Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=3340
{ "count": 6366, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=3360", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=3320", "results": [ { "id": 20024, "title": "Will Sweden join NATO before 2025?", "short_title": "Sweden to join NATO before 2025?", "url_title": "Sweden to join NATO before 2025?", "slug": "sweden-to-join-nato-before-2025", "author_id": 118874, "author_username": "stanulamstan", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-11-20T02:06:47.917238Z", "published_at": "2023-12-10T17:34:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:52.711264Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-12-10T17:34:00Z", "comment_count": 30, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-03-07T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-01T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-03-07T17:00:00Z", "open_time": "2023-12-10T17:34:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 167, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 20024, "title": "Will Sweden join NATO before 2025?", "created_at": "2023-11-20T02:06:47.917238Z", "open_time": "2023-12-10T17:34:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-12-13T17:34:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-12-13T17:34:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-03-07T17:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-03-07T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-03-07T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "NATO is an is an intergovernmental military alliance established in the aftermath of World War II. During the Cold War, the main purpose of NATO was to provide collective security against the Soviet Union and its allies, the Warsaw Pact. Recently, NATO has provided a European system of security against Russia, viewed by many in Europe as a hostile threat, especially after its invasion of Ukraine.\n\nSweden was neutral throughout both World Wars. However, in the wake of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, its neighbor Finland, which also had [a longstanding policy](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-61397478) of neutrality, [joined NATO](https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_213448.htm).\n\nRecently, Sweden has applied to NATO. NATO accession requires the unanimous consent of NATO members, and Turkey has [delayed](https://www.reuters.com/world/swedens-nato-bid-delayed-turkish-parliament-2023-11-16/) its vote on Sweden has NATO. A [previous Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10084/sweden-to-join-nato-before-2024/) asked if Sweden would join NATO before 2024. Here, we ask if Sweden will join NATO before 2025.\n\nDisclaimer: I [sourced much of the description](https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20220301-ukraine-war-brings-sweden-finland-even-closer-to-nato) from here.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve Yes if an official statement by NATO or the Country of Sweden, issued before January 1, 2025, declares that Sweden has joined NATO.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 20024, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1709830304.369463, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 167, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1709830304.369463, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 167, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9847145919368961 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05940701006835118, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0003623688351123739, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.4412294050064586e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.8041281968122976e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0819334350998952, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13130865043769122, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010501389282214616, 0.17154352868427936, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001161045971767773, 0.0, 0.0, 5.76817155346047e-05, 0.09188713666050591, 0.009632751597422598, 0.0, 0.23926431870156656, 0.0, 0.0796925279804124, 0.000532630203749628, 0.06494856035059231, 0.1922876560471084, 0.2746665087913894, 1.2090814705521813, 0.2594333558431626, 21.47116872944777 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 1.0598774417074444, "coverage": 0.22686243995294778, "baseline_score": 20.630945761477154, "spot_peer_score": -4.30860501719498, "peer_archived_score": 1.0598774417074444, "baseline_archived_score": 20.630945761477154, "spot_peer_archived_score": -4.30860501719498 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1709830304.41847, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 167, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1709830304.41847, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 167, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.013551351108717968, 0.986448648891282 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 16, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 438, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "NATO is an is an intergovernmental military alliance established in the aftermath of World War II. During the Cold War, the main purpose of NATO was to provide collective security against the Soviet Union and its allies, the Warsaw Pact. Recently, NATO has provided a European system of security against Russia, viewed by many in Europe as a hostile threat, especially after its invasion of Ukraine.\n\nSweden was neutral throughout both World Wars. However, in the wake of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, its neighbor Finland, which also had [a longstanding policy](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-61397478) of neutrality, [joined NATO](https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_213448.htm).\n\nRecently, Sweden has applied to NATO. NATO accession requires the unanimous consent of NATO members, and Turkey has [delayed](https://www.reuters.com/world/swedens-nato-bid-delayed-turkish-parliament-2023-11-16/) its vote on Sweden has NATO. A [previous Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10084/sweden-to-join-nato-before-2024/) asked if Sweden would join NATO before 2024. Here, we ask if Sweden will join NATO before 2025.\n\nDisclaimer: I [sourced much of the description](https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20220301-ukraine-war-brings-sweden-finland-even-closer-to-nato) from here." }, { "id": 20005, "title": "Will Sam Altman and Greg Brockman start a new AI company, or join a competitor to OpenAI, before 2025?", "short_title": "Altman and Brockman compete w/OpenAI?", "url_title": "Altman and Brockman compete w/OpenAI?", "slug": "altman-and-brockman-compete-wopenai", "author_id": 130973, "author_username": "NMorrison", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-11-18T01:32:12.966931Z", "published_at": "2023-11-18T03:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:54.381051Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-11-18T03:30:00Z", "comment_count": 27, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-06T20:09:00Z", "open_time": "2023-11-18T03:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 133, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 20005, "title": "Will Sam Altman and Greg Brockman start a new AI company, or join a competitor to OpenAI, before 2025?", "created_at": "2023-11-18T01:32:12.966931Z", "open_time": "2023-11-18T03:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-11-18T03:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-11-18T03:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-06T20:09:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-06T20:13:16.321906Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T19:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T19:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On November 17, 2023, Sam Altman was [fired as CEO of OpenAI](https://www.wsj.com/tech/sam-altman-departs-open-ai-mira-murati-interim-ceo-41f6d51e). \n\nIn a [statement](https://openai.com/blog/openai-announces-leadership-transition), OpenAI's board said:\n\n> Mr. Altman’s departure follows a deliberative review process by the board, which concluded that he was not consistently candid in his communications with the board, hindering its ability to exercise its responsibilities. The board no longer has confidence in his ability to continue leading OpenAI.\n\nIn a [tweet](https://twitter.com/sama/status/1725631621511184771) the same day, Altman said he would have news on next steps soon.\n\nShortly thereafter, OpenAI President and Chairman of the Board Greg Brockman tweeted \"[I quit](https://twitter.com/gdb/status/1725667410387378559).\"", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves Yes if, before January 1, 2025, both Sam Altman and Greg Brockman are either:\n\n1. Cofounders of a new company that aims to train foundation models\n2. Employees of an existing company that aims to train foundation models\n\nThat company must not be OpenAI. They must both be cofounders or employees at the same company.", "fine_print": "\"Foundation models\" will be considered to be those described by the language below from the [draft EU AI Act](https://www.europarl.europa.eu/doceo/document/TA-9-2023-0236_EN.html#:~:text=group%20of%20persons%3B-,Amendment%20168,-Proposal%20for%20a). Metaculus may make a determination if there is ambiguity regarding whether a company founded by or employing both individuals aims to train foundation models.\n\n>‘foundation model’ means an AI system model that is trained on broad data at scale, is designed for generality of output, and can be adapted to a wide range of distinctive tasks.", "post_id": 20005, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735663660.871821, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 130, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.007 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735663660.871821, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 130, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.007 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.008449444925870077 ], "histogram": [ [ 16.130653934502007, 3.135207517134116, 1.1266609424021024, 0.06087143816219785, 0.005323600755571802, 0.6979841168308447, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03128863589536731, 0.0, 0.014730426446164667, 0.0, 0.003199054436297065, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00012944370157688177, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00015751294069565332, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001499273284268887, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00022447319625320487, 0.03545480462694312, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001217034044601483, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0008944419714548969, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.051487848047288017, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0007777436678298278, 0.0, 0.00018908250074967597, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.31685856162349e-05, 4.596912012091613e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 8.257907399559651e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007291736541752871, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0004112937101196632, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0379143593955233e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0006101814103512079, 0.0006901175411598853 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 96.33569413361363, "peer_score": 33.07034438714823, "coverage": 0.9999599650464766, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9999599650464766, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 96.33569413361363, "peer_archived_score": 33.07034438714823, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 0.0 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728286914.545378, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 127, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728286914.545378, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 127, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9986714551385844, 0.0013285448614156798 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 621, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On November 17, 2023, Sam Altman was [fired as CEO of OpenAI](https://www.wsj.com/tech/sam-altman-departs-open-ai-mira-murati-interim-ceo-41f6d51e). \n\nIn a [statement](https://openai.com/blog/openai-announces-leadership-transition), OpenAI's board said:\n\n> Mr. Altman’s departure follows a deliberative review process by the board, which concluded that he was not consistently candid in his communications with the board, hindering its ability to exercise its responsibilities. The board no longer has confidence in his ability to continue leading OpenAI.\n\nIn a [tweet](https://twitter.com/sama/status/1725631621511184771) the same day, Altman said he would have news on next steps soon.\n\nShortly thereafter, OpenAI President and Chairman of the Board Greg Brockman tweeted \"[I quit](https://twitter.com/gdb/status/1725667410387378559).\"" }, { "id": 19999, "title": "Will Sam Altman be indicted before 2026?", "short_title": "Sam Altman Indicted before 2026?", "url_title": "Sam Altman Indicted before 2026?", "slug": "sam-altman-indicted-before-2026", "author_id": 130973, "author_username": "NMorrison", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-11-17T23:36:44.259069Z", "published_at": "2023-11-18T01:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-14T19:16:14.549728Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-11-18T01:30:00Z", "comment_count": 10, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-11-18T01:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 62, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 19999, "title": "Will Sam Altman be indicted before 2026?", "created_at": "2023-11-17T23:36:44.259069Z", "open_time": "2023-11-18T01:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-11-18T23:45:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-11-18T23:45:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T19:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-31T19:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On November 17, 2023, Sam Altman was [fired as CEO of OpenAI](https://www.wsj.com/tech/sam-altman-departs-open-ai-mira-murati-interim-ceo-41f6d51e). \n\nIn a [statement](https://openai.com/blog/openai-announces-leadership-transition), OpenAI's board said:\n\n> Mr. Altman’s departure follows a deliberative review process by the board, which concluded that he was not consistently candid in his communications with the board, hindering its ability to exercise its responsibilities. 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The board no longer has confidence in his ability to continue leading OpenAI.\r\n\r\nIn a [tweet](https://twitter.com/sama/status/1725631621511184771) the same day, Altman said he loved his time at OpenAI.", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves Yes if Sam Altman is announced as OpenAI's CEO and returns to the position before January 1, 2026.", "fine_print": "If an announcement occurs before January 1, 2026, but Altman does not assume the role until after that date, the question resolves No.", "post_id": 19998, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1701339019.931381, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 179, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1701339019.931381, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 179, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9700824890568787 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.00107379242299376, 0.0001209432395906319, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00015125967966683887, 0.0, 0.0003889638072470363, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19705490239159953, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0012459656721735483, 0.0, 0.00027938054705782403, 0.0, 0.0011757622955760442, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00022961922596122973, 0.0, 0.0, 2.6011373092504962e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1432068101507745e-05, 0.0, 6.882702111404779e-05, 0.0, 0.482289877367239, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0018574437693811396, 3.1075582982034795e-05, 0.0022451604936222433, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0005739269829387515, 5.6938610186649746e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0014686178481337206, 0.0006386457443445881, 0.0, 0.0012672776933286929, 0.0, 0.0050672412490143075, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0008634860290756102, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03407851471559448, 0.0, 0.693245994679904, 0.0010899214648233322, 0.4636107816015632, 0.043624454872363744, 0.0, 0.5600796545972766, 1.390307018540648, 1.0486307142364018, 1.2350007821179179, 19.093438116214806 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.575727029938093, "coverage": 0.015489645047340116, "baseline_score": 0.6242962809172764, "spot_peer_score": 63.31975530410158, "peer_archived_score": 0.575727029938093, "baseline_archived_score": 0.6242962809172764, "spot_peer_archived_score": 63.31975530410158 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1701303798.500392, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 178, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1701303798.500392, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 178, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.11443741727655543, 0.8855625827234446 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 11, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 663, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On November 17, 2023, Sam Altman was [fired as CEO of OpenAI](https://www.wsj.com/tech/sam-altman-departs-open-ai-mira-murati-interim-ceo-41f6d51e). \r\n\r\nIn a [statement](https://openai.com/blog/openai-announces-leadership-transition), OpenAI's board said:\r\n\r\n> Mr. Altman’s departure follows a deliberative review process by the board, which concluded that he was not consistently candid in his communications with the board, hindering its ability to exercise its responsibilities. The board no longer has confidence in his ability to continue leading OpenAI.\r\n\r\nIn a [tweet](https://twitter.com/sama/status/1725631621511184771) the same day, Altman said he loved his time at OpenAI." }, { "id": 19997, "title": "Will the weekly rate of hospitalizations per 100,000 in the US for each of COVID, influenza, and RSV equal or exceed 3.0 in the same week in the 2023-24 season?", "short_title": "Respiratory \"Tripledemic\" (Rates) in 2023-24?", "url_title": "Respiratory \"Tripledemic\" (Rates) in 2023-24?", "slug": "respiratory-tripledemic-rates-in-2023-24", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-11-17T22:42:00.328871Z", "published_at": "2023-12-01T22:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:53.608493Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-12-01T22:30:00Z", "comment_count": 18, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-01-03T15:39:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-05-25T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-05-25T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-03T15:39:00Z", "open_time": "2023-12-01T22:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 18, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2723, "type": "tournament", "name": "Respiratory Outlook 2023/24", "slug": "respiratory-outlook-23-24", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/cdc-cover-final.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-12-01T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-07-01T20:27:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-06-30T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-10T21:27:29.753744Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-12T03:38:08.663730Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2723, "type": "tournament", "name": "Respiratory Outlook 2023/24", "slug": "respiratory-outlook-23-24", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/cdc-cover-final.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-12-01T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-07-01T20:27:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-06-30T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-10T21:27:29.753744Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-12T03:38:08.663730Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 19997, "title": "Will the weekly rate of hospitalizations per 100,000 in the US for each of COVID, influenza, and RSV equal or exceed 3.0 in the same week in the 2023-24 season?", "created_at": "2023-11-17T22:42:00.328871Z", "open_time": "2023-12-01T22:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-12-04T22:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-12-04T22:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-05-25T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-03T15:39:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-01-03T15:39:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-05-25T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-01-03T15:39:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) closely monitors respiratory illnesses, particularly when these illnesses increase in prevalence during the winter. One monitoring and data sharing tool the CDC uses is [RESP-NET](https://www.cdc.gov/surveillance/resp-net/dashboard.html), which it describes as follows:\n\n>The Respiratory Virus Hospitalization Surveillance Network (RESP-NET) comprises three networks that conduct population-based surveillance for laboratory-confirmed hospitalizations associated with COVID-19, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), and influenza among children and adults. While RESP-NET does not collect data on all hospitalizations caused by respiratory illnesses, it can describe hospitalizations caused by three viruses that account for a large proportion of these hospitalizations. Surveillance is conducted through a network of acute care hospitals in select counties or county equivalents in 12 states for RSV surveillance, 13 states for COVID-19 surveillance, and 14 states for influenza surveillance. The surveillance platforms for COVID-19, RSV, and influenza (known as [COVID-NET](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covid-net/purpose-methods.html), [RSV-NET](https://www.cdc.gov/rsv/research/rsv-net/overview-methods.html), and [FluSurv-NET](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/influenza-hospitalization-surveillance.htm), respectively) cover more than 30 million people and include an estimated 8-10% of the U.S. population.\n\nThe underlying source data for the RESP-NET dashboard can be found at [this link](https://data.cdc.gov/Public-Health-Surveillance/Rates-of-Laboratory-Confirmed-RSV-COVID-19-and-Flu/kvib-3txy).\n\nIn its [Respiratory Disease Season Outlook](https://www.cdc.gov/respiratory-viruses/whats-new/2023-2024-season-outlook.html) for 2023-24, the CDC describes the 2022-23 peak as a \"tripledemic\" due to high incidence of COVID, flu, and RSV at the same time. The [RESP-NET](https://www.cdc.gov/surveillance/resp-net/dashboard.html) figures for the 2022-23 season show a large combined peak hospitalization rate of 22.2 per 100,000 for the week ending December 3, 2022, the sum of the following rates for the three respiratory illnesses:\n\n* COVID-19: 9.3\n* Flu: 8.7\n* RSV: 4.2", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if all of COVID, influenza, and RSV show a hospitalization rate of 3.0 or higher in the same week for at least one week in the 2023-24 season, according to the CDC's [RESP-NET](https://www.cdc.gov/surveillance/resp-net/dashboard.html). The CDC uses \"epidemiological weeks\" which begin on Sunday and end on Saturday. The rate used will be that for all ages, races, and sexes. See the fine print for the correct filters. For the purposes of this question, the 2023-2024 season will be considered to begin with the week ending on October 7, 2023, and end on the week ending June 1, 2024.\n\nTo allow for data revisions and reporting delays the question will resolve according to data shown after the reporting delay period, when the relevant figures for the current season is not shown as a dashed line, typically 4 weeks after the week end date.", "fine_print": "* The following filters will be selected:\n\n * **Chart Selection:** \"Season\"\n * **View:** \"Weekly Rates\"\n * **Season:** \"2023-24\"\n * **Pathogen:** \"All\"", "post_id": 19997, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704458193.769311, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "centers": [ 0.95 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.96 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704458193.769311, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "centers": [ 0.95 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.96 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.050000000000000044, 0.95 ], "means": [ 0.8477002700970496 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05910574656195625, 0.0, 0.03906061193493671, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10617775163122897, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08122031490464846, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9509882786855701, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13444868060126633, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.24311673443421436, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.39612878863968176, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.28862105284580747, 0.0, 0.6909710575892369, 0.0, 0.459076198919707, 1.429330681666337, 0.6059345510304436, 0.0, 0.0, 1.5288293908805635 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.990004312037289, "coverage": 0.18507401066256504, "baseline_score": -14.663139519796397, "spot_peer_score": -29.836572062856465, "peer_archived_score": 0.990004312037289, "baseline_archived_score": -14.663139519796397, "spot_peer_archived_score": -29.836572062856465 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704277880.937682, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704277880.937682, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.16953185669247917, 0.8304681433075208 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 111, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) closely monitors respiratory illnesses, particularly when these illnesses increase in prevalence during the winter. One monitoring and data sharing tool the CDC uses is [RESP-NET](https://www.cdc.gov/surveillance/resp-net/dashboard.html), which it describes as follows:\n\n>The Respiratory Virus Hospitalization Surveillance Network (RESP-NET) comprises three networks that conduct population-based surveillance for laboratory-confirmed hospitalizations associated with COVID-19, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), and influenza among children and adults. While RESP-NET does not collect data on all hospitalizations caused by respiratory illnesses, it can describe hospitalizations caused by three viruses that account for a large proportion of these hospitalizations. Surveillance is conducted through a network of acute care hospitals in select counties or county equivalents in 12 states for RSV surveillance, 13 states for COVID-19 surveillance, and 14 states for influenza surveillance. The surveillance platforms for COVID-19, RSV, and influenza (known as [COVID-NET](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covid-net/purpose-methods.html), [RSV-NET](https://www.cdc.gov/rsv/research/rsv-net/overview-methods.html), and [FluSurv-NET](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/influenza-hospitalization-surveillance.htm), respectively) cover more than 30 million people and include an estimated 8-10% of the U.S. population.\n\nThe underlying source data for the RESP-NET dashboard can be found at [this link](https://data.cdc.gov/Public-Health-Surveillance/Rates-of-Laboratory-Confirmed-RSV-COVID-19-and-Flu/kvib-3txy).\n\nIn its [Respiratory Disease Season Outlook](https://www.cdc.gov/respiratory-viruses/whats-new/2023-2024-season-outlook.html) for 2023-24, the CDC describes the 2022-23 peak as a \"tripledemic\" due to high incidence of COVID, flu, and RSV at the same time. The [RESP-NET](https://www.cdc.gov/surveillance/resp-net/dashboard.html) figures for the 2022-23 season show a large combined peak hospitalization rate of 22.2 per 100,000 for the week ending December 3, 2022, the sum of the following rates for the three respiratory illnesses:\n\n* COVID-19: 9.3\n* Flu: 8.7\n* RSV: 4.2" }, { "id": 19977, "title": "Will Pete Rose be reinstated by MLB by 2045?", "short_title": "MLB reinstates Pete Rose before 2045?", "url_title": "MLB reinstates Pete Rose before 2045?", "slug": "mlb-reinstates-pete-rose-before-2045", "author_id": 153157, "author_username": "DavidHume", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-11-17T01:23:36.064387Z", "published_at": "2023-12-15T01:07:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:01.014096Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-12-15T01:07:00Z", "comment_count": 12, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-10-22T16:37:52Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2045-01-01T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2045-01-06T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-22T16:37:52Z", "open_time": "2023-12-15T01:07:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 10, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 19977, "title": "Will Pete Rose be reinstated by MLB by 2045?", "created_at": "2023-11-17T01:23:36.064387Z", "open_time": "2023-12-15T01:07:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-12-18T01:07:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-12-18T01:07:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2045-01-06T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-22T16:37:52Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-22T16:47:57.820585Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2045-01-01T20:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-10-22T16:37:52Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Pete Rose is the MLB hit champion with 4,256 career hits. He had an extended stint as a player and manager of the Cincinnati Reds. He was banned by Commissioner Bart Giamatti after an investigation revealed that he had gambled in games that he managed, although the reports produced no evidence that he ever bet against his team.\n\nOther plays banned from the game for gambling related offensives, such as \"Shoeless\" Joe Jackson, were never reinstated.\n\nHe is still recognized and commemorated by the Reds since his number 14 has been retired.", "resolution_criteria": "A positive resolution would occur if Pete Rose has been declared eligible for the Hall of Fame by Major League Baseball before January 1, 2045. \n\nAs for \"reinstatement\", a decree from Major League Baseball that explicitly declares that Pete Rose (specifically) or other banned individuals (generally but understood to be inclusive of Rose) can be admitted to the Hall of Fame without directly stating that Rose has been \"reinstated\" or declared \"eligible\" would count as a \"reinstatement\". This decree would have to come from Major League Baseball as it would not be sufficient for the National Baseball Hall of Fame and Museum to allow Pete Rose to be inducted into the Hall of Fame. Such as scenario can count as \"reinstatement\" only in the event that Pete Rose has died, since a deceased Pete Rose would not enjoy the other privileges that eligible people can enjoy, such as employment on the behalf of a professional baseball club affiliated with MLB.\n\nIf Pete Rose is reinstated or posthumously declared eligible for the Hall of Fame by Major League Baseball, but the National Baseball Hall of Fame and Museum does not admit Pete Rose to the Hall of Fame, that would be sufficient for a positive resolution.", "fine_print": "If MLB breaks up or gets absorbed into another league, then the question will resolve be annulled For example, a merger of Nippon Professional Baseball and Major League Baseball, such that MLB no longer exists, would be considered sufficient for an \"annulled\" resolution. If MLB annexes another small league or a team(s) from another league, then the question can resolve either \"yes\" or \"no\" since for the purposes of this question, the continuity of MLB has been maintained.", "post_id": 19977, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1719869202.657255, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "centers": [ 0.243 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1719869202.657255, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "centers": [ 0.243 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.757, 0.243 ], "means": [ 0.241504056692359 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.701700440519318, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8423388801235393, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3678794411714424, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2814081443602781, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.2047866778226079, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.46583116261132207, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5766554926712493, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13533528323661267, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287872.849465, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287872.849465, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8898833447007661, 0.1101166552992339 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 42, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Pete Rose is the MLB hit champion with 4,256 career hits. He had an extended stint as a player and manager of the Cincinnati Reds. He was banned by Commissioner Bart Giamatti after an investigation revealed that he had gambled in games that he managed, although the reports produced no evidence that he ever bet against his team.\n\nOther plays banned from the game for gambling related offensives, such as \"Shoeless\" Joe Jackson, were never reinstated.\n\nHe is still recognized and commemorated by the Reds since his number 14 has been retired." }, { "id": 19975, "title": "Will a new SARS-CoV-2 variant be classified as a Variant of Concern (VOC) or worse in the United States before March 1, 2024?", "short_title": "COVID VOC or Worse Before March 1, 2024?", "url_title": "COVID VOC or Worse Before March 1, 2024?", "slug": "covid-voc-or-worse-before-march-1-2024", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-11-16T22:00:24.449479Z", "published_at": "2023-12-01T22:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:21.507798Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-12-01T22:30:00Z", "comment_count": 37, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-02-29T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-02-29T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-03-01T15:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-03-01T15:01:00Z", "open_time": "2023-12-01T22:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 55, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2723, "type": "tournament", "name": "Respiratory Outlook 2023/24", "slug": "respiratory-outlook-23-24", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/cdc-cover-final.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-12-01T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-07-01T20:27:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-06-30T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-10T21:27:29.753744Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-12T03:38:08.663730Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2723, "type": "tournament", "name": "Respiratory Outlook 2023/24", "slug": "respiratory-outlook-23-24", "header_image": 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"spot_scoring_time": "2023-12-04T22:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-03-01T15:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-03-01T15:01:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-03-01T15:01:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-02-29T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-02-29T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The SARS-CoV-2 Interagency Group (SIG), established by the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, coordinates between the CDC, National Institutes of Health, Food and Drug Administration, Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority, and Department of Defense. This group is responsible for classifying and monitoring emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants.\n\nThe US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) tracks [SARS-CoV-2 variants](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/variants/variant-classifications.html) classified by the SIG. As of December 1, 2023, the CDC shows four variant classifications which describe the characteristics of certain variants for use in informing the public health response. The four classifications are described as follows:\n\n**Variants Being Monitored (VBM)**\n>. . . Variants designated as VBM include:\n>\n>* lineages with potential impact on available medical countermeasures based on analysis of genetic sequence data.\n>* lineages that previously caused more severe disease or increased transmission but that are no longer detected.\n>* lineage with an unusually large number of antigenic mutations AND presence in multiple countries with collection dates within 4 weeks.\n>*lineages previously designated as a VOI, VOC, or VOHC that are currently circulating at very low levels in the United States.\n>\n>A Variant of Interest or a Variant of Concern may be downgraded to this list after it is no longer circulating at sustained levels and no longer poses significant risk to public health in the United States. Classifications may change over time, based on the evolving situation and information available.\n\n**Variant of Interest (VOI)**\n>. . . Variants designated as VOI include variants that have:\n>\n>* reduced neutralization by antibodies generated against previous infection or vaccination.\n>* reduced efficacy of FDA approved treatments, or diagnostic tests.\n>* predicted increase in transmissibility or disease severity.\n>\n>Possible attributes of a Variant of Interest include:\n>\n>* specific genetic markers that are predicted to affect transmission, diagnostics, therapeutics, or immune escape.\n>* evidence that it is the cause of an increased proportion of cases or unique outbreak clusters.\n\n**Variant of Concern (VOC)**\n>. . . In addition to the possible attributes of a variant of interest, variants designated as VOC include:\n>\n>* increase in transmissibility.\n>* more severe disease (for example, increased hospitalizations or deaths).\n>* significant reduction in neutralization by antibodies generated during previous infection or vaccination.\n>* reduced effectiveness of treatments or vaccines, or diagnostic detection failures.\n\n**Variant of High Consequence (VOHC)**\n>A VOHC has clear evidence that prevention measures or medical countermeasures (MCMs) have significantly reduced effectiveness relative to previously circulating variants. . . In addition to the possible attributes of a variant of concern, variants designated as VOHC include impact on MCMs such as:\n>\n>* demonstrated failure of diagnostic test targets.\n>* evidence to suggest a significant reduction in vaccine effectiveness, a disproportionately high number of infections in vaccinated persons, or very low vaccine-induced protection against severe disease.\n>* significantly reduced susceptibility to multiple EUA or approved therapeutics.\n>* more severe clinical disease and increased hospitalizations.\n\nThe variant class hierarchy is described by the CDC as follows:\n\n>Each variant classification includes the possible attributes of lower classes (for example, VOC includes the possible attributes of VOI). . . U.S. classifications may differ from the WHO classifications because the impact of variants may differ by location.\n\nAs of December 1, 2023, only \"Omicron (parent lineages)\" is classified as a VOC. All other variants are classified as VBM, except for \"variants containing the F456L spike mutations\" which is classified as a VOI. Previously the only variants to have reached the level of VOC were Alpha, Beta, Gamma, Delta, Epsilon, and Omicron, though all but \"Omicron (parent lineages)\" have since been downgraded.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, after December 1, 2023 and before March 1, 2024, the SARS-CoV-2 Interagency Group announces (or the CDC [shows on its SARS-CoV-2 variant classifications page](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/variants/variant-classifications.html)) a new SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Concern (VOC) or Variant of High Consequence (VOHC) that was not previously identified as a VOC or VOHC at any point.", "fine_print": "If a new variant is classified using a new classification that is clearly described as being a level above VOC or having properties in addition to the possible attributes of a VOC or VOHC this question will also resolve as **Yes**.", "post_id": 19975, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1709152543.546421, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 55, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1709152543.546421, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 55, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.022367312491161286 ], "histogram": [ [ 9.605680493508817, 2.759318850316543, 0.08256815757193207, 0.39271883258523693, 0.016579741893434776, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02892019494468926, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06549491799116114, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0044440085329729906, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11946929754074909, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.26357008825228284, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 3.554151676139143, "coverage": 0.9985261286460055, "baseline_score": 97.39641370228262, "spot_peer_score": 4.424136251794816, "peer_archived_score": 3.554151676139143, "baseline_archived_score": 97.39641370228262, "spot_peer_archived_score": 4.424136251794816 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1709192038.930101, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 55, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1709192038.930101, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 55, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 214, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The SARS-CoV-2 Interagency Group (SIG), established by the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, coordinates between the CDC, National Institutes of Health, Food and Drug Administration, Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority, and Department of Defense. This group is responsible for classifying and monitoring emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants.\n\nThe US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) tracks [SARS-CoV-2 variants](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/variants/variant-classifications.html) classified by the SIG. As of December 1, 2023, the CDC shows four variant classifications which describe the characteristics of certain variants for use in informing the public health response. The four classifications are described as follows:\n\n**Variants Being Monitored (VBM)**\n>. . . Variants designated as VBM include:\n>\n>* lineages with potential impact on available medical countermeasures based on analysis of genetic sequence data.\n>* lineages that previously caused more severe disease or increased transmission but that are no longer detected.\n>* lineage with an unusually large number of antigenic mutations AND presence in multiple countries with collection dates within 4 weeks.\n>*lineages previously designated as a VOI, VOC, or VOHC that are currently circulating at very low levels in the United States.\n>\n>A Variant of Interest or a Variant of Concern may be downgraded to this list after it is no longer circulating at sustained levels and no longer poses significant risk to public health in the United States. Classifications may change over time, based on the evolving situation and information available.\n\n**Variant of Interest (VOI)**\n>. . . Variants designated as VOI include variants that have:\n>\n>* reduced neutralization by antibodies generated against previous infection or vaccination.\n>* reduced efficacy of FDA approved treatments, or diagnostic tests.\n>* predicted increase in transmissibility or disease severity.\n>\n>Possible attributes of a Variant of Interest include:\n>\n>* specific genetic markers that are predicted to affect transmission, diagnostics, therapeutics, or immune escape.\n>* evidence that it is the cause of an increased proportion of cases or unique outbreak clusters.\n\n**Variant of Concern (VOC)**\n>. . . In addition to the possible attributes of a variant of interest, variants designated as VOC include:\n>\n>* increase in transmissibility.\n>* more severe disease (for example, increased hospitalizations or deaths).\n>* significant reduction in neutralization by antibodies generated during previous infection or vaccination.\n>* reduced effectiveness of treatments or vaccines, or diagnostic detection failures.\n\n**Variant of High Consequence (VOHC)**\n>A VOHC has clear evidence that prevention measures or medical countermeasures (MCMs) have significantly reduced effectiveness relative to previously circulating variants. . . In addition to the possible attributes of a variant of concern, variants designated as VOHC include impact on MCMs such as:\n>\n>* demonstrated failure of diagnostic test targets.\n>* evidence to suggest a significant reduction in vaccine effectiveness, a disproportionately high number of infections in vaccinated persons, or very low vaccine-induced protection against severe disease.\n>* significantly reduced susceptibility to multiple EUA or approved therapeutics.\n>* more severe clinical disease and increased hospitalizations.\n\nThe variant class hierarchy is described by the CDC as follows:\n\n>Each variant classification includes the possible attributes of lower classes (for example, VOC includes the possible attributes of VOI). . . U.S. classifications may differ from the WHO classifications because the impact of variants may differ by location.\n\nAs of December 1, 2023, only \"Omicron (parent lineages)\" is classified as a VOC. All other variants are classified as VBM, except for \"variants containing the F456L spike mutations\" which is classified as a VOI. Previously the only variants to have reached the level of VOC were Alpha, Beta, Gamma, Delta, Epsilon, and Omicron, though all but \"Omicron (parent lineages)\" have since been downgraded." }, { "id": 19969, "title": "Will the US Congress approve additional aid for Ukraine before 2024?", "short_title": "More foreign aid for Ukraine?", "url_title": "More foreign aid for Ukraine?", "slug": "more-foreign-aid-for-ukraine", "author_id": 113860, "author_username": "RuslanBes", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-11-16T19:31:05.566141Z", "published_at": "2023-11-28T19:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:23.133885Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-11-28T19:00:00Z", "comment_count": 29, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-14T15:45:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-12-14T15:45:00Z", "open_time": "2023-11-28T19:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 45, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 19969, "title": "Will the US Congress approve additional aid for Ukraine before 2024?", "created_at": "2023-11-16T19:31:05.566141Z", "open_time": "2023-11-28T19:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-12-01T19:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-12-01T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-12-14T15:45:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-12-14T15:45:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-14T15:45:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "**See also**: [How much additional aid for Ukraine will the US Congress approve before October 1, 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/18694/amount-of-new-ukraine-aid-package/)\n\nBetween January 2022 and July 2023, the US has provided Ukraine with $46.6 billion in military aid, $3.9 billion in humanitarian aid and $26.4 billion in financial aid, totaling roughly $77 billion, according to a recent analysis from the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)\n\nDespite previous bipartisan support on September 30, 2023 the US Congress passed a bill that [didn't include](https://www.foxnews.com/politics/democrat-senator-temporarily-held-up-senate-vote-hours-before-shutdown-over-ukraine-funding) new foreign aid for Ukraine.", "resolution_criteria": "This questions resolves as _Yes_ if at any point in time between November 16, 2023 and January 1, 2024 credible sources report that the US Congress has approved an additional package of foreign aid for Ukraine. 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according to a recent analysis from the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)\n\nDespite previous bipartisan support on September 30, 2023 the US Congress passed a bill that [didn't include](https://www.foxnews.com/politics/democrat-senator-temporarily-held-up-senate-vote-hours-before-shutdown-over-ukraine-funding) new foreign aid for Ukraine." }, { "id": 19966, "title": "Will the International Criminal Court bring charges against a member of the Israeli Government or Israeli Defense Force before 2027?", "short_title": "Israeli officials charged by ICC?", "url_title": "Israeli officials charged by ICC?", "slug": "israeli-officials-charged-by-icc", "author_id": 114017, "author_username": "Kaleem", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-11-16T17:53:10.300922Z", "published_at": "2023-11-25T20:59:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:53.240869Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-11-25T20:59:00Z", "comment_count": 15, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, 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Subsequently, Israel executed air strikes and military ground operations in Gaza.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve Yes if any member of the Israeli Government or Israeli Defense Force is charged by the International Criminal Court before January 1, 2027 for any crime in relation to Isreal's military actions in Gaza following Hamas' attack on Israel on October 7th 2023.\n\nPer the [Rome Statute](https://www.icc-cpi.int/sites/default/files/RS-Eng.pdf)—the founding statute of the ICC—the court may bring charges within the following [categories](https://www.icc-cpi.int/about/how-the-court-works):\n\n- Genocide\n- Crimes against humanity\n- War crimes\n- Crimes of aggression\n- Offences against the administration of justice\n\nThe ICC announcing either an indictment, summons, or an arrest warrant is sufficient for a Yes resolution.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 19966, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1732211714.652716, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 65, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.86 ], "centers": [ 0.93 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1732211714.652716, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 65, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.86 ], "centers": [ 0.93 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.06999999999999995, 0.93 ], "means": [ 0.8985412874480896 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0067717765537705695, 0.0012965554486791008, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0008568413763270113, 0.002949293081317581, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007114722222280082, 0.0, 0.12716653551049145, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010070387089084703, 0.013291901200468375, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04705968077438683, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4105956687466944, 0.011600507024289436, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.017210119101531127, 0.007446731347793363, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13813894976991253, 0.0, 0.6831013776873005, 0.0, 0.02464062427608051, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07358758626297761, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.37113480134217347, 0.2618424251183547, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.39818867837781474, 1.1231492334904558, 0.70497885357677, 0.457422476445143, 1.362834444077666, 0.4723907103600613, 0.3456744826662608, 0.14989147521115825, 0.6800889222764867, 0.22205743285900253, 0.1672631187330676, 0.1923238700640858, 0.0, 1.282757144176969, 4.855178907247419 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 4.129601527011089, "peer_score": 19.359196610522037, "coverage": 0.47123188357378404, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9993999346018353, "spot_peer_score": -50.15997780829407, "baseline_archived_score": 4.129601527011089, "peer_archived_score": 19.359196610522037, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -50.15997780829407 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289260.381894, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 63, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289260.381894, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 63, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.12531826332944185, 0.8746817366705582 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 326, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Hamas](https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/what-hamas) launched a deadly attack on Israel on the 7th of October 2023. Subsequently, Israel executed air strikes and military ground operations in Gaza." }, { "id": 19960, "title": "Will Representative George Santos be expelled from the US. House of Representatives before January 1, 2024?", "short_title": "Will Santos be expelled form the house?", "url_title": "Will Santos be expelled form the house?", "slug": "will-santos-be-expelled-form-the-house", "author_id": 114017, "author_username": "Kaleem", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-11-16T17:10:20.384432Z", "published_at": "2023-11-16T20:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:06.206172Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-11-16T20:00:00Z", "comment_count": 24, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-01T16:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-12-01T16:30:00Z", "open_time": "2023-11-16T20:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 39, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 19960, "title": "Will Representative George Santos be expelled from the US. House of Representatives before January 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2023-11-16T17:10:20.384432Z", "open_time": "2023-11-16T20:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-11-17T15:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-11-17T15:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-12-01T16:30:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-12-01T16:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-01T16:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "George Santos, a U.S. Representative, faces scrutiny over fabrications in his background and potential legal issues. On the 16th of November, [the House Ethics committee released a report into various aspects of Santos' conduct](https://ethics.house.gov/press-releases/statement-chairman-and-ranking-member-committee-ethics-regarding-representative-76). Santos has not resigned, but has announced he will not seek reelection at the end of his term, at the end of the current session. Expulsion from the House requires a two-thirds majority vote, a high threshold historically rarely met. Only [five members](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_representatives_expelled,_censured,_or_reprimanded) have been expelled in the House's history, typically for severe misconduct like treason or bribery.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the House of Representatives expels Representative George Santos from the House of Representatives before January 1, 2024.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 19960, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1701452629.294153, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 40, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "centers": [ 0.87 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1701452629.294153, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 40, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "centers": [ 0.87 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.13, 0.87 ], "means": [ 0.862162360219116 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.010127462225706159, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004870516352324537, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0978269360296038, 0.06308219652282594, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3235495858073233, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007369969155267514, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01323943609573642, 0.0, 0.2168121871892493, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05275309199865699, 0.08615804177817497, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16003643602089318, 0.0, 0.42855776383303873, 0.0, 0.0, 0.030314528419522604, 0.2610605836134001, 0.0, 0.15685721197324565, 0.0, 1.5830563415644021, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3188535044522034, 0.0, 1.029072067536883, 0.7228487183092426, 0.14006392172911664, 0.0, 0.0, 0.630982437986904, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.39086599043581904, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.429572421466178 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 20.16118650988642, "coverage": 0.32902280026213804, "baseline_score": 7.597584050072047, "spot_peer_score": 96.13896635215512, "peer_archived_score": 20.16118650988642, "baseline_archived_score": 7.597584050072047, "spot_peer_archived_score": 96.13896635215512 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1701446148.499136, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 39, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1701446148.499136, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 39, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.1268253910959054, 0.8731746089040946 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 124, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "George Santos, a U.S. Representative, faces scrutiny over fabrications in his background and potential legal issues. On the 16th of November, [the House Ethics committee released a report into various aspects of Santos' conduct](https://ethics.house.gov/press-releases/statement-chairman-and-ranking-member-committee-ethics-regarding-representative-76). Santos has not resigned, but has announced he will not seek reelection at the end of his term, at the end of the current session. Expulsion from the House requires a two-thirds majority vote, a high threshold historically rarely met. Only [five members](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_representatives_expelled,_censured,_or_reprimanded) have been expelled in the House's history, typically for severe misconduct like treason or bribery." }, { "id": 19959, "title": "Will a third-party or independent candidate win at least 15% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election?", "short_title": "2024 US popular vote: 3rd party ≥ 15%?", "url_title": "2024 US popular vote: 3rd party ≥ 15%?", "slug": "2024-us-popular-vote-3rd-party-15", "author_id": 130973, "author_username": "NMorrison", "coauthors": [ { "id": 115666, "username": "Cato" }, { "id": 111743, "username": "NathanpmYoung" } ], "created_at": "2023-11-16T16:24:30.524441Z", "published_at": "2023-11-17T18:54:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:19.449031Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-11-17T18:54:00Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-04T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-04T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-20T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-21T16:09:00Z", "open_time": "2023-11-17T18:54:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 49, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 19959, "title": "Will a third-party or independent candidate win at least 15% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election?", "created_at": "2023-11-16T16:24:30.524441Z", "open_time": "2023-11-17T18:54:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-11-20T18:54:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-11-20T18:54:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-20T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-21T16:09:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-21T16:10:45.617477Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-04T19:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-04T19:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Although [large numbers of Americans consistently say they want a third party](https://news.gallup.com/poll/244094/majority-say-third-party-needed.aspx), electoral performance of parties other than the Democratic and Republican parties has historically been poor. For example, no non-Democrat non-Republican has won a presidential election since [1848](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1848_United_States_presidential_election).\n\nThe most recent time a non-Democrat non-Republican received over 10% of the national popular vote was 1992, with Perot-Stockdale winning 19%. (Perot-Choate came close in 1996, with 8%.)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves **Yes** if any single candidate not running for the Democratic or Republican party receives 15% or more of the national popular vote, and **No** if one does not", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 19959, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1730744824.888688, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 48, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.001 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1730744824.888688, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 48, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.009872213823078315 ], "histogram": [ [ 9.73665239726177, 1.6996993076830509, 0.18672356173200788, 0.0, 0.4900981023547899, 0.11751598837018307, 0.009167091186681414, 0.005537830714382473, 0.013808762573796008, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03625538578438271, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06818282742296448, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 96.98020178879122, "peer_score": 5.3424447349641175, "coverage": 0.9998641159325258, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9998641159325258, "spot_peer_score": 5.663221306159479, "spot_baseline_score": 79.90873060740036, "baseline_archived_score": 96.98020178879122, "peer_archived_score": 5.3424447349641175, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 5.663221306159479, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 79.90873060740036 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289656.014046, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 47, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289656.014046, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 47, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 128, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Although [large numbers of Americans consistently say they want a third party](https://news.gallup.com/poll/244094/majority-say-third-party-needed.aspx), electoral performance of parties other than the Democratic and Republican parties has historically been poor. For example, no non-Democrat non-Republican has won a presidential election since [1848](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1848_United_States_presidential_election).\n\nThe most recent time a non-Democrat non-Republican received over 10% of the national popular vote was 1992, with Perot-Stockdale winning 19%. (Perot-Choate came close in 1996, with 8%.)" }, { "id": 19949, "title": "Will at least 500,000 Palestinians be displaced from Gaza before December 31st, 2025?", "short_title": ">500,000 Palestinians displaced?", "url_title": ">500,000 Palestinians displaced?", "slug": "500000-palestinians-displaced", "author_id": 159175, "author_username": "JimKat", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-11-16T01:04:25.924687Z", "published_at": "2023-11-24T21:15:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-18T14:09:52.798506Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-11-24T21:15:00Z", "comment_count": 11, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T18:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-11-24T21:15:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 80, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 19949, "title": "Will at least 500,000 Palestinians be displaced from Gaza before December 31st, 2025?", "created_at": "2023-11-16T01:04:25.924687Z", "open_time": "2023-11-24T21:15:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-11-27T21:15:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-11-27T21:15:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T18:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-31T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Israel has pushed [1.7 million people](https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2023-11-20/ty-article/1-7-million-palestinians-displaced-from-their-homes-in-gaza-un-says/0000018b-ee55-d6a0-a7ff-ee779f3f0000), much of the Gazan population, into the southern half of the strip and [intends to expand its war](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israeli-offensive-crowded-south-gaza-will-put-civilians-crosshairs-2023-11-18/) to the strip's southern border with Egypt.\n\nThe New York Times [reports](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/05/world/middleeast/israel-egypt-gaza.html) that Israel has petitioned Egypt to accept mass numbers of refugees. At least [one Israeli government document](https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2023-10-30/ty-article/.premium/israeli-govt-document-suggests-possible-relocation-of-gazans-to-northern-sinai/0000018b-7ff6-d1da-a1bb-7ffe83ed0000) explored the possibility of resettling Gazans in Sinai and concluded that it is the best of the available options.", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve **Yes** based on credible reports that 500,000 or more Palestinians have left Gaza before December 31st 2025.\n\nReports of displacement within Gaza - for instance, from the north to the south - are not sufficient to resolve this question.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 19949, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763474981.593685, "end_time": 1763679737.999, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.005 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763474981.593685, "end_time": 1763679737.999, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.005 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.04878574399377803 ], "histogram": [ [ 3.718425884757086, 3.199827676205273, 0.4000843884103185, 0.36164207566756346, 0.0, 0.3392517471838118, 0.0, 0.7058761934376654, 0.2635521314790337, 0.0, 0.3020322061850994, 0.23599519647101777, 0.0, 0.11367379311272378, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12845960291028385, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007327801183143461, 0.09920880509067492, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16646434153021028, 0.0, 0.01523699425510631, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2107293143308072, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011088284031717698, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06368526110961975, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287865.692276, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 59, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287865.692276, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 59, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9481593055621488, 0.05184069443785122 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 379, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Israel has pushed [1.7 million people](https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2023-11-20/ty-article/1-7-million-palestinians-displaced-from-their-homes-in-gaza-un-says/0000018b-ee55-d6a0-a7ff-ee779f3f0000), much of the Gazan population, into the southern half of the strip and [intends to expand its war](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israeli-offensive-crowded-south-gaza-will-put-civilians-crosshairs-2023-11-18/) to the strip's southern border with Egypt.\n\nThe New York Times [reports](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/05/world/middleeast/israel-egypt-gaza.html) that Israel has petitioned Egypt to accept mass numbers of refugees. At least [one Israeli government document](https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2023-10-30/ty-article/.premium/israeli-govt-document-suggests-possible-relocation-of-gazans-to-northern-sinai/0000018b-7ff6-d1da-a1bb-7ffe83ed0000) explored the possibility of resettling Gazans in Sinai and concluded that it is the best of the available options." }, { "id": 19948, "title": "Will No Labels officially announce a presidential candidate before 2024?", "short_title": "No Labels Candidate Before 2024?", "url_title": "No Labels Candidate Before 2024?", "slug": "no-labels-candidate-before-2024", "author_id": 133407, "author_username": "jleibowich", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-11-15T21:50:01.192660Z", "published_at": "2023-11-20T21:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:55.490189Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-11-20T21:00:00Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-11-21T15:20:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-11-21T15:20:00Z", "open_time": "2023-11-20T21:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 22, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2654, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q4 2023 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2023q4", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/quarterlycup.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-10-03T15:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-01-04T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-01-05T15:54:55.645171Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2654, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q4 2023 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2023q4", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/quarterlycup.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-10-03T15:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-01-04T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-01-05T15:54:55.645171Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 19948, "title": "Will No Labels officially announce a presidential candidate before 2024?", "created_at": "2023-11-15T21:50:01.192660Z", "open_time": "2023-11-20T21:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-11-23T21:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-11-23T21:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-11-21T15:20:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-11-21T15:20:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T20:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-11-21T15:20:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "As per Wikipedia: \"No Labels is an American political organization whose stated mission is to support centrism and bipartisanship through what it calls the 'commonsense majority'... In 2021, its strategy shifted toward running a third-party 2024 'unity' presidential ticket.\"\n\nWith Joe Manchin deciding not to seek reelection in the Senate and his recent [response](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/sen-joe-manchin-says-absolutely-consider-presidential-run-rcna125368) that he \"absolutely\" would consider a presidential run, [some pundits](https://thedispatch.com/article/manchins-moment-for-a-no-labels-relabel/) wonder whether Manchin will decide to run for president as a No Labels party candidate.\n\nThis question asks if [No Labels](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/No_Labels) will announce a candidate (whether it be Manchin or someone else) before January 1st, 2024.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if No Labels announces via its [website](https://www.nolabels.org/) before January 1st, 2024 an individual who will run for the 2024 presidential election as the official No Labels candidate. This question will also resolve as **Yes** if credible news sources report that No Labels has announced a candidate (even if this is not on the No Labels website).", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 19948, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1700577260.611894, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.08 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1700577260.611894, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.08 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.92, 0.08 ], "means": [ 0.16982930026608972 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.441563953841307, 1.2357187500743676, 0.0, 0.6390484072978414, 0.0, 1.4032615931380064, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.5263291990775116, 0.06785272307040267, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3872215097627376, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05190371288004473, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10635996762051808, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0972723887118385, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5670486739636473, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03777143320256801, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3398061860613764, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1700577260.637375, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1700577260.637375, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9697284215755015, 0.030271578424498406 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 27, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "As per Wikipedia: \"No Labels is an American political organization whose stated mission is to support centrism and bipartisanship through what it calls the 'commonsense majority'... In 2021, its strategy shifted toward running a third-party 2024 'unity' presidential ticket.\"\n\nWith Joe Manchin deciding not to seek reelection in the Senate and his recent [response](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/sen-joe-manchin-says-absolutely-consider-presidential-run-rcna125368) that he \"absolutely\" would consider a presidential run, [some pundits](https://thedispatch.com/article/manchins-moment-for-a-no-labels-relabel/) wonder whether Manchin will decide to run for president as a No Labels party candidate.\n\nThis question asks if [No Labels](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/No_Labels) will announce a candidate (whether it be Manchin or someone else) before January 1st, 2024." }, { "id": 19942, "title": "Will TikTok US be sold to a US entity before 2025?", "short_title": "TikTok US sold by 2025", "url_title": "TikTok US sold by 2025", "slug": "tiktok-us-sold-by-2025", "author_id": 110500, "author_username": "MaxR", "coauthors": [ { "id": 112062, "username": "dschwarz" }, { "id": 135221, "username": "TheGrassGuy" } ], "created_at": "2023-11-15T10:00:10.337908Z", "published_at": "2023-12-12T21:19:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:59.613755Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-12-12T21:19:00Z", "comment_count": 34, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-30T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-30T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-14T07:49:00Z", "open_time": "2023-12-12T21:19:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 101, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 19942, "title": "Will TikTok US be sold to a US entity before 2025?", "created_at": "2023-11-15T10:00:10.337908Z", "open_time": "2023-12-12T21:19:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-12-15T21:19:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-12-15T21:19:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-14T07:49:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-14T07:51:09.333939Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-30T11:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-30T11:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In December 2022, the US Senate introduced a bill that would [impose a ban on \"all transactions from any social media company in, or under the influence of, China, Russia, and several other foreign countries of concern,\"](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/13/lawmakers-unveil-bipartisan-bill-that-aims-to-ban-tiktok-in-the-us.html) over privacy concerns involving the government of China. This would amount to [banning TikTok in the US](https://www.economist.com/united-states/2023/03/23/america-may-be-a-step-closer-to-banning-tiktok). A second possibility is what the Trump Administration attempted in 2020 and 2021, to [force a sale of TikTok US operations to a US company, e.g. Oracle, which did not go through.](https://techcrunch.com/2021/02/10/tiktoks-forced-sale-to-oracle-is-put-on-hold/) As of March 2023, TikTok US remains accessible in the US and remains under the control of ByteDance.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if, before January 1, 2025, credible sources report that TikTok US will be (or has been) sold to a US company, foundation, or entity. The transaction need not be complete in 2024 but must at least be announced in 2024. For a transaction to count, more than 50% of TikTok US has to be sold.\n\nIf TikTok is not sold before 2025, or is banned within the US and remains banned for the entirety of 2024, this question will resolve as No.\n\nIf TikTok successfully conducts an initial public offering by end of 2024, this question resolves ambiguously.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 19942, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1732624358.586493, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 100, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1732624358.586493, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 100, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.0326378572057769 ], "histogram": [ [ 7.952603165662476, 6.380268930801157, 0.7855111546561333, 0.367904587341662, 0.4108338431275717, 0.7482316700392164, 0.257453296035477, 0.0847300296267497, 0.2814019280043881, 0.0, 0.28084474819789934, 0.03771470031802149, 0.15131279483273397, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08747067761163696, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00025661101180229933, 0.0, 0.24190266188881915, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.031468313045325595, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07548649499961496, 0.0, 0.01484779729136592, 0.0014504254020369168, 0.009018318531417267, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012995582973728041, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.016841314468324528, 0.0, 0.01085885475966403, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0031594436946416338, 0.015466976053567325, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005493616612509603, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.043095124901722154, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19560005920498844 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 76.09976514797972, "peer_score": 16.156563997008558, "coverage": 0.9998044922184656, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9998044922184656, "spot_peer_score": -8.17827933959849, "spot_baseline_score": 58.496250072115615, "baseline_archived_score": 76.09976514797972, "peer_archived_score": 16.156563997008558, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -8.17827933959849, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 58.496250072115615 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288421.042174, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 96, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288421.042174, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 96, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.995708398188116, 0.004291601811884089 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 18, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 423, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In December 2022, the US Senate introduced a bill that would [impose a ban on \"all transactions from any social media company in, or under the influence of, China, Russia, and several other foreign countries of concern,\"](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/13/lawmakers-unveil-bipartisan-bill-that-aims-to-ban-tiktok-in-the-us.html) over privacy concerns involving the government of China. This would amount to [banning TikTok in the US](https://www.economist.com/united-states/2023/03/23/america-may-be-a-step-closer-to-banning-tiktok). A second possibility is what the Trump Administration attempted in 2020 and 2021, to [force a sale of TikTok US operations to a US company, e.g. Oracle, which did not go through.](https://techcrunch.com/2021/02/10/tiktoks-forced-sale-to-oracle-is-put-on-hold/) As of March 2023, TikTok US remains accessible in the US and remains under the control of ByteDance." }, { "id": 19919, "title": "Will Delhi perform cloud seeding before December 1, 2023?", "short_title": "Delhi Cloud Seeding Before December 1?", "url_title": "Delhi Cloud Seeding Before December 1?", "slug": "delhi-cloud-seeding-before-december-1", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-11-14T16:25:06.287976Z", "published_at": "2023-11-15T20:10:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:24.947985Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-11-15T20:10:00Z", "comment_count": 14, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-11-30T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-11-30T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-12-01T16:10:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-12-01T16:10:00Z", "open_time": "2023-11-15T20:10:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 83, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15867, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "climate", "emoji": "🌎", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3697, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "environment-climate", "emoji": "🌱", "description": "Environment & Climate", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2654, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q4 2023 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2023q4", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/quarterlycup.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-10-03T15:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-01-04T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-01-05T15:54:55.645171Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2654, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q4 2023 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2023q4", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/quarterlycup.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-10-03T15:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-01-04T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-01-05T15:54:55.645171Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 19919, "title": "Will Delhi perform cloud seeding before December 1, 2023?", "created_at": "2023-11-14T16:25:06.287976Z", "open_time": "2023-11-15T20:10:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-11-17T08:27:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-11-17T08:27:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-12-01T16:10:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-12-01T16:10:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-12-01T16:10:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-11-30T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-11-30T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[New Delhi](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Delhi), the capital of India, has [been experiencing](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/19590/new-delhi-air-quality-end-of-october-2023/) very poor air quality. According to data from [AirNow](https://www.airnow.gov/international/us-embassies-and-consulates/#India$New_Delhi), the majority of the month of November has been at an [air quality index](https://www.airnow.gov/aqi/aqi-basics/) (AQI) level of \"Very Unhealthy\" or worse, and nearly half of the month has been at levels of \"Hazardous\".\n\n[According to a November 10th Nature article](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-023-03517-1):\n\n>As the Hindu festival of Diwali kicks off on 10 November, the Indian capital of Delhi, already blanketed in choking smog, is bracing for pollution to worsen. Over the past week, children struggling to breath the acrid air have flooded hospital emergency departments, and schools have been forced to close. . .\n>\n>“Every year it is a similar story,” says Vinayak Sinha, an atmospheric chemist at the Indian Institute of Science Education and Research Mohali.\n>\n>But although Delhi’s air is attracting attention now, scientists say that the spike is actually typical for this time of year. The post-monsoon season, which lasts from October to December, delivers an annual pollution bomb to Delhi, a megacity of more than 30 million people. Other cities in India are also plagued by poor air quality at this time of year.\n>\n>Sinha says that atmospheric conditions after the monsoon exacerbate pollution. Rainfall that washes pollutants out of the air during the monsoon ceases. As temperatures fall, the upper boundary of the troposphere — the lowest layer of atmosphere — drops in altitude and the troposphere shrinks. That causes the soup of pollutants in the troposphere to become more concentrated, says Sinha. “You have a smaller container now into which your air emissions are being stored,” he says.\n>\n>Even so, current conditions came as something of a surprise, says Karthik Ganesan, a policy researcher at the Council on Energy Environment and Water in New Delhi. That’s because the amount of crop waste burnt in the neighbouring Punjab region was lower than usual this year, causing some people to expect a milder increase in pollution.\n>\n>But as it turned out, air quality was as poor as ever because of changing meteorological conditions, including drops in wind speed on certain days. When wind speed falls, the air stagnates, trapping local emissions and leading to a pollution spike, says Ganesan.\n\nNew Delhi is reportedly considering new approaches to improve the air quality, such as cloud seeding. [According to Wired](https://www.wired.com/story/delhi-smog-air-pollution-cloud-seeding/):\n\n>India’s capital, New Delhi, is preparing a new weapon in the fight against deadly air pollution: cloud seeding. The experiment, which could take place as early as next week, would introduce chemicals like silver iodide into a cloudy sky to create rain and, it’s hoped, wash away the fine particulate matter hovering over one of the world’s largest cities.\n>\n>The need is desperate. Delhi has already tried traffic restriction measures, multimillion-dollar air filtration towers, and the use of fleets of water-spraying trucks to dissolve the particulate matter in the air—but to no avail.\n>\n>. . .\n>\n>Now, Delhi officials are seeking permission from federal agencies in India to try cloud seeding. The technique involves flying an aircraft to spray clouds with salts like silver or potassium iodide or solid carbon dioxide, also known as dry ice, to induce precipitation. The chemical molecules attach to moisture already in the clouds to form bigger droplets that then fall as rain. China has used artificial rain to tackle air pollution in the past—but for cloud seeding to work properly, you need significant cloud cover with reasonable moisture content, which Delhi generally lacks during the winter. If weather conditions are favorable, scientists leading the project at the Indian Institute of Technology in Kanpur plan to carry out cloud seeding around November 20.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, after November 14, 2023, and before December 1, 2023, credible sources report that Delhi has performed cloud seeding.", "fine_print": "* The cloud seeding need not successfully produce rain or cut down on the smog. This question only asks whether cloud seeding will be performed.\n* The cloud seeding need not occur directly over the Delhi region, so long as reports indicate that it was carried out with approval from the Delhi regional or local government.\n* There is no requirement on the scope or scale of the cloud seeding, so long as credible sources report that cloud seeding has been performed.\n* Metaculus may wait for additional confirmation from credible sources to resolve if the credibility of the initial reporting is in doubt.", "post_id": 19919, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1701383492.071316, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 83, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.005 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1701383492.071316, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 83, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.005 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.995, 0.005 ], "means": [ 0.050006127041436345 ], "histogram": [ [ 10.368719794481933, 4.855647819314269, 0.12949323017478093, 0.0, 0.02643125667787829, 0.03031140081165182, 0.009674152661148447, 0.019954887933908164, 0.0, 0.013371869685048636, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.044581621487903636, 0.0, 0.022767602106692503, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.024891358077342593, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.014824796017118348, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007597310053218979, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0018696454698634184, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00030038860271878445, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0026106503329410956, 0.0, 0.0010339533689454465, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0022195882369684906, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0008165408802466752, 0.0006246102070092039, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6969233821968767, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001734479849499291, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001557486043652286, 0.0, 0.44762040490108923, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 16.57698384231055, "coverage": 0.9999896651279178, "baseline_score": 38.76421600672434, "spot_peer_score": -6.827812757362943, "peer_archived_score": 16.57698384231055, "baseline_archived_score": 38.76421600672434, "spot_peer_archived_score": -6.827812757362943 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1701383492.174528, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 83, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1701383492.174528, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 83, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 10, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 384, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[New Delhi](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Delhi), the capital of India, has [been experiencing](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/19590/new-delhi-air-quality-end-of-october-2023/) very poor air quality. According to data from [AirNow](https://www.airnow.gov/international/us-embassies-and-consulates/#India$New_Delhi), the majority of the month of November has been at an [air quality index](https://www.airnow.gov/aqi/aqi-basics/) (AQI) level of \"Very Unhealthy\" or worse, and nearly half of the month has been at levels of \"Hazardous\".\n\n[According to a November 10th Nature article](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-023-03517-1):\n\n>As the Hindu festival of Diwali kicks off on 10 November, the Indian capital of Delhi, already blanketed in choking smog, is bracing for pollution to worsen. Over the past week, children struggling to breath the acrid air have flooded hospital emergency departments, and schools have been forced to close. . .\n>\n>“Every year it is a similar story,” says Vinayak Sinha, an atmospheric chemist at the Indian Institute of Science Education and Research Mohali.\n>\n>But although Delhi’s air is attracting attention now, scientists say that the spike is actually typical for this time of year. The post-monsoon season, which lasts from October to December, delivers an annual pollution bomb to Delhi, a megacity of more than 30 million people. Other cities in India are also plagued by poor air quality at this time of year.\n>\n>Sinha says that atmospheric conditions after the monsoon exacerbate pollution. Rainfall that washes pollutants out of the air during the monsoon ceases. As temperatures fall, the upper boundary of the troposphere — the lowest layer of atmosphere — drops in altitude and the troposphere shrinks. That causes the soup of pollutants in the troposphere to become more concentrated, says Sinha. “You have a smaller container now into which your air emissions are being stored,” he says.\n>\n>Even so, current conditions came as something of a surprise, says Karthik Ganesan, a policy researcher at the Council on Energy Environment and Water in New Delhi. That’s because the amount of crop waste burnt in the neighbouring Punjab region was lower than usual this year, causing some people to expect a milder increase in pollution.\n>\n>But as it turned out, air quality was as poor as ever because of changing meteorological conditions, including drops in wind speed on certain days. When wind speed falls, the air stagnates, trapping local emissions and leading to a pollution spike, says Ganesan.\n\nNew Delhi is reportedly considering new approaches to improve the air quality, such as cloud seeding. [According to Wired](https://www.wired.com/story/delhi-smog-air-pollution-cloud-seeding/):\n\n>India’s capital, New Delhi, is preparing a new weapon in the fight against deadly air pollution: cloud seeding. The experiment, which could take place as early as next week, would introduce chemicals like silver iodide into a cloudy sky to create rain and, it’s hoped, wash away the fine particulate matter hovering over one of the world’s largest cities.\n>\n>The need is desperate. Delhi has already tried traffic restriction measures, multimillion-dollar air filtration towers, and the use of fleets of water-spraying trucks to dissolve the particulate matter in the air—but to no avail.\n>\n>. . .\n>\n>Now, Delhi officials are seeking permission from federal agencies in India to try cloud seeding. The technique involves flying an aircraft to spray clouds with salts like silver or potassium iodide or solid carbon dioxide, also known as dry ice, to induce precipitation. The chemical molecules attach to moisture already in the clouds to form bigger droplets that then fall as rain. China has used artificial rain to tackle air pollution in the past—but for cloud seeding to work properly, you need significant cloud cover with reasonable moisture content, which Delhi generally lacks during the winter. If weather conditions are favorable, scientists leading the project at the Indian Institute of Technology in Kanpur plan to carry out cloud seeding around November 20." }, { "id": 19918, "title": "Will Andy Carlile's 7:10 BTG Nürburgring Nordschleife motorcycle laptime be beaten before 2030?", "short_title": "Motorcycle BTG Nordschleife lap below 7:10", "url_title": "Motorcycle BTG Nordschleife lap below 7:10", "slug": "motorcycle-btg-nordschleife-lap-below-710", "author_id": 116440, "author_username": "uganda", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-11-14T00:14:16.595613Z", "published_at": "2024-04-14T12:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:46.278165Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-04-14T12:00:00Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-04-14T12:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 4, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 19918, "title": "Will Andy Carlile's 7:10 BTG Nürburgring Nordschleife motorcycle laptime be beaten before 2030?", "created_at": "2023-11-14T00:14:16.595613Z", "open_time": "2024-04-14T12:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-04-17T12:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-04-17T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T06:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-12-31T06:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Video of 7:10 lap](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=inc9cGasgsA)\n\nThe Nürburgring Nordschleife is a historic racing track in Germany, famous for its length (19.1 km in BTG configuration) and difficulty. The track features over 150 corners, 1000 feet of elevation change, and few modern safety features, such as runoff area. It is well known among motorsports enthusiasts and is used by automakers for testing. For part of the year the track is open to road legal vehicles driven by the general public--so-called \"Touristenfahren.\" Andy Carlile (sometimes spelled Carlisle) is known for setting the fastest motorcycle lap time on this track in BTG configuration in 2012, clocking in at 7:10 on a road-legal Yamaha YZF-R1. This record has stood for over 11 years as of early 2024. BTG is short for bridge-to-gantry, the partial track configuration used during Touristenfahren, which omits part of the main straight.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** upon credible video evidence showing a lap time of under 7 minutes and 10 seconds on a motorcycle at the Nordschleife BTG (Bridge to Gantry), specifically during a Touristenfahren session. The lap time must be clearly displayed as less than 7:10, meaning rounding is not considered.\n\nIf this event does not happen before 2030, this question resolves as **No**.\n\nAny modifications to the track are allowed as long as the Nordschleife, Touristenfahren, and a layout considered to be BTG still exist.\n\nThis question does not resolve as ambiguous under any circumstances, including motorcycles being banned from the the track, the track permanently closing or the BTG layout no longer existing. If those or similar circumstances preclude any possibility of a <7:10 lap time before 2030, the question will resolve as **No** on the resolution date.", "fine_print": "A motorcycle is defined as a two-wheeled vehicle requiring the human rider to lean to turn. Autonomous motorcycles or any other vehicles that do not meet this definition do not qualify. \n\nAny video that clearly shows the entire lap and crossing of both the bridge and gantry in real life is considered credible.", "post_id": 19918, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1740436232.594752, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 3, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.243667677 ], "centers": [ 0.247 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.247 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1740436232.594752, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 3, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.243667677 ], "centers": [ 0.247 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.247 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.753, 0.247 ], "means": [ 0.2465552757549766 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.7277212189012763, 0.48092170020263214, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288775.968331, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 4, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288775.968331, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 4, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8900122844081869, 0.10998771559181311 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 8, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Video of 7:10 lap](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=inc9cGasgsA)\n\nThe Nürburgring Nordschleife is a historic racing track in Germany, famous for its length (19.1 km in BTG configuration) and difficulty. The track features over 150 corners, 1000 feet of elevation change, and few modern safety features, such as runoff area. It is well known among motorsports enthusiasts and is used by automakers for testing. For part of the year the track is open to road legal vehicles driven by the general public--so-called \"Touristenfahren.\" Andy Carlile (sometimes spelled Carlisle) is known for setting the fastest motorcycle lap time on this track in BTG configuration in 2012, clocking in at 7:10 on a road-legal Yamaha YZF-R1. This record has stood for over 11 years as of early 2024. BTG is short for bridge-to-gantry, the partial track configuration used during Touristenfahren, which omits part of the main straight." }, { "id": 19914, "title": "Will women be required to register for US Selective Service before 2026?", "short_title": "Draft Registration for Women before 2026?", "url_title": "Draft Registration for Women before 2026?", "slug": "draft-registration-for-women-before-2026", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-11-13T22:00:46.521599Z", "published_at": "2023-11-14T23:21:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-14T19:16:47.003514Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-11-14T23:21:00Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-11-14T23:21:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 31, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 19914, "title": "Will women be required to register for US Selective Service before 2026?", "created_at": "2023-11-13T22:00:46.521599Z", "open_time": "2023-11-14T23:21:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-11-17T23:21:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-11-17T23:21:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The US Supreme Court in June of 2021 [declined to hear a legal case](https://www.npr.org/2021/06/07/1003270634/supreme-court-turns-away-challenge-to-the-rule-that-only-men-register-for-the-dr) challenging the male-only draft on the grounds that it was unconstitutional sex discrimination. In the [opinion denying certification](https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/20pdf/20-928_e1p3.pdf) (written by Justice Sotomayor and joined by Justices Breyer and Kavanaugh) the following is stated (edited for easier readability):\n\n>In 2016, Congress created the National Commission on Military, National, and Public Service (NCMNPS) and tasked it with studying whether Selective Service registration should be conducted “regardless of sex.”\n\n>. . .\n\n>On March 25, 2020, the Commission released its final report, in which it recommended “eliminat[ing] male-only registration.” Among other things, the Commission found that “[m]ale-only registration sends a message to women not only that they are not vital to the defense of the country but also that they are not expected to participate in defending it.” Just a few months ago, the Senate Armed Services Committee held a hearing on the report, where Chairman Jack Reed expressed his “hope” that a gender-neutral registration requirement will be “incorporated into the next national defense bill.” \n\n>. . .\n\n>It remains to be seen, of course, whether Congress will end gender-based registration under the Military Selective Service Act. But at least for now, the Court’s longstanding deference to Congress on matters of national defense and military affairs cautions against granting review while Congress actively weighs the issue. I agree with the Court’s decision to deny the petition for a writ of certiorari.\n\nA provision requiring women to register appeared in both the [2021](https://www.politico.com/news/2021/12/06/ndaa-women-draft-dropped-523829) and [2022](https://www.stripes.com/theaters/us/2022-12-07/us-congress-covid-vaccine-8332200.html) versions of the Senate Armed Services Committee's proposed [National Defense Authorization Acts](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Defense_Authorization_Act), but was ultimately removed each year.", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve as **Yes** if women (assigned female at birth) are legally required to register for US Selective Service before January 1, 2026. Resolution will be determined by reference to official legal codes or text or by reporting from credible sources that women are required to register. To resolve as **Yes**, the law must take effect, resulting in women registering for the draft due to the requirement; a court decision or the enactment of a law that required women to register at a future date would not count until it came into effect, and a legal requirement to register on or after January 1, 2026 would not count.", "fine_print": "* This question will still resolve as **Yes** if there are exceptions to the requirement to register for some women of the required age range, so long as most women of the required age range are required to register.\n* Elimination of Selective Service registration in its entirety would result in the question resolving as **No**, if maintained through the date in question.", "post_id": 19914, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762379982.79, "end_time": 1785313565.606, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.005 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762379982.79, "end_time": 1785313565.606, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.005 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.012229442769444038 ], "histogram": [ [ 2.0255178459719696, 1.9367722839145873, 1.4078233911069136, 0.3125459761568258, 0.0, 0.07386240743899689, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289999.440816, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289999.440816, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.989258331862189, 0.010741668137810932 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 154, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The US Supreme Court in June of 2021 [declined to hear a legal case](https://www.npr.org/2021/06/07/1003270634/supreme-court-turns-away-challenge-to-the-rule-that-only-men-register-for-the-dr) challenging the male-only draft on the grounds that it was unconstitutional sex discrimination. In the [opinion denying certification](https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/20pdf/20-928_e1p3.pdf) (written by Justice Sotomayor and joined by Justices Breyer and Kavanaugh) the following is stated (edited for easier readability):\n\n>In 2016, Congress created the National Commission on Military, National, and Public Service (NCMNPS) and tasked it with studying whether Selective Service registration should be conducted “regardless of sex.”\n\n>. . .\n\n>On March 25, 2020, the Commission released its final report, in which it recommended “eliminat[ing] male-only registration.” Among other things, the Commission found that “[m]ale-only registration sends a message to women not only that they are not vital to the defense of the country but also that they are not expected to participate in defending it.” Just a few months ago, the Senate Armed Services Committee held a hearing on the report, where Chairman Jack Reed expressed his “hope” that a gender-neutral registration requirement will be “incorporated into the next national defense bill.” \n\n>. . .\n\n>It remains to be seen, of course, whether Congress will end gender-based registration under the Military Selective Service Act. But at least for now, the Court’s longstanding deference to Congress on matters of national defense and military affairs cautions against granting review while Congress actively weighs the issue. I agree with the Court’s decision to deny the petition for a writ of certiorari.\n\nA provision requiring women to register appeared in both the [2021](https://www.politico.com/news/2021/12/06/ndaa-women-draft-dropped-523829) and [2022](https://www.stripes.com/theaters/us/2022-12-07/us-congress-covid-vaccine-8332200.html) versions of the Senate Armed Services Committee's proposed [National Defense Authorization Acts](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Defense_Authorization_Act), but was ultimately removed each year." }, { "id": 19909, "title": "Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy visit Israel before 2024?", "short_title": "Volodymyr Zelenskyy Israel Visit Before 2024", "url_title": "Volodymyr Zelenskyy Israel Visit Before 2024", "slug": "volodymyr-zelenskyy-israel-visit-before-2024", "author_id": 123015, "author_username": "IY", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-11-13T18:46:41.176729Z", "published_at": "2023-11-15T15:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:20.027950Z", "curation_status": 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"bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2654, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q4 2023 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2023q4", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/quarterlycup.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-10-03T15:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-01-04T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-01-05T15:54:55.645171Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 19909, "title": "Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy visit Israel before 2024?", "created_at": "2023-11-13T18:46:41.176729Z", "open_time": "2023-11-15T15:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-11-17T12:18:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-11-17T12:18:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-03T17:33:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-03T17:33:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-01-03T17:33:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-04T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-04T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "From the onset of the [Gaza-Israel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gaza–Israel_conflict) conflict, many pro-Israeli nations have shown their support for Israel [via high profile visits](https://www.usnews.com/news/best-countries/articles/2023-11-03/why-canada-is-taking-a-cautious-approach-to-the-israel-hamas-war) including, US President Joe Biden, UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz.\n\nUkraine is another nation which is seen as pro-Israeli, however, in past and present times, the [relationship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel–Ukraine_relations#:~:text=Both%20countries%20recognized%20each%20other,a%20consulate%2Dgeneral%20in%20Haifa.) between both nations has appeared tentative. Israel still maintains friendly relations with Russia, and Israel has yet to outright condemn Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Israel has also, [until recently](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10293/israel-arms-ukraine-before-2024/?category=all&duration=1&year=2023), refused to send military aid to Ukraine which is in stark contrast to many of Israel's western allies.\n\nVolodymyr Zelenskyy initially indicated his [intention to visit](https://www.axios.com/2023/10/11/zelensky-israel-hamas-war-gaza-visit-netanyahu) Israel in a show of support, however this was initially [shot-down](https://news.yahoo.com/media-israel-refuses-zelensky-visit-140611433.html) by Netanyahu, stating that the \"*time is not right*\".\n\nThis decision was short-lived, as it was recently [reported](https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/preparations-for-zelensky-to-visit-israel-next-week-reportedly-in-advanced-phase/) that Zelenskyy's trip to Israel was in advanced stages of planning. Said reporting, however, was leaked (presumably by members of Netenyahu's government), and the trip was promptly [cancelled](https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2023/11/06/zelensky-s-trip-to-israel-in-doubt-after-media-leak_6231250_4.html):\n\n>According to the diplomat, the Ukrainian president \"wanted the trip to be public when he stepped on Israeli soil.\" \"He's very disappointed,\" he added.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Volodymyr Zelenskyy steps foot in Israel, for any reason, before 23:59 IST, December 31, 2023. \n\nOtherwise, it will resolve **No**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 19909, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1701680501.53107, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 112, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1701680501.53107, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 112, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9, 0.1 ], "means": [ 0.16910047656130006 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.2525234421068459, 0.0007675257748707193, 0.504732631449816, 0.7145841754254348, 2.9695107463957977, 1.9475504788842493, 0.2472675175305873, 0.3083447705147823, 0.62757532686961, 3.540344732922949, 0.9155102425173884, 0.696956310828841, 0.42669140822518037, 0.03937847168643575, 0.6435143652977129, 0.05492099964605583, 0.0, 0.0017636591650837267, 0.0, 0.718097367021086, 0.0, 0.14301242507236242, 0.0, 0.0, 0.38726473068077705, 0.013062532700666108, 0.0, 0.13529016037761737, 0.0, 0.41255644357579174, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0010686620243657346, 0.47991443928318106, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0005987133726784101, 0.0004287750568701284, 0.33414766806612, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02779205072670019, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.25577406392958063, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00010424239163311021, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.8207673335959451, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04816268109337523, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 9.539014030456718, "coverage": 0.9999437679642399, "baseline_score": 62.89016337886713, "spot_peer_score": 22.671255167967285, "peer_archived_score": 9.539014030456718, "baseline_archived_score": 62.89016337886713, "spot_peer_archived_score": 22.671255167967285 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1701680501.580138, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 112, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1701680501.580138, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 112, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9761640590911727, 0.023835940908827364 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 362, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "From the onset of the [Gaza-Israel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gaza–Israel_conflict) conflict, many pro-Israeli nations have shown their support for Israel [via high profile visits](https://www.usnews.com/news/best-countries/articles/2023-11-03/why-canada-is-taking-a-cautious-approach-to-the-israel-hamas-war) including, US President Joe Biden, UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz.\n\nUkraine is another nation which is seen as pro-Israeli, however, in past and present times, the [relationship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel–Ukraine_relations#:~:text=Both%20countries%20recognized%20each%20other,a%20consulate%2Dgeneral%20in%20Haifa.) between both nations has appeared tentative. Israel still maintains friendly relations with Russia, and Israel has yet to outright condemn Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Israel has also, [until recently](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10293/israel-arms-ukraine-before-2024/?category=all&duration=1&year=2023), refused to send military aid to Ukraine which is in stark contrast to many of Israel's western allies.\n\nVolodymyr Zelenskyy initially indicated his [intention to visit](https://www.axios.com/2023/10/11/zelensky-israel-hamas-war-gaza-visit-netanyahu) Israel in a show of support, however this was initially [shot-down](https://news.yahoo.com/media-israel-refuses-zelensky-visit-140611433.html) by Netanyahu, stating that the \"*time is not right*\".\n\nThis decision was short-lived, as it was recently [reported](https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/preparations-for-zelensky-to-visit-israel-next-week-reportedly-in-advanced-phase/) that Zelenskyy's trip to Israel was in advanced stages of planning. Said reporting, however, was leaked (presumably by members of Netenyahu's government), and the trip was promptly [cancelled](https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2023/11/06/zelensky-s-trip-to-israel-in-doubt-after-media-leak_6231250_4.html):\n\n>According to the diplomat, the Ukrainian president \"wanted the trip to be public when he stepped on Israeli soil.\" \"He's very disappointed,\" he added." }, { "id": 19898, "title": "Will Bitcoin reach $40,000 before January 1, 2024?", "short_title": "BTC $40k in 2023?", "url_title": "BTC $40k in 2023?", "slug": "btc-40k-in-2023", "author_id": 119767, "author_username": "PhilippSchoenegger", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-11-13T14:51:53.997289Z", "published_at": "2023-11-15T15:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:58.498499Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-11-15T15:00:00Z", "comment_count": 14, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-04T00:35:00Z", 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"economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3693, "name": "Cryptocurrencies", "slug": "cryptocurrencies", "emoji": "💰", "description": "Cryptocurrencies", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2654, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q4 2023 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2023q4", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/quarterlycup.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-10-03T15:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-01-04T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-01-05T15:54:55.645171Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2654, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q4 2023 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2023q4", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/quarterlycup.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-10-03T15:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-01-04T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-01-05T15:54:55.645171Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 19898, "title": "Will Bitcoin reach $40,000 before January 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2023-11-13T14:51:53.997289Z", "open_time": "2023-11-15T15:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-11-18T15:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-11-18T15:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-12-04T00:35:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-12-04T00:35:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-04T00:35:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "At the beginning of 2023 BTC traded at between $16,000 and $17,000 in the wake of the [FTX collapse](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/10/technology/ftx-binance-crypto-explained.html) in late 2022 and a general [crypto market downturn in 2022](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2022-crypto-contagion-from-bitcoin-to-FTX/). Since then, BTC has surged to over $37,000, levels that had not been seen since early 2022. Whether or not BTC will reach the $40,000 threshold in 2023 has been a [topic of recent discussion.](https://coinpedia.org/price-analysis/bitcoins-battle-for-40k-what-lies-ahead-in-q4-2023/#:~:text=Bitcoin%20Price%20Prediction%20By%20Crypto%20Analyst%3A&text=The%20analysts%20predicted%20that%20if,year%20around%20the%20same%20range.)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Bitcoin (BTC) reaches a price of $40,000 or more before January 1, 2024. Whether or not the price is at or above $40,000 at the end of the year does not matter. This question resolves solely on the basis of whether BTC reaches or exceeds the $40,000 threshold. The primary resolution source is [CoinMarketCap]( https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/) If the resolution source is unavailable, other comparable sources may be used. However, if sources disagree, CoinMarketCap is the primary source.", "fine_print": "In the case of uncertainty regarding whether the threshold has been met on CoinMarketCap, we will use the five minute increments available on the one day price view on the chart. Note that the most recent few minutes may use a smaller time increment, however, to resolve as **Yes** the threshold must be met or exceeded at the five minute or larger time increment when the resolution source is accessed at a later time by Metaculus.", "post_id": 19898, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1701705325.36318, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 106, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.999 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1701705325.36318, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 106, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.999 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.0010000000000000009, 0.999 ], "means": [ 0.9711516724255996 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005013454196939874, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0036786318303425264, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1734915479669947, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0050078357053875994, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00408759452487577, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005179738732610148, 0.0, 0.002640647313302665, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006671456224926604, 0.0, 0.0001909346503134918, 0.0, 0.0003160651598784178, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08159473194410838, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00013894719645662337, 0.3409274149658343, 0.00024960518686219994, 0.0, 0.011234427214325807, 0.0, 0.3089956165165272, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008845328803183903, 0.0, 0.08084841945592093, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0341296173624065, 0.0, 0.05418085032293946, 0.014803855717505985, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01741136469478341, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03555744615196201, 0.04902032594367584, 0.1466266208268635, 0.032065469620867, 0.0458372495406289, 0.45308580379977154, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1210920954982069, 17.052426192029827 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 9.40751990993835, "coverage": 0.40104944336587534, "baseline_score": 13.624604904161389, "spot_peer_score": 20.176680145220832, "peer_archived_score": 9.40751990993835, "baseline_archived_score": 13.624604904161389, "spot_peer_archived_score": 20.176680145220832 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1701648748.706508, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 100, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1701648748.706508, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 100, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.062445917497547465, 0.9375540825024525 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 12, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 476, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "At the beginning of 2023 BTC traded at between $16,000 and $17,000 in the wake of the [FTX collapse](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/10/technology/ftx-binance-crypto-explained.html) in late 2022 and a general [crypto market downturn in 2022](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2022-crypto-contagion-from-bitcoin-to-FTX/). Since then, BTC has surged to over $37,000, levels that had not been seen since early 2022. Whether or not BTC will reach the $40,000 threshold in 2023 has been a [topic of recent discussion.](https://coinpedia.org/price-analysis/bitcoins-battle-for-40k-what-lies-ahead-in-q4-2023/#:~:text=Bitcoin%20Price%20Prediction%20By%20Crypto%20Analyst%3A&text=The%20analysts%20predicted%20that%20if,year%20around%20the%20same%20range.)" }, { "id": 19879, "title": "Will Tesla be able to mass produce humanoid robots by the end of 2027?", "short_title": "Will Tesla mass produce humanoid robots", "url_title": "Will Tesla mass produce humanoid robots", "slug": "will-tesla-mass-produce-humanoid-robots", "author_id": 154578, "author_username": "TimeTraveller34", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-11-11T17:25:19.754062Z", "published_at": "2024-01-20T22:40:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-16T20:56:02.855791Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-01-20T22:40:00Z", "comment_count": 29, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-12-31T23:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-01-20T22:40:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 162, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 19879, "title": "Will Tesla be able to mass produce humanoid robots by the end of 2027?", "created_at": "2023-11-11T17:25:19.754062Z", "open_time": "2024-01-20T22:40:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-01-23T22:40:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-01-23T22:40:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-12-31T23:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2027-12-31T23:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "#### From the [Humanoid robot Wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Humanoid_robot)\n\n> A humanoid robot is a robot resembling the human body in shape. The design may be for functional purposes, such as interacting with human tools and environments, for experimental purposes, such as the study of bipedal locomotion, or for other purposes. In general, humanoid robots have a torso, a head, two arms, and two legs, though some humanoid robots may replicate only part of the body, for example, from the waist up. Some humanoid robots also have heads designed to replicate human facial features such as eyes and mouths. Androids are humanoid robots built to aesthetically resemble humans.\n\n\n\n####[Current progress on Optimus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Optimus_(robot))\n\n> Optimus, also known as Tesla Bot, is a conceptual general-purpose robotic humanoid under development by Tesla, Inc. It was announced at the companies Artificial Intelligence (AI) Day event on August 19, 2021. CEO Elon Musk claimed during the event that Tesla would likely build a prototype by 2022.\n\n> Tesla CEO Elon Musk at AI Day 2022 unveiled the companies progress showing Optimus which shuffled across a stage, waved, and pumped its arms in a low-speed dance move. The robot could cost $20,000 within three to five years, Musk said.\n\n> Musk said on X in May 2023 that the \"Optimus Team is making excellent progress\". Tesla then posted a progress update of Optimus in a YouTube video in October 2023 with accompanying text saying it's \"now capable of self-calibrating its arms and legs.\"\n\n[The video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D2vj0WcvH5c) shows the robot sorting building blocks by colour using its hands, vision, and Tesla's on-board neural net. The clip ends with Optimus doing some yoga stretches. \n\n####For more details on Tesla's progress see:\n* https://www.cnet.com/home/smart-home/tesla-reveals-optimus-a-walking-humanoid-robot-you-could-buy-in-2027/\n* https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-humanoid-robots-tesla-hiring-workers-2023-11?r=US&IR=T\n* https://www.theverge.com/2023/5/16/23726139/tesla-robot-update-video-shareholder-meeting", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves Yes if credible reports indicate Tesla has manufactured at least one thousand humanoid robots of an identical model before January 1, 2028.", "fine_print": "A humanoid robot in this context means: - \n\n* A bi-pedal robot with two arms, two legs, a head and torso\n * That can perform at least the basic tasks of walking, picking up objects and carrying.\n* These will perform tasks autonomously driven by A.I.\n* They should not be directly controlled by humans.", "post_id": 19879, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763326552.539852, "end_time": 1763562510.111336, "forecaster_count": 65, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763326552.539852, "end_time": 1763562510.111336, "forecaster_count": 65, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.75, 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.3026603991072424 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.01946471143816275, 0.16033078766442682, 0.00998219850748057, 0.6474576874951709, 0.03615026489382792, 0.7526602916504599, 0.0, 0.17592413500841017, 0.0, 0.9396406647936779, 0.34465865175079846, 0.0, 1.0096600712833605, 0.2992119338252941, 0.0, 0.7857674650181603, 0.6013712881616845, 0.0, 0.08253825588130179, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1073881054056872, 2.122912946536407, 0.37113480134217347, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3484205565456394, 0.0, 0.14989147521115825, 0.3217261638678274, 0.0, 0.457422476445143, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.39948523382649387, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19030380486090423, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22205743285900253, 0.0, 2.0838988471786237, 0.0, 0.8284076835897499, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23954639433616837, 0.0, 0.0, 0.017210119101531127, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16247035089338988, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03727564341400632, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13137746615510243, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004442640210629016, 0.48978511741558245, 0.0, 0.0, 0.051651386754525144, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.028449180174312277 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287471.793634, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 128, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287471.793634, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 128, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9629939189102649, 0.03700608108973517 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 14, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 454, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "#### From the [Humanoid robot Wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Humanoid_robot)\n\n> A humanoid robot is a robot resembling the human body in shape. The design may be for functional purposes, such as interacting with human tools and environments, for experimental purposes, such as the study of bipedal locomotion, or for other purposes. In general, humanoid robots have a torso, a head, two arms, and two legs, though some humanoid robots may replicate only part of the body, for example, from the waist up. Some humanoid robots also have heads designed to replicate human facial features such as eyes and mouths. Androids are humanoid robots built to aesthetically resemble humans.\n\n\n\n####[Current progress on Optimus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Optimus_(robot))\n\n> Optimus, also known as Tesla Bot, is a conceptual general-purpose robotic humanoid under development by Tesla, Inc. It was announced at the companies Artificial Intelligence (AI) Day event on August 19, 2021. CEO Elon Musk claimed during the event that Tesla would likely build a prototype by 2022.\n\n> Tesla CEO Elon Musk at AI Day 2022 unveiled the companies progress showing Optimus which shuffled across a stage, waved, and pumped its arms in a low-speed dance move. The robot could cost $20,000 within three to five years, Musk said.\n\n> Musk said on X in May 2023 that the \"Optimus Team is making excellent progress\". Tesla then posted a progress update of Optimus in a YouTube video in October 2023 with accompanying text saying it's \"now capable of self-calibrating its arms and legs.\"\n\n[The video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D2vj0WcvH5c) shows the robot sorting building blocks by colour using its hands, vision, and Tesla's on-board neural net. The clip ends with Optimus doing some yoga stretches. \n\n####For more details on Tesla's progress see:\n* https://www.cnet.com/home/smart-home/tesla-reveals-optimus-a-walking-humanoid-robot-you-could-buy-in-2027/\n* https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-humanoid-robots-tesla-hiring-workers-2023-11?r=US&IR=T\n* https://www.theverge.com/2023/5/16/23726139/tesla-robot-update-video-shareholder-meeting" } ] }
\n\n####[Current](http://robot)](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/c/ca/Optimus_Tesla.jpg/353px-Optimus_Tesla.jpg)%5Cn%5Cn####[Current){kind=link}