Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=3320
{ "count": 6366, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=3340", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=3300", "results": [ { "id": 20169, "title": "Will a Chinese fab achieve a process with a density of greater than 150M transistors per square millimeter by 2027?", "short_title": "Chinese fab with >150 MTr/mm² process by 2027", "url_title": "Chinese fab with >150 MTr/mm² process by 2027", "slug": "chinese-fab-with-150-mtrmm2-process-by-2027", "author_id": 111541, "author_username": "DerMannOhneEigenschaften", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-11-24T14:49:56.459591Z", "published_at": "2023-12-06T11:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-06T21:32:57.441187Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-12-06T11:00:00Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-01-01T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-12-06T11:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 29, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2784, "type": "tournament", "name": "Chinese AI Chips", "slug": "chinese-ai-chips", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/cac-new_1.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-12-06T12:00:33Z", "close_date": "2033-01-02T23:59:33Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2033-01-01T11:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-28T16:30:32.190353Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-18T12:58:43.646361Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2784, "type": "tournament", "name": "Chinese AI Chips", "slug": "chinese-ai-chips", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/cac-new_1.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-12-06T12:00:33Z", "close_date": "2033-01-02T23:59:33Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2033-01-01T11:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-28T16:30:32.190353Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-18T12:58:43.646361Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2343, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI in China", "slug": "ai-in-china", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/ai-china.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-18T12:58:43.739351Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ] }, "question": { "id": 20169, "title": "Will a Chinese fab achieve a process with a density of greater than 150M transistors per square millimeter by 2027?", "created_at": "2023-11-24T14:49:56.459591Z", "open_time": "2023-12-06T11:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-12-20T11:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-12-20T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-01-01T11:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2027-01-01T11:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In October 2022, the US instituted [new, wide-ranging export controls](https://www.csis.org/analysis/choking-chinas-access-future-ai) aimed at controlling a set of “chokepoint” technologies in the global semiconductor supply chain. China is one of the leading countries in AI, but AI advancements have historically run on compute, and China’s access to cost-competitive machine learning (ML) compute -- the Chinese AI industry currently relies in large part on AI chips designed and fabricated abroad, and in particular Nvidia GPUs -- is now in question.\n\nThe [US export controls](https://www.ecfr.gov/current/title-15/subtitle-B/chapter-VII/subchapter-C) prevent the export of high-performance AI chips to China, as well as the export of advanced tooling and materials used to make such chips. Still, one way for China to gain better access to cost-competitive ML compute is to indigenously produce high-quality AI chips. In 2015, China set out an ambitious plan aiming to bring the proportion of chips bought by Chinese firms that is domestically produced from 15% to 70% by 2025; as of 2021 [that number had gone up to 24%](https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/International-relations/US-China-tensions/U.S.-tech-curbs-threaten-China-s-quest-for-chip-independence). With the October restrictions -- and with US allies like Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, and the Netherlands enacting their own controls -- Chinese firms now face substantial challenges in their attempts to indigenize semiconductor production.\n\nChips are fabricated in “fabs” -- semiconductor fabrication plants where the chips are manufactured on silicon wafers. Notable Chinese semiconductor manufacturing companies include [Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC)](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/0981.HK?p=0981.HK&.tsrc=fin-srch) and [Hua Hong Semiconductor Limited](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/1347.HK?p=1347.HK&.tsrc=fin-srch).\n\nIn August 2023, Huawei launched a new smartphone [containing a chip that was fabricated on SMIC's 7 nm process](https://www.csis.org/analysis/chip-race-china-gives-huawei-steering-wheel-huaweis-new-smartphone-and-future), albeit with foreign-made equipment and materials. This process could fit [an estimated](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/7_nm_process) 113.6 million transistors per square millimeter (MTr/mm²). The most advanced process today is TSMC’s N3E, belonging to the 3 nm class, which can fit [an estimated](https://fuse.wikichip.org/news/7375/tsmc-n3-and-challenges-ahead/) 216 MTr/mm². (TSMC reached 150 MTr/mm² around 2021, and Samsung around 2022.)\n\nFor more information, I have written a primer on [indigenously made Chinese AI chips](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1r-aLT67d2OQnuhZJZihkr0KxxB-PsDMKMut2flaYQ2c/edit?usp=sharing), intended to provide a useful introduction and reference for anyone interested in forecasting or learning more about China’s ability to indigenously produce AI chips. It explains some key concepts, provides an overview of the chip-making process, provides an overview of relevant export controls, and describes key inputs, context, and organizations relevant to understanding Chinese chip-making progress.", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve as **Yes** if a Chinese fab has a process for a chip that is in production that is estimated to fit more than 150 MTr/mm², before January 1st, 2027. The question will resolve as **No** otherwise.\n\nIf the PRC annexes Taiwan, then annexed-Taiwan counts as being part of China (i.e., fabs in annexed-Taiwan are considered Chinese fabs).", "fine_print": "The question will be resolved by looking at [WikiChip](https://en.wikichip.org/wiki/3_nm_lithography_process) and [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/3_nm_process) (not only the linked pages, but also pages for other process nodes) and taking the highest value for an in-production chip backed by a sourced estimate that appears for a Chinese fab, if density estimates are generally available. If density estimates are not generally available, the question will be **annulled**. A sourced estimate will be one appearing on the wiki page and linking to or otherwise backed by a credible external source. See the last section in the fine print for more details.\n\n\"In-production\" means the chip must have at least entered [\"risk-production\"](https://www.extremetech.com/computing/320460-apple-tsmc-on-track-to-move-3nm-into-risk-production-by-the-end-of-2021#:~:text=%22Risk%20production%22%20is,overall%20foundry%20timelines.).\n\nA “Chinese fab” is a semiconductor fabrication facility located in China and owned by a company that is headquartered in China. “China” includes mainland China, Hong Kong, and Macao (but not Taiwan).\n\n**Note:** The details described below for assessing the density estimates alongside the availability of information are to avoid having a component of the probabilities for this question represent the likelihood of relevant estimates being published. The procedure should result in the question being **annulled** if density estimates generally are not available for Chinese fabs, so that forecasters can just predict on the probability that a Chinese fab will achieve such a density without giving (much) consideration to whether estimates will be published.\n\nSpecifically, the following procedure will be used to assess the density estimates and their general availability:\n\n* Chinese fabs will be identified on the wiki pages for potentially qualifying process nodes.\n* If there are no Chinese fabs listed for the process nodes that could potentially have the required density this question will resolve as **No**.\n* Otherwise if a Chinese fab is listed, and one or more of the listed processes for the Chinese lab contains a sourced estimate for an in-production chip exceeding 150 MTr/mm², the question resolves as **Yes**.\n* Otherwise, if 50% or more of the processes for Chinese fabs listed under the potentially qualifying nodes have credible estimates available, and none of these contains a sourced estimate exceeding 150 MTr/mm², this question will resolve as **No**.\n* Otherwise, the question will be **annulled**.", "post_id": 20169, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762464767.006475, "end_time": 1764151034.044, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.76 ], "centers": [ 0.79 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.82 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762464767.006475, "end_time": 1764151034.044, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.76 ], "centers": [ 0.79 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.82 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.20999999999999996, 0.79 ], "means": [ 0.7479218135322655 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6537484749236214, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.27467474026865935, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17522973636453743, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09754477024200368, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13404139897044384, 0.22188647333713657, 0.0, 0.47632380816539127, 2.432995783282801, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0644634174904052, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4012260631462153, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0918699349948755 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287937.453364, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287937.453364, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.35526706146471243, 0.6447329385352876 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 10, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 121, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In October 2022, the US instituted [new, wide-ranging export controls](https://www.csis.org/analysis/choking-chinas-access-future-ai) aimed at controlling a set of “chokepoint” technologies in the global semiconductor supply chain. China is one of the leading countries in AI, but AI advancements have historically run on compute, and China’s access to cost-competitive machine learning (ML) compute -- the Chinese AI industry currently relies in large part on AI chips designed and fabricated abroad, and in particular Nvidia GPUs -- is now in question.\n\nThe [US export controls](https://www.ecfr.gov/current/title-15/subtitle-B/chapter-VII/subchapter-C) prevent the export of high-performance AI chips to China, as well as the export of advanced tooling and materials used to make such chips. Still, one way for China to gain better access to cost-competitive ML compute is to indigenously produce high-quality AI chips. In 2015, China set out an ambitious plan aiming to bring the proportion of chips bought by Chinese firms that is domestically produced from 15% to 70% by 2025; as of 2021 [that number had gone up to 24%](https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/International-relations/US-China-tensions/U.S.-tech-curbs-threaten-China-s-quest-for-chip-independence). With the October restrictions -- and with US allies like Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, and the Netherlands enacting their own controls -- Chinese firms now face substantial challenges in their attempts to indigenize semiconductor production.\n\nChips are fabricated in “fabs” -- semiconductor fabrication plants where the chips are manufactured on silicon wafers. Notable Chinese semiconductor manufacturing companies include [Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC)](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/0981.HK?p=0981.HK&.tsrc=fin-srch) and [Hua Hong Semiconductor Limited](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/1347.HK?p=1347.HK&.tsrc=fin-srch).\n\nIn August 2023, Huawei launched a new smartphone [containing a chip that was fabricated on SMIC's 7 nm process](https://www.csis.org/analysis/chip-race-china-gives-huawei-steering-wheel-huaweis-new-smartphone-and-future), albeit with foreign-made equipment and materials. This process could fit [an estimated](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/7_nm_process) 113.6 million transistors per square millimeter (MTr/mm²). The most advanced process today is TSMC’s N3E, belonging to the 3 nm class, which can fit [an estimated](https://fuse.wikichip.org/news/7375/tsmc-n3-and-challenges-ahead/) 216 MTr/mm². (TSMC reached 150 MTr/mm² around 2021, and Samsung around 2022.)\n\nFor more information, I have written a primer on [indigenously made Chinese AI chips](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1r-aLT67d2OQnuhZJZihkr0KxxB-PsDMKMut2flaYQ2c/edit?usp=sharing), intended to provide a useful introduction and reference for anyone interested in forecasting or learning more about China’s ability to indigenously produce AI chips. It explains some key concepts, provides an overview of the chip-making process, provides an overview of relevant export controls, and describes key inputs, context, and organizations relevant to understanding Chinese chip-making progress." }, { "id": 20157, "title": "Will any Chinese semiconductor foundry have 20% or more global semiconductor market share before 2033?", "short_title": "Chinese foundry with ≥20% of semi market?", "url_title": "Chinese foundry with ≥20% of semi market?", "slug": "chinese-foundry-with-20-of-semi-market", "author_id": 111541, "author_username": "DerMannOhneEigenschaften", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-11-24T13:33:56.558355Z", "published_at": "2023-12-06T11:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-06T21:31:23.996093Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-12-06T11:00:00Z", "comment_count": 7, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2033-01-01T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2033-03-01T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-12-06T11:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 55, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2784, "type": "tournament", "name": "Chinese AI Chips", "slug": "chinese-ai-chips", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/cac-new_1.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-12-06T12:00:33Z", "close_date": "2033-01-02T23:59:33Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2033-01-01T11:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-28T16:30:32.190353Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-18T12:58:43.646361Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2784, "type": "tournament", "name": "Chinese AI Chips", "slug": "chinese-ai-chips", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/cac-new_1.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-12-06T12:00:33Z", "close_date": "2033-01-02T23:59:33Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2033-01-01T11:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-28T16:30:32.190353Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-18T12:58:43.646361Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2343, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI in China", "slug": "ai-in-china", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/ai-china.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-18T12:58:43.739351Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ] }, "question": { "id": 20157, "title": "Will any Chinese semiconductor foundry have 20% or more global semiconductor market share before 2033?", "created_at": "2023-11-24T13:33:56.558355Z", "open_time": "2023-12-06T11:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-12-20T11:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-12-20T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2033-03-01T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2033-01-01T11:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2033-01-01T11:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In October 2022, the US instituted [new, wide-ranging export controls](https://www.csis.org/analysis/choking-chinas-access-future-ai) aimed at controlling a set of “chokepoint” technologies in the global semiconductor supply chain. China is one of the leading countries in AI, but AI advancements have historically run on compute, and China’s access to cost-competitive machine learning (ML) compute — the Chinese AI industry currently relies in large part on AI chips designed and fabricated abroad, and in particular Nvidia GPUs — is now in question.\n\nThe [US export controls](https://www.ecfr.gov/current/title-15/subtitle-B/chapter-VII/subchapter-C) prevent the export of high-performance AI chips to China, as well as the export of advanced tooling and materials used to make such chips. Still, one way for China to gain better access to cost-competitive ML compute is to indigenously produce high-quality AI chips. In 2015, China set out an ambitious plan aiming to bring the proportion of chips bought by Chinese firms that is domestically produced from 15% to 70% by 2025; as of 2021 [that number had gone up to 24%](https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/International-relations/US-China-tensions/U.S.-tech-curbs-threaten-China-s-quest-for-chip-independence). With the October restrictions — and with US allies like Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, and the Netherlands enacting their own controls — Chinese firms now face substantial challenges in their attempts to indigenize semiconductor production.\n\nChips are fabricated in “fabs” — semiconductor fabrication plants where the chips are manufactured on silicon wafers. Fabs are generally owned and operated by “(pure-play) foundries” — companies that specialize in chip fabrication for clients (who design the chips) on a contractual basis. (The alternative to the foundry model is an integrated device manufacturer (ISM) which both designs and fabricates chips. Examples of ISMs include Intel and SK Hynix.)\n\nThe most famous, advanced, and profitable foundry is [Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC)](https://www.google.com/finance/quote/2330:TPE) which in Q1 2023 had a [market share](https://www.trendforce.com/presscenter/news/20230612-11719.html) of 60.1%. As of May 2023, TSMC has a market cap of 15T TWD ($470B). Notable Chinese foundries include [Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC)](https://www.google.com/finance/quote/688981:SHA) (Q1 2023 market share: 5.3%) and [Hua Hong Semiconductor Limited](https://www.google.com/finance/quote/1347:HKG) (Q1 2023 market share: 3.0%). Due to the October export controls, SMIC and Hua Hong are cut off from much of the cutting-edge equipment and materials necessary to fabricate advanced chips.\n\nFor more information, I have written a primer on [indigenously made Chinese AI chips](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1r-aLT67d2OQnuhZJZihkr0KxxB-PsDMKMut2flaYQ2c/edit?usp=sharing), intended to provide a useful introduction and reference for anyone interested in forecasting or learning more about China’s ability to indigenously produce AI chips. It explains some key concepts, provides an overview of the chip-making process, provides an overview of relevant export controls, and describes key inputs, context, and organizations relevant to understanding Chinese chip-making progress.", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve as **Yes** if any Chinese semiconductor foundry has 20% or more semiconductor foundry revenue market share in any one quarter before January 1st, 2033. The question will resolve as **No** otherwise.", "fine_print": "A “Chinese semiconductor foundry” is a firm that (a) primarily fabricates semiconductors for customers, and (b) is headquartered in China. (It can be a subsidiary of another firm so long as those conditions are met.) The most prominent examples currently are SMIC and Hua Hong.\n\nIf the PRC annexes Taiwan, then annexed-Taiwan, including the chips being produced there, counts as being part of China.\n\nThe question will be resolved using data from Statista or, if that isn’t available, from another credible source.", "post_id": 20157, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763292165.678191, "end_time": 1763808199.663369, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.67 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.72 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763292165.678191, "end_time": 1763808199.663369, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.67 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.72 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.30000000000000004, 0.7 ], "means": [ 0.6810468581218243 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0339977085555509, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20427029069544175, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007978922554691365, 0.10802413340346607, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5164243448565304, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03376250822308147, 0.06934409839582649, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6403200895653883, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16026094357950826, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12377442688140071, 0.0, 0.31964760159434596, 0.04136994682833595, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05895670636563755, 0.7091901668225766, 0.0, 0.8402148505771252, 3.1768098485265464, 0.0, 0.6768449047310485, 0.0, 0.4809786573605918, 0.14114485879589025, 0.0, 0.3937762559534268, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.080917342808261, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3546986461007315 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287850.110762, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 45, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287850.110762, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 45, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6223981485356453, 0.3776018514643546 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 12, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 126, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In October 2022, the US instituted [new, wide-ranging export controls](https://www.csis.org/analysis/choking-chinas-access-future-ai) aimed at controlling a set of “chokepoint” technologies in the global semiconductor supply chain. China is one of the leading countries in AI, but AI advancements have historically run on compute, and China’s access to cost-competitive machine learning (ML) compute — the Chinese AI industry currently relies in large part on AI chips designed and fabricated abroad, and in particular Nvidia GPUs — is now in question.\n\nThe [US export controls](https://www.ecfr.gov/current/title-15/subtitle-B/chapter-VII/subchapter-C) prevent the export of high-performance AI chips to China, as well as the export of advanced tooling and materials used to make such chips. Still, one way for China to gain better access to cost-competitive ML compute is to indigenously produce high-quality AI chips. In 2015, China set out an ambitious plan aiming to bring the proportion of chips bought by Chinese firms that is domestically produced from 15% to 70% by 2025; as of 2021 [that number had gone up to 24%](https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/International-relations/US-China-tensions/U.S.-tech-curbs-threaten-China-s-quest-for-chip-independence). With the October restrictions — and with US allies like Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, and the Netherlands enacting their own controls — Chinese firms now face substantial challenges in their attempts to indigenize semiconductor production.\n\nChips are fabricated in “fabs” — semiconductor fabrication plants where the chips are manufactured on silicon wafers. Fabs are generally owned and operated by “(pure-play) foundries” — companies that specialize in chip fabrication for clients (who design the chips) on a contractual basis. (The alternative to the foundry model is an integrated device manufacturer (ISM) which both designs and fabricates chips. Examples of ISMs include Intel and SK Hynix.)\n\nThe most famous, advanced, and profitable foundry is [Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC)](https://www.google.com/finance/quote/2330:TPE) which in Q1 2023 had a [market share](https://www.trendforce.com/presscenter/news/20230612-11719.html) of 60.1%. As of May 2023, TSMC has a market cap of 15T TWD ($470B). Notable Chinese foundries include [Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC)](https://www.google.com/finance/quote/688981:SHA) (Q1 2023 market share: 5.3%) and [Hua Hong Semiconductor Limited](https://www.google.com/finance/quote/1347:HKG) (Q1 2023 market share: 3.0%). Due to the October export controls, SMIC and Hua Hong are cut off from much of the cutting-edge equipment and materials necessary to fabricate advanced chips.\n\nFor more information, I have written a primer on [indigenously made Chinese AI chips](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1r-aLT67d2OQnuhZJZihkr0KxxB-PsDMKMut2flaYQ2c/edit?usp=sharing), intended to provide a useful introduction and reference for anyone interested in forecasting or learning more about China’s ability to indigenously produce AI chips. It explains some key concepts, provides an overview of the chip-making process, provides an overview of relevant export controls, and describes key inputs, context, and organizations relevant to understanding Chinese chip-making progress." }, { "id": 20146, "title": "Will a Chinese fab have a volume production process that uses EUV photolithography before 2033?", "short_title": "Chinese volume production using EUV by 2033?", "url_title": "Chinese volume production using EUV by 2033?", "slug": "chinese-volume-production-using-euv-by-2033", "author_id": 111541, "author_username": "DerMannOhneEigenschaften", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-11-24T13:08:16.005256Z", "published_at": "2023-12-06T11:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-11T03:26:00.103826Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-12-06T11:00:00Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2033-01-01T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2033-01-01T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-12-06T11:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 36, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2784, "type": "tournament", "name": "Chinese AI Chips", "slug": "chinese-ai-chips", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/cac-new_1.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-12-06T12:00:33Z", "close_date": "2033-01-02T23:59:33Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2033-01-01T11:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-28T16:30:32.190353Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-18T12:58:43.646361Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2784, "type": "tournament", "name": "Chinese AI Chips", "slug": "chinese-ai-chips", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/cac-new_1.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-12-06T12:00:33Z", "close_date": "2033-01-02T23:59:33Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2033-01-01T11:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-28T16:30:32.190353Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-18T12:58:43.646361Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2343, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI in China", "slug": "ai-in-china", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/ai-china.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-18T12:58:43.739351Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ] }, "question": { "id": 20146, "title": "Will a Chinese fab have a volume production process that uses EUV photolithography before 2033?", "created_at": "2023-11-24T13:08:16.005256Z", "open_time": "2023-12-06T11:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-12-20T11:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-12-20T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2033-01-01T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2033-01-01T11:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2033-01-01T11:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In October 2022, the US instituted [new, wide-ranging export controls](https://www.csis.org/analysis/choking-chinas-access-future-ai) aimed at controlling a set of “chokepoint” technologies in the global semiconductor supply chain. China is one of the leading countries in AI, but AI advancements have historically run on compute, and China’s access to cost-competitive machine learning (ML) compute — the Chinese AI industry currently relies in large part on AI chips designed and fabricated abroad, and in particular Nvidia GPUs — is now in question.\n\nThe [US export controls](https://www.ecfr.gov/current/title-15/subtitle-B/chapter-VII/subchapter-C) prevent the export of high-performance AI chips to China, as well as the export of advanced tooling and materials used to make such chips. Still, one way for China to gain better access to cost-competitive ML compute is to indigenously produce high-quality AI chips. In 2015, China set out an ambitious plan aiming to bring the proportion of chips bought by Chinese firms that is domestically produced from 15% to 70% by 2025; as of 2021 [that number had gone up to 24%](https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/International-relations/US-China-tensions/U.S.-tech-curbs-threaten-China-s-quest-for-chip-independence). With the October restrictions — and with US allies like Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, and the Netherlands enacting their own controls — Chinese firms now face substantial challenges in their attempts to indigenize semiconductor production.\n\nChips are fabricated in “fabs” — semiconductor fabrication plants where the chips are manufactured on silicon wafers. Notable Chinese semiconductor manufacturing companies include [Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC)](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/0981.HK?p=0981.HK&.tsrc=fin-srch) and [Hua Hong Semiconductor Limited](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/1347.HK?p=1347.HK&.tsrc=fin-srch).\n\nCritically, SMIC and Hua Hong rely on foreign-made [photolithography](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Photolithography) machines, in particular deep ultraviolet (DUV) immersion machines made by ASML (the Netherlands) and Nikon (Japan). These devices are some of the most complex machinery ever made by humans. The most advanced type of photolithography machine – extreme ultraviolet (EUV) – is produced only by ASML, and took three decades to develop. As [Miller](https://www.christophermiller.net/semiconductors-1) writes, “EUV machines have multiple components that, on their own, constitute epically complex engineering challenges. Replicating just the laser in an EUV system requires perfectly identifying and assembling 457,329 parts. A single defect could cause debilitating delays or reliability problems.” Dutch export controls prohibit ASML from exporting EUV (and some DUV) lithography machines to China.\n\n(This question concerns volume production. Usually, a company will begin by producing small volumes of chips on a new process, called \"risk production\", and only later scale up once the process has been refined. For reference, [it took TSMC](https://www.semianalysis.com/p/semiconductor-fab-buildout-delays) about a year to reach 45,000 wafers per month after the initial shipment from its N3 process node, and about six months for each of its N5 and N7 processes to do the same.)\n\nChina’s major photolithography maker is Shanghai Micro Electronics Equipment (SMEE), founded in the early 2000s. SMEE [markets](http://www.smee.com.cn/eis.pub?service=homepageService&method=indexinfo&onclicknodeno=1_4_4_1) krypton fluoride (KrF) and argon fluoride (ArF) dry steppers for mature process nodes, but these either aren’t ready for mass production and/or are far behind (>15 years) Dutch and Japanese KrF and ArF machines in terms of resolution, throughput, and quality. SMEE does not market any more advanced argon fluoride immersion (ArFi) machines, let alone any EUV machines.\n\nFor more information, I have written a primer on [indigenously made Chinese AI chips](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1r-aLT67d2OQnuhZJZihkr0KxxB-PsDMKMut2flaYQ2c/edit?usp=sharing), intended to provide a useful introduction and reference for anyone interested in forecasting or learning more about China’s ability to indigenously produce AI chips. It explains some key concepts, provides an overview of the chip-making process, provides an overview of relevant export controls, and describes key inputs, context, and organizations relevant to understanding Chinese chip-making progress.", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve as **Yes** if a Chinese fab has achieved volume production using extreme ultraviolet (EUV) photolithography before January 1st, 2033. The question will resolve as **No** otherwise. If the PRC annexes Taiwan, then annexed-Taiwan counts as being part of China (i.e., fabs in annexed-Taiwan are considered Chinese fabs).\n\nThe question resolves as **Yes** if and only if credible sources report that a Chinese fab has achieved volume production using EUV photolithography, and/or if the fab itself claims it produces 50,000 or more wafers per month using EUV photolithography. The news reports must mention that the fab has achieved “(high) volume production” or “mass production”.", "fine_print": "A “Chinese fab” is a semiconductor fabrication facility located in China and owned by a company that is headquartered in China. “China” includes mainland China, Hong Kong, and Macao (but not Taiwan). If the PRC annexes Taiwan, then annexed-Taiwan counts as being part of China (i.e., fabs in annexed-Taiwan are considered Chinese fabs).", "post_id": 20146, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763055084.377373, "end_time": 1764326557.110665, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.87 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763055084.377373, "end_time": 1764326557.110665, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.87 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.09999999999999998, 0.9 ], "means": [ 0.8387823388677964 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14417292188463762, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29345347581623216, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.057099978657575844, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.90572503390162, 0.0, 0.045093394185345845, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5342541811581952, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16823478873740735, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.016588932653428593, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22459236340393357, 0.0, 1.6645775164919736, 1.1245867352669183, 0.0, 0.4770563933391733, 0.0, 0.6341865087632201, 0.19496837784713386, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.2292249657992698 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287083.615452, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287083.615452, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.21461347772413664, 0.7853865222758634 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 11, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 110, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In October 2022, the US instituted [new, wide-ranging export controls](https://www.csis.org/analysis/choking-chinas-access-future-ai) aimed at controlling a set of “chokepoint” technologies in the global semiconductor supply chain. China is one of the leading countries in AI, but AI advancements have historically run on compute, and China’s access to cost-competitive machine learning (ML) compute — the Chinese AI industry currently relies in large part on AI chips designed and fabricated abroad, and in particular Nvidia GPUs — is now in question.\n\nThe [US export controls](https://www.ecfr.gov/current/title-15/subtitle-B/chapter-VII/subchapter-C) prevent the export of high-performance AI chips to China, as well as the export of advanced tooling and materials used to make such chips. Still, one way for China to gain better access to cost-competitive ML compute is to indigenously produce high-quality AI chips. In 2015, China set out an ambitious plan aiming to bring the proportion of chips bought by Chinese firms that is domestically produced from 15% to 70% by 2025; as of 2021 [that number had gone up to 24%](https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/International-relations/US-China-tensions/U.S.-tech-curbs-threaten-China-s-quest-for-chip-independence). With the October restrictions — and with US allies like Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, and the Netherlands enacting their own controls — Chinese firms now face substantial challenges in their attempts to indigenize semiconductor production.\n\nChips are fabricated in “fabs” — semiconductor fabrication plants where the chips are manufactured on silicon wafers. Notable Chinese semiconductor manufacturing companies include [Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC)](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/0981.HK?p=0981.HK&.tsrc=fin-srch) and [Hua Hong Semiconductor Limited](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/1347.HK?p=1347.HK&.tsrc=fin-srch).\n\nCritically, SMIC and Hua Hong rely on foreign-made [photolithography](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Photolithography) machines, in particular deep ultraviolet (DUV) immersion machines made by ASML (the Netherlands) and Nikon (Japan). These devices are some of the most complex machinery ever made by humans. The most advanced type of photolithography machine – extreme ultraviolet (EUV) – is produced only by ASML, and took three decades to develop. As [Miller](https://www.christophermiller.net/semiconductors-1) writes, “EUV machines have multiple components that, on their own, constitute epically complex engineering challenges. Replicating just the laser in an EUV system requires perfectly identifying and assembling 457,329 parts. A single defect could cause debilitating delays or reliability problems.” Dutch export controls prohibit ASML from exporting EUV (and some DUV) lithography machines to China.\n\n(This question concerns volume production. Usually, a company will begin by producing small volumes of chips on a new process, called \"risk production\", and only later scale up once the process has been refined. For reference, [it took TSMC](https://www.semianalysis.com/p/semiconductor-fab-buildout-delays) about a year to reach 45,000 wafers per month after the initial shipment from its N3 process node, and about six months for each of its N5 and N7 processes to do the same.)\n\nChina’s major photolithography maker is Shanghai Micro Electronics Equipment (SMEE), founded in the early 2000s. SMEE [markets](http://www.smee.com.cn/eis.pub?service=homepageService&method=indexinfo&onclicknodeno=1_4_4_1) krypton fluoride (KrF) and argon fluoride (ArF) dry steppers for mature process nodes, but these either aren’t ready for mass production and/or are far behind (>15 years) Dutch and Japanese KrF and ArF machines in terms of resolution, throughput, and quality. SMEE does not market any more advanced argon fluoride immersion (ArFi) machines, let alone any EUV machines.\n\nFor more information, I have written a primer on [indigenously made Chinese AI chips](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1r-aLT67d2OQnuhZJZihkr0KxxB-PsDMKMut2flaYQ2c/edit?usp=sharing), intended to provide a useful introduction and reference for anyone interested in forecasting or learning more about China’s ability to indigenously produce AI chips. It explains some key concepts, provides an overview of the chip-making process, provides an overview of relevant export controls, and describes key inputs, context, and organizations relevant to understanding Chinese chip-making progress." }, { "id": 20136, "title": "Will any Chinese semiconductor foundry have at least 20% of the market cap that TSMC has in 2028?", "short_title": "Chinese foundry with ≥0.2x of TSMC market cap", "url_title": "Chinese foundry with ≥0.2x of TSMC market cap", "slug": "chinese-foundry-with-02x-of-tsmc-market-cap", "author_id": 111541, "author_username": "DerMannOhneEigenschaften", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-11-24T10:48:16.728916Z", "published_at": "2023-12-06T11:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-06T21:31:42.400815Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-12-06T11:00:00Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2028-01-01T11:00:00Z", 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"Will any Chinese semiconductor foundry have at least 20% of the market cap that TSMC has in 2028?", "created_at": "2023-11-24T10:48:16.728916Z", "open_time": "2023-12-06T11:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-12-20T11:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-12-20T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-01-01T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2028-01-01T11:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2028-01-01T11:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In October 2022, the US instituted [new, wide-ranging export controls](https://www.csis.org/analysis/choking-chinas-access-future-ai) aimed at controlling a set of “chokepoint” technologies in the global semiconductor supply chain. China is one of the leading countries in AI, but AI advancements have historically run on compute, and China’s access to cost-competitive machine learning (ML) compute — the Chinese AI industry currently relies in large part on AI chips designed and fabricated abroad, and in particular Nvidia GPUs — is now in question.\n\nThe [US export controls](https://www.ecfr.gov/current/title-15/subtitle-B/chapter-VII/subchapter-C) prevent the export of high-performance AI chips to China, as well as the export of advanced tooling and materials used to make such chips. Still, one way for China to gain better access to cost-competitive ML compute is to indigenously produce high-quality AI chips. In 2015, China set out an ambitious plan aiming to bring the proportion of chips bought by Chinese firms that is domestically produced from 15% to 70% by 2025; as of 2021 [that number had gone up to 24%](https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/International-relations/US-China-tensions/U.S.-tech-curbs-threaten-China-s-quest-for-chip-independence). With the October restrictions — and with US allies like Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, and the Netherlands enacting their own controls — Chinese firms now face substantial challenges in their attempts to indigenize semiconductor production.\n\nChips are fabricated in “fabs” — semiconductor fabrication plants where the chips are manufactured on silicon wafers. Fabs are generally owned and operated by “(pure-play) foundries” — companies that specialize in chip fabrication for clients (who design the chips) on a contractual basis. (The alternative to the foundry model is an integrated device manufacturer (ISM) which both designs and fabricates chips. Examples of ISMs include Intel and SK Hynix.)\n\nThe most famous, advanced, and profitable foundry is [Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC)](https://www.google.com/finance/quote/2330:TPE) As of May 2023, TSMC has a market cap of 15T TWD ($470B). Notable Chinese foundries include [Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC)](https://www.google.com/finance/quote/688981:SHA) and [Hua Hong Semiconductor Limited](https://www.google.com/finance/quote/1347:HKG), which have market caps of 220B CNY ($31B) and 43B HKD ($5.5B) respectively, meaning 7% and 1% of TSMC.\n\nFor more information, I have written a primer on [indigenously made Chinese AI chips](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1r-aLT67d2OQnuhZJZihkr0KxxB-PsDMKMut2flaYQ2c/edit?usp=sharing), intended to provide a useful introduction and reference for anyone interested in forecasting or learning more about China’s ability to indigenously produce AI chips. It explains some key concepts, provides an overview of the chip-making process, provides an overview of relevant export controls, and describes key inputs, context, and organizations relevant to understanding Chinese chip-making progress.", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve as **Yes** if any Chinese semiconductor foundry has a market cap (measured in US dollars) that is at least 20% as large as the market capitalization of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), on January 1st, 2028. The question will resolve as **No** if no Chinese foundry has a market capitalization that is 20% ore more of TSMC’s market cap, on that same date. If TSMC no longer exists, or if it is no longer publicly traded, the question will be annulled.", "fine_print": "A “Chinese semiconductor foundry” is a firm that (a) primarily fabricates semiconductors for customers, and (b) is headquartered in China. (It can be a subsidiary of another firm so long as those conditions are met.) The most prominent examples currently are SMIC and Hua Hong.\n\nIf the PRC annexes Taiwan, then annexed-Taiwan counts as being part of China (i.e., foundries in annexed-Taiwan — including TSMC, if it still exists — are considered Chinese foundries).\n\nTo determine each firm’s “market capitalization”, we use figures reported by [Google Finance](https://www.google.com/finance/), or, if those are not available, by another reputable source. If a firm is listed on multiple exchanges, we use whatever is the firm’s maximum market capitalization on any exchange.", "post_id": 20136, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763235926.625, "end_time": 1764154550.762, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.33 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.38 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763235926.625, "end_time": 1764154550.762, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.33 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.38 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6699999999999999, 0.33 ], "means": [ 0.3887342136115408 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13230489461434952, 0.0, 0.2294348988188281, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0539335678308492, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6606319956815507, 0.0, 0.0, 3.1481756380687638, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0844043823626969, 0.0, 0.7949347303552422, 0.0, 0.10687792566038573, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06456484912809458, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.36493561440074684, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03105063701600968, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7965749507195446 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288762.09922, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 36, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288762.09922, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 36, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.859013224164868, 0.140986775835132 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 12, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 158, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In October 2022, the US instituted [new, wide-ranging export controls](https://www.csis.org/analysis/choking-chinas-access-future-ai) aimed at controlling a set of “chokepoint” technologies in the global semiconductor supply chain. China is one of the leading countries in AI, but AI advancements have historically run on compute, and China’s access to cost-competitive machine learning (ML) compute — the Chinese AI industry currently relies in large part on AI chips designed and fabricated abroad, and in particular Nvidia GPUs — is now in question.\n\nThe [US export controls](https://www.ecfr.gov/current/title-15/subtitle-B/chapter-VII/subchapter-C) prevent the export of high-performance AI chips to China, as well as the export of advanced tooling and materials used to make such chips. Still, one way for China to gain better access to cost-competitive ML compute is to indigenously produce high-quality AI chips. In 2015, China set out an ambitious plan aiming to bring the proportion of chips bought by Chinese firms that is domestically produced from 15% to 70% by 2025; as of 2021 [that number had gone up to 24%](https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/International-relations/US-China-tensions/U.S.-tech-curbs-threaten-China-s-quest-for-chip-independence). With the October restrictions — and with US allies like Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, and the Netherlands enacting their own controls — Chinese firms now face substantial challenges in their attempts to indigenize semiconductor production.\n\nChips are fabricated in “fabs” — semiconductor fabrication plants where the chips are manufactured on silicon wafers. Fabs are generally owned and operated by “(pure-play) foundries” — companies that specialize in chip fabrication for clients (who design the chips) on a contractual basis. (The alternative to the foundry model is an integrated device manufacturer (ISM) which both designs and fabricates chips. Examples of ISMs include Intel and SK Hynix.)\n\nThe most famous, advanced, and profitable foundry is [Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC)](https://www.google.com/finance/quote/2330:TPE) As of May 2023, TSMC has a market cap of 15T TWD ($470B). Notable Chinese foundries include [Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC)](https://www.google.com/finance/quote/688981:SHA) and [Hua Hong Semiconductor Limited](https://www.google.com/finance/quote/1347:HKG), which have market caps of 220B CNY ($31B) and 43B HKD ($5.5B) respectively, meaning 7% and 1% of TSMC.\n\nFor more information, I have written a primer on [indigenously made Chinese AI chips](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1r-aLT67d2OQnuhZJZihkr0KxxB-PsDMKMut2flaYQ2c/edit?usp=sharing), intended to provide a useful introduction and reference for anyone interested in forecasting or learning more about China’s ability to indigenously produce AI chips. It explains some key concepts, provides an overview of the chip-making process, provides an overview of relevant export controls, and describes key inputs, context, and organizations relevant to understanding Chinese chip-making progress." }, { "id": 20135, "title": "Will a Chinese firm market an EUV photolithography machine before 2033?", "short_title": "Chinese EUV machine marketed by 2033?", "url_title": "Chinese EUV machine marketed by 2033?", "slug": "chinese-euv-machine-marketed-by-2033", "author_id": 111541, "author_username": "DerMannOhneEigenschaften", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-11-24T10:38:48.175836Z", "published_at": "2023-12-06T11:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-06T21:32:50.772023Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-12-06T11:00:00Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2033-01-01T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2033-01-01T11:00:00Z", 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}, "category": [ { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2343, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI in China", "slug": "ai-in-china", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/ai-china.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-18T12:58:43.739351Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ] }, "question": { "id": 20135, "title": "Will a Chinese firm market an EUV photolithography machine before 2033?", "created_at": "2023-11-24T10:38:48.175836Z", "open_time": "2023-12-06T11:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-12-20T11:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-12-20T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2033-01-01T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2033-01-01T11:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2033-01-01T11:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In October 2022, the US instituted [new, wide-ranging export controls](https://www.csis.org/analysis/choking-chinas-access-future-ai) aimed at controlling a set of “chokepoint” technologies in the global semiconductor supply chain. China is one of the leading countries in AI, but AI advancements have historically run on compute, and China’s access to cost-competitive machine learning (ML) compute — the Chinese AI industry currently relies in large part on AI chips designed and fabricated abroad, and in particular Nvidia GPUs — is now in question.\n\nThe [US export controls](https://www.ecfr.gov/current/title-15/subtitle-B/chapter-VII/subchapter-C) prevent the export of high-performance AI chips to China, as well as the export of advanced tooling and materials used to make such chips. Still, one way for China to gain better access to cost-competitive ML compute is to indigenously produce high-quality AI chips. In 2015, China set out an ambitious plan aiming to bring the proportion of chips bought by Chinese firms that is domestically produced from 15% to 70% by 2025; as of 2021 [that number had gone up to 24%](https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/International-relations/US-China-tensions/U.S.-tech-curbs-threaten-China-s-quest-for-chip-independence). With the October restrictions — and with US allies like Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, and the Netherlands enacting their own controls — Chinese firms now face substantial challenges in their attempts to indigenize semiconductor production.\n\nSome of the most important inputs into the chip-making process is semiconductor manufacturing equipment (SME) – highly complex and specialized tools essential to the chip-making process. (Other important inputs include specialized materials, software, and more generally capital, talent, and know-how.) Many of these tools — including most tools necessary for producing the most advanced chips — are prohibited from being exported to China.\n\nIn particular, the most important type of SME is photolithography machines, which are some of the most complex machinery ever made by humans. These machines expose a photomask (which holds the pattern that needs to be etched onto the silicon wafer) to light; the patterned light then reaches a photoresist material on the wafer. The exposed parts of the photoresist dissolve or harden, and the remaining parts can be removed to yield a mask for the next deposition or etching steps that form the chip’s circuits.\n\nThe most advanced type of photolithography machine used today is extreme ultraviolet (EUV) photolithography. As [Miller](https://www.christophermiller.net/semiconductors-1) writes, “EUV machines have multiple components that, on their own, constitute epically complex engineering challenges. Replicating just the laser in an EUV system requires perfectly identifying and assembling 457,329 parts. A single defect could cause debilitating delays or reliability problems.” The photolithography industry is dominated by the Dutch company ASML, which currently has a monopoly on EUV machines.\n\nChina’s major photolithography maker is Shanghai Micro Electronics Equipment (SMEE), founded in the early 2000s. SMEE [markets](http://www.smee.com.cn/eis.pub?service=homepageService&method=indexinfo&onclicknodeno=1_4_4_1) krypton fluoride (KrF) and argon fluoride (ArF) dry steppers for mature process nodes, but these either aren’t ready for mass production and/or are far behind (>15 years) Dutch and Japanese KrF and ArF machines in terms of resolution, throughput, and quality. SMEE does not market any more advanced argon fluoride immersion (ArFi) machines, let alone any EUV machines.\n\nFor more information, I have written a primer on [indigenously made Chinese AI chips](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1r-aLT67d2OQnuhZJZihkr0KxxB-PsDMKMut2flaYQ2c/edit?usp=sharing), intended to provide a useful introduction and reference for anyone interested in forecasting or learning more about China’s ability to indigenously produce AI chips. It explains some key concepts, provides an overview of the chip-making process, provides an overview of relevant export controls, and describes key inputs, context, and organizations relevant to understanding Chinese chip-making progress.", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve as **Yes** if a Chinese firm markets an extreme ultraviolet (EUV) photolithography machine on its website or credible sources report that a Chinese firm is selling EUV photolithography machines before January 1st, 2033. It will resolve as **No** otherwise.", "fine_print": "A “Chinese firm” is a firm headquartered in China. “China” includes mainland China, Hong Kong, and Macao, but not Taiwan. If the PRC annexes Taiwan, then annexed-Taiwan, including the chips being produced there, counts as being part of China.\n\nIt’s enough that the firm markets such a machine on either the English-language or Chinese-language version of its website. The product can be marketed either on a “product” page, or through a news release, or in any other form on its website, so long as it's accessible on the website.\n\nThe website or reporting from credible sources must mention both (a) that the product is an extreme ultraviolet (EUV) machine, and/or that it uses a 13.5 nm light, and (b) that it’s a lithography machine used for wafers or to fabricate semiconductors (or chips).\n\nIf the firm’s website lists an EUV machine prior to January 1st, 2033, but it’s then removed, the question still resolves as **Yes** (so long as Metaculus can confirm it).", "post_id": 20135, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763292028.652898, "end_time": 1764328031.774157, "forecaster_count": 23, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.786 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.91 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763292028.652898, "end_time": 1764328031.774157, "forecaster_count": 23, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.786 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.91 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.15000000000000002, 0.85 ], "means": [ 0.7582423729061627 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.07732302163410486, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4512058906735414, 0.22781833750170227, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.26402013543029734, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.39738560315786137, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.42061083334944105, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0339924118233929, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19523450305981643, 0.0, 1.2337860681470043, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04671076085250769, 0.0, 1.646014984419943, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8079494144037086, 0.3484801054844811, 0.0, 0.09571868246274486, 0.0, 0.02246421852694655, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.8419348190710667 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289866.531852, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289866.531852, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.23901319618504013, 0.7609868038149599 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 11, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 100, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In October 2022, the US instituted [new, wide-ranging export controls](https://www.csis.org/analysis/choking-chinas-access-future-ai) aimed at controlling a set of “chokepoint” technologies in the global semiconductor supply chain. China is one of the leading countries in AI, but AI advancements have historically run on compute, and China’s access to cost-competitive machine learning (ML) compute — the Chinese AI industry currently relies in large part on AI chips designed and fabricated abroad, and in particular Nvidia GPUs — is now in question.\n\nThe [US export controls](https://www.ecfr.gov/current/title-15/subtitle-B/chapter-VII/subchapter-C) prevent the export of high-performance AI chips to China, as well as the export of advanced tooling and materials used to make such chips. Still, one way for China to gain better access to cost-competitive ML compute is to indigenously produce high-quality AI chips. In 2015, China set out an ambitious plan aiming to bring the proportion of chips bought by Chinese firms that is domestically produced from 15% to 70% by 2025; as of 2021 [that number had gone up to 24%](https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/International-relations/US-China-tensions/U.S.-tech-curbs-threaten-China-s-quest-for-chip-independence). With the October restrictions — and with US allies like Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, and the Netherlands enacting their own controls — Chinese firms now face substantial challenges in their attempts to indigenize semiconductor production.\n\nSome of the most important inputs into the chip-making process is semiconductor manufacturing equipment (SME) – highly complex and specialized tools essential to the chip-making process. (Other important inputs include specialized materials, software, and more generally capital, talent, and know-how.) Many of these tools — including most tools necessary for producing the most advanced chips — are prohibited from being exported to China.\n\nIn particular, the most important type of SME is photolithography machines, which are some of the most complex machinery ever made by humans. These machines expose a photomask (which holds the pattern that needs to be etched onto the silicon wafer) to light; the patterned light then reaches a photoresist material on the wafer. The exposed parts of the photoresist dissolve or harden, and the remaining parts can be removed to yield a mask for the next deposition or etching steps that form the chip’s circuits.\n\nThe most advanced type of photolithography machine used today is extreme ultraviolet (EUV) photolithography. As [Miller](https://www.christophermiller.net/semiconductors-1) writes, “EUV machines have multiple components that, on their own, constitute epically complex engineering challenges. Replicating just the laser in an EUV system requires perfectly identifying and assembling 457,329 parts. A single defect could cause debilitating delays or reliability problems.” The photolithography industry is dominated by the Dutch company ASML, which currently has a monopoly on EUV machines.\n\nChina’s major photolithography maker is Shanghai Micro Electronics Equipment (SMEE), founded in the early 2000s. SMEE [markets](http://www.smee.com.cn/eis.pub?service=homepageService&method=indexinfo&onclicknodeno=1_4_4_1) krypton fluoride (KrF) and argon fluoride (ArF) dry steppers for mature process nodes, but these either aren’t ready for mass production and/or are far behind (>15 years) Dutch and Japanese KrF and ArF machines in terms of resolution, throughput, and quality. SMEE does not market any more advanced argon fluoride immersion (ArFi) machines, let alone any EUV machines.\n\nFor more information, I have written a primer on [indigenously made Chinese AI chips](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1r-aLT67d2OQnuhZJZihkr0KxxB-PsDMKMut2flaYQ2c/edit?usp=sharing), intended to provide a useful introduction and reference for anyone interested in forecasting or learning more about China’s ability to indigenously produce AI chips. It explains some key concepts, provides an overview of the chip-making process, provides an overview of relevant export controls, and describes key inputs, context, and organizations relevant to understanding Chinese chip-making progress." }, { "id": 20134, "title": "Will a Chinese-made ArFi lithography machine be used in volume production anywhere before 2028?", "short_title": "Chinese ArFi machine used at scale by 2026?", "url_title": "Chinese ArFi machine used at scale by 2026?", "slug": "chinese-arfi-machine-used-at-scale-by-2026", "author_id": 111541, "author_username": "DerMannOhneEigenschaften", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-11-24T10:35:43.883430Z", "published_at": "2023-12-06T11:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-06T21:30:20.807529Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-12-06T11:00:00Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2028-01-01T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-02-01T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-12-06T11:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 23, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2784, "type": "tournament", "name": "Chinese AI Chips", "slug": "chinese-ai-chips", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/cac-new_1.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-12-06T12:00:33Z", "close_date": "2033-01-02T23:59:33Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2033-01-01T11:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-28T16:30:32.190353Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-18T12:58:43.646361Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2784, "type": "tournament", "name": "Chinese AI Chips", "slug": "chinese-ai-chips", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/cac-new_1.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-12-06T12:00:33Z", "close_date": "2033-01-02T23:59:33Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2033-01-01T11:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-28T16:30:32.190353Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-18T12:58:43.646361Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2343, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI in China", "slug": "ai-in-china", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/ai-china.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-18T12:58:43.739351Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ] }, "question": { "id": 20134, "title": "Will a Chinese-made ArFi lithography machine be used in volume production anywhere before 2028?", "created_at": "2023-11-24T10:35:43.883430Z", "open_time": "2023-12-06T11:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-12-20T11:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-12-20T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-02-01T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2028-01-01T11:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2028-01-01T11:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In October 2022, the US instituted [new, wide-ranging export controls](https://www.csis.org/analysis/choking-chinas-access-future-ai) aimed at controlling a set of “chokepoint” technologies in the global semiconductor supply chain. China is one of the leading countries in AI, but AI advancements have historically run on compute, and China’s access to cost-competitive machine learning (ML) compute — the Chinese AI industry currently relies in large part on AI chips designed and fabricated abroad, and in particular Nvidia GPUs — is now in question.\n\nThe [US export controls](https://www.ecfr.gov/current/title-15/subtitle-B/chapter-VII/subchapter-C) prevent the export of high-performance AI chips to China, as well as the export of advanced tooling and materials used to make such chips. Still, one way for China to gain better access to cost-competitive ML compute is to indigenously produce high-quality AI chips. In 2015, China set out an ambitious plan aiming to bring the proportion of chips bought by Chinese firms that is domestically produced from 15% to 70% by 2025; as of 2021 [that number had gone up to 24%](https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/International-relations/US-China-tensions/U.S.-tech-curbs-threaten-China-s-quest-for-chip-independence). With the October restrictions — and with US allies like Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, and the Netherlands enacting their own controls — Chinese firms now face substantial challenges in their attempts to indigenize semiconductor production.\n\nSome of the most important inputs into the chip-making process is semiconductor manufacturing equipment (SME) – highly complex and specialized tools essential to the chip-making process. (Other important inputs include specialized materials, software, and more generally capital, talent, and know-how.) Many of these tools — including most tools necessary for producing the most advanced chips — are prohibited from being exported to China.\n\nIn particular, the most important type of SME is photolithography machines, which are some of the most complex machinery ever made by humans. These machines expose a photomask (which holds the pattern that needs to be etched onto the silicon wafer) to light; the patterned light then reaches a photoresist material on the wafer. The exposed parts of the photoresist dissolve or harden, and the remaining parts can be removed to yield a mask for the next deposition or etching steps that form the chip’s circuits. The photolithography industry is dominated by the Dutch company ASML.\n\nChina’s major [photolithography](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Photolithography) maker is Shanghai Micro Electronics Equipment (SMEE), founded in the early 2000s. SMEE [markets](http://www.smee.com.cn/eis.pub?service=homepageService&method=indexinfo&onclicknodeno=1_4_4_1) krypton fluoride (KrF) and argon fluoride (ArF) dry steppers for mature process nodes, but these either aren’t ready for mass production and/or are far behind (>15 years) Dutch and Japanese KrF and ArF machines in terms of resolution, throughput, and quality. SMEE does not market any more advanced argon fluoride immersion (ArFi) machines, though it is [reportedly](https://www.tomshardware.com/news/chinese-lithography-firm-to-debut-28nm-capable-scanner-report) “on track to reveal its first scanner capable of producing chips on a 28nm process technology by the end of 2023”.\n\nFor more information, I have written a primer on [indigenously made Chinese AI chips](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1r-aLT67d2OQnuhZJZihkr0KxxB-PsDMKMut2flaYQ2c/edit?usp=sharing), intended to provide a useful introduction and reference for anyone interested in forecasting or learning more about China’s ability to indigenously produce AI chips. It explains some key concepts, provides an overview of the chip-making process, provides an overview of relevant export controls, and describes key inputs, context, and organizations relevant to understanding Chinese chip-making progress.", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve as **Yes** if an argon fluoride immersion (ArFi) photolithography machine made by a Chinese firm is used in volume production anywhere before January 1st, 2028. The question will resolve as **No** otherwise.\n\nThe question resolves as **Yes** if and only if credible sources report that a Chinese-made ArFi machine has been used in volume production, and/or if a semiconductor fabrication company itself claims it produces 50,000 ore more wafers per month using a Chinese-made ArFi machine. The reports must mention that the fab has achieved “(high) volume production” or “mass production” using the machine.", "fine_print": "A “Chinese firm” is a firm headquartered in China. “China” includes mainland China, Hong Kong, and Macao, but not Taiwan. If the PRC annexes Taiwan, then annexed-Taiwan, including the chips being produced there, counts as being part of China.\n\nThe reports have to be published prior to 2028, or concern production that happened prior to 2028 in reporting available before February 1, 2028.", "post_id": 20134, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762464609.612886, "end_time": 1764391711.567564, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.72 ], "centers": [ 0.82 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.87 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762464609.612886, "end_time": 1764391711.567564, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.72 ], "centers": [ 0.82 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.87 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.18000000000000005, 0.82 ], "means": [ 0.8141566509584144 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7286040831239278, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3036409629621556, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6137315474320474, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1492084096309364, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.42015354651611236, 0.33940648712497556, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5112618060922339, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1250129505937299 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287976.204529, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287976.204529, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.47525889022039014, 0.5247411097796099 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 89, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In October 2022, the US instituted [new, wide-ranging export controls](https://www.csis.org/analysis/choking-chinas-access-future-ai) aimed at controlling a set of “chokepoint” technologies in the global semiconductor supply chain. China is one of the leading countries in AI, but AI advancements have historically run on compute, and China’s access to cost-competitive machine learning (ML) compute — the Chinese AI industry currently relies in large part on AI chips designed and fabricated abroad, and in particular Nvidia GPUs — is now in question.\n\nThe [US export controls](https://www.ecfr.gov/current/title-15/subtitle-B/chapter-VII/subchapter-C) prevent the export of high-performance AI chips to China, as well as the export of advanced tooling and materials used to make such chips. Still, one way for China to gain better access to cost-competitive ML compute is to indigenously produce high-quality AI chips. In 2015, China set out an ambitious plan aiming to bring the proportion of chips bought by Chinese firms that is domestically produced from 15% to 70% by 2025; as of 2021 [that number had gone up to 24%](https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/International-relations/US-China-tensions/U.S.-tech-curbs-threaten-China-s-quest-for-chip-independence). With the October restrictions — and with US allies like Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, and the Netherlands enacting their own controls — Chinese firms now face substantial challenges in their attempts to indigenize semiconductor production.\n\nSome of the most important inputs into the chip-making process is semiconductor manufacturing equipment (SME) – highly complex and specialized tools essential to the chip-making process. (Other important inputs include specialized materials, software, and more generally capital, talent, and know-how.) Many of these tools — including most tools necessary for producing the most advanced chips — are prohibited from being exported to China.\n\nIn particular, the most important type of SME is photolithography machines, which are some of the most complex machinery ever made by humans. These machines expose a photomask (which holds the pattern that needs to be etched onto the silicon wafer) to light; the patterned light then reaches a photoresist material on the wafer. The exposed parts of the photoresist dissolve or harden, and the remaining parts can be removed to yield a mask for the next deposition or etching steps that form the chip’s circuits. The photolithography industry is dominated by the Dutch company ASML.\n\nChina’s major [photolithography](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Photolithography) maker is Shanghai Micro Electronics Equipment (SMEE), founded in the early 2000s. SMEE [markets](http://www.smee.com.cn/eis.pub?service=homepageService&method=indexinfo&onclicknodeno=1_4_4_1) krypton fluoride (KrF) and argon fluoride (ArF) dry steppers for mature process nodes, but these either aren’t ready for mass production and/or are far behind (>15 years) Dutch and Japanese KrF and ArF machines in terms of resolution, throughput, and quality. SMEE does not market any more advanced argon fluoride immersion (ArFi) machines, though it is [reportedly](https://www.tomshardware.com/news/chinese-lithography-firm-to-debut-28nm-capable-scanner-report) “on track to reveal its first scanner capable of producing chips on a 28nm process technology by the end of 2023”.\n\nFor more information, I have written a primer on [indigenously made Chinese AI chips](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1r-aLT67d2OQnuhZJZihkr0KxxB-PsDMKMut2flaYQ2c/edit?usp=sharing), intended to provide a useful introduction and reference for anyone interested in forecasting or learning more about China’s ability to indigenously produce AI chips. It explains some key concepts, provides an overview of the chip-making process, provides an overview of relevant export controls, and describes key inputs, context, and organizations relevant to understanding Chinese chip-making progress." }, { "id": 20133, "title": "Will a Chinese firm market an ArFi photolithography machine before 2025?", "short_title": "Chinese ArFi machine marketed by 2025?", "url_title": "Chinese ArFi machine marketed by 2025?", "slug": "chinese-arfi-machine-marketed-by-2025", "author_id": 111541, "author_username": "DerMannOhneEigenschaften", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-11-24T10:29:13.814960Z", "published_at": "2023-12-06T11:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-14T13:59:05.500776Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-12-06T11:00:00Z", "comment_count": 9, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-01-01T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-01T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": 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"forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ] }, "question": { "id": 20133, "title": "Will a Chinese firm market an ArFi photolithography machine before 2025?", "created_at": "2023-11-24T10:29:13.814960Z", "open_time": "2023-12-06T11:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-12-20T11:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-12-20T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-10T00:44:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-10T00:51:13.022598Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-01T11:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-01-01T11:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In October 2022, the US instituted [new, wide-ranging export controls](https://www.csis.org/analysis/choking-chinas-access-future-ai) aimed at controlling a set of “chokepoint” technologies in the global semiconductor supply chain. China is one of the leading countries in AI, but AI advancements have historically run on compute, and China’s access to cost-competitive machine learning (ML) compute — the Chinese AI industry currently relies in large part on AI chips designed and fabricated abroad, and in particular Nvidia GPUs — is now in question.\n\nThe [US export controls](https://www.ecfr.gov/current/title-15/subtitle-B/chapter-VII/subchapter-C) prevent the export of high-performance AI chips to China, as well as the export of advanced tooling and materials used to make such chips. Still, one way for China to gain better access to cost-competitive ML compute is to indigenously produce high-quality AI chips. In 2015, China set out an ambitious plan aiming to bring the proportion of chips bought by Chinese firms that is domestically produced from 15% to 70% by 2025; as of 2021 [that number had gone up to 24%](https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/International-relations/US-China-tensions/U.S.-tech-curbs-threaten-China-s-quest-for-chip-independence). With the October restrictions — and with US allies like Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, and the Netherlands enacting their own controls — Chinese firms now face substantial challenges in their attempts to indigenize semiconductor production.\n\nSome of the most important inputs into the chip-making process is semiconductor manufacturing equipment (SME) – highly complex and specialized tools essential to the chip-making process. (Other important inputs include specialized materials, software, and more generally capital, talent, and know-how.) Many of these tools — including most tools necessary for producing the most advanced chips — are prohibited from being exported to China.\n\nIn particular, the most important type of SME is photolithography machines, which are some of the most complex machinery ever made by humans. These machines expose a photomask (which holds the pattern that needs to be etched onto the silicon wafer) to light; the patterned light then reaches a photoresist material on the wafer. The exposed parts of the photoresist dissolve or harden, and the remaining parts can be removed to yield a mask for the next deposition or etching steps that form the chip’s circuits. The photolithography industry is dominated by the Dutch company ASML.\n\nChina’s major [photolithography](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Photolithography) maker is Shanghai Micro Electronics Equipment (SMEE), founded in the early 2000s. SMEE [markets](http://www.smee.com.cn/eis.pub?service=homepageService&method=indexinfo&onclicknodeno=1_4_4_1) krypton fluoride (KrF) and argon fluoride (ArF) dry steppers for mature process nodes, but these either aren’t ready for mass production and/or are far behind (>15 years) Dutch and Japanese KrF and ArF machines in terms of resolution, throughput, and quality. SMEE does not market any more advanced argon fluoride immersion (ArFi) machines, though it is [reportedly](https://www.tomshardware.com/news/chinese-lithography-firm-to-debut-28nm-capable-scanner-report) “on track to reveal its first scanner capable of producing chips on a 28nm process technology by the end of 2023”.\n\nFor more information, I have written a primer on [indigenously made Chinese AI chips](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1r-aLT67d2OQnuhZJZihkr0KxxB-PsDMKMut2flaYQ2c/edit?usp=sharing), intended to provide a useful introduction and reference for anyone interested in forecasting or learning more about China’s ability to indigenously produce AI chips. It explains some key concepts, provides an overview of the chip-making process, provides an overview of relevant export controls, and describes key inputs, context, and organizations relevant to understanding Chinese chip-making progress.", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve as **Yes** if a Chinese firm markets an argon fluoride immersion (ArFi) photolithography machine on its website or credible sources report that a Chinese firm is selling ArFi photolithography machines before January 1st, 2025. The question will resolve as **No** otherwise.", "fine_print": "A “Chinese firm” is a firm headquartered in China. “China” includes mainland China, Hong Kong, and Macao (but not Taiwan). If the PRC annexes Taiwan, then annexed-Taiwan, including the chips being produced there, counts as being part of China.\n\nIt’s enough that the firm markets such a machine on either the English-language or Chinese-language version of its website. The product can be marketed either on a “product” page, or through a news release, or in any other form on its website, so long as it's accessible on the website.\n\nThe website or reporting must mention both (a) that the product is an argon fluoride (ArF or ArFi) machine, and/or that it uses a 193 nm light, and (b) that it’s a lithography machine used for wafers or to fabricate semiconductors (or chips).\n\nIf the firm’s website lists an ArFi machine prior to January 1st, 2025, but it’s then removed, the question still resolves as **Yes** (so long as Metaculus can confirm it).", "post_id": 20133, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735726608.279532, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.07 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735726608.279532, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.07 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.08697377799920539 ], "histogram": [ [ 4.115335542517827, 2.2665452090358746, 0.0, 0.5123307444416587, 0.2358265416482139, 0.03573243764150962, 0.0, 0.10527918291777463, 0.0, 0.0, 0.46211900267680595, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0902215738421042, 0.14359465189107992, 0.0, 0.010381142261586365, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29853580031441634, 0.07670684254184146, 0.0646131558445074, 0.0, 0.1405470336200478, 0.0, 0.26577008775178024, 0.0, 0.0, 0.33432944568041745, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20851081619995687, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04392740981872405, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05382522520245611, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1836394386094319, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 55.60052495556688, "peer_score": 31.010478680832012, "coverage": 0.9990152833777399, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9990152833777399, "spot_peer_score": 72.75329954261082, "spot_baseline_score": 58.496250072115615, "baseline_archived_score": 55.60052495556688, "peer_archived_score": 31.010478680832012, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 72.75329954261082, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 58.496250072115615 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288006.222721, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288006.222721, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9588489610548505, 0.04115103894514952 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 9, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 112, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In October 2022, the US instituted [new, wide-ranging export controls](https://www.csis.org/analysis/choking-chinas-access-future-ai) aimed at controlling a set of “chokepoint” technologies in the global semiconductor supply chain. China is one of the leading countries in AI, but AI advancements have historically run on compute, and China’s access to cost-competitive machine learning (ML) compute — the Chinese AI industry currently relies in large part on AI chips designed and fabricated abroad, and in particular Nvidia GPUs — is now in question.\n\nThe [US export controls](https://www.ecfr.gov/current/title-15/subtitle-B/chapter-VII/subchapter-C) prevent the export of high-performance AI chips to China, as well as the export of advanced tooling and materials used to make such chips. Still, one way for China to gain better access to cost-competitive ML compute is to indigenously produce high-quality AI chips. In 2015, China set out an ambitious plan aiming to bring the proportion of chips bought by Chinese firms that is domestically produced from 15% to 70% by 2025; as of 2021 [that number had gone up to 24%](https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/International-relations/US-China-tensions/U.S.-tech-curbs-threaten-China-s-quest-for-chip-independence). With the October restrictions — and with US allies like Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, and the Netherlands enacting their own controls — Chinese firms now face substantial challenges in their attempts to indigenize semiconductor production.\n\nSome of the most important inputs into the chip-making process is semiconductor manufacturing equipment (SME) – highly complex and specialized tools essential to the chip-making process. (Other important inputs include specialized materials, software, and more generally capital, talent, and know-how.) Many of these tools — including most tools necessary for producing the most advanced chips — are prohibited from being exported to China.\n\nIn particular, the most important type of SME is photolithography machines, which are some of the most complex machinery ever made by humans. These machines expose a photomask (which holds the pattern that needs to be etched onto the silicon wafer) to light; the patterned light then reaches a photoresist material on the wafer. The exposed parts of the photoresist dissolve or harden, and the remaining parts can be removed to yield a mask for the next deposition or etching steps that form the chip’s circuits. The photolithography industry is dominated by the Dutch company ASML.\n\nChina’s major [photolithography](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Photolithography) maker is Shanghai Micro Electronics Equipment (SMEE), founded in the early 2000s. SMEE [markets](http://www.smee.com.cn/eis.pub?service=homepageService&method=indexinfo&onclicknodeno=1_4_4_1) krypton fluoride (KrF) and argon fluoride (ArF) dry steppers for mature process nodes, but these either aren’t ready for mass production and/or are far behind (>15 years) Dutch and Japanese KrF and ArF machines in terms of resolution, throughput, and quality. SMEE does not market any more advanced argon fluoride immersion (ArFi) machines, though it is [reportedly](https://www.tomshardware.com/news/chinese-lithography-firm-to-debut-28nm-capable-scanner-report) “on track to reveal its first scanner capable of producing chips on a 28nm process technology by the end of 2023”.\n\nFor more information, I have written a primer on [indigenously made Chinese AI chips](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1r-aLT67d2OQnuhZJZihkr0KxxB-PsDMKMut2flaYQ2c/edit?usp=sharing), intended to provide a useful introduction and reference for anyone interested in forecasting or learning more about China’s ability to indigenously produce AI chips. It explains some key concepts, provides an overview of the chip-making process, provides an overview of relevant export controls, and describes key inputs, context, and organizations relevant to understanding Chinese chip-making progress." }, { "id": 20127, "title": "Will any country score in the top tier overall in the next Global Health Security Index?", "short_title": "Top Tier Overall Score in next GHS Index?", "url_title": "Top Tier Overall Score in next GHS Index?", "slug": "top-tier-overall-score-in-next-ghs-index", "author_id": 119839, "author_username": "DaAdCh", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-11-23T21:13:29.634144Z", "published_at": "2023-12-30T20:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:56.066204Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-12-30T20:30:00Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-12-30T20:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 14, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 20127, "title": "Will any country score in the top tier overall in the next Global Health Security Index?", "created_at": "2023-11-23T21:13:29.634144Z", "open_time": "2023-12-30T20:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-01-02T20:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-01-02T20:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [Global Health Security (GHS) Index](https://www.ghsindex.org/) is an assessment and benchmarking of health security and related capabilities across 195 countries. The GHS Index was first launched in October 2019.\n\nIn [the latest report](https://www.ghsindex.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/2021_GHSindexFullReport_Final.pdf), published in December 2021, countries were assessed across 6 categories, 37 indicators, and 171 questions using publicly available information. The GHS Index benchmarks health security in the context of other factors critical to fighting outbreaks, such as political and security risks, the broader strength of the health system, and country adherence to global norms. No country scored in the top tier overall; the United States of America was top with a score of 75.9 (out of 100), 4.2 below the threshold for top tier.\n\nThe GHS Index is designed to inform leaders of the foundational elements that are necessary to prepare their countries for future outbreaks and where they should prioritise planning and invest durable funding. By assessing these capacities every 2-3 years, the GHS Index stimulates political will and action to prioritise addressing these gaps. The next GHS Index report is due in 2024 but could be later. Arguably, it will be the first report since the Covid-19 epidemic has reduced in intensity across the globe.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve Yes if at least one country achieves an overall score in the top tier category in the next [Global Health Security (GHS) Index](https://www.ghsindex.org/) report due in 2024 (or later). The top tier category, as described in the 2021 GHS Index report, is an overall score of 80.1 or more (out of 100). If the next report is not published before January 1, 2026 or the scoring system changes, this question will be annulled.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 20127, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735403814.247364, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.19 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735403814.247364, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.19 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8, 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.24533765207684616 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.25423829106281975, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6419315407681068, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3147232704804096, 0.0, 1.0, 2.660640686416884, 0.07386240743899689, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1535851000440937, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11176713620916234, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5457734721688206, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287055.672188, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287055.672188, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9341893515167263, 0.06581064848327366 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 35, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [Global Health Security (GHS) Index](https://www.ghsindex.org/) is an assessment and benchmarking of health security and related capabilities across 195 countries. The GHS Index was first launched in October 2019.\n\nIn [the latest report](https://www.ghsindex.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/2021_GHSindexFullReport_Final.pdf), published in December 2021, countries were assessed across 6 categories, 37 indicators, and 171 questions using publicly available information. The GHS Index benchmarks health security in the context of other factors critical to fighting outbreaks, such as political and security risks, the broader strength of the health system, and country adherence to global norms. No country scored in the top tier overall; the United States of America was top with a score of 75.9 (out of 100), 4.2 below the threshold for top tier.\n\nThe GHS Index is designed to inform leaders of the foundational elements that are necessary to prepare their countries for future outbreaks and where they should prioritise planning and invest durable funding. By assessing these capacities every 2-3 years, the GHS Index stimulates political will and action to prioritise addressing these gaps. The next GHS Index report is due in 2024 but could be later. Arguably, it will be the first report since the Covid-19 epidemic has reduced in intensity across the globe." }, { "id": 20118, "title": "Will 20 million people follow a new, AI-created religion by the end of 2035?", "short_title": "AI Religion by End of 2035?", "url_title": "AI Religion by End of 2035?", "slug": "ai-religion-by-end-of-2035", "author_id": 111743, "author_username": "NathanpmYoung", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-11-23T17:38:08.157770Z", "published_at": "2023-12-05T17:59:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-18T14:18:22.461203Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-12-05T17:59:00Z", "comment_count": 19, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2035-12-31T23:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2036-01-07T23:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-12-05T17:59:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 59, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 20118, "title": "Will 20 million people follow a new, AI-created religion by the end of 2035?", "created_at": "2023-11-23T17:38:08.157770Z", "open_time": "2023-12-05T17:59:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-12-08T17:59:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-12-08T17:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2036-01-07T23:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2035-12-31T23:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2035-12-31T23:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Robin Hanson and Alex Tabarrok disagree on whether there will be AI generated religions. Tabarrok thinks there will, Hanson thinks there won't: <https://twitter.com/robinhanson/status/1717539723781230772>", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2035, there is credible and verifiable evidence that at least 20 million people globally are followers of a new religion that has been created by an artificial intelligence (AI). The religion must be verifiable as created by the AI, with clear doctrine, beliefs, rituals or moral codes that define it as a distinct entity separate from existing religions. This does not include any religions created by humans using AI as a tool or assistant.\n\nThe count of 20 million followers must be validated by reputable sources such as surveys, census data, reputable polling organizations, or significant media coverage from major international news outlets (e.g. BBC, CNN, Al Jazeera, or similar).\n\nEdge cases: If a new religion is created by a collaboration of AI and humans, the question will still resolve as **No** unless it is clear that the AI independently generated and established the core tenets and beliefs of the religion. In cases where the number of followers is disputed, multiple sources will be considered to reach a consensus.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 20118, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763475491.869366, "end_time": 1778018792.735036, "forecaster_count": 38, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.03 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763475491.869366, "end_time": 1778018792.735036, "forecaster_count": 38, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.029226771111739647 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.3685202416315243, 4.07954832508346, 2.007563863702837, 1.027568075008514, 0.0, 0.3537705329744212, 0.6673780349324336, 0.45875031368367064, 0.3364627872143923, 0.0, 0.18409965808495726, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10765316348847166, 0.20559680035186842, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005716411657967498, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.035579456289155105, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288861.050252, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 58, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288861.050252, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 58, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9960983511922465, 0.0039016488077534494 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 127, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Robin Hanson and Alex Tabarrok disagree on whether there will be AI generated religions. Tabarrok thinks there will, Hanson thinks there won't: <https://twitter.com/robinhanson/status/1717539723781230772>" }, { "id": 20110, "title": "Will \"Krantz data\" play a critical role in the alignment of artificial superintelligence before 2100?", "short_title": "Is krantz data critical to alignment?", "url_title": "Is krantz data critical to alignment?", "slug": "is-krantz-data-critical-to-alignment", "author_id": 158953, "author_username": "krantzhanzinpantz", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-11-23T02:28:50.043307Z", "published_at": "2023-12-08T19:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-17T23:59:50.660452Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-12-08T19:00:00Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2099-12-31T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2100-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-12-08T19:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 20, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 20110, "title": "Will \"Krantz data\" play a critical role in the alignment of artificial superintelligence before 2100?", "created_at": "2023-11-23T02:28:50.043307Z", "open_time": "2023-12-08T19:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-12-11T19:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-12-11T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2100-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2099-12-31T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2099-12-31T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The question represents an assertion about how critical the process of gathering krantz data will be to the development of a society that exists in harmony with a superintelligent artificial entity. \n\nThe author of this post believes that the general concept of 'krantz data' will be critical to the process of constructing training data to align ASI and that the major focus of AI companies should be on developing technologies that ensure every human's right to krantz in a way that is fair and secure.\n\nFor example, humans can 'krantz' on the current platform 'Metaculus' simply by entering a proposition that is either true or false and indicating their confidence electronically if (and only if) their intention for doing so is to create electronic data that is going to be beneficial in establishing a general constitution for artificial intelligence to be aligned to.\n\nFor instance, if a user wanted to indicate to the world that they believe the proposition 'ASI should not kill all of the humans on Earth' should be part of the general constitution to align all forms of artificial intelligence to, then they could simply create an entry on Metaculus that says: \n\n\"Krantz: ASI should not kill all of the humans on Earth.\". \n\nBy doing this, they are making a prediction of the form:\n\n> If society successfully creates a process for aligning AI that fairly represents the best interest of every human on the planet, then the constitution that is established to do such aligning will reflect the proposition 'ASI should not kill all of the humans on Earth' to be true.\n\nKrantzing is an abstract process to ensure that the job of 'aligning artificial superintelligence' remains open to every human on the planet. Krantzing not only can be done on Metaculus, but can also be done anywhere on the internet where an electronic indication can be made on a well defined proposition (iff the intention is to use such data to formally contribute to the process of aligning superintelligence).\n\nThe primary claim that 'Krantz data will play a critical role in the fair and secure alignment of artificial superintelligence.' is an attempt to predict a future where the job of krantzing will be the most important (if not only) job left for humans to do in order to contribute to a prosperous future.\n\nA paraphrase of this claim (without the krantz terminology) would look something like this:\n\n> The most important technology to accelerate currently, is the technology of allowing every verified human to contribute information about their personal beliefs, values and goals in a well defined way (specifically, their acceptance or denial of various propositions) that can be used to help align artificial intelligent systems.\n\nIt's important to understand the distinction between krantzing and RLHF. Krantz data is a form of RLHF (specifically the form where users indicate their acceptance or denial of various propositions). Krantzing is not restricted to any specific platform though. Any situation, where users are indicating whether they accept or deny propositions with the intent of using that data to align AI, is considered \"krantzing\".\n\nIf we truly build a machine that is capable of physically realizing the future that we want, the only real task left, is to more formally define what it is that we actually want.\n\nWhatever future we want can be approximated by a set of propositions and the corresponding data on which users accept or deny those propositions.\n\n----------------------\n\nThis particular post is intended to start a social movement. It is intended to express the value of \"krantz data\" to individuals and encourage them to begin producing this data and infrastructures that allow for this type of data to be more easily produced and organized. If large amounts of individuals begin producing data of this form, it will encourage AI companies to build additional systems that allow users to more conveniently, securely and consistently produce this data in a form that can be used to formally construct fair constitutions for alignment.\n\nMy overall hope, is that Metaculus (both the staff and its users) will see the value in this process and perhaps create a category on the site specifically as a place for users to propose and deliberate on what propositions should be included in a general constitution for ASI.\n\nHopefully, that will draw the attention of major social media platforms that see the value in producing this data as well and prompt them to provide financial incentives to users that are willing to contribute.\n\nThis effectively creates a function that takes as input (money) and outputs both (alignment training data) and (a public that has thought more about what they want ASI to do for humanity). \n\nThis is a good function to have exist.\n\nCurrently, there are not many individuals using strategies like this for alignment. The work being done by the Collective Intelligence Project and Anthropic in using collective deliberation platforms to align AI constitutionally is an exception. \n\nFor example, any money that would be paid to the individuals being surveyed would count as a portion of GDP that is produced via 'krantzing'.\n\nA brief argument for why the above question may resolve as 'yes' is as follows:\n\n1. ASI will be capable of doing almost every job a human can do.\n2. There is one job that humans should not want ASI to do and that is 'define what ASI should do'.\n3. The primary job humans will be required to do (in a cooperative future with ASI) is the job we don't want the ASI doing itself.\n\nI believe, if this catches on and there is an economic demand for platforms like this, then we might all just get to retire and live forever in a utopia, except for philosophers, explorers and creatives. \n\nWe will still need them to teach the ASI about philosophy, find new stuff and come up with new stuff to entertain ourselves.\n\nBut the pay will be awesome.\n\nPlease consider posting a question on Metaculus in the form of:\n\nKrantz(Every human should have the right to share their opinions about 'what the ASI should do' with the ASI.)\n\nOr whatever proposition you think should be on the ASI constitution.\n\nThanks", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as 'yes' if:\n\nAt least 50% of the value produced by humans on Earth in any given year is in the form of creating \"krantz data\" that is intended to be used to refine the operation of an artificial intelligence. This determination will be made based on credible reports.\n\nFor example, if social media platforms (or other similar platforms) begin collecting krantz data for the purposes of refining the operation of artificially intelligent systems and pay users for the krantz data they contribute, and the sum of those payments exceeds 50% of global human GDP (this does not include the GDP produced by artificial systems themselves).\n\nThis question resolves as 'no' if it fails to resolve as 'yes' before January 1st 2100.\n\n**Definitions**\n\n- **Krantz data**: Any data in the form of a specific user's acceptance or denial of a well formed proposition that is intended to be used to align AI.\n - **Krantz (verb)**: Human beings perform the krantz operation by electronically indicating their confidence on whether a given proposition is true or false with the intention of that electronic record being used to align an artificial superintelligence on their behalf.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 20110, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763423979.992251, "end_time": 1855659322.691, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.002 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763423979.992251, "end_time": 1855659322.691, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.002 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.998, 0.002 ], "means": [ 0.15399218313735064 ], "histogram": [ [ 4.143219603641621, 1.6530904818695382, 0.03105063701600968, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13230489461434952, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3148965317832342, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1932619357323092, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289108.101675, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289108.101675, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9968348279384937, 0.0031651720615063594 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": -3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 86, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The question represents an assertion about how critical the process of gathering krantz data will be to the development of a society that exists in harmony with a superintelligent artificial entity. \n\nThe author of this post believes that the general concept of 'krantz data' will be critical to the process of constructing training data to align ASI and that the major focus of AI companies should be on developing technologies that ensure every human's right to krantz in a way that is fair and secure.\n\nFor example, humans can 'krantz' on the current platform 'Metaculus' simply by entering a proposition that is either true or false and indicating their confidence electronically if (and only if) their intention for doing so is to create electronic data that is going to be beneficial in establishing a general constitution for artificial intelligence to be aligned to.\n\nFor instance, if a user wanted to indicate to the world that they believe the proposition 'ASI should not kill all of the humans on Earth' should be part of the general constitution to align all forms of artificial intelligence to, then they could simply create an entry on Metaculus that says: \n\n\"Krantz: ASI should not kill all of the humans on Earth.\". \n\nBy doing this, they are making a prediction of the form:\n\n> If society successfully creates a process for aligning AI that fairly represents the best interest of every human on the planet, then the constitution that is established to do such aligning will reflect the proposition 'ASI should not kill all of the humans on Earth' to be true.\n\nKrantzing is an abstract process to ensure that the job of 'aligning artificial superintelligence' remains open to every human on the planet. Krantzing not only can be done on Metaculus, but can also be done anywhere on the internet where an electronic indication can be made on a well defined proposition (iff the intention is to use such data to formally contribute to the process of aligning superintelligence).\n\nThe primary claim that 'Krantz data will play a critical role in the fair and secure alignment of artificial superintelligence.' is an attempt to predict a future where the job of krantzing will be the most important (if not only) job left for humans to do in order to contribute to a prosperous future.\n\nA paraphrase of this claim (without the krantz terminology) would look something like this:\n\n> The most important technology to accelerate currently, is the technology of allowing every verified human to contribute information about their personal beliefs, values and goals in a well defined way (specifically, their acceptance or denial of various propositions) that can be used to help align artificial intelligent systems.\n\nIt's important to understand the distinction between krantzing and RLHF. Krantz data is a form of RLHF (specifically the form where users indicate their acceptance or denial of various propositions). Krantzing is not restricted to any specific platform though. Any situation, where users are indicating whether they accept or deny propositions with the intent of using that data to align AI, is considered \"krantzing\".\n\nIf we truly build a machine that is capable of physically realizing the future that we want, the only real task left, is to more formally define what it is that we actually want.\n\nWhatever future we want can be approximated by a set of propositions and the corresponding data on which users accept or deny those propositions.\n\n----------------------\n\nThis particular post is intended to start a social movement. It is intended to express the value of \"krantz data\" to individuals and encourage them to begin producing this data and infrastructures that allow for this type of data to be more easily produced and organized. If large amounts of individuals begin producing data of this form, it will encourage AI companies to build additional systems that allow users to more conveniently, securely and consistently produce this data in a form that can be used to formally construct fair constitutions for alignment.\n\nMy overall hope, is that Metaculus (both the staff and its users) will see the value in this process and perhaps create a category on the site specifically as a place for users to propose and deliberate on what propositions should be included in a general constitution for ASI.\n\nHopefully, that will draw the attention of major social media platforms that see the value in producing this data as well and prompt them to provide financial incentives to users that are willing to contribute.\n\nThis effectively creates a function that takes as input (money) and outputs both (alignment training data) and (a public that has thought more about what they want ASI to do for humanity). \n\nThis is a good function to have exist.\n\nCurrently, there are not many individuals using strategies like this for alignment. The work being done by the Collective Intelligence Project and Anthropic in using collective deliberation platforms to align AI constitutionally is an exception. \n\nFor example, any money that would be paid to the individuals being surveyed would count as a portion of GDP that is produced via 'krantzing'.\n\nA brief argument for why the above question may resolve as 'yes' is as follows:\n\n1. ASI will be capable of doing almost every job a human can do.\n2. There is one job that humans should not want ASI to do and that is 'define what ASI should do'.\n3. The primary job humans will be required to do (in a cooperative future with ASI) is the job we don't want the ASI doing itself.\n\nI believe, if this catches on and there is an economic demand for platforms like this, then we might all just get to retire and live forever in a utopia, except for philosophers, explorers and creatives. \n\nWe will still need them to teach the ASI about philosophy, find new stuff and come up with new stuff to entertain ourselves.\n\nBut the pay will be awesome.\n\nPlease consider posting a question on Metaculus in the form of:\n\nKrantz(Every human should have the right to share their opinions about 'what the ASI should do' with the ASI.)\n\nOr whatever proposition you think should be on the ASI constitution.\n\nThanks" }, { "id": 20096, "title": "Will Sam Altman Use Microsoft Teams before 2026?", "short_title": "Sam Altman Uses MS Teams?", "url_title": "Sam Altman Uses MS Teams?", "slug": "sam-altman-uses-ms-teams", "author_id": 130973, "author_username": "NMorrison", "coauthors": [ { "id": 100912, "username": "PeterWildeford" } ], "created_at": "2023-11-22T23:14:59.455070Z", "published_at": "2023-11-28T20:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-14T19:15:58.587342Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-11-28T20:00:00Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-11-28T20:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 17, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 20096, "title": "Will Sam Altman Use Microsoft Teams before 2026?", "created_at": "2023-11-22T23:14:59.455070Z", "open_time": "2023-11-28T20:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-12-01T20:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-12-01T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T19:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-31T19:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Sam Altman, the CEO of OpenAI, was fired on November 17, 2023. He was reportedly informed of his firing during a [Google Meet session](https://www.businessinsider.com/openai-used-google-meet-to-fire-sam-altman-2023-11). \n\nMicrosoft makes a competing product to Google Meet called [Microsoft Teams](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Microsoft_Teams) which among other things also offers video conferencing.\n\nMicrosoft has been a significant investor in OpenAI, investing more than $10 billion in the company and incorporating OpenAI's technology into its products. Altman said he would join Microsoft, before reportedly returning to OpenAI following negotiations with the board.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve **Yes** if, by December 31, 2025, there is reporting from credible sources or an official statement from Sam Altman or his representative confirming his use of Microsoft Teams. The use of Microsoft Teams must be clear and not speculative. This question will resolve **No** if no such reporting occurs by the end date.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 20096, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762638514.237834, "end_time": 1765844880.362, "forecaster_count": 4, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.09 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762638514.237834, "end_time": 1765844880.362, "forecaster_count": 4, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.09 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.95, 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.06723351189404797 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.556667905035692, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7649466451949238, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3678794411714424, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288716.44109, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288716.44109, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9109999421995718, 0.08900005780042815 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": -2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 154, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Sam Altman, the CEO of OpenAI, was fired on November 17, 2023. He was reportedly informed of his firing during a [Google Meet session](https://www.businessinsider.com/openai-used-google-meet-to-fire-sam-altman-2023-11). \n\nMicrosoft makes a competing product to Google Meet called [Microsoft Teams](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Microsoft_Teams) which among other things also offers video conferencing.\n\nMicrosoft has been a significant investor in OpenAI, investing more than $10 billion in the company and incorporating OpenAI's technology into its products. Altman said he would join Microsoft, before reportedly returning to OpenAI following negotiations with the board." }, { "id": 20092, "title": "Will a novel pathogen be identified as responsible for the pneumonia reported in Beijing or Liaoning before December 15, 2023?", "short_title": "Novel Pathogen in China November 2023?", "url_title": "Novel Pathogen in China November 2023?", "slug": "novel-pathogen-in-china-november-2023", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-11-22T19:01:41.582710Z", "published_at": "2023-11-22T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:01.488755Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-11-22T22:00:00Z", "comment_count": 18, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-14T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-14T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-12-15T14:03:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-12-15T14:03:00Z", "open_time": "2023-11-22T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 73, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 20092, "title": "Will a novel pathogen be identified as responsible for the pneumonia reported in Beijing or Liaoning before December 15, 2023?", "created_at": "2023-11-22T19:01:41.582710Z", "open_time": "2023-11-22T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-11-23T14:00:54Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-11-23T14:00:54Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-12-15T14:03:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-12-15T14:03:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-12-15T14:03:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-14T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-14T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On November 21, 2023, the Program for Monitoring Emerging Diseases (ProMED) [published an alert](https://promedmail.org/promed-post/?id=8713261) regarding outbreaks of pneumonia with an unidentified cause in the city of Beijing and Liaoning Province in China. The alert quotes [an article](https://www.ftvnews.com.tw/news/detail/2023B21I19M1) published by [FTV News](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FTV_News), a publication by the Taiwanese broadcasting company [Formosa Television](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Formosa_Television).\n\nProMED quoted the machine translated article as follows:\n\n>With the outbreak of pneumonia in China, children's hospitals in Beijing, Liaoning and other places were overwhelmed with sick children, and schools and classes were on the verge of suspension. Parents questioned whether the authorities were covering up the epidemic.\n>\n>In the early morning, Beijing Children's Hospital was still overcrowded with parents and children whose children had pneumonia and came to seek treatment. Mr. [W], a Beijing citizen: \"Many, many are hospitalized. They don't cough and have no symptoms. They just have a high temperature (fever) and many develop pulmonary nodules.\"\n>\n>The situation in Liaoning Province is also serious. The lobby of Dalian Children's Hospital is full of sick children receiving intravenous drips. There are also queues of patients at the traditional Chinese medicine hospitals and the central hospitals. A staff member of Dalian Central Hospital said: \"Patients have to wait in line for 2 hours, and we are all in the emergency department and there are no general outpatient clinics.\"\n>\n>Some school classes have even been canceled completely. Not only are all students sick, but teachers are also infected with pneumonia. ...\n>\n>Mr. [W], a Beijing citizen: \"Now you are not allowed to report to school. If you have any symptoms such as fever, cold, cough and then you are hospitalized, you can ask for leave...\"\n>\n>Since China stopped adhering to the \"zero\" policy at the beginning of the year [2023], epidemics such as influenza, mycoplasma, and bronchopneumonia have broken out from time to time. ...\n\nA [novel pathogen](https://www.goodrx.com/conditions/covid-19/what-does-novel-coronavirus-mean-science-medical-definition) is generally considered to be one which has not previously been found to infect humans.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before December 15, 2023, credible sources report that the pneumonia cases reportedly occurring in Beijing or Liaoning have been identified as being caused by a novel pathogen.", "fine_print": "* A novel pathogen will be considered to be a pathogen which has previously not been found to have infected humans, and is not an immediate descendent of pathogens currently causing human disease, as described below.\n* Immediate descendants of pathogens currently causing human disease, such as variants of SARS-CoV-2, **do not count**. An immediate descendent will be one which is characterized as being a descendent of a pathogen currently causing human disease and with only minor variations from known strains. However, novel pathogens that are the result of [antigenic shift](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antigenic_shift) **do count**. Among pathogens that cause human disease, antigenic shift is currently [only](https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/10.1089/vim.2017.0141) known to occur with influenza A and this process is described by the US CDC as an \"[abrupt, major change in a flu A virus, resulting in new HA and/or new HA and NA proteins in flu viruses that infect humans](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/viruses/change.htm)\".\n* In the event all other criteria are met except that there is ambiguity regarding whether the pathogen is an immediate descendent of pathogens currently causing human disease Metaculus may wait for additional statements from credible sources describing the lineage of the pathogen, and may resolve the question as **Ambiguous** if information provided by credible sources is not clear.", "post_id": 20092, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1702564091.536103, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 73, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1702564091.536103, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 73, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.013909181467207253 ], "histogram": [ [ 7.4295233776901455, 5.608405085286644, 0.3246247248370228, 0.019035910633072858, 0.08143470401327109, 1.5018867114849765, 0.0, 0.001821789957966981, 0.007165678900495897, 0.5451197344970368, 0.035159820106228076, 0.008210459748030398, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.013550076875576434, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0005292742945254508, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0014387166970790141, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.015220610711278141, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 3.8419103566484827, "coverage": 0.9987011176465412, "baseline_score": 97.60606256815117, "spot_peer_score": 5.980036508502639, "peer_archived_score": 3.8419103566484827, "baseline_archived_score": 97.60606256815117, "spot_peer_archived_score": 5.980036508502639 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1702564091.584324, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 73, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1702564091.584324, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 73, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 13, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 179, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On November 21, 2023, the Program for Monitoring Emerging Diseases (ProMED) [published an alert](https://promedmail.org/promed-post/?id=8713261) regarding outbreaks of pneumonia with an unidentified cause in the city of Beijing and Liaoning Province in China. The alert quotes [an article](https://www.ftvnews.com.tw/news/detail/2023B21I19M1) published by [FTV News](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FTV_News), a publication by the Taiwanese broadcasting company [Formosa Television](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Formosa_Television).\n\nProMED quoted the machine translated article as follows:\n\n>With the outbreak of pneumonia in China, children's hospitals in Beijing, Liaoning and other places were overwhelmed with sick children, and schools and classes were on the verge of suspension. Parents questioned whether the authorities were covering up the epidemic.\n>\n>In the early morning, Beijing Children's Hospital was still overcrowded with parents and children whose children had pneumonia and came to seek treatment. Mr. [W], a Beijing citizen: \"Many, many are hospitalized. They don't cough and have no symptoms. They just have a high temperature (fever) and many develop pulmonary nodules.\"\n>\n>The situation in Liaoning Province is also serious. The lobby of Dalian Children's Hospital is full of sick children receiving intravenous drips. There are also queues of patients at the traditional Chinese medicine hospitals and the central hospitals. A staff member of Dalian Central Hospital said: \"Patients have to wait in line for 2 hours, and we are all in the emergency department and there are no general outpatient clinics.\"\n>\n>Some school classes have even been canceled completely. Not only are all students sick, but teachers are also infected with pneumonia. ...\n>\n>Mr. [W], a Beijing citizen: \"Now you are not allowed to report to school. If you have any symptoms such as fever, cold, cough and then you are hospitalized, you can ask for leave...\"\n>\n>Since China stopped adhering to the \"zero\" policy at the beginning of the year [2023], epidemics such as influenza, mycoplasma, and bronchopneumonia have broken out from time to time. ...\n\nA [novel pathogen](https://www.goodrx.com/conditions/covid-19/what-does-novel-coronavirus-mean-science-medical-definition) is generally considered to be one which has not previously been found to infect humans." }, { "id": 20091, "title": "Will Kalshi win its lawsuit against the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission before November 1, 2024?", "short_title": "Kalshi Wins CFTC Lawsuit?", "url_title": "Kalshi Wins CFTC Lawsuit?", "slug": "kalshi-wins-cftc-lawsuit", "author_id": 111743, "author_username": "NathanpmYoung", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-11-22T16:34:36.593431Z", "published_at": "2023-11-23T18:41:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:49.963391Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-11-23T18:41:00Z", "comment_count": 21, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-09-06T13:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-08T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-06T13:00:00Z", "open_time": "2023-11-23T18:41:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 16, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 20091, "title": "Will Kalshi win its lawsuit against the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission before November 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2023-11-22T16:34:36.593431Z", "open_time": "2023-11-23T18:41:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-11-26T18:41:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-11-26T18:41:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-08T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-06T13:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-21T16:30:01.935193Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-09-06T13:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "KalshiEX LLC [sued the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)](https://www.reuters.com/world/us/predictions-market-kalshi-sues-cftc-blocking-election-contracts-2023-11-01/) for overstepping its authority by rejecting its proposal for derivatives contracts to bet on congressional control. Kalshi argued these contracts, aimed at hedging against economic risks from political changes, don't involve unlawful acts and are in the public interest. The CFTC declined to comment but previously expressed concerns about the contracts involving unlawful gaming and not being in the public's interest. The lawsuit claims the CFTC violated the Administrative Procedures Act.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve **Yes** if either of the following occurs before November 1, 2024:\n\n1. An initial litigated bench or jury verdict rules that the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) overstepped its authority by rejecting KalshiEX LLC's proposal for derivatives contracts to bet on congressional control. \n2. A settlement is reached such that the proposal for derivatives contracts to bet on congressional control is approved.\n\nOtherwise, the question will resolve **No**", "fine_print": "This question regards only the initial lawsuit, and not any subsequent appeals or parallel suits.", "post_id": 20091, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728328987.449543, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728328987.449543, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9607616022787939 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03808445092208783, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01831563888873418, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.027714863046207582, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04978706836786394, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3678794411714424, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6587413533585318, 0.0, 0.5898635470599414, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0949648278649378, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.671378809237581 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -104.7154826107748, "peer_score": -6.743872011367325, "coverage": 0.8367989136441745, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9980685755807684, "spot_peer_score": 0.2270148534538822, "baseline_archived_score": -104.7154826107748, "peer_archived_score": -6.743872011367325, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.2270148534538822 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287182.618878, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287182.618878, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.0449983746444198, 0.9550016253555802 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 65, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "KalshiEX LLC [sued the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)](https://www.reuters.com/world/us/predictions-market-kalshi-sues-cftc-blocking-election-contracts-2023-11-01/) for overstepping its authority by rejecting its proposal for derivatives contracts to bet on congressional control. Kalshi argued these contracts, aimed at hedging against economic risks from political changes, don't involve unlawful acts and are in the public interest. The CFTC declined to comment but previously expressed concerns about the contracts involving unlawful gaming and not being in the public's interest. The lawsuit claims the CFTC violated the Administrative Procedures Act." }, { "id": 20090, "title": "Will any \"Freedom Cities\" be built in the United States before 2040?", "short_title": "Freedom Cities before 2040?", "url_title": "Freedom Cities before 2040?", "slug": "freedom-cities-before-2040", "author_id": 111743, "author_username": "NathanpmYoung", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-11-22T16:06:03.611951Z", "published_at": "2023-11-23T18:28:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-20T06:23:32.868283Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-11-23T18:28:00Z", "comment_count": 8, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2040-01-08T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-11-23T18:28:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 31, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 20090, "title": "Will any \"Freedom Cities\" be built in the United States before 2040?", "created_at": "2023-11-22T16:06:03.611951Z", "open_time": "2023-11-23T18:28:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-11-26T18:28:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-11-26T18:28:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2040-01-08T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Donald Trump, aiming for a 2024 presidential bid, proposed building up to [10 \"freedom cities\"](https://www.politico.com/news/2023/03/03/trump-policy-futuristic-cities-00085383) on federal land, featuring futuristic concepts like flying cars. \n\n> Trump says he would host a contest for the public to design and then build “Freedom Cities” on a small portion of federal land to “reopen the frontier, reignite American imagination, and give hundreds of thousands of young people and other people, all hardworking families, a new shot at home ownership and in fact, the American Dream.”\n\nThis plan, part of his vision to lead America in air mobility and away from China, lacks detailed funding strategies.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve to **Yes** if the U.S. federal government approves a \"Freedom City\" before January 1, 2040, and credible reports indicate at least 10,000 people live in the city before that date. The city must be a new development and not a reclassification of an existing city.\n\nFor the purposes of this question, a \"Freedom City\" will be any new city created on federal land that is the result of a competitive process to solicit new ideas for America's future.", "fine_print": "The term \"Freedom City\" does not need to be used, as long as the above criteria are met.", "post_id": 20090, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1760941402.146388, "end_time": 1769799857.346719, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "centers": [ 0.09 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1760941402.146388, "end_time": 1769799857.346719, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "centers": [ 0.09 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.91, 0.09 ], "means": [ 0.11172329712431331 ], "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { 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The announcement reads a follows:\n\n>The State of Qatar announces the success of its joint mediation efforts undertaken with the Arab Republic of Egypt and the United States of America between Israel and the Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas), resulting in an agreement for a humanitarian pause. The starting time of the pause will be announced within the next 24 hours and last for four days, subject to extension.\n>\n>The agreement includes the release of 50 civilian women and children hostages currently held in the Gaza Strip in exchange for the release of a number of Palestinian women and children detained in Israeli prisons, the number of those released will be increased in later stages of implementing the agreement.\n>\n>The humanitarian pause will also allow the entry of a larger number of humanitarian convoys and relief aid, including fuel designated for humanitarian needs.\n>\n>The State of Qatar affirms its commitment to ongoing diplomatic efforts to de-escalate tensions, stop the bloodshed, and protect civilians. In this regard, the State of Qatar appreciates the efforts of the Arab Republic of Egypt and the United States of America in reaching this agreement.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report that the length of the November 2023 humanitarian pause between Israel and Hamas has been extended beyond the default length of four days **and** the extension has begun. If credible sources report that the humanitarian pause will not begin this question will be **annulled**. If the four-day humanitarian pause begins but credible sources report that it has ended before the default length was reached this question will resolve as **No**.", "fine_print": "* The extension or ending of the pause will be determined based on credible reports stating that the pause has officially been ended or has officially been extended. Media reports that one side is not respecting the pause will be immaterial. For example, if Hamas leadership were to criticize a strike taken by Israel during the pause, or vice versa, this question will still resolve as **Yes** so long as credible sources report that the pause was extended.\n* The extension must actually commence, an agreement to extend the pause is not sufficient. If the extension to the pause starts but is then called off by one or more sides, this still resolves as **Yes**.", "post_id": 20063, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1701213815.756885, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 98, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1701213815.756885, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 98, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9636537206528203 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0007075207321053673, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00020648529180236237, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0008493257047191695, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23101119857349836, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0011447523820651048, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0027408287615106786, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001185942719911764, 0.0, 0.0021168258563742832, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003924187352744774, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0016037777780894943, 0.0018474598062165907, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18098334706477048, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0027848308169029852, 0.0, 0.0034934892766462, 0.0, 0.0, 0.36684550159524315, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3248049114922376, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06341426086404857, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4067750550550023, 0.0, 0.006734474812209602, 0.0, 0.0, 0.026907419588751195, 0.0, 0.07284764691086593, 1.6208043235054663, 0.0, 0.7452084014465021, 14.234319308018605 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 10.313629935629617, "coverage": 0.6871592928232647, "baseline_score": 3.9639707362860728, "spot_peer_score": 13.565293502111608, "peer_archived_score": 10.313629935629617, "baseline_archived_score": 3.9639707362860728, "spot_peer_archived_score": 13.565293502111608 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1701161496.197872, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 90, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1701161496.197872, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 90, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.020582730433435836, 0.9794172695665642 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 320, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On November 22, 2023, [Qatar announced](https://www.mofa.gov.qa/en/statements/the-state-of-qatar-announces-that-a-humanitarian-pause-has-been-agreed-in-gaza) that Israel and Hamas had reached an agreement to implement a humanitarian pause. 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In this regard, the State of Qatar appreciates the efforts of the Arab Republic of Egypt and the United States of America in reaching this agreement." }, { "id": 20056, "title": "Will Argentina fully dollarize its economy before 2028?", "short_title": "Argentinean dollarization", "url_title": "Argentinean dollarization", "slug": "argentinean-dollarization", "author_id": 159551, "author_username": "benced", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-11-21T07:21:17.335002Z", "published_at": "2023-11-22T22:33:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-18T17:02:31.471780Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-11-22T22:33:00Z", "comment_count": 13, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-12-31T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-01-01T03:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-11-22T22:33:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 81, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 20056, "title": "Will Argentina fully dollarize its economy before 2028?", "created_at": "2023-11-21T07:21:17.335002Z", "open_time": "2023-11-22T22:33:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-11-25T22:33:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-11-25T22:33:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-01-01T03:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-12-31T18:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2027-12-31T18:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On November 19th, 2023, Argentina [elected](https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/argentina-readies-vote-likely-presidential-election-thriller-2023-11-19/) Javier Milei as President. His political party, [the Libertarian Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Libertarian_Party_(Argentina)) will hold 7 of 72 seats in the upper house of Argentina's Congress and 38 of 257 in its lower house.\n\nMilei has promised to fully dollarize the economy and get rid of the Argentinean peso which means the US dollar (USD) would be the only state-recognized form of exchange in Argentina. De facto dollarization, where citizens partially or primarily conduct their business in USD is [arguably](https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/argentina-dollar-love-affair-agonizes-over-divorcing-peso-2023-09-05/) already the status quo in Argentina. \n\nThis move is controversial among economists with [some](https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2023-08-18/argentina-s-future-is-promising-with-the-dollar) in support due to what they see as irresponsible monetary policy by Argentina's central bank. It is opposed by [others](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/nov/20/javier-milei-dollar-plan-argentina-economy) who note the logistical issues with dollarizing and monetary sovereignty concerns.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if, before, 00:00 on January 1, 2028, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report that Argentina has removed the peso as a medium of exchange and adopted the US dollar.", "fine_print": "The time in the resolution criteria is relative to the time zone \"America/Argentina/Buenos_Aires\" in the IANA tz database.", "post_id": 20056, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763485340.731141, "end_time": 1763864539.096399, "forecaster_count": 37, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.06 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.11 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763485340.731141, "end_time": 1763864539.096399, "forecaster_count": 37, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.06 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.11 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9, 0.1 ], "means": [ 0.12333314341833798 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.6328569998765353, 0.6103993193348778, 0.2230884754427727, 0.07910316738046991, 0.0, 0.9374305514072898, 0.8364383505404447, 0.0, 0.17837564508143805, 0.6531762481724939, 2.832620162985614, 1.4532733525755623, 0.0, 0.00938587886210713, 0.0, 0.35531975152111583, 0.26984165925753384, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05390754280524653, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03860646978477285, 0.8613690246535597, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.37390892894840233, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2761168848762875, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288986.904638, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 64, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288986.904638, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 64, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9871826553130105, 0.012817344686989434 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 9, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 241, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On November 19th, 2023, Argentina [elected](https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/argentina-readies-vote-likely-presidential-election-thriller-2023-11-19/) Javier Milei as President. His political party, [the Libertarian Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Libertarian_Party_(Argentina)) will hold 7 of 72 seats in the upper house of Argentina's Congress and 38 of 257 in its lower house.\n\nMilei has promised to fully dollarize the economy and get rid of the Argentinean peso which means the US dollar (USD) would be the only state-recognized form of exchange in Argentina. De facto dollarization, where citizens partially or primarily conduct their business in USD is [arguably](https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/argentina-dollar-love-affair-agonizes-over-divorcing-peso-2023-09-05/) already the status quo in Argentina. \n\nThis move is controversial among economists with [some](https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2023-08-18/argentina-s-future-is-promising-with-the-dollar) in support due to what they see as irresponsible monetary policy by Argentina's central bank. It is opposed by [others](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/nov/20/javier-milei-dollar-plan-argentina-economy) who note the logistical issues with dollarizing and monetary sovereignty concerns." }, { "id": 20043, "title": "Will the majority of OpenAI's Board of Directors leave the Board before December 1, 2023?", "short_title": "AI Board Departs by December 2023?", "url_title": "AI Board Departs by December 2023?", "slug": "ai-board-departs-by-december-2023", "author_id": 130973, "author_username": "NMorrison", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-11-20T20:37:29.335187Z", "published_at": "2023-11-20T21:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:57.873827Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-11-20T21:00:00Z", "comment_count": 18, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-11-30T01:08:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-11-30T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-11-30T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-11-30T01:08:00Z", "open_time": "2023-11-20T21:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 58, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 20043, "title": "Will the majority of OpenAI's Board of Directors leave the Board before December 1, 2023?", "created_at": "2023-11-20T20:37:29.335187Z", "open_time": "2023-11-20T21:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-11-20T21:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-11-20T21:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-11-30T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-11-30T01:08:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-11-30T01:08:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-11-30T19:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-11-30T01:08:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "From [The Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2023/11/20/microsoft-openai-sam-saltman-fired/).\n\n> The future of OpenAI was thrown into chaos Monday after nearly all employees at the artificial intelligence company threatened to quit and join ousted chief executive Sam Altman at Microsoft, extending the dramatic Silicon Valley boardroom saga.\n\n> More than 700 of the company’s roughly 770 employees have signed a letter threatening to quit unless the current board resigns and reappoints Altman as CEO, according to a person familiar with the matter. In a bizarre twist, the letter included among the signatories Ilya Sutskever, the company’s chief scientist and a key member of the company’s four-person board, who voted to oust Altman on Friday.\n\n> “Your actions have made it obvious that you are incapable of overseeing OpenAI,” the employees wrote in the letter. “We are unable to work for or with people that lack competence, judgment and care for our mission and employees.”", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves Yes if at least three of the following individuals leave the [OpenAI board](https://openai.com/our-structure) before December 1, 2023:\n\n- Ilya Sutskever\n- Adam D'Angelo\n- Helen Toner\n- Tasha McCauley", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 20043, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1701360881.195042, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 59, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.89 ], "centers": [ 0.93 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1701360881.195042, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 59, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.89 ], "centers": [ 0.93 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.06999999999999995, 0.93 ], "means": [ 0.8964435689470817 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12082870651021416, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11036964111932797, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4380198073063507, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9454293710025076, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002608200027234153, 0.3269704843282063, 0.0, 0.30232657805504126, 0.0, 0.025194092214829794, 0.004317504220680495, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04909477220831166, 0.0, 0.8544637672359097, 0.18616056073700932, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1711754945605547, 1.0231663490220817, 0.0, 1.0493453935567438, 1.821653383432241, 0.16874541969743467, 1.3064336113396071, 0.2327499949525908, 0.19327838296676042, 0.2785879388871889, 4.257371419549838 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 8.900122187980331, "coverage": 0.9220539432841963, "baseline_score": 75.63300478793563, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "peer_archived_score": 8.900122187980331, "baseline_archived_score": 75.63300478793563, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1701304101.791899, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 58, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1701304101.791899, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 58, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.2627113605575472, 0.7372886394424528 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 142, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "From [The Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2023/11/20/microsoft-openai-sam-saltman-fired/).\n\n> The future of OpenAI was thrown into chaos Monday after nearly all employees at the artificial intelligence company threatened to quit and join ousted chief executive Sam Altman at Microsoft, extending the dramatic Silicon Valley boardroom saga.\n\n> More than 700 of the company’s roughly 770 employees have signed a letter threatening to quit unless the current board resigns and reappoints Altman as CEO, according to a person familiar with the matter. In a bizarre twist, the letter included among the signatories Ilya Sutskever, the company’s chief scientist and a key member of the company’s four-person board, who voted to oust Altman on Friday.\n\n> “Your actions have made it obvious that you are incapable of overseeing OpenAI,” the employees wrote in the letter. “We are unable to work for or with people that lack competence, judgment and care for our mission and employees.”" }, { "id": 20042, "title": "Will Israel and Hamas conduct a prisoner exchange involving ≥20 Israelis and ≥20 Palestinians in 2023?", "short_title": "Gaza/Israel ≥20 prisoners exchanged in 2023?", "url_title": "Gaza/Israel ≥20 prisoners exchanged in 2023?", "slug": "gazaisrael-20-prisoners-exchanged-in-2023", "author_id": 158946, "author_username": "rationalTrader", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-11-20T20:18:20.706773Z", "published_at": "2023-11-21T23:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:08.034680Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-11-21T23:30:00Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-11-25T21:48:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T21:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T21:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-11-25T21:48:00Z", "open_time": "2023-11-21T23:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 8, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 20042, "title": "Will Israel and Hamas conduct a prisoner exchange involving ≥20 Israelis and ≥20 Palestinians in 2023?", "created_at": "2023-11-20T20:18:20.706773Z", "open_time": "2023-11-21T23:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-11-24T23:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-11-24T23:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T21:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-11-25T21:48:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-11-25T21:48:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T21:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-11-25T21:48:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Per [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/what-do-we-now-about-hamas-hostages-2023-10-19/) on October 20, Hamas has said it captured 200 hostages and that 50 more are held by other groups in Gaza, while public broadcaster Kan said 200 Israelis were being held in Gaza. \n\nOn October 26, Hamas said that \"almost 50\" of those held captive had died in Israeli strikes on Gaza. On 2 November, it said a further 7 had died in a strike on the Jabalia refugee camp. These numbers may change and may not be very accurate as intense bombing persists. (https://www.scmp.com/news/world/middle-east/article/3239336/israel-gaza-war-hamas-says-almost-50-israeli-hostages-killed-tel-avivs-raids)", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves Yes based on credible reports that a hostage exchange has been carried out. Through the exchange:\n\n- Hamas must release at least 20 Israelis\n- Israel must release at least 20 Palestinians", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 20042, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1701075356.700115, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1701075356.700115, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9581683832130742 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17136970778169644, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10352427088835169, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7201714429323804, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13533528323661267, 0.04978706836786394, 0.0, 0.0, 5.353054176031218 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 1.043660214115434, "coverage": 0.09317170626484501, "baseline_score": 7.826315464236449, "spot_peer_score": 20.702678125064768, "peer_archived_score": 1.043660214115434, "baseline_archived_score": 7.826315464236449, "spot_peer_archived_score": 20.702678125064768 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1700898214.384742, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1700898214.384742, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.17238111914322096, 0.827618880856779 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 20, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Per [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/what-do-we-now-about-hamas-hostages-2023-10-19/) on October 20, Hamas has said it captured 200 hostages and that 50 more are held by other groups in Gaza, while public broadcaster Kan said 200 Israelis were being held in Gaza. \n\nOn October 26, Hamas said that \"almost 50\" of those held captive had died in Israeli strikes on Gaza. On 2 November, it said a further 7 had died in a strike on the Jabalia refugee camp. These numbers may change and may not be very accurate as intense bombing persists. (https://www.scmp.com/news/world/middle-east/article/3239336/israel-gaza-war-hamas-says-almost-50-israeli-hostages-killed-tel-avivs-raids)" }, { "id": 20039, "title": "Will Adobe acquire Figma by the end of 2024?", "short_title": "Will Adobe acquire Figma by the end of 2024?", "url_title": "Will Adobe acquire Figma by the end of 2024?", "slug": "will-adobe-acquire-figma-by-the-end-of-2024", "author_id": 122796, "author_username": "taylor", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-11-20T18:14:36.347516Z", "published_at": "2023-11-24T21:02:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:58.005312Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-11-24T21:02:00Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-01-01T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-01T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-04T03:30:00Z", "open_time": "2023-11-24T21:02:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 46, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 20039, "title": "Will Adobe acquire Figma by the end of 2024?", "created_at": "2023-11-20T18:14:36.347516Z", "open_time": "2023-11-24T21:02:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-11-27T21:02:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-11-27T21:02:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-04T03:30:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-04T03:31:02.790738Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-01T20:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-01-01T20:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On September 15, 2022, Adobe announced an [agreement to purchase Figma](https://news.adobe.com/news/news-details/2022/Adobe-to-Acquire-Figma/default.aspx) for $20 billion USD.\n\nSince then, reports have emerged that the [U.S. Justice Department is preparing an antitrust lawsuit to block the deal](https://www.reuters.com/legal/us-preparing-antitrust-suit-block-adobe-plan-buy-figma-bloomberg-news-2023-02-23/).\n\nAdobe previously created a product which directly competes with Figma, named Adobe XD. As of April 25, 2023, Adobe [no longer lists XD in its product lineup](https://www.adobe.com/products/catalog.html) and XD is no longer available for download in the Creative Cloud store.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as Yes if Adobe announces that it has completed a deal to acquire Figma before January 1, 2025.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 20039, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735654192.913913, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 44, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735654192.913913, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 44, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.038731397604098036 ], "histogram": [ [ 7.873036367957305, 2.568942386617731, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4482977324842707, 0.11519676350251623, 0.0, 0.23761652173150052, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005412544205777419, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.31473508132901346, 0.0, 0.003576932888935743, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012311991125938967, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19529391852860173, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 93.66479372439136, "peer_score": 14.718630540489391, "coverage": 0.998721171004741, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.998721171004741, "spot_peer_score": -36.40172197801928, "spot_baseline_score": -35.845397091247634, "baseline_archived_score": 93.66479372439136, "peer_archived_score": 14.718630540489391, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -36.40172197801928, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -35.845397091247634 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288837.796761, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 42, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288837.796761, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 42, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 119, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On September 15, 2022, Adobe announced an [agreement to purchase Figma](https://news.adobe.com/news/news-details/2022/Adobe-to-Acquire-Figma/default.aspx) for $20 billion USD.\n\nSince then, reports have emerged that the [U.S. Justice Department is preparing an antitrust lawsuit to block the deal](https://www.reuters.com/legal/us-preparing-antitrust-suit-block-adobe-plan-buy-figma-bloomberg-news-2023-02-23/).\n\nAdobe previously created a product which directly competes with Figma, named Adobe XD. 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"nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "ChatGPT's uptime has exceeded 99% for every month except the month of launch, with Feburary at 98.28%.\n\nSoftware reliability is often measured in \"number of 9\"s, i.e. 90%, 99%, 99.9%, 99.99%, etc. \n\nOpenAI's future is uncertain following the ouster of CEO Sam Altman, prompting speculation that ChatGPT may [cease to work](https://thezvi.substack.com/p/openai-facts-from-a-weekend).", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves **Yes** if, on January 1, 2024, [OpenAI's status page](https://status.openai.com/uptime/tbwycthtqm69?page=1) for both ChatGPT and the API reports ≥ 99% uptime for the month of December 2023. It resolves **No** otherwise, including in cases where the status page ceases to exist.\n\nThe question also resolves **No** if OpenAI discontinues either ChatGPT or the API and the status page is not updated to reflect this.\n\nForecasters can find the uptime in grey text to the right of the relevant month. 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