T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Tensions are currently high between the Philippines and China](https://www.foxnews.com/world/philippine-coast-guard-constructs-new-surveillance-base-south-china-sea-monitor-chinese-vessels) after a boat collision in the South China Sea. This is the latest in a [long series of disputes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China%E2%80%93Philippines_relations) between the two countries. 93% of Filipinos are concerned about a military confrontation with China.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if, at any time between January 1, 2021 and January 1, 2050, either of the following occurs:\n\n- There are at least three credible government sources reporting at least one exchange of weapon fire between the national military forces or law enforcement personnel of the Philippines and the People's Republic of China causing a total of at least 100 deaths.\n- There are at least three credible news reports that at least one exchange of weapon fire between the national military forces or law enforcement personnel of the Philippines and the People's Republic of China causing a total of at least 100 deaths.\n\nThese 100 deaths do not have to occur in the same conflict or the same year; it is sufficient for multiple separate events to reach a total of 100 deaths in this period.\n\nThis question will resolve as No otherwise.", "fine_print": "In the context of this question, an armed conflict will be defined as a dispute that concerns a government and/or territory where the use of armed force between two parties, of which at least one is the government of a state, results in an exchange of weapon fire or detonations", "post_id": 20373, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762411067.410695, "end_time": 1783169289.242, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.261 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762411067.410695, "end_time": 1783169289.242, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.261 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.85, 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.2335570029081677 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.030893002561247163, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.280673750788608, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.6670228299060068, 0.0, 0.0, 0.017197143016031723, 0.5608812398816437, 1.668297357590312, 0.0, 0.0, 0.153865828537011, 0.0, 0.2673887142896781, 0.0, 0.8305036517217669, 0.0, 0.0, 0.620502543612061, 0.45529495594735647, 0.0, 0.04842515677234604, 0.0, 0.0, 0.023631498669224205, 0.07073615502467667, 0.3268262380230357, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13357075254608086, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0839758874887769, 0.011364900518339544, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2581744010322857, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11525585627893538, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6850893156161345, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05892591724387544, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09877132838432481, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289934.418278, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289934.418278, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8479474574293822, 0.15205254257061784 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 64, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Tensions are currently high between the Philippines and China](https://www.foxnews.com/world/philippine-coast-guard-constructs-new-surveillance-base-south-china-sea-monitor-chinese-vessels) after a boat collision in the South China Sea. This is the latest in a [long series of disputes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China%E2%80%93Philippines_relations) between the two countries. 93% of Filipinos are concerned about a military confrontation with China." }, { "id": 20372, "title": "Will armed conflict between Vietnam and the People's Republic of China (PRC) cause at least 100 deaths before 2050?", "short_title": "100 deaths from China-Vietnam conflict", "url_title": "100 deaths from China-Vietnam conflict", "slug": "100-deaths-from-china-vietnam-conflict", "author_id": 114911, "author_username": "Joker", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-12-04T02:09:15.995760Z", "published_at": "2023-12-30T20:15:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-11T01:13:16.397712Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-12-30T20:15:00Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2050-01-01T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2050-07-31T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-12-30T20:15:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 20, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 20372, "title": "Will armed conflict between Vietnam and the People's Republic of China (PRC) cause at least 100 deaths before 2050?", "created_at": "2023-12-04T02:09:15.995760Z", "open_time": "2023-12-30T20:15:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-01-02T20:15:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-01-02T20:15:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2050-07-31T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2050-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2050-01-01T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Vietnam and China have historically fought many conflicts against one another](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-Vietnamese_Wars), the latest of which occurred in the 1980s. [Relations remain tense in some areas](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China%E2%80%93Vietnam_relations), and 84% of Vietnamese fear military conflict with China.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if, at any time between January 1, 2021 and January 1, 2050, either of the following occurs:\n\n- There are at least three credible government sources reporting at least one exchange of weapon fire between the national military forces or law enforcement personnel of Vietnam and the People's Republic of China causing a total of at least 100 deaths.\n- There are at least three credible news reports that at least one exchange of weapon fire between the national military forces or law enforcement personnel of Vietnam and the People's Republic of China causing a total of at least 100 deaths.\n\nThese 100 deaths do not have to occur in the same conflict or the same year; it is sufficient for multiple separate events to reach a total of 100 deaths in this period.\n\nThis question will resolve as No otherwise.", "fine_print": "In the context of this question, an armed conflict will be defined as a dispute that concerns a government and/or territory where the use of armed force between two parties, of which at least one is the government of a state, results in an exchange of weapon fire or detonations", "post_id": 20372, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1760145185.802239, "end_time": 1783169342.909, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.0597448833 ], "centers": [ 0.12 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.24 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1760145185.802239, "end_time": 1783169342.909, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.0597448833 ], "centers": [ 0.12 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.24 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.88, 0.12 ], "means": [ 0.18004461097863358 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.6984449301569673, 0.1668302445981351, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3293742995963411, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2917170560840852, 0.0, 0.7730014531560627, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14816789822404922, 0.0, 0.8902452820461484, 0.0, 0.7954311126564769, 0.3526517851691326, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11969230358260687, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4086904201879483, 0.0, 0.05261861201859691, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2164335258165257, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287722.658583, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287722.658583, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.90213307452023, 0.09786692547977009 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 46, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Vietnam and China have historically fought many conflicts against one another](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-Vietnamese_Wars), the latest of which occurred in the 1980s. [Relations remain tense in some areas](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China%E2%80%93Vietnam_relations), and 84% of Vietnamese fear military conflict with China." }, { "id": 20371, "title": "Will state-based conflict between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan cause at least 1,000 deaths in a single year before 2070?", "short_title": "1000 deaths from Kyrgyz-Tajik Conflict", "url_title": "1000 deaths from Kyrgyz-Tajik Conflict", "slug": "1000-deaths-from-kyrgyz-tajik-conflict", "author_id": 114911, "author_username": "Joker", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-12-04T02:01:17.836739Z", "published_at": "2023-12-28T20:12:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-11T01:13:14.414713Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-12-28T20:12:00Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2069-12-31T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2070-07-31T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-12-28T20:12:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 19, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 20371, "title": "Will state-based conflict between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan cause at least 1,000 deaths in a single year before 2070?", "created_at": "2023-12-04T02:01:17.836739Z", "open_time": "2023-12-28T20:12:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-12-31T20:12:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-12-31T20:12:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2070-07-31T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2069-12-31T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2069-12-31T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In 2022, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan fought a [border clash that led to dozens of deaths on both sides.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Kyrgyzstan%E2%80%93Tajikistan_clashes) This was [the second time in as many years](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Kyrgyzstan%E2%80%93Tajikistan_clashes) that the two countries had fought an armed conflict regarding the border. Although a peace deal was signed in late 2022, [there remains fears](https://eurasianet.org/perspectives-kyrgyzstan-and-tajikistan-building-up-for-another-potential-round-of-fighting) about another, potentially larger round of hostilities.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if, for any single calendar year between 2023 and 2069, the [Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP)](https://ucdp.uu.se/encyclopedia) reports at least 1,000 state-based conflict deaths between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan (specifically, the category \"state-based violence\" occurring between the government of Kyrgyzstan and the government of Tajikistan).\n\nFor resolution, any number of smaller conflicts (that may be differentiated by UCDP) will be summed up for as long as the main conflict parties are the government of Kyrgyzstan and the government of Tajikistan. The 1,000 deaths need to occur in a single year. We will defer to UCDP's methodology in calculating conflict deaths.", "fine_print": "If either Kyrgyzstan or Tajikistan cease to exist as sovereign nations before hostilities begin, this question will be Annulled.", "post_id": 20371, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1760145183.580347, "end_time": 1787694281.737, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.0864577442 ], "centers": [ 0.32 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1760145183.580347, "end_time": 1787694281.737, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.0864577442 ], "centers": [ 0.32 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6799999999999999, 0.32 ], "means": [ 0.36748458243558646 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.643784018968424, 0.3394722656914194, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5935248795209733, 0.887332896049865, 0.28862105284580747, 0.24311673443421436, 0.0, 0.5288293908805634, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20252551992505247, 0.0, 0.10617775163122897, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4755244208507132, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05910574656195625, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03906061193493671, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6059345510304436 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289294.297121, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289294.297121, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.840899790092557, 0.15910020990744303 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 43, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In 2022, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan fought a [border clash that led to dozens of deaths on both sides.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Kyrgyzstan%E2%80%93Tajikistan_clashes) This was [the second time in as many years](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Kyrgyzstan%E2%80%93Tajikistan_clashes) that the two countries had fought an armed conflict regarding the border. Although a peace deal was signed in late 2022, [there remains fears](https://eurasianet.org/perspectives-kyrgyzstan-and-tajikistan-building-up-for-another-potential-round-of-fighting) about another, potentially larger round of hostilities." }, { "id": 20370, "title": "Will state-based conflict between Morocco and Algeria cause at least 1,000 deaths in a single year before 2070?", "short_title": "1000 deaths from Morocco-Algeria Conflict", "url_title": "1000 deaths from Morocco-Algeria Conflict", "slug": "1000-deaths-from-morocco-algeria-conflict", "author_id": 114911, "author_username": "Joker", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-12-04T01:37:28.268531Z", "published_at": "2023-12-14T01:02:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-11T01:13:21.249779Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-12-14T01:02:00Z", "comment_count": 10, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2069-12-31T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2070-07-31T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-12-14T01:02:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 19, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 20370, "title": "Will state-based conflict between Morocco and Algeria cause at least 1,000 deaths in a single year before 2070?", "created_at": "2023-12-04T01:37:28.268531Z", "open_time": "2023-12-14T01:02:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-12-17T01:02:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-12-17T01:02:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2070-07-31T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2069-12-31T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2069-12-31T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Relations between Morocco and Algeria](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Algeria%E2%80%93Morocco_relations) have historically been rocky. [A brief war](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sand_War) was fought in the early 1960s over the border delineation, and Morocco has been fighting a [low-intensity conflict](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Western_Sahara_conflict) with the Algeria-backed Sahrawi Republic for control of the Western Sahara since the 1970s. [Political tension in 2021 caused the two countries to break off diplomatic relations,](https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/africa/algeria-breaks-off-diplomatic-ties-with-neighbouring-morocco-1.4655723), leading to [some speculation](https://www.memri.org/reports/always-approaching-never-arriving-war-between-algeria-and-morocco) about a [potential war.](https://politicstoday.org/morocco-algeria-tension-long-history-of-mistrust/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if, for any single calendar year between 2023 and 2069, the [Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP)](https://ucdp.uu.se/encyclopedia) reports at least 1,000 state-based conflict deaths between Morocco and Algeria (specifically, the category \"state-based violence\" occurring between the government of Morocco and the government of Algeria).\n\nFor resolution, any number of smaller conflicts (that may be differentiated by UCDP) will be summed up for as long as the main conflict parties are the government of Morocco and the government of Algeria. The 1,000 deaths need to occur in a single year. We will defer to UCDP's methodology in calculating conflict deaths.", "fine_print": "If either Morocco or Algeria cease to exist as sovereign nations before hostilities begin, this question will resolve as Ambiguous.", "post_id": 20370, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1760145190.372234, "end_time": 1787876199.099, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.47 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1760145190.372234, "end_time": 1787876199.099, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.47 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.7, 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.2974259324883274 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.5288293908805634, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.459076198919707, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6059345510304436, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.28862105284580747, 0.0, 0.08122031490464846, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7500768041511932, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5825890001256337, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03906061193493671, 0.5305774692409481, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7845533632614763, 0.0, 0.0, 0.887332896049865, 0.0, 0.10617775163122897, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16643491542409378, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20252551992505247, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288047.794057, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288047.794057, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7897118522976403, 0.21028814770235965 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 58, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Relations between Morocco and Algeria](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Algeria%E2%80%93Morocco_relations) have historically been rocky. [A brief war](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sand_War) was fought in the early 1960s over the border delineation, and Morocco has been fighting a [low-intensity conflict](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Western_Sahara_conflict) with the Algeria-backed Sahrawi Republic for control of the Western Sahara since the 1970s. [Political tension in 2021 caused the two countries to break off diplomatic relations,](https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/africa/algeria-breaks-off-diplomatic-ties-with-neighbouring-morocco-1.4655723), leading to [some speculation](https://www.memri.org/reports/always-approaching-never-arriving-war-between-algeria-and-morocco) about a [potential war.](https://politicstoday.org/morocco-algeria-tension-long-history-of-mistrust/)" }, { "id": 20360, "title": "Will the Republican Party retain New York's 3rd congressional district (previously held by George Santos) in the special election?", "short_title": "Will GOP Hold Santos' Old Seat?", "url_title": "Will GOP Hold Santos' Old Seat?", "slug": "will-gop-hold-santos-old-seat", "author_id": 114017, "author_username": "Kaleem", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-12-02T18:16:58.809688Z", "published_at": "2024-01-17T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:25.046512Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-01-17T15:30:00Z", "comment_count": 33, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-02-14T02:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-02-14T02:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-02-14T15:16:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-02-14T15:16:00Z", "open_time": "2024-01-17T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 105, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2861, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q1 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q1", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/qc-hires-scaled_1.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-01-08T07:00:53Z", "close_date": "2024-04-09T04:00:53Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-04-03T22:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-01-04T19:09:53.546375Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-22T12:37:37.454166Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2861, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q1 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q1", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/qc-hires-scaled_1.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-01-08T07:00:53Z", "close_date": "2024-04-09T04:00:53Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-04-03T22:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-01-04T19:09:53.546375Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-22T12:37:37.454166Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 20360, "title": "Will the Republican Party retain New York's 3rd congressional district (previously held by George Santos) in the special election?", "created_at": "2023-12-02T18:16:58.809688Z", "open_time": "2024-01-17T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-01-20T09:33:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-01-20T09:33:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-02-14T15:16:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-02-14T15:16:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-02-14T15:16:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-02-14T02:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-02-14T02:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[George Santos was expelled from the US House of Representatives on the 1st of December 2023](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/george-santos-expulsion-congress-ny-house-ethics-committee-rcna127179). His expulsion leaves the position of house representative for New York's 3rd district vacant. [A special election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_New_York%27s_3rd_congressional_district_special_election) will be held to fill the vacancy on the 13th of February 2024.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if credible sources report that a person representing the Republican Party has won the special election for NY's 3rd district.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 20360, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1707875379.816832, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 105, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.22 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1707875379.816832, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 105, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.22 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.7, 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.33181481828944903 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.4740155645913064, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012082479255944946, 0.0, 0.008482710965774019, 0.0, 0.0011330420873293281, 0.1930848597443643, 0.10572110195558654, 0.1272504618501776, 0.08744886206118144, 0.7802256395255287, 0.7488582551662979, 0.0, 0.07685728502643943, 0.0, 1.9166527321978317, 0.1202489218317748, 0.9696572887772589, 1.1994682740585838, 0.046395697939584785, 0.9589839999051433, 0.40298125698923837, 0.0, 0.05896847624112536, 0.0, 1.527300499324206, 0.6815672726795774, 0.0, 0.9258405184231131, 0.0034673139208133137, 2.1055126748676285, 0.0, 0.10895616871081955, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3988497179340921, 0.0, 0.0008378486303897791, 0.0, 0.03730674253219247, 0.23043676176196204, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.5412413231669189, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.642133471314563, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.7320720128253533, 0.00041077660837210574, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7540697483426313, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0004998515243729146, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01899225078371455 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 13.877587060033395, "coverage": 0.9999497423930925, "baseline_score": 44.61101668333452, "spot_peer_score": 11.940219965549847, "peer_archived_score": 13.877587060033395, "baseline_archived_score": 44.61101668333452, "spot_peer_archived_score": 11.940219965549847 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1707875379.84628, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 105, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1707875379.84628, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 105, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8521727528564024, 0.14782724714359763 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 339, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[George Santos was expelled from the US House of Representatives on the 1st of December 2023](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/george-santos-expulsion-congress-ny-house-ethics-committee-rcna127179). His expulsion leaves the position of house representative for New York's 3rd district vacant. [A special election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_New_York%27s_3rd_congressional_district_special_election) will be held to fill the vacancy on the 13th of February 2024." }, { "id": 20334, "title": "Will the maximum weekly rate of hospitalizations per 100,000 in the US occur within four weeks of the combined peak for each of COVID, influenza, and RSV in the 2023-24 season?", "short_title": "Respiratory \"Tripledemic\" (4 Weeks) 2023-24?", "url_title": "Respiratory \"Tripledemic\" (4 Weeks) 2023-24?", "slug": "respiratory-tripledemic-4-weeks-2023-24", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-12-01T21:14:39.542866Z", "published_at": "2023-12-01T22:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:20.040772Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-12-01T22:30:00Z", "comment_count": 27, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-05-25T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-05-25T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-07-12T17:05:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-07-12T17:05:00Z", "open_time": "2023-12-01T22:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2723, "type": "tournament", "name": "Respiratory Outlook 2023/24", "slug": "respiratory-outlook-23-24", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/cdc-cover-final.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-12-01T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-07-01T20:27:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-06-30T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-10T21:27:29.753744Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-12T03:38:08.663730Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2723, "type": "tournament", "name": "Respiratory Outlook 2023/24", "slug": "respiratory-outlook-23-24", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/cdc-cover-final.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-12-01T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-07-01T20:27:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-06-30T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-10T21:27:29.753744Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-12T03:38:08.663730Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 20334, "title": "Will the maximum weekly rate of hospitalizations per 100,000 in the US occur within four weeks of the combined peak for each of COVID, influenza, and RSV in the 2023-24 season?", "created_at": "2023-12-01T21:14:39.542866Z", "open_time": "2023-12-01T22:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-12-04T22:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-12-04T22:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-07-12T17:05:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-07-12T17:05:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-07-12T17:05:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-05-25T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-05-25T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) closely monitors respiratory illnesses, particularly when these illnesses increase in prevalence during the winter. One monitoring and data sharing tool the CDC uses is [RESP-NET](https://www.cdc.gov/surveillance/resp-net/dashboard.html), which it describes as follows:\n\n>The Respiratory Virus Hospitalization Surveillance Network (RESP-NET) comprises three networks that conduct population-based surveillance for laboratory-confirmed hospitalizations associated with COVID-19, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), and influenza among children and adults. While RESP-NET does not collect data on all hospitalizations caused by respiratory illnesses, it can describe hospitalizations caused by three viruses that account for a large proportion of these hospitalizations. Surveillance is conducted through a network of acute care hospitals in select counties or county equivalents in 12 states for RSV surveillance, 13 states for COVID-19 surveillance, and 14 states for influenza surveillance. The surveillance platforms for COVID-19, RSV, and influenza (known as [COVID-NET](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covid-net/purpose-methods.html), [RSV-NET](https://www.cdc.gov/rsv/research/rsv-net/overview-methods.html), and [FluSurv-NET](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/influenza-hospitalization-surveillance.htm), respectively) cover more than 30 million people and include an estimated 8-10% of the U.S. population.\n\nThe underlying source data for the RESP-NET dashboard can be found at [this link](https://data.cdc.gov/Public-Health-Surveillance/Rates-of-Laboratory-Confirmed-RSV-COVID-19-and-Flu/kvib-3txy).\n\nIn its [Respiratory Disease Season Outlook](https://www.cdc.gov/respiratory-viruses/whats-new/2023-2024-season-outlook.html) for 2023-24, the CDC describes the 2022-23 peak as a \"tripledemic\" due to high incidence of COVID, flu, and RSV at the same time. The [RESP-NET](https://www.cdc.gov/surveillance/resp-net/dashboard.html) figures for the 2022-23 season show a large combined peak hospitalization rate of 22.2 per 100,000 for the week ending December 3, 2022, coinciding with the maximum rate for flu and less than a month from the maximum rate for RSV which occurred during the week ending November 12, 2022, and also less than a month from the maximum rate for COVID which occurred on the week ending December 31, 2022.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the maximum weekly rate of hospitalizations per 100,000 for each of COVID, influenza, and RSV that occurs in the 2023-24 season is less than or equal to four weeks (28 days) from the date of the maximum rate for all three combined, according to the CDC's [RESP-NET](https://www.cdc.gov/surveillance/resp-net/dashboard.html). The four weeks will be based on the week end dates. The CDC uses \"epidemiological weeks\" which begin on Sunday and end on Saturday. The rate used will be that for all ages, races, and sexes. See the fine print for the correct filters. For the purposes of this question, the 2023-2024 season will be considered to begin with the week ending on October 7, 2023, and end on the week ending June 1, 2024.\n\nTo allow for data revisions and reporting delays the question will resolve according to data shown after the reporting delay period, when the relevant figures for the current season is not shown as a dashed line, typically 4 weeks after the week end date.", "fine_print": "* In the event two or more weeks tie for the maximum of the combined viruses or for any individual virus this question will resolve as **Yes** if there exists any combination of maximums for which the individual maximums are four weeks or less from the same combined maximum.\n* The four week distance means that the total qualifying span of time will be eight weeks, four weeks on either side of the combined peak.\n* The following filters will be selected:\n\n * **Chart Selection:** \"Season\"\n * **View:** \"Weekly Rates\"\n * **Season:** \"2023-24\"\n * **Pathogen:** \"All\"", "post_id": 20334, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1716442030.246778, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.997 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1716442030.246778, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.997 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.0030000000000000027, 0.997 ], "means": [ 0.980754568304027 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.030893002561247163, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.028562043534371265, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.023631498669224205, 0.04842515677234604, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03911858530021452, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0839758874887769, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1924966697899563, 0.0, 0.41204022956929676, 0.17630000022929448, 0.4087506853414205, 0.0, 8.023074666193612 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 18.6605919255264, "coverage": 0.9974194028703127, "baseline_score": 68.2593274578977, "spot_peer_score": 16.716476544570213, "peer_archived_score": 18.6605919255264, "baseline_archived_score": 68.2593274578977, "spot_peer_archived_score": 16.716476544570213 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1716623092.193405, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1716623092.193405, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.0054921753793232275, 0.9945078246206768 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 233, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) closely monitors respiratory illnesses, particularly when these illnesses increase in prevalence during the winter. One monitoring and data sharing tool the CDC uses is [RESP-NET](https://www.cdc.gov/surveillance/resp-net/dashboard.html), which it describes as follows:\n\n>The Respiratory Virus Hospitalization Surveillance Network (RESP-NET) comprises three networks that conduct population-based surveillance for laboratory-confirmed hospitalizations associated with COVID-19, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), and influenza among children and adults. While RESP-NET does not collect data on all hospitalizations caused by respiratory illnesses, it can describe hospitalizations caused by three viruses that account for a large proportion of these hospitalizations. Surveillance is conducted through a network of acute care hospitals in select counties or county equivalents in 12 states for RSV surveillance, 13 states for COVID-19 surveillance, and 14 states for influenza surveillance. The surveillance platforms for COVID-19, RSV, and influenza (known as [COVID-NET](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covid-net/purpose-methods.html), [RSV-NET](https://www.cdc.gov/rsv/research/rsv-net/overview-methods.html), and [FluSurv-NET](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/influenza-hospitalization-surveillance.htm), respectively) cover more than 30 million people and include an estimated 8-10% of the U.S. population.\n\nThe underlying source data for the RESP-NET dashboard can be found at [this link](https://data.cdc.gov/Public-Health-Surveillance/Rates-of-Laboratory-Confirmed-RSV-COVID-19-and-Flu/kvib-3txy).\n\nIn its [Respiratory Disease Season Outlook](https://www.cdc.gov/respiratory-viruses/whats-new/2023-2024-season-outlook.html) for 2023-24, the CDC describes the 2022-23 peak as a \"tripledemic\" due to high incidence of COVID, flu, and RSV at the same time. The [RESP-NET](https://www.cdc.gov/surveillance/resp-net/dashboard.html) figures for the 2022-23 season show a large combined peak hospitalization rate of 22.2 per 100,000 for the week ending December 3, 2022, coinciding with the maximum rate for flu and less than a month from the maximum rate for RSV which occurred during the week ending November 12, 2022, and also less than a month from the maximum rate for COVID which occurred on the week ending December 31, 2022." }, { "id": 20333, "title": "Will a new SARS-CoV-2 variant classified as a VOC or worse result in at least 20,000 daily incident COVID hospitalizations in the US before July 1, 2025?", "short_title": "VOC w/ ≥20k daily hospitalizations by 7/1/25?", "url_title": "VOC w/ ≥20k daily hospitalizations by 7/1/25?", "slug": "voc-w-20k-daily-hospitalizations-by-7125", "author_id": 130973, "author_username": "NMorrison", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-12-01T20:46:58.079611Z", "published_at": "2023-12-01T22:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:00.992591Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-12-01T22:30:00Z", "comment_count": 42, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-06-30T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-06-30T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T18:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-01T20:18:00Z", "open_time": "2023-12-01T22:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 50, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2723, "type": "tournament", "name": "Respiratory Outlook 2023/24", "slug": "respiratory-outlook-23-24", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/cdc-cover-final.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-12-01T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-07-01T20:27:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-06-30T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-10T21:27:29.753744Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-12T03:38:08.663730Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2723, "type": "tournament", "name": "Respiratory Outlook 2023/24", "slug": "respiratory-outlook-23-24", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/cdc-cover-final.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-12-01T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-07-01T20:27:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-06-30T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-10T21:27:29.753744Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-12T03:38:08.663730Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 20333, "title": "Will a new SARS-CoV-2 variant classified as a VOC or worse result in at least 20,000 daily incident COVID hospitalizations in the US before July 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2023-12-01T20:46:58.079611Z", "open_time": "2023-12-01T22:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-12-04T22:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-12-04T22:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T18:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-01T20:18:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-09-01T20:20:21.312301Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-06-30T18:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-06-30T18:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "SARS-CoV-2, the virus causing COVID-19, constantly evolves through genetic mutations and recombinations, leading to numerous variants that differ from the original strain.\n\nSARS-CoV-2 variants are categorized based on their genetic mutations and the resulting public health implications. These categories include Variants of Interest (VOI), Variants of Concern (VOC), Variants of High Consequence (VOHC), and Variants Being Monitored (VBM). Each classification represents a different level of threat based on factors such as transmissibility, severity of disease, and impact on diagnostic, therapeutic, and preventive measures. The detailed definitions and criteria for these classifications can be found on the [CDC's variant classifications page](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/variants/variant-classifications.html).\n\n - A Variant of Concern (VOC) includes those that show increased transmissibility, more severe disease (e.g., higher hospitalizations or deaths), or significant reduction in neutralization by antibodies from previous infection or vaccination. \n- A Variant of High Consequence (VOHC), a more severe classification, is characterized by clear evidence of significantly reduced effectiveness of medical countermeasures. \n\nCurrently no SARS-CoV-2 variants are designated as VOC or VOHC. The last VOC was Omicron, which emerged in November 2021 and caused a [worldwide wave](https://www.who.int/news-room/feature-stories/detail/one-year-since-the-emergence-of-omicron) of cases. At its peak, Omicron [exceeded 20,000 daily hospital admissions](https://viz.covid19forecasthub.org/) in the United States for a period of approximately 2 weeks", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, after December 1, 2023, and before July 1, 2025, all three of the following occur:\n\n1. The SARS-CoV-2 Interagency Group announces or [classifies on CDC's SARS-CoV-2 variant classifications page](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/variants/variant-classifications.html) at least one new SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Concern (VOC) or Variant of High Consequence (VOHC) that was not previously identified as a VOC or VOHC at any point.\n2. Daily incident COVID hospitalizations in the United States reach 20,000 or higher according to [data provided by the COVID-19 Forecast Hub](https://github.com/reichlab/covid19-forecast-hub/tree/master/data-truth).\n3. The surge of COVID hospitalizations (described in requirement 2) is attributed to the variant(s) (described in requirement 1) by the CDC or other credible sources. Not every hospitalization needs to be attributed to the variant(s) identified in requirement 1; it is sufficient if sources attribute the unusually large number of cases to the VOC(s).", "fine_print": "- If a new variant is classified using a new classification that is clearly described as being a level above VOC or having properties in addition to the possible attributes of a VOC or VOHC this question will also resolve as **Yes**.\n\n- If multiple new VOCs cause the surge in COVID hospitalizations, the question resolves **Yes**.", "post_id": 20333, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1750788148.825113, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 48, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.009 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1750788148.825113, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 48, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.009 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.05732533917116674 ], "histogram": [ [ 9.458213184138577, 1.0677820701704266, 0.12167589399432807, 0.1314375106214734, 0.011348003115516677, 0.03130111324493289, 0.031347272583498446, 0.019678999436820003, 0.7262634069739012, 0.0, 0.09493869584722352, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0471123603738702, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.016576386347562713, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.041314330922520195, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.013808762573796008, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5508432647395618 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 96.51204605647759, "peer_score": 25.700113854132855, "coverage": 0.9997539519849286, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9997539519849286, "spot_peer_score": 36.415682522717525, "spot_baseline_score": 84.79969065549501, "baseline_archived_score": 96.51204605647759, "peer_archived_score": 25.700113854132855, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 36.415682522717525, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 84.79969065549501 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288724.839618, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 40, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288724.839618, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 40, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9962992398779952, 0.0037007601220048615 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 8, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 260, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "SARS-CoV-2, the virus causing COVID-19, constantly evolves through genetic mutations and recombinations, leading to numerous variants that differ from the original strain.\n\nSARS-CoV-2 variants are categorized based on their genetic mutations and the resulting public health implications. These categories include Variants of Interest (VOI), Variants of Concern (VOC), Variants of High Consequence (VOHC), and Variants Being Monitored (VBM). Each classification represents a different level of threat based on factors such as transmissibility, severity of disease, and impact on diagnostic, therapeutic, and preventive measures. The detailed definitions and criteria for these classifications can be found on the [CDC's variant classifications page](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/variants/variant-classifications.html).\n\n - A Variant of Concern (VOC) includes those that show increased transmissibility, more severe disease (e.g., higher hospitalizations or deaths), or significant reduction in neutralization by antibodies from previous infection or vaccination. \n- A Variant of High Consequence (VOHC), a more severe classification, is characterized by clear evidence of significantly reduced effectiveness of medical countermeasures. \n\nCurrently no SARS-CoV-2 variants are designated as VOC or VOHC. The last VOC was Omicron, which emerged in November 2021 and caused a [worldwide wave](https://www.who.int/news-room/feature-stories/detail/one-year-since-the-emergence-of-omicron) of cases. At its peak, Omicron [exceeded 20,000 daily hospital admissions](https://viz.covid19forecasthub.org/) in the United States for a period of approximately 2 weeks" }, { "id": 20279, "title": "Will the Executive Order on the Safe, Secure, and Trustworthy Development and Use of Artificial Intelligence be revoked or materially amended before November 2028?", "short_title": "Executive Order on AI Repealed?", "url_title": "Executive Order on AI Repealed?", "slug": "executive-order-on-ai-repealed", "author_id": 111743, "author_username": "NathanpmYoung", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-12-01T18:28:43.809447Z", "published_at": "2024-01-19T00:22:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:57.761463Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-01-19T00:22:00Z", "comment_count": 15, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-01-20T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2028-11-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-11-08T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-20T23:00:00Z", "open_time": "2024-01-19T00:22:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 31, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 20279, "title": "Will the Executive Order on the Safe, Secure, and Trustworthy Development and Use of Artificial Intelligence be revoked or materially amended before November 2028?", "created_at": "2023-12-01T18:28:43.809447Z", "open_time": "2024-01-19T00:22:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-01-22T00:22:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-01-22T00:22:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-11-08T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-20T23:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-21T04:01:18.524123Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2028-11-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-01-20T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "President Joe Biden has issued an Executive Order addressing the development and use of artificial intelligence (AI), acknowledging its potential for promise and peril. The [order emphasizes](https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R47843) responsible AI use while warning against irresponsible practices that could lead to societal harm, discrimination, bias, and national security risks. It seeks to accommodate various perspectives but faces potential challenges in execution and from legislative efforts for AI regulation. Critics argue the order's reporting requirements may hinder innovation, leading to market concerns and declining AI-related token prices.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves **Yes** if the [Executive Order on the Safe, Secure, and Trustworthy Development and Use of Artificial Intelligence](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/presidential-actions/2023/10/30/executive-order-on-the-safe-secure-and-trustworthy-development-and-use-of-artificial-intelligence/) is cancelled, revoked, or materially modified at any point before the end of November 2028. The source of resolution will be an official statement by the White House or a reputable international news source citing such an official statement. If no such official statement or reputable news source confirms the repeal or significant amendment of the order before the end of November 2028, the question resolves \"No\". In the event that the order is confirmed to have been repealed or materially amended prior to the end of November 2028, the question resolves \"Yes.\"", "fine_print": "- Material modification refers to any change that alters the original intent or impact of the order.\n- If the order simply expires without being cancelled, revoked, or materially modified, the question resolves as \"No.\"", "post_id": 20279, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1737418261.307472, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.82 ], "centers": [ 0.885 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1737418261.307472, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.82 ], "centers": [ 0.885 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.11499999999999999, 0.885 ], "means": [ 0.8673918970504833 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05892591724387544, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03499639918756375, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.030893002561247163, 0.0, 0.017197143016031723, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03911858530021452, 0.13357075254608086, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2010418409121184, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3393806732212451, 0.8842321130979868, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18599201130361204, 0.4087506853414205, 0.0839758874887769, 0.22827012898946356, 0.0, 1.270089954671456, 0.3660118313347263, 0.0, 0.5608812398816437, 0.0, 1.3754756490190947, 0.8305036517217669, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5059112341124612, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.9120497244989734 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 7.988934277836805, "peer_score": 5.4314350416063615, "coverage": 0.20939998398465154, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9947951654803892, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": -51.45731728297583, "baseline_archived_score": 7.988934277836805, "peer_archived_score": 5.4314350416063615, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -51.45731728297583 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289110.149213, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289110.149213, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.2974320013632268, 0.7025679986367732 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 91, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "President Joe Biden has issued an Executive Order addressing the development and use of artificial intelligence (AI), acknowledging its potential for promise and peril. The [order emphasizes](https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R47843) responsible AI use while warning against irresponsible practices that could lead to societal harm, discrimination, bias, and national security risks. It seeks to accommodate various perspectives but faces potential challenges in execution and from legislative efforts for AI regulation. Critics argue the order's reporting requirements may hinder innovation, leading to market concerns and declining AI-related token prices." }, { "id": 20278, "title": "Will any 100% AI-generated legislation be passed in the U.S. before 2040?", "short_title": "AI-generated US legislation by 2040", "url_title": "AI-generated US legislation by 2040", "slug": "ai-generated-us-legislation-by-2040", "author_id": 111743, "author_username": "NathanpmYoung", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-12-01T18:28:42.793979Z", "published_at": "2023-12-08T12:48:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-17T00:11:13.079062Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-12-08T12:48:00Z", "comment_count": 11, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2039-12-31T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2040-01-08T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-12-08T12:48:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 36, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 20278, "title": "Will any 100% AI-generated legislation be passed in the U.S. before 2040?", "created_at": "2023-12-01T18:28:42.793979Z", "open_time": "2023-12-08T12:48:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-12-11T12:48:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-12-11T12:48:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2040-01-08T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2039-12-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2039-12-31T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "AI has been rapidly developing in recent years, and well before this it has long been opined that decisions in our legal and political systems could be better handled by AI than human beings. The passage of legislation, authored entirely by AI, would represent a major milestone toward such a future.", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves as **Yes** if, before the start of the year 2040, it is publicly reported by credible sources that an AI has entirely written binding legislation that has been passed by a legislative body at the local, state, and/or federal level in the United States. \n\n\"Binding legislation\" shall include official budgets, statutes/ordinances, and amendments to constitutions or charters that are voted on by an elected legislative body. Official statements or resolutions that impose no material change to any persons, legal or natural, shall not be counted. \n\nLegislation is considered \"entirely written\" by the AI system if every word of the legislation is generated by an AI, including in response to human prompts.\n\nIf this does not happen before January 1, 2040, the question resolves **No**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 20278, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1760659862.43333, "end_time": 1769663665.266705, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.49 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1760659862.43333, "end_time": 1769663665.266705, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.49 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.51, 0.49 ], "means": [ 0.4266739745463703 ], "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288418.765203, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288418.765203, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9135364501564572, 0.0864635498435428 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 119, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "AI has been rapidly developing in recent years, and well before this it has long been opined that decisions in our legal and political systems could be better handled by AI than human beings. The passage of legislation, authored entirely by AI, would represent a major milestone toward such a future." }, { "id": 20261, "title": "Will any additional Republican candidates for president drop out before 2024?", "short_title": "GOP Presidential Drop Out Before 2024?", "url_title": "GOP Presidential Drop Out Before 2024?", "slug": "gop-presidential-drop-out-before-2024", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-11-29T21:53:33.570303Z", "published_at": "2023-11-30T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:53.247992Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-11-30T15:30:00Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-04T16:04:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-12-04T16:04:00Z", "open_time": "2023-11-30T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 38, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2654, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q4 2023 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2023q4", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/quarterlycup.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-10-03T15:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-01-04T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-01-05T15:54:55.645171Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2654, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q4 2023 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2023q4", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/quarterlycup.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-10-03T15:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-01-04T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-01-05T15:54:55.645171Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 20261, "title": "Will any additional Republican candidates for president drop out before 2024?", "created_at": "2023-11-29T21:53:33.570303Z", "open_time": "2023-11-30T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-12-03T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-12-03T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-12-04T16:04:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-12-04T16:04:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-04T16:04:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The Republican primary election will kick off [on January 15, 2024](https://www.cnn.com/election/2024/calendar), with the Iowa caucus, followed soon after by the New Hampshire primary on January 23rd. Several candidates have already [dropped out](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Republican_Party_presidential_primaries#Withdrew_before_the_primaries), the most recent being Tim Scott on November 12th. [FiveThirtyEight shows seven major candidates remaining](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/national/) though Donald Trump is polling at roughly 60% as of November 29th and has so far his lead has been stable.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, after November 29, 2023, and before January 1, 2024, any of the individuals below seeking the nomination as the Republican candidate for president announces that they are dropping out of the race:\n\n* Donald Trump\n* Ron DeSantis\n* Nikki Haley\n* Vivek Ramaswamy\n* Chris Christie\n* Doug Burgum\n* Asa Hutchinson", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 20261, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1701706051.95233, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 38, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1701706051.95233, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 38, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5, 0.5 ], "means": [ 0.49462782206536343 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04223888642530301, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.035579456289155105, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.98762653538766, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14634721205825776, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.25446741675480405, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06718452183420129, 0.0, 0.4706366803324597, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5593033974205628, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.848390712889754, 0.0, 0.42198459712074377, 0.0, 0.0, 2.3183201556293342, 0.0, 0.16438976427023788, 0.0, 0.0, 0.37974261668515136, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.248809595753717, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18409965808495726, 0.019676189570906492, 0.029639045211680565, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1011216878911307, 0.005716411657967498, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20559680035186842, 0.0, 0.28211668489493613, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06521963758888388, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 3.345484675935418, "coverage": 0.12830444421120984, "baseline_score": 0.7760396093739695, "spot_peer_score": 29.810733470873757, "peer_archived_score": 3.345484675935418, "baseline_archived_score": 0.7760396093739695, "spot_peer_archived_score": 29.810733470873757 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1701684000.27332, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 38, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1701684000.27332, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 38, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6788990352725978, 0.32110096472740224 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 74, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The Republican primary election will kick off [on January 15, 2024](https://www.cnn.com/election/2024/calendar), with the Iowa caucus, followed soon after by the New Hampshire primary on January 23rd. Several candidates have already [dropped out](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Republican_Party_presidential_primaries#Withdrew_before_the_primaries), the most recent being Tim Scott on November 12th. [FiveThirtyEight shows seven major candidates remaining](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/national/) though Donald Trump is polling at roughly 60% as of November 29th and has so far his lead has been stable." }, { "id": 20260, "title": "Will a majority of voters approve Venezuela's referendum on incorporating Guayana Esequiba into Venezuela?", "short_title": "Venezuela Votes to Annex Guyana Territory?", "url_title": "Venezuela Votes to Annex Guyana Territory?", "slug": "venezuela-votes-to-annex-guyana-territory", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-11-29T20:33:37.122683Z", "published_at": "2023-11-30T00:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:58.041041Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-11-30T00:00:00Z", "comment_count": 14, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-02T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-02T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-12-04T04:38:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-12-04T04:38:00Z", "open_time": "2023-11-30T00:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 62, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2654, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q4 2023 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2023q4", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/quarterlycup.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-10-03T15:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-01-04T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-01-05T15:54:55.645171Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2654, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q4 2023 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2023q4", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/quarterlycup.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-10-03T15:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-01-04T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-01-05T15:54:55.645171Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 20260, "title": "Will a majority of voters approve Venezuela's referendum on incorporating Guayana Esequiba into Venezuela?", "created_at": "2023-11-29T20:33:37.122683Z", "open_time": "2023-11-30T00:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-11-30T07:06:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-11-30T07:06:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-12-04T04:38:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-12-04T04:38:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-12-04T04:38:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-02T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-02T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "A [Venezuelan referendum asking five questions is scheduled for December 3, 2023](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Venezuelan_referendum). The subject of the referendum is the territory of [Guayana Esequiba](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guayana_Esequiba), administered by Guyana but claimed by Venezuela. Guyana [has asked](https://www.icj-cij.org/case/171) the UN [International Court of Justice](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Court_of_Justice) to halt the referendum, but Venezuela's Vice President [has stated](https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/uns-top-court-venezuela-vows-press-ahead-referendum-104903839) \"Nothing will prevent the referendum scheduled for Dec. 3 from being held\".\n\n[According to Demerara Waves](https://demerarawaves.com/2023/10/23/venezuelan-electoral-council-approves-five-questions-for-referendum-on-essequibo/) the five questions asked in the referendum are as follows:\n\n1. Do you agree to reject by all means in accordance with the law the line fraudulently imposed by the Paris Arbitration Award of 1899 that seeks to deprive us of our Guayana Esequiba?\n\n2. Do you support the 1966 Geneva Agreement as the only valid legal instrument to reach a practical and satisfactory solution for Venezuela and Guyana regarding the controversy over the territory of Guayana Esequiba?\n\n3. Do you agree with Venezuela’s historical position of not recognizing the jurisdiction of the International Court of Justice to resolve the territorial controversy over Guayana Esequiba?\n\n4. Do you agree to oppose by all means in accordance with the law Guyana’s claim to unilaterally dispose of a sea pending delimitation illegally and in violation of international law?\n\n5. Do you agree with the creation of the Guayana Esequiba state and the development of an accelerated plan for the comprehensive care of the current and future population of that territory that includes, among others, the granting of citizenship and Venezuelan identity card in accordance with the Geneva Agreement and international law, consequently incorporating said state on the map of Venezuelan territory?", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the fifth question in the December 3rd, 2023, Venezuelan referendum — regarding incorporating Guayana Esequiba into Venezuelan territory — receives more votes in favor than opposed, according to the results published by Venezuela and as reported by [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions).", "fine_print": "* This question asks specifically about the results of the [following referendum question](https://demerarawaves.com/2023/10/23/venezuelan-electoral-council-approves-five-questions-for-referendum-on-essequibo/):\n\n>Do you agree with the creation of the Guayana Esequiba state and the development of an accelerated plan for the comprehensive care of the current and future population of that territory that includes, among others, the granting of citizenship and Venezuelan identity card in accordance with the Geneva Agreement and international law, consequently incorporating said state on the map of Venezuelan territory?\n\n* This question asks about the results that Venezuela reports. Whether those results are broadly seen as credible is immaterial.\n\n* If no referendum is held on December 3rd this question will be **annulled**.", "post_id": 20260, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1701555771.761095, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 62, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "centers": [ 0.93 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.96 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1701555771.761095, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 62, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "centers": [ 0.93 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.96 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.06999999999999995, 0.93 ], "means": [ 0.904038896868924 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004407189337132444, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2144205484641543, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.48066753395180806, 0.003560195227230837, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1809392623709519, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006437720576519247, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4490016412966167, 0.24826285979550225, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20402669149047276, 0.03565285440045971, 0.31167199523019246, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2783580677078952, 0.7231248136457471, 0.0, 2.342775599832415, 0.2123642000108881, 0.9386644706653295, 2.845563371920317, 0.13705347335991425, 0.11890323980894008, 2.5179256720676464 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 8.263151143134436, "coverage": 0.9999262579263468, "baseline_score": 84.73064769918093, "spot_peer_score": 2.7866685534558853, "peer_archived_score": 8.263151143134436, "baseline_archived_score": 84.73064769918093, "spot_peer_archived_score": 2.7866685534558853 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1701555771.808048, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 62, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1701555771.808048, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 62, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.0565067256298486, 0.9434932743701514 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 136, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "A [Venezuelan referendum asking five questions is scheduled for December 3, 2023](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Venezuelan_referendum). The subject of the referendum is the territory of [Guayana Esequiba](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guayana_Esequiba), administered by Guyana but claimed by Venezuela. Guyana [has asked](https://www.icj-cij.org/case/171) the UN [International Court of Justice](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Court_of_Justice) to halt the referendum, but Venezuela's Vice President [has stated](https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/uns-top-court-venezuela-vows-press-ahead-referendum-104903839) \"Nothing will prevent the referendum scheduled for Dec. 3 from being held\".\n\n[According to Demerara Waves](https://demerarawaves.com/2023/10/23/venezuelan-electoral-council-approves-five-questions-for-referendum-on-essequibo/) the five questions asked in the referendum are as follows:\n\n1. Do you agree to reject by all means in accordance with the law the line fraudulently imposed by the Paris Arbitration Award of 1899 that seeks to deprive us of our Guayana Esequiba?\n\n2. Do you support the 1966 Geneva Agreement as the only valid legal instrument to reach a practical and satisfactory solution for Venezuela and Guyana regarding the controversy over the territory of Guayana Esequiba?\n\n3. Do you agree with Venezuela’s historical position of not recognizing the jurisdiction of the International Court of Justice to resolve the territorial controversy over Guayana Esequiba?\n\n4. Do you agree to oppose by all means in accordance with the law Guyana’s claim to unilaterally dispose of a sea pending delimitation illegally and in violation of international law?\n\n5. Do you agree with the creation of the Guayana Esequiba state and the development of an accelerated plan for the comprehensive care of the current and future population of that territory that includes, among others, the granting of citizenship and Venezuelan identity card in accordance with the Geneva Agreement and international law, consequently incorporating said state on the map of Venezuelan territory?" }, { "id": 20257, "title": "Will Mark Zuckerberg remain as CEO of Meta Platforms until October 21, 2031?", "short_title": "Zuckerberg CEO of Meta until 2031", "url_title": "Zuckerberg CEO of Meta until 2031", "slug": "zuckerberg-ceo-of-meta-until-2031", "author_id": 111743, "author_username": "NathanpmYoung", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-11-29T18:30:56.157386Z", "published_at": "2024-04-10T18:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T11:16:58.412588Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-04-10T18:00:00Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2031-10-21T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-10-28T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-04-10T18:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 15, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 20257, "title": "Will Mark Zuckerberg remain as CEO of Meta Platforms until October 21, 2031?", "created_at": "2023-11-29T18:30:56.157386Z", "open_time": "2024-04-10T18:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-04-13T18:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-04-13T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-10-28T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2031-10-21T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2031-10-21T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On October 21, 2022, Facebook, the social media powerhouse, rebranded to Meta Platforms, reflecting CEO Mark Zuckerberg's shift towards a virtual reality-focused future, termed the Metaverse. Following the rebranding, Meta's stock value dropped due to poor earnings, raising concerns about the firm's future profitability and relevance under Zuckerberg's new direction. While share prices have rebounded, ongoing financial struggles, challenges in making the Metaverse profitable, or doubts about the company's adaptability in the ever-changing social media landscape could potentially lead to the end of Zuckerberg's [leadership](https://about.meta.com/media-gallery/executives/) as CEO.\n\nSee also: \n\n- Washington Post: [With Bezos out as Amazon CEO, Zuckerberg is the last man standing](https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2021/02/03/bezos-zuckerberg-ceo-transition/)\n\n- Harvard Business Review: [Should Mark Zuckerberg Resign?](https://hbr.org/2019/01/should-mark-zuckerberg-resign)", "resolution_criteria": "This market will resolve as **Yes** if Mark Zuckerberg continuously serves as Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of Meta Platforms Inc. until the market's closure. It will also resolve as **Yes** if Meta merges or is acquired, provided Zuckerberg remains CEO of the resultant entity. However, if [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report Zuckerberg is no longer CEO of Meta (or its successor entity), or if he steps down or is removed as CEO before October 21, 2031, the market will immediately resolve to **No**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 20257, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763250017.871859, "end_time": 1765769950.489626, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.51 ], "centers": [ 0.64 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763250017.871859, "end_time": 1765769950.489626, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.51 ], "centers": [ 0.64 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.36, 0.64 ], "means": [ 0.6586871644487434 ], "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728290005.412696, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728290005.412696, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.4509148535391727, 0.5490851464608273 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 26, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On October 21, 2022, Facebook, the social media powerhouse, rebranded to Meta Platforms, reflecting CEO Mark Zuckerberg's shift towards a virtual reality-focused future, termed the Metaverse. Following the rebranding, Meta's stock value dropped due to poor earnings, raising concerns about the firm's future profitability and relevance under Zuckerberg's new direction. While share prices have rebounded, ongoing financial struggles, challenges in making the Metaverse profitable, or doubts about the company's adaptability in the ever-changing social media landscape could potentially lead to the end of Zuckerberg's [leadership](https://about.meta.com/media-gallery/executives/) as CEO.\n\nSee also: \n\n- Washington Post: [With Bezos out as Amazon CEO, Zuckerberg is the last man standing](https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2021/02/03/bezos-zuckerberg-ceo-transition/)\n\n- Harvard Business Review: [Should Mark Zuckerberg Resign?](https://hbr.org/2019/01/should-mark-zuckerberg-resign)" }, { "id": 20241, "title": "Will Walmart stores in the United States return to 24-hour service before 2026?", "short_title": "Walmart open 24 hours again", "url_title": "Walmart open 24 hours again", "slug": "walmart-open-24-hours-again", "author_id": 130846, "author_username": "ForkLeaf", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-11-29T08:40:05.717763Z", "published_at": "2023-12-10T17:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-14T19:15:07.926837Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-12-10T17:30:00Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-12-10T17:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 15, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 20241, "title": "Will Walmart stores in the United States return to 24-hour service before 2026?", "created_at": "2023-11-29T08:40:05.717763Z", "open_time": "2023-12-10T17:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-12-13T17:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-12-13T17:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-01T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Walmart](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Walmart) is a multinational retail store chain headquartered in the United States. Prior to 2020, Walmart stores were known for being open 24 hours a day, 7 days a week in most locations. However, COVID-19 and related government restrictions resulted in the company's management making the decision to close stores at night. In August of 2022, the chain announced that they had [no plans](https://www.wsfa.com/2022/08/12/walmart-no-plans-make-stores-247-again/) to make its stores open 24/7 again, likely as a result of [labor shortages](https://www.uschamber.com/workforce/understanding-americas-labor-shortage-the-most-impacted-industries). However, this has not stopped [speculation](https://www.cheddarflow.com/blog/the-end-of-24-hour-walmart-what-happened/) that the chain may return to 24-hour service at some point as labor shortages recede.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2026, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report that the majority of Walmart stores in the United States have returned to 24/7 service. The chain merely announcing that this is occurring will not be sufficient to resolve the question. If this does not occur before the resolution date, the question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 20241, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1759000526.882592, "end_time": 1766409868.802, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.04 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.099 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1759000526.882592, "end_time": 1766409868.802, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.04 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.099 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.96, 0.04 ], "means": [ 0.06379817072343123 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7897269884419299, 1.0437146786346598, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2905243231860232, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289329.390586, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289329.390586, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8666647680338668, 0.13333523196613312 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 119, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Walmart](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Walmart) is a multinational retail store chain headquartered in the United States. Prior to 2020, Walmart stores were known for being open 24 hours a day, 7 days a week in most locations. However, COVID-19 and related government restrictions resulted in the company's management making the decision to close stores at night. In August of 2022, the chain announced that they had [no plans](https://www.wsfa.com/2022/08/12/walmart-no-plans-make-stores-247-again/) to make its stores open 24/7 again, likely as a result of [labor shortages](https://www.uschamber.com/workforce/understanding-americas-labor-shortage-the-most-impacted-industries). However, this has not stopped [speculation](https://www.cheddarflow.com/blog/the-end-of-24-hour-walmart-what-happened/) that the chain may return to 24-hour service at some point as labor shortages recede." }, { "id": 20218, "title": "Will there be a white Christmas in at least 4 of these 9 large European cities in 2023?", "short_title": "White 2023 Christmas in Europe?", "url_title": "White 2023 Christmas in Europe?", "slug": "white-2023-christmas-in-europe", "author_id": 118622, "author_username": "kqr", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-11-27T11:39:20.101935Z", "published_at": "2023-12-06T16:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:47.005919Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-12-06T16:00:00Z", "comment_count": 34, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-16T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-16T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-03T18:07:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-03T18:07:00Z", "open_time": "2023-12-06T16:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 47, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15867, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "climate", "emoji": "🌎", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3697, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "environment-climate", "emoji": "🌱", "description": "Environment & Climate", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2654, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q4 2023 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2023q4", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/quarterlycup.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-10-03T15:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-01-04T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-01-05T15:54:55.645171Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2654, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q4 2023 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2023q4", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/quarterlycup.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-10-03T15:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-01-04T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-01-05T15:54:55.645171Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 20218, "title": "Will there be a white Christmas in at least 4 of these 9 large European cities in 2023?", "created_at": "2023-11-27T11:39:20.101935Z", "open_time": "2023-12-06T16:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-12-07T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-12-07T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-03T18:07:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-03T18:07:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-01-03T18:07:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-16T11:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-16T11:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Many children wish for a white Christmas, i.e. snow on the days 24th or 25th December. Transit operators and homeless people enjoy it less. It is an important cultural event around the northern Atlantic, though; hence this question!\n\nCultural note: The majority of inhabitants of Instanbul do not celebrate Christmas at all. Neither do all Russians celebrate Christmas in December. These differences are irrelevant for the question, which is focused on Christmas as celebrated by most cultures around the northern Atlantic.\n\n-----\n\nThis question uses METAR data as the source for convenience, because it provides a standardised view into actual observed weather at diverse geographical locations. Here's an example of a METAR report:\n\n> METAR UUEE 050800Z 28003MPS 240V320 7000 -SN SCT006 M11/M13 Q1018 R24L/490336 R24C/490336 NOSIG=\n\nThe standard allows for many optional components, but common components are\n\n- The reporting station (in this case `UUEE`, which is a Moscow airport) comes after the preamble\n- the day and time of observation (in this case `050800Z` meaning day 5 of the month, at 8 o'clock UTC)\n- wind speed and direction (in this case `28003MPS` meaning 280°, 3 m/s)\n- visibility (in this case `7000` meaning 7000 metres)\n- cloud cover (in this case `SCT006` meaning scattered at 600 feet)\n- temperature (in this case `M11/M13` meaning temperature of -11 °C)\n- air pressure (in this case `Q1018` meaning 1018 millibar)\n- runway information, starting with R\n- a near-term forecast (in this case `NOSIG` meaning no significant change expected)\n\nBut! Critically for this question, there are also indications of precipitation. In the example above, that's \"-SN\" for \"light snow\".\n\nHere are some other examples of reports indicating snow:\n\n> METAR ESSA 270120Z 01005KT 9999 -SN SCT007 BKN009 OVC046 M05/M06 Q1010 RESN BECMG BKN020=`\n\n`RESN` means \"recent snow\"\n\n> METAR ESNU 252220Z 33009KT 9999 SG FEW018 OVC055 M03/M05 Q1003=\n\n`SG` means \"snow grains\"\n\n> METAR EFOU 041820Z AUTO 14003KT 9999 -SHSN SCT044 M13/M15 Q1013=\n\n`-SHSN` means \"light snow shower\"\n\nFor decoding reports, [the web tool by Flight Plan Database](https://flightplandatabase.com/METAR) can be a helpful assistant.", "resolution_criteria": "The 10 largest cities in Europe [according to Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_European_cities_by_population_within_city_limits#Largest_cities) are\n\n- Istanbul\n- Moscow\n- London\n- Saint Petersburg\n- Berlin\n- Madrid\n- Kyiv\n- Rome\n- Bucharest\n- Paris\n\nFor this question, we unfortunately have to exclude Kyiv due to the lack of standardised aerodrome weather reporting in the area.\n\nEach of the remaining 9 cities will have been considered to have had a white Christmas if, on either of the days 24 December or 25 December, there has been precipitation in the form of snow. The selection will be set to begin at hour 0 UTC on the 24th and end at hour 23 UTC on the 25th.\n\nIf four or more of them have had a white Christmas, then this question resolves as **Yes**. Otherwise, it resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "To determine whether there has been precipitation in these cities, the [Ogimet METAR](http://www.ogimet.com/metars.phtml.en) historic data for the dates given above will be consulted. If that source is down, a similar one will be located. If none can be found with reasonable effort, the question resolves **Ambiguous**.\n\nThe lookup will be made for the following airports (corresponding to the cities listed above, excluding Kyiv): LTFM, UUEE, EGLL, ULLI, EDDB, LEMD, LIRF, LROP, LFPG. Any reference to snow (SN), snow grains (SG), snow pellets (SP or GS), or snow shower (SW) will count as there being precipitation in the form of snow.", "post_id": 20218, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1702718035.220868, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 47, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.17 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1702718035.220868, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 47, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.17 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8, 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.25191100130272565 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.800591043524475, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3403259577906623, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5763984674598623, 0.6873484555754474, 0.3726419108865464, 0.0, 0.6975902937211316, 0.968955588553565, 0.0, 3.1239527170650456, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5874172525367372, 0.0, 0.012201884674984505, 0.09222549710312164, 0.0, 0.6213416309859594, 0.004333234413825695, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9583406036902323, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8629050061859964, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6360167605213906, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7529282881015206, 0.0, 0.03365636844874199, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03600755180602183, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05065733435182447, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0028636604341700815 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 20.45109908963727, "coverage": 0.9929552599183213, "baseline_score": 47.99070834865969, "spot_peer_score": 41.047876783067224, "peer_archived_score": 20.45109908963727, "baseline_archived_score": 47.99070834865969, "spot_peer_archived_score": 41.047876783067224 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1702718035.254343, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 47, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1702718035.254343, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 47, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9529730921289876, 0.047026907871012394 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 174, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Many children wish for a white Christmas, i.e. snow on the days 24th or 25th December. Transit operators and homeless people enjoy it less. It is an important cultural event around the northern Atlantic, though; hence this question!\n\nCultural note: The majority of inhabitants of Instanbul do not celebrate Christmas at all. Neither do all Russians celebrate Christmas in December. These differences are irrelevant for the question, which is focused on Christmas as celebrated by most cultures around the northern Atlantic.\n\n-----\n\nThis question uses METAR data as the source for convenience, because it provides a standardised view into actual observed weather at diverse geographical locations. Here's an example of a METAR report:\n\n> METAR UUEE 050800Z 28003MPS 240V320 7000 -SN SCT006 M11/M13 Q1018 R24L/490336 R24C/490336 NOSIG=\n\nThe standard allows for many optional components, but common components are\n\n- The reporting station (in this case `UUEE`, which is a Moscow airport) comes after the preamble\n- the day and time of observation (in this case `050800Z` meaning day 5 of the month, at 8 o'clock UTC)\n- wind speed and direction (in this case `28003MPS` meaning 280°, 3 m/s)\n- visibility (in this case `7000` meaning 7000 metres)\n- cloud cover (in this case `SCT006` meaning scattered at 600 feet)\n- temperature (in this case `M11/M13` meaning temperature of -11 °C)\n- air pressure (in this case `Q1018` meaning 1018 millibar)\n- runway information, starting with R\n- a near-term forecast (in this case `NOSIG` meaning no significant change expected)\n\nBut! Critically for this question, there are also indications of precipitation. In the example above, that's \"-SN\" for \"light snow\".\n\nHere are some other examples of reports indicating snow:\n\n> METAR ESSA 270120Z 01005KT 9999 -SN SCT007 BKN009 OVC046 M05/M06 Q1010 RESN BECMG BKN020=`\n\n`RESN` means \"recent snow\"\n\n> METAR ESNU 252220Z 33009KT 9999 SG FEW018 OVC055 M03/M05 Q1003=\n\n`SG` means \"snow grains\"\n\n> METAR EFOU 041820Z AUTO 14003KT 9999 -SHSN SCT044 M13/M15 Q1013=\n\n`-SHSN` means \"light snow shower\"\n\nFor decoding reports, [the web tool by Flight Plan Database](https://flightplandatabase.com/METAR) can be a helpful assistant." }, { "id": 20172, "title": "Before 2026, will OpenAI's commercial operations cease to be governed by its nonprofit board of directors?", "short_title": "OpenAI Cease Governance by Nonprofit Board?", "url_title": "OpenAI Cease Governance by Nonprofit Board?", "slug": "openai-cease-governance-by-nonprofit-board", "author_id": 127582, "author_username": "lbiii", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-11-24T17:39:49.211714Z", "published_at": "2024-01-13T15:58:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-18T07:32:49.180156Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-01-13T15:58:00Z", "comment_count": 20, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-01-13T15:58:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 70, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32601, "name": "2024-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 20172, "title": "Before 2026, will OpenAI's commercial operations cease to be governed by its nonprofit board of directors?", "created_at": "2023-11-24T17:39:49.211714Z", "open_time": "2024-01-13T15:58:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-01-16T15:58:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-01-16T15:58:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-01T08:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "OpenAI Inc., a Delaware 501(c)3 nonprofit corporation, was founded in late 2015. At its [inception](https://web.archive.org/web/20151222103150/https://openai.com/blog/introducing-openai/), OpenAI's mission and corporate structure were intended to maximize and broadly distribute the benefits of AI for humanity while minimizing the risks of such a potentially transformative—and possibly harmful—technology.\n\nThe [tumultuous events](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/OpenAI#2023%E2%80%93present:_Brief_departure_of_Altman_and_Brockman) of November 17-21, 2023 culminated in a [reconstitution](https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/22/sam-altmans-back-heres-whos-on-the-new-openai-board-and-whos-out.html) of the nonprofit's board of directors and, along with it, [speculation](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/22/technology/openai-board-capitalists.html) regarding whether the company's original mission and structure will remain intact.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves \"Yes\" if, before January 1, 2026, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report that OpenAI's commercial operations (such operations, as of the writing of this question, are housed under OpenAI Global LLC) are no longer governed by the nonprofit board of directors of OpenAI Inc.\n\n* **Resolution in the Event of Restructuring, Merger, etc.**—If, through corporate restructuring, merger, acquisition, transfer of assets (including intellectual property) or by other means, all or a substantial portion of OpenAI's commercial operations are transferred to another entity that is not controlled by the nonprofit board of directors of OpenAI, this question would resolve \"Yes\".\n\n* **Resolution in the Event of a Mass Departure of Staff to a Competitor or New Entity**—If within a 180-day period, more than 50% of employees of OpenAI Global LLC (or a successor entity that is still under the control of the nonprofit board) housing OpenAI's commercial activities become employees of another single entity that is not controlled by the nonprofit board of OpenAI Inc., this would be considered a substantial transfer of OpenAI's intellectual property, and this question would resolve \"Yes\".", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 20172, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762777411.548024, "end_time": 1764348570.077151, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.025 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.04 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762777411.548024, "end_time": 1764348570.077151, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.025 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.975, 0.025 ], "means": [ 0.10732695957984696 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.2263448409488353, 2.380347565729576, 0.8740035693174553, 1.4199167480157122, 0.5752526449589761, 0.3187952639815577, 0.58975555715375, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11399817092273035, 0.0, 0.01831563888873418, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289403.46587, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289403.46587, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.17756488886418553, 0.8224351111358145 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 321, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "OpenAI Inc., a Delaware 501(c)3 nonprofit corporation, was founded in late 2015. At its [inception](https://web.archive.org/web/20151222103150/https://openai.com/blog/introducing-openai/), OpenAI's mission and corporate structure were intended to maximize and broadly distribute the benefits of AI for humanity while minimizing the risks of such a potentially transformative—and possibly harmful—technology.\n\nThe [tumultuous events](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/OpenAI#2023%E2%80%93present:_Brief_departure_of_Altman_and_Brockman) of November 17-21, 2023 culminated in a [reconstitution](https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/22/sam-altmans-back-heres-whos-on-the-new-openai-board-and-whos-out.html) of the nonprofit's board of directors and, along with it, [speculation](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/22/technology/openai-board-capitalists.html) regarding whether the company's original mission and structure will remain intact." }, { "id": 20171, "title": "Will Huada Empyrean be publicly traded in 2026?", "short_title": "Huada Empyrean public in 2026", "url_title": "Huada Empyrean public in 2026", "slug": "huada-empyrean-public-in-2026", "author_id": 111541, "author_username": "DerMannOhneEigenschaften", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-11-24T16:13:37.081590Z", "published_at": "2023-12-06T11:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:58.070594Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-12-06T11:00:00Z", "comment_count": 9, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-01-29T14:14:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-29T14:14:00Z", "open_time": "2023-12-06T11:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 12, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2784, "type": "tournament", "name": "Chinese AI Chips", "slug": "chinese-ai-chips", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/cac-new_1.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-12-06T12:00:33Z", "close_date": "2033-01-02T23:59:33Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2033-01-01T11:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-28T16:30:32.190353Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-18T12:58:43.646361Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2784, "type": "tournament", "name": "Chinese AI Chips", "slug": "chinese-ai-chips", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/cac-new_1.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-12-06T12:00:33Z", "close_date": "2033-01-02T23:59:33Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2033-01-01T11:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-28T16:30:32.190353Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-18T12:58:43.646361Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2343, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI in China", "slug": "ai-in-china", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/ai-china.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-18T12:58:43.739351Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ] }, "question": { "id": 20171, "title": "Will Huada Empyrean be publicly traded in 2026?", "created_at": "2023-11-24T16:13:37.081590Z", "open_time": "2023-12-06T11:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-12-20T11:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-12-20T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-29T14:14:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-01-29T14:14:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T11:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-01-29T14:14:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The Chinese government is committed to indigenizing AI chip design and manufacture, having set it as a national priority and invested many billions of dollars in related ventures. While the Chinese semiconductor industry has had some notable successes in chip design and fabrication, it faces the formidable challenge of trying to replicate a highly advanced and globalized supply chain – currently spread out over Germany, Japan, the Netherlands, South Korea, Taiwan, the United States, and elsewhere – in one country alone.\n\nChip design has a number of critical dependencies. Most notably, it relies on electronic design automation (EDA) software for translating high-level designs into circuit layouts, and for simulating and validating chip architectures before they are fabricated. The EDA industry is dominated by three companies: Cadence (US), Synopsys (US), and Siemens EDA (US-based but German-owned). Chip designers also make use of core IP, pre-designed and verified components that can be licensed from vendors and integrated into designs. Core IP is offered as part of EDA suites, and also by dedicated core IP firms, the most prominent of which is Arm (UK). Chinese AI chip designers likely rely on foreign EDA software and core IP, both of which can, in some circumstances at least, be pirated.\n\nThe Chinese EDA industry is [small but growing](https://perma.cc/V6EN-U48B). Notable companies offering EDA suites include Empyrean Technology and Huawei. Chinese EDA firms have received major subsidies, and some have seen sales [grow by 30%](https://perma.cc/A8WC-MRL6) in the first three quarters of 2023. Empyrean [claims](https://perma.cc/H4L2-U3QM) that its EDA suite supports designs for chips at 7 nm, and Huawei [claims](https://perma.cc/6E4A-S7EA) its software supports designs for chips at 14 nm and above. However, Cadence, Synopsys, and Siemens EDA [still combine](https://perma.cc/A8WC-MRL6) for more than 80% of the Chinese market. To comply with [export controls](https://www.ecfr.gov/current/title-15/subtitle-B/chapter-VII/subchapter-C), American EDA firms must customize their tools to exclude support for gate-all-around field-effect transistor (GAAFET) designs when sold to Chinese customers.\n\nEmpyrean is currently private, but if it became listed on a public stock exchange, that would be an indication that it is doing well.\n\nFor more information, I have written a primer on [indigenously made Chinese AI chips](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1r-aLT67d2OQnuhZJZihkr0KxxB-PsDMKMut2flaYQ2c/edit?usp=sharing), intended to provide a useful introduction and reference for anyone interested in forecasting or learning more about China’s ability to indigenously produce AI chips. It explains some key concepts, provides an overview of the chip-making process, provides an overview of relevant export controls, and describes key inputs, context, and organizations relevant to understanding Chinese chip-making progress.", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve as **Yes** if [Huada Empyrean](https://finance.yahoo.com/company/huada-empyrean-software?h=eyJlIjoiaHVhZGEtZW1weXJlYW4tc29mdHdhcmUiLCJuIjoiSHVhZGEgRW1weXJlYW4gU29mdHdhcmUifQ==&.tsrc=fin-srch) is listed on a public stock exchange on January 1st, 2026. If not listed on that date, the question will resolve as **No**.", "fine_print": "A “public stock exchange” includes but is not limited to the Shanghai Stock Exchange, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, Nasdaq, and the New York Stock Exchange; we accept any regulated marketplace where company shares are publicly issued and traded.\n\nIf the company changes its name, it is still considered the same company, if and only if the name change can be confirmed via Wikipedia or credible news reports.\n\nIf the company is acquired by another company or undergoes a merger with another company, the question will be **annulled**. (Note that this excludes [special-purpose acquisition companies](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special-purpose_acquisition_company) (SPACs)).", "post_id": 20171, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1706280539.854825, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.36 ], "centers": [ 0.45 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.52 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1706280539.854825, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.36 ], "centers": [ 0.45 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.52 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.55, 0.45 ], "means": [ 0.45253155762782327 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7064993787569234, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6554110117958545, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4411588324588233, 0.0, 0.12874931591104752, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08508524734423982, 0.862882435577901, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.7394682331392083, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23128568172579037, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6286996658179782, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1706514482.978066, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1706514482.978066, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6678387851182983, 0.33216121488170175 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 47, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The Chinese government is committed to indigenizing AI chip design and manufacture, having set it as a national priority and invested many billions of dollars in related ventures. While the Chinese semiconductor industry has had some notable successes in chip design and fabrication, it faces the formidable challenge of trying to replicate a highly advanced and globalized supply chain – currently spread out over Germany, Japan, the Netherlands, South Korea, Taiwan, the United States, and elsewhere – in one country alone.\n\nChip design has a number of critical dependencies. Most notably, it relies on electronic design automation (EDA) software for translating high-level designs into circuit layouts, and for simulating and validating chip architectures before they are fabricated. The EDA industry is dominated by three companies: Cadence (US), Synopsys (US), and Siemens EDA (US-based but German-owned). Chip designers also make use of core IP, pre-designed and verified components that can be licensed from vendors and integrated into designs. Core IP is offered as part of EDA suites, and also by dedicated core IP firms, the most prominent of which is Arm (UK). Chinese AI chip designers likely rely on foreign EDA software and core IP, both of which can, in some circumstances at least, be pirated.\n\nThe Chinese EDA industry is [small but growing](https://perma.cc/V6EN-U48B). Notable companies offering EDA suites include Empyrean Technology and Huawei. Chinese EDA firms have received major subsidies, and some have seen sales [grow by 30%](https://perma.cc/A8WC-MRL6) in the first three quarters of 2023. Empyrean [claims](https://perma.cc/H4L2-U3QM) that its EDA suite supports designs for chips at 7 nm, and Huawei [claims](https://perma.cc/6E4A-S7EA) its software supports designs for chips at 14 nm and above. However, Cadence, Synopsys, and Siemens EDA [still combine](https://perma.cc/A8WC-MRL6) for more than 80% of the Chinese market. To comply with [export controls](https://www.ecfr.gov/current/title-15/subtitle-B/chapter-VII/subchapter-C), American EDA firms must customize their tools to exclude support for gate-all-around field-effect transistor (GAAFET) designs when sold to Chinese customers.\n\nEmpyrean is currently private, but if it became listed on a public stock exchange, that would be an indication that it is doing well.\n\nFor more information, I have written a primer on [indigenously made Chinese AI chips](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1r-aLT67d2OQnuhZJZihkr0KxxB-PsDMKMut2flaYQ2c/edit?usp=sharing), intended to provide a useful introduction and reference for anyone interested in forecasting or learning more about China’s ability to indigenously produce AI chips. It explains some key concepts, provides an overview of the chip-making process, provides an overview of relevant export controls, and describes key inputs, context, and organizations relevant to understanding Chinese chip-making progress." } ] }
