Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=3360
{ "count": 6367, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=3380", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=3340", "results": [ { "id": 19879, "title": "Will Tesla be able to mass produce humanoid robots by the end of 2027?", "short_title": "Will Tesla mass produce humanoid robots", "url_title": "Will Tesla mass produce humanoid robots", "slug": "will-tesla-mass-produce-humanoid-robots", "author_id": 154578, "author_username": "TimeTraveller34", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-11-11T17:25:19.754062Z", "published_at": "2024-01-20T22:40:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-16T20:56:02.855791Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-01-20T22:40:00Z", "comment_count": 29, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-12-31T23:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-01-20T22:40:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 162, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 19879, "title": "Will Tesla be able to mass produce humanoid robots by the end of 2027?", "created_at": "2023-11-11T17:25:19.754062Z", "open_time": "2024-01-20T22:40:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-01-23T22:40:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-01-23T22:40:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-12-31T23:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2027-12-31T23:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "#### From the [Humanoid robot Wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Humanoid_robot)\n\n> A humanoid robot is a robot resembling the human body in shape. The design may be for functional purposes, such as interacting with human tools and environments, for experimental purposes, such as the study of bipedal locomotion, or for other purposes. In general, humanoid robots have a torso, a head, two arms, and two legs, though some humanoid robots may replicate only part of the body, for example, from the waist up. Some humanoid robots also have heads designed to replicate human facial features such as eyes and mouths. Androids are humanoid robots built to aesthetically resemble humans.\n\n\n\n####[Current progress on Optimus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Optimus_(robot))\n\n> Optimus, also known as Tesla Bot, is a conceptual general-purpose robotic humanoid under development by Tesla, Inc. It was announced at the companies Artificial Intelligence (AI) Day event on August 19, 2021. CEO Elon Musk claimed during the event that Tesla would likely build a prototype by 2022.\n\n> Tesla CEO Elon Musk at AI Day 2022 unveiled the companies progress showing Optimus which shuffled across a stage, waved, and pumped its arms in a low-speed dance move. The robot could cost $20,000 within three to five years, Musk said.\n\n> Musk said on X in May 2023 that the \"Optimus Team is making excellent progress\". Tesla then posted a progress update of Optimus in a YouTube video in October 2023 with accompanying text saying it's \"now capable of self-calibrating its arms and legs.\"\n\n[The video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D2vj0WcvH5c) shows the robot sorting building blocks by colour using its hands, vision, and Tesla's on-board neural net. The clip ends with Optimus doing some yoga stretches. \n\n####For more details on Tesla's progress see:\n* https://www.cnet.com/home/smart-home/tesla-reveals-optimus-a-walking-humanoid-robot-you-could-buy-in-2027/\n* https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-humanoid-robots-tesla-hiring-workers-2023-11?r=US&IR=T\n* https://www.theverge.com/2023/5/16/23726139/tesla-robot-update-video-shareholder-meeting", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves Yes if credible reports indicate Tesla has manufactured at least one thousand humanoid robots of an identical model before January 1, 2028.", "fine_print": "A humanoid robot in this context means: - \n\n* A bi-pedal robot with two arms, two legs, a head and torso\n * That can perform at least the basic tasks of walking, picking up objects and carrying.\n* These will perform tasks autonomously driven by A.I.\n* They should not be directly controlled by humans.", "post_id": 19879, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763326552.539852, "end_time": 1763562510.111336, "forecaster_count": 65, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763326552.539852, "end_time": 1763562510.111336, "forecaster_count": 65, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.75, 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.3026603991072424 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.01946471143816275, 0.16033078766442682, 0.00998219850748057, 0.6474576874951709, 0.03615026489382792, 0.7526602916504599, 0.0, 0.17592413500841017, 0.0, 0.9396406647936779, 0.34465865175079846, 0.0, 1.0096600712833605, 0.2992119338252941, 0.0, 0.7857674650181603, 0.6013712881616845, 0.0, 0.08253825588130179, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1073881054056872, 2.122912946536407, 0.37113480134217347, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3484205565456394, 0.0, 0.14989147521115825, 0.3217261638678274, 0.0, 0.457422476445143, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.39948523382649387, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19030380486090423, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22205743285900253, 0.0, 2.0838988471786237, 0.0, 0.8284076835897499, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23954639433616837, 0.0, 0.0, 0.017210119101531127, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16247035089338988, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03727564341400632, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13137746615510243, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004442640210629016, 0.48978511741558245, 0.0, 0.0, 0.051651386754525144, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.028449180174312277 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287471.793634, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 128, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287471.793634, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 128, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9629939189102649, 0.03700608108973517 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 14, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 454, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "#### From the [Humanoid robot Wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Humanoid_robot)\n\n> A humanoid robot is a robot resembling the human body in shape. The design may be for functional purposes, such as interacting with human tools and environments, for experimental purposes, such as the study of bipedal locomotion, or for other purposes. In general, humanoid robots have a torso, a head, two arms, and two legs, though some humanoid robots may replicate only part of the body, for example, from the waist up. Some humanoid robots also have heads designed to replicate human facial features such as eyes and mouths. Androids are humanoid robots built to aesthetically resemble humans.\n\n\n\n####[Current progress on Optimus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Optimus_(robot))\n\n> Optimus, also known as Tesla Bot, is a conceptual general-purpose robotic humanoid under development by Tesla, Inc. It was announced at the companies Artificial Intelligence (AI) Day event on August 19, 2021. CEO Elon Musk claimed during the event that Tesla would likely build a prototype by 2022.\n\n> Tesla CEO Elon Musk at AI Day 2022 unveiled the companies progress showing Optimus which shuffled across a stage, waved, and pumped its arms in a low-speed dance move. The robot could cost $20,000 within three to five years, Musk said.\n\n> Musk said on X in May 2023 that the \"Optimus Team is making excellent progress\". Tesla then posted a progress update of Optimus in a YouTube video in October 2023 with accompanying text saying it's \"now capable of self-calibrating its arms and legs.\"\n\n[The video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D2vj0WcvH5c) shows the robot sorting building blocks by colour using its hands, vision, and Tesla's on-board neural net. The clip ends with Optimus doing some yoga stretches. \n\n####For more details on Tesla's progress see:\n* https://www.cnet.com/home/smart-home/tesla-reveals-optimus-a-walking-humanoid-robot-you-could-buy-in-2027/\n* https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-humanoid-robots-tesla-hiring-workers-2023-11?r=US&IR=T\n* https://www.theverge.com/2023/5/16/23726139/tesla-robot-update-video-shareholder-meeting" }, { "id": 19878, "title": "Will China be able to mass produce humanoid robots by the end of 2025?", "short_title": "Will China mass produce humanoid robots", "url_title": "Will China mass produce humanoid robots", "slug": "will-china-mass-produce-humanoid-robots", "author_id": 154578, "author_username": "TimeTraveller34", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-11-11T16:13:52.694918Z", "published_at": "2024-02-25T02:58:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-14T20:00:06.509355Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-02-25T02:58:00Z", "comment_count": 30, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-02-25T02:58:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 102, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32601, "name": "2024-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 19878, "title": "Will China be able to mass produce humanoid robots by the end of 2025?", "created_at": "2023-11-11T16:13:52.694918Z", "open_time": "2024-02-25T02:58:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-02-28T02:58:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-02-28T02:58:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-31T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "#### From the [ Humanoid robot Wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Humanoid_robot)\n\nA humanoid robot is a robot resembling the human body in shape. The design may be for functional purposes, such as interacting with human tools and environments, for experimental purposes, such as the study of bipedal locomotion, or for other purposes. In general, humanoid robots have a torso, a head, two arms, and two legs, though some humanoid robots may replicate only part of the body, for example, from the waist up. Some humanoid robots also have heads designed to replicate human facial features such as eyes and mouths. Androids are humanoid robots built to aesthetically resemble humans.\n\n\n\n\n####Current progress\n\nBy 2025, China aims to establish an initial humanoid robot innovation system, achieving breakthroughs in crucial components such as “brains, cerebellum, and limbs,” while ensuring a safe and efficient supply of core components. The production level for these robots is expected to reach an advanced international standard, with mass production occurring. These robots are anticipated to demonstrate their effectiveness across various fields, from manufacturing to livelihood services.\n\nAmong China's most advanced projects are those by Xiaomi and Fourier Intelligence. Xiaomi is working on its CyberOne, a robot that is supposed to be capable not only of perceiving space in 3D, but also of recognising individuals and interpreting their gestures, expressions and emotions. Combined with artificial intelligence, it could one day interact directly with humans. For its part, Fourier Intelligence is preparing to launch its first humanoid robot, the GR-1, specialised in medical actions, capable of moving at 5 km/h and carrying loads of several dozen kilogrammes. Its first deliveries are scheduled for 2024.\n\n####For more details on China's progress see:\n\n* https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2023/11/china-ministry-pushes-for-humanoid-robot-mass-production-by-2025-and-100-billion-market-by-2030.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter\n* https://www.thestar.com.my/tech/tech-news/2023/11/09/china-aims-to-mass-produce-humanoid-robots-by-2027\n* https://www.scmp.com/news/china/politics/article/3240259/china-says-humanoid-robots-are-new-engine-growth-pushes-mass-production-2025-and-world-leadership", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves Yes if credible reports indicate a robotics company with headquarters in China has manufactured more than a thousand humanoid robots of an identical model before the end of 2025.", "fine_print": "A humanoid robot in this context means: - \n\n* A bi-pedal robot with two arms, two legs, a head and torso\n * That can perform at least the basic tasks of walking, picking up objects and carrying.\n* These will perform tasks autonomously driven by A.I.\n* They should not be directly controlled by humans.", "post_id": 19878, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763015114.395847, "end_time": 1763551405.855, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "centers": [ 0.95 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763015114.395847, "end_time": 1763551405.855, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "centers": [ 0.95 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.050000000000000044, 0.95 ], "means": [ 0.8873599327190024 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11777121751898838, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6356799761664509, 0.0, 0.00869886565297425, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9027599061179609, 0.2501577142572954, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8379487954001852, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.47494197203925326, 0.2618869728044001, 0.15303057390686983, 1.3439352024707598, 0.0, 2.683728981338012, 0.9160279542388619, 0.0, 0.3109202893916707, 1.1028778590432688 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288711.201262, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 70, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288711.201262, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 70, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9094415788742092, 0.09055842112579088 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 11, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 375, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "#### From the [ Humanoid robot Wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Humanoid_robot)\n\nA humanoid robot is a robot resembling the human body in shape. The design may be for functional purposes, such as interacting with human tools and environments, for experimental purposes, such as the study of bipedal locomotion, or for other purposes. In general, humanoid robots have a torso, a head, two arms, and two legs, though some humanoid robots may replicate only part of the body, for example, from the waist up. Some humanoid robots also have heads designed to replicate human facial features such as eyes and mouths. Androids are humanoid robots built to aesthetically resemble humans.\n\n\n\n\n####Current progress\n\nBy 2025, China aims to establish an initial humanoid robot innovation system, achieving breakthroughs in crucial components such as “brains, cerebellum, and limbs,” while ensuring a safe and efficient supply of core components. The production level for these robots is expected to reach an advanced international standard, with mass production occurring. These robots are anticipated to demonstrate their effectiveness across various fields, from manufacturing to livelihood services.\n\nAmong China's most advanced projects are those by Xiaomi and Fourier Intelligence. Xiaomi is working on its CyberOne, a robot that is supposed to be capable not only of perceiving space in 3D, but also of recognising individuals and interpreting their gestures, expressions and emotions. Combined with artificial intelligence, it could one day interact directly with humans. For its part, Fourier Intelligence is preparing to launch its first humanoid robot, the GR-1, specialised in medical actions, capable of moving at 5 km/h and carrying loads of several dozen kilogrammes. Its first deliveries are scheduled for 2024.\n\n####For more details on China's progress see:\n\n* https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2023/11/china-ministry-pushes-for-humanoid-robot-mass-production-by-2025-and-100-billion-market-by-2030.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter\n* https://www.thestar.com.my/tech/tech-news/2023/11/09/china-aims-to-mass-produce-humanoid-robots-by-2027\n* https://www.scmp.com/news/china/politics/article/3240259/china-says-humanoid-robots-are-new-engine-growth-pushes-mass-production-2025-and-world-leadership" }, { "id": 19877, "title": "Will at least 2 of the countries listed below be reinfected with either WPV1 or cVDPV before June 1, 2024?", "short_title": "Polio Reinfections?", "url_title": "Polio Reinfections?", "slug": "polio-reinfections", "author_id": 119767, "author_username": "PhilippSchoenegger", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-11-11T15:47:56.221963Z", "published_at": "2023-12-01T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:25.184593Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-12-01T15:30:00Z", "comment_count": 14, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-02-29T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-02-29T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-06-06T16:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-06-06T16:59:00Z", "open_time": "2023-12-01T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 52, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": 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"edited_at": "2025-08-23T04:20:28.408654Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2722, "type": "tournament", "name": "Global Pulse Tournament", "slug": "global-pulse", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/gpt-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2023-12-01T15:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-06-11T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-02-29T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-10T21:04:05.578713Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-23T04:20:28.408654Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 19877, "title": "Will at least 2 of the countries listed below be reinfected with either WPV1 or cVDPV before June 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2023-11-11T15:47:56.221963Z", "open_time": "2023-12-01T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-01-01T12:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-01-01T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-06-06T16:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-06-06T16:59:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-06-06T16:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-02-29T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-02-29T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In May 2014, the [WHO declared the spread of poliovirus a global health emergency,](https://polioeradication.org/polio-today/polio-now/public-health-emergency-status/#:~:text=On%205%20May%202014%20the,poliovirus%2C%20and%20requested%20a%20reassessment) leading to ongoing efforts to combat the disease. As of 2023, countries like Afghanistan, Pakistan, and several African nations continue to report cases of wild and vaccine-derived poliovirus. Conversely, nations such as Canada, Egypt, and Uganda, previously affected, now [face the risk of reinfection despite being currently free of active cases](https://polioeradication.org/polio-today/polio-now/public-health-emergency-status/). This situation highlights the persistent threat of polio, especially in areas with inadequate vaccination coverage, and underscores the need for sustained vigilance and immunization efforts globally to prevent resurgence and achieve eradication. For a weekly update, [see here](https://polioeradication.org/this-week/).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if two or more countries that are currently listed as no longer infected but vulnerable to re-infection are no longer on that list as of May 31, 2024, due to experiencing re-infection, according to the [Global Polio Eradication Initiative](https://polioeradication.org/polio-today/polio-now/public-health-emergency-status/). The relevant countries are: Djibouti, Canada, Egypt, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Gambia, Mauritania, Senegal, Uganda, and Ukraine that are currently no longer infected. On May 31, this list will be accessed again and any of the above listed countries that are listed as a state infected with any of the polio variants will be counted for resolution. The final value is the sum of these.", "fine_print": "* New additions to the list of no longer infected countries will not be relevant for resolution.\r\n* If the resolution source is no longer updated, we will refer to publications from any PHEIC meeting that occur before the resolution date, using the most recent ones.", "post_id": 19877, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1708850516.091095, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 52, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.81 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1708850516.091095, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 52, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.81 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.15000000000000002, 0.85 ], "means": [ 0.8334554703117852 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005455655232684382, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12098568606878847, 0.0030369881689754252, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002007023398223986, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17659841324481915, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09577310539958149, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01040622348426393, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004173285167582051, 0.03550367010089748, 0.27389162834287195, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8612037126083073, 0.031134300295554664, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05138228252970245, 0.21134819307803016, 0.006908280092399992, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04559318956273326, 0.5322622082800585, 0.8743281366997349, 0.0, 0.2515406540753948, 1.4817346416537838, 1.4510323223003523, 1.4304298116832137, 0.1333270524573957, 0.9626324682969808, 0.0, 2.47589584724076, 0.0, 0.7621474614065294, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2978686829232104, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23072242730151374, 0.10957976461626417 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 25.367665042695325, "coverage": 0.9980978939817737, "baseline_score": 27.923649363915874, "spot_peer_score": 36.17530601270906, "peer_archived_score": 25.367665042695325, "baseline_archived_score": 27.923649363915874, "spot_peer_archived_score": 36.17530601270906 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1709192439.124491, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 52, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1709192439.124491, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 52, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.1554594689349854, 0.8445405310650146 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 191, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In May 2014, the [WHO declared the spread of poliovirus a global health emergency,](https://polioeradication.org/polio-today/polio-now/public-health-emergency-status/#:~:text=On%205%20May%202014%20the,poliovirus%2C%20and%20requested%20a%20reassessment) leading to ongoing efforts to combat the disease. As of 2023, countries like Afghanistan, Pakistan, and several African nations continue to report cases of wild and vaccine-derived poliovirus. Conversely, nations such as Canada, Egypt, and Uganda, previously affected, now [face the risk of reinfection despite being currently free of active cases](https://polioeradication.org/polio-today/polio-now/public-health-emergency-status/). This situation highlights the persistent threat of polio, especially in areas with inadequate vaccination coverage, and underscores the need for sustained vigilance and immunization efforts globally to prevent resurgence and achieve eradication. For a weekly update, [see here](https://polioeradication.org/this-week/)." }, { "id": 19873, "title": "Will there be at least one operational nuclear power plant in Germany on May 31, 2024?", "short_title": "Germany Nuclear Plants", "url_title": "Germany Nuclear Plants", "slug": "germany-nuclear-plants", "author_id": 119767, "author_username": "PhilippSchoenegger", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-11-11T15:44:27.288531Z", "published_at": "2023-12-01T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:48.550155Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-12-01T15:30:00Z", "comment_count": 17, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-02-29T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-02-29T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-06-01T16:07:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-06-01T16:07:00Z", "open_time": "2023-12-01T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 114, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15868, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☣️", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3690, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☢️", "description": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2722, "type": "tournament", "name": "Global Pulse Tournament", "slug": "global-pulse", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/gpt-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2023-12-01T15:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-06-11T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-02-29T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-10T21:04:05.578713Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-23T04:20:28.408654Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2722, "type": "tournament", "name": "Global Pulse Tournament", "slug": "global-pulse", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/gpt-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2023-12-01T15:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-06-11T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-02-29T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-10T21:04:05.578713Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-23T04:20:28.408654Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 19873, "title": "Will there be at least one operational nuclear power plant in Germany on May 31, 2024?", "created_at": "2023-11-11T15:44:27.288531Z", "open_time": "2023-12-01T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-01-01T12:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-01-01T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-06-01T16:07:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-06-01T16:07:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-06-01T16:07:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-02-29T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-02-29T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Germany finalized its long-planned exit from nuclear energy in [April 2023](https://www.base.bund.de/EN/ns/nuclear-phase-out/nuclear-phase-out_node.html), shutting down its last three nuclear power plants. This decision was part of a [policy shift that began in 1998](https://world-nuclear.org/information-library/country-profiles/countries-g-n/germany.aspx), with the government initially planning to phase out nuclear power, a plan briefly cancelled in 2009 but reinstated in 2011 following the [Fukushima Daiichi](https://world-nuclear.org/information-library/safety-and-security/safety-of-plants/fukushima-daiichi-accident.aspx) accident. By early 2011, Germany had 17 nuclear reactors supplying over one-quarter of its electricity, but this number was progressively reduced. The final closure of the remaining reactors in 2023 marked a significant energy transition for Germany, moving away from nuclear power towards other energy sources. A [2023](https://www.radiantenergygroup.com/reports/restart-of-germany-reactors-can-it-be-done) report found that two-thirds of Germans support nuclear energy and that at least 8 of the old reactors can be restarted within as little as 9 months.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as 'Yes' if there is at least one operational nuclear power plant in Germany on May 31, 2024. The primary source for this determination will be the [Nuclear power in Germany](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_power_in_Germany) page, which is expected to be updated with the operational status of nuclear power plants. If the page has not been updated or there is ambiguity regarding the operational status, the question will resolve based on the most recent and reliable information from German government announcements, energy oversight bodies, or reputable energy sector news outlets. 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This decision was part of a [policy shift that began in 1998](https://world-nuclear.org/information-library/country-profiles/countries-g-n/germany.aspx), with the government initially planning to phase out nuclear power, a plan briefly cancelled in 2009 but reinstated in 2011 following the [Fukushima Daiichi](https://world-nuclear.org/information-library/safety-and-security/safety-of-plants/fukushima-daiichi-accident.aspx) accident. By early 2011, Germany had 17 nuclear reactors supplying over one-quarter of its electricity, but this number was progressively reduced. The final closure of the remaining reactors in 2023 marked a significant energy transition for Germany, moving away from nuclear power towards other energy sources. A [2023](https://www.radiantenergygroup.com/reports/restart-of-germany-reactors-can-it-be-done) report found that two-thirds of Germans support nuclear energy and that at least 8 of the old reactors can be restarted within as little as 9 months." }, { "id": 19871, "title": "Will any OpenAI or Anthropic model be in the top-10 model with a non-proprietary license on May 31, 2024?", "short_title": "Anthropic/OpenAI Licenses", "url_title": "Anthropic/OpenAI Licenses", "slug": "anthropicopenai-licenses", "author_id": 119767, "author_username": "PhilippSchoenegger", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-11-11T15:42:39.144282Z", "published_at": "2023-12-01T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:07.087719Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-12-01T15:30:00Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-02-29T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-02-29T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-05-31T16:15:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-05-31T16:15:00Z", "open_time": "2023-12-01T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 62, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2722, "type": "tournament", "name": "Global Pulse Tournament", "slug": "global-pulse", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/gpt-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2023-12-01T15:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-06-11T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-02-29T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-10T21:04:05.578713Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-23T04:20:28.408654Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2722, "type": "tournament", "name": "Global Pulse Tournament", "slug": "global-pulse", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/gpt-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2023-12-01T15:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-06-11T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-02-29T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-10T21:04:05.578713Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-23T04:20:28.408654Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 19871, "title": "Will any OpenAI or Anthropic model be in the top-10 model with a non-proprietary license on May 31, 2024?", "created_at": "2023-11-11T15:42:39.144282Z", "open_time": "2023-12-01T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-01-01T12:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-01-01T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-05-31T16:15:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-05-31T16:15:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-05-31T16:15:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-02-29T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-02-29T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In the current AI landscape, there's a significant divide between proprietary and open-source AI models. Proprietary AI, represented by LLM models like OpenAI's ChatGPT and Anthropic's Claude, boasts substantial market influence and development, supported by extensive resources and large model and training run sizes. On the other hand, open-source AI models like Llama, Falcon, and Mistral rely on more open source approaches as well as lower model sizes. At the moment, proprietary models dominate the LLM [leaderboards](https://huggingface.co/spaces/lmsys/chatbot-arena-leaderboard), though given the fast-moving nature of this industry, it is unclear whether the advantage of large, proprietary models will be sustained.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if there is at least one model in the top-10 that has a non-proprietary licence and is released by Anthropic or OpenAI based on the rankings of models on the [Chatbot Arena Leaderboard](https://huggingface.co/spaces/lmsys/chatbot-arena-leaderboard) hosted on the Hugging Face website. Any license that is not ‘Proprietary’ is sufficient for a model to count for resolution. If the leaderboard does not provide sufficient information regarding the licensing or is not updated by the resolution date, the question will resolve as ambiguous.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 19871, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1709171157.164794, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 62, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.03 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1709171157.164794, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 62, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.98, 0.02 ], "means": [ 0.029422494042423364 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.0497851112781138, 4.098645546559623, 2.558160484682996, 3.1397386881959233, 1.336234872886179, 0.8796327146559954, 0.48066753395180806, 0.12937938925547218, 0.0, 0.02349653657703422, 0.017079443922447042, 0.16494638649399593, 0.14115056931138625, 0.11106940192825875, 0.010489473131136438, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0015651176037633063, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00764267295316474, 0.06871034895382641, 0.0, 0.02077493900944314, 0.0028115822550663413, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0053628669779807745, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006437720576519247, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 10.423264634853556, "coverage": 0.999455781740724, "baseline_score": 89.60656949585795, "spot_peer_score": 17.743871491761418, "peer_archived_score": 10.423264634853556, "baseline_archived_score": 89.60656949585795, "spot_peer_archived_score": 17.743871491761418 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1709192452.314714, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 62, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1709192452.314714, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 62, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9978874072712227, 0.0021125927287773305 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 182, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In the current AI landscape, there's a significant divide between proprietary and open-source AI models. Proprietary AI, represented by LLM models like OpenAI's ChatGPT and Anthropic's Claude, boasts substantial market influence and development, supported by extensive resources and large model and training run sizes. On the other hand, open-source AI models like Llama, Falcon, and Mistral rely on more open source approaches as well as lower model sizes. At the moment, proprietary models dominate the LLM [leaderboards](https://huggingface.co/spaces/lmsys/chatbot-arena-leaderboard), though given the fast-moving nature of this industry, it is unclear whether the advantage of large, proprietary models will be sustained." }, { "id": 19870, "title": "Will an LLM by Apple be ranked in the top-5 on the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard on May 31, 2024?", "short_title": "Apple LLM 2024?", "url_title": "Apple LLM 2024?", "slug": "apple-llm-2024", "author_id": 119767, "author_username": "PhilippSchoenegger", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-11-11T15:41:24.154697Z", "published_at": "2023-12-01T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:49.005862Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-12-01T15:30:00Z", "comment_count": 20, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-02-29T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-02-29T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-06-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-06-01T04:00:00Z", "open_time": "2023-12-01T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 93, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2722, "type": "tournament", "name": "Global Pulse Tournament", "slug": "global-pulse", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/gpt-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2023-12-01T15:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-06-11T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-02-29T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-10T21:04:05.578713Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-23T04:20:28.408654Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2722, "type": "tournament", "name": "Global Pulse Tournament", "slug": "global-pulse", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/gpt-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2023-12-01T15:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-06-11T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-02-29T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-10T21:04:05.578713Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-23T04:20:28.408654Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 19870, "title": "Will an LLM by Apple be ranked in the top-5 on the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard on May 31, 2024?", "created_at": "2023-11-11T15:41:24.154697Z", "open_time": "2023-12-01T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-01-01T12:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-01-01T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-06-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-06-01T04:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-06-01T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-02-29T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-02-29T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "While major tech companies like OpenAI, Meta, and Google have actively released their Large Language Models (LLMs) to the public, Apple remains an exception in this trend. Despite its significant advancements and investments in AI, particularly with the internal development of the rumoured [Ajax-powered chatbot](https://www.theverge.com/2023/7/19/23800430/apple-gpt-ai-chatbot-generative-ai), Apple has not yet made any of its generative AI technologies publicly available. This contrasts with the faster approaches of its competitors, who are rapidly deploying and releasing their LLMs for widespread use and research, showcasing a divergent strategy in the competitive field of artificial intelligence. Given Apple’s large resources and track-record of strong product launches, any potential Apple LLM may be one of the strongest contenders.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the ranking of language model chatbots on the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard hosted on the Hugging Face website at [Chatbot Arena Leaderboard](https://huggingface.co/spaces/lmsys/chatbot-arena-leaderboard). If an LLM developed by Apple or a subsidiary of Apple is listed among the top-5 positions on May 31, 2024, the question will resolve as 'Yes'. If no such LLM by Apple or a subsidiary of Apple appears in the top-5, or if the leaderboard is not updated or accessible by the resolution date, the question will resolve as 'No'.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 19870, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1709206279.993777, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 93, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.046 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1709206279.993777, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 93, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.046 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.98, 0.02 ], "means": [ 0.04475374242425462 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.7704125726691748, 5.603547406899538, 3.4877418887506715, 1.432861979357387, 2.5694858461131895, 1.54267241849139, 0.0, 0.7049237270466437, 0.00784546800835153, 0.2326318799626671, 0.29750874988051046, 0.10475168878452759, 0.2785594639852932, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11610799221326185, 0.002071361526079036, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008697920756189014, 0.020260378170746603, 0.0004790762626597634, 0.01550759793289652, 0.0, 0.057193170883778566, 0.05401027835385818, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006737654326900534, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00962250396267543, 0.0050682898931823745, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.030830933517555805, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.026156677666015777, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3961933719488098, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003539921380459027, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006282599611561514, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 10.62922705556772, "coverage": 0.9994504696715327, "baseline_score": 85.888684343834, "spot_peer_score": 10.723778156320817, "peer_archived_score": 10.62922705556772, "baseline_archived_score": 85.888684343834, "spot_peer_archived_score": 10.723778156320817 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1709206280.043942, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 93, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1709206280.043942, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 93, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9987445006619605, 0.0012554993380394334 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 9, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 269, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "While major tech companies like OpenAI, Meta, and Google have actively released their Large Language Models (LLMs) to the public, Apple remains an exception in this trend. Despite its significant advancements and investments in AI, particularly with the internal development of the rumoured [Ajax-powered chatbot](https://www.theverge.com/2023/7/19/23800430/apple-gpt-ai-chatbot-generative-ai), Apple has not yet made any of its generative AI technologies publicly available. This contrasts with the faster approaches of its competitors, who are rapidly deploying and releasing their LLMs for widespread use and research, showcasing a divergent strategy in the competitive field of artificial intelligence. Given Apple’s large resources and track-record of strong product launches, any potential Apple LLM may be one of the strongest contenders." }, { "id": 19869, "title": "Will OpenAI be a public company on May 31, 2024?", "short_title": "OpenAI Public Company", "url_title": "OpenAI Public Company", "slug": "openai-public-company", "author_id": 119767, "author_username": "PhilippSchoenegger", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-11-11T15:40:34.094119Z", "published_at": "2023-12-01T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:55.545128Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-12-01T15:30:00Z", "comment_count": 14, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-02-29T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-02-29T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-06-01T16:04:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-06-01T16:04:00Z", "open_time": "2023-12-01T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 125, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2722, "type": "tournament", "name": "Global Pulse Tournament", "slug": "global-pulse", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/gpt-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2023-12-01T15:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-06-11T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-02-29T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-10T21:04:05.578713Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-23T04:20:28.408654Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2722, "type": "tournament", "name": "Global Pulse Tournament", "slug": "global-pulse", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/gpt-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2023-12-01T15:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-06-11T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-02-29T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-10T21:04:05.578713Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-23T04:20:28.408654Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 19869, "title": "Will OpenAI be a public company on May 31, 2024?", "created_at": "2023-11-11T15:40:34.094119Z", "open_time": "2023-12-01T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-01-01T12:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-01-01T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-06-01T16:04:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-06-01T16:04:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-06-01T16:04:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-02-29T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-02-29T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Founded in 2015 by notable figures like Elon Musk and Sam Altman, OpenAI began as a non-profit organization with a vision to advance AI technology for the benefit of humanity. 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This will be determined by official announcements from OpenAI, [stock exchange listings](https://stockanalysis.com/list/biggest-companies/), and [credible financial news](https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/company-list/country/united-states) reports. 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This change represents a significant shift in the company's structure and governance. Public companies, like Twitter was previously, are subject to strict disclosure requirements and shareholder scrutiny, with their shares traded on public stock exchanges. In contrast, a private company like Twitter under Musk's ownership is not obligated to disclose as much information and its shares are not publicly traded. This transition to a private structure grants Musk more control over the company's operations and strategic direction, allowing for potentially more rapid and significant changes in policies and practices. However, the long-term impact of this privatization on Twitter's operational and financial performance remains to be seen, as it introduces new dynamics in terms of management, debt obligations, and strategic vision implementation.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as 'Yes' if X (formerly Twitter) is publicly traded on any stock exchange on May 31, 2024. This will be determined by official announcements from X, [stock exchange listings](https://stockanalysis.com/list/biggest-companies/), and [credible financial news](https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/company-list/country/united-states) reports. 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This change represents a significant shift in the company's structure and governance. Public companies, like Twitter was previously, are subject to strict disclosure requirements and shareholder scrutiny, with their shares traded on public stock exchanges. In contrast, a private company like Twitter under Musk's ownership is not obligated to disclose as much information and its shares are not publicly traded. This transition to a private structure grants Musk more control over the company's operations and strategic direction, allowing for potentially more rapid and significant changes in policies and practices. However, the long-term impact of this privatization on Twitter's operational and financial performance remains to be seen, as it introduces new dynamics in terms of management, debt obligations, and strategic vision implementation." }, { "id": 19867, "title": "Will Elon Musk be chairman of X (formerly Twitter) on May 31, 2024?", "short_title": "Musk Chairman Of Twitter in 2024?", "url_title": "Musk Chairman Of Twitter in 2024?", "slug": "musk-chairman-of-twitter-in-2024", "author_id": 119767, "author_username": "PhilippSchoenegger", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-11-11T15:38:49.224212Z", "published_at": "2023-12-01T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:25.156945Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-12-01T15:30:00Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-02-29T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-02-29T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-05-31T16:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-05-31T16:01:00Z", "open_time": "2023-12-01T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 96, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2722, "type": "tournament", "name": "Global Pulse Tournament", "slug": "global-pulse", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/gpt-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2023-12-01T15:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-06-11T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-02-29T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-10T21:04:05.578713Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-23T04:20:28.408654Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2722, "type": "tournament", "name": "Global Pulse Tournament", "slug": "global-pulse", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/gpt-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2023-12-01T15:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-06-11T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-02-29T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-10T21:04:05.578713Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-23T04:20:28.408654Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 19867, "title": "Will Elon Musk be chairman of X (formerly Twitter) on May 31, 2024?", "created_at": "2023-11-11T15:38:49.224212Z", "open_time": "2023-12-01T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-01-01T12:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-01-01T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-05-31T16:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-05-31T16:01:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-05-31T16:01:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-02-29T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-02-29T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Elon Musk, the world’s richest person known for leading companies like SpaceX and Tesla, expanded his portfolio by acquiring Twitter for [$44 billion](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-63402338) in October 2022. Under his leadership, the company underwent significant changes, including a rebranding to \"X\" in July 2023. While Musk initially served as CEO, he transitioned to the roles of Chairman and Chief Technology Officer, passing the [CEO position to Linda Yaccarino in June 2023.](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1657050349608501249?lang=en)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as 'Yes' if Elon Musk is listed as the chairman of X (formerly Twitter) on May 31, 2024 according to the Twitter page on [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twitter). If the Wikipedia page has not been updated by the specified date or if there is a dispute regarding the accuracy of the information, confirmation will be sought from at least two credible and independent national or international news sources. 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While Musk initially served as CEO, he transitioned to the roles of Chairman and Chief Technology Officer, passing the [CEO position to Linda Yaccarino in June 2023.](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1657050349608501249?lang=en)" }, { "id": 19866, "title": "Will at least one nuclear whistle-blower go public between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024?", "short_title": "Nuclear Whistle-blowers?", "url_title": "Nuclear Whistle-blowers?", "slug": "nuclear-whistle-blowers", "author_id": 119767, "author_username": "PhilippSchoenegger", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-11-11T15:34:27.656262Z", "published_at": "2023-12-01T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:55.743630Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-12-01T15:30:00Z", "comment_count": 11, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-02-29T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-02-29T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-06-06T20:33:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-06-06T20:33:00Z", "open_time": "2023-12-01T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 72, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15868, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☣️", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2722, "type": "tournament", "name": "Global Pulse Tournament", "slug": "global-pulse", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/gpt-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2023-12-01T15:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-06-11T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-02-29T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-10T21:04:05.578713Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-23T04:20:28.408654Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2722, "type": "tournament", "name": "Global Pulse Tournament", "slug": "global-pulse", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/gpt-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2023-12-01T15:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-06-11T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-02-29T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-10T21:04:05.578713Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-23T04:20:28.408654Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3690, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☢️", "description": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 19866, "title": "Will at least one nuclear whistle-blower go public between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024?", "created_at": "2023-11-11T15:34:27.656262Z", "open_time": "2023-12-01T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-01-01T12:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-01-01T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-06-06T20:33:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-06-06T20:33:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-06-06T20:33:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-02-29T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-02-29T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Nuclear whistle-blowers in the United States have played a crucial role in highlighting safety concerns in the nuclear industry, often at significant personal risk. Beginning with prominent figures like [Karen Silkwood in 1974](https://www.britannica.com/biography/Karen-Silkwood), who raised alarms about health and safety issues at a nuclear fuel plant, the trend continued with the actions of the GE Three in 1976, who exposed safety problems at nuclear power plants. These individuals, along with others like Ronald Goldstein and Arnold Gundersen, faced harsh retaliation including dismissal and harassment. 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Beginning with prominent figures like [Karen Silkwood in 1974](https://www.britannica.com/biography/Karen-Silkwood), who raised alarms about health and safety issues at a nuclear fuel plant, the trend continued with the actions of the GE Three in 1976, who exposed safety problems at nuclear power plants. These individuals, along with others like Ronald Goldstein and Arnold Gundersen, faced harsh retaliation including dismissal and harassment. Their disclosures not only brought critical safety issues to public attention but also influenced significant policy and legislative changes, demonstrating the vital role of whistle-blowers in maintaining safety standards in the nuclear sector.\n\nNote that while the background is primarily concerned with US whistleblowers the question being asked is global in scope." }, { "id": 19865, "title": "Will the Georgia Power Co Vogtle nuclear power plant Unit 4 be operational in May, 2024?", "short_title": "Vogtle Unit 4 Operational", "url_title": "Vogtle Unit 4 Operational", "slug": "vogtle-unit-4-operational", "author_id": 119767, "author_username": "PhilippSchoenegger", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-11-11T15:33:35.050463Z", "published_at": "2023-12-01T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:56.743986Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-12-01T15:30:00Z", "comment_count": 12, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": 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4 be operational in May, 2024?", "created_at": "2023-11-11T15:33:35.050463Z", "open_time": "2023-12-01T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-01-01T12:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-01-01T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-06-01T07:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-06-01T07:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-06-01T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-02-29T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-02-29T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Building nuclear power plants in the United States is an [exceptionally challenging and complex endeavor.](https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=57280#:~:text=Most%20U.S.%20nuclear%20reactors%20were,reactor%20came%20online%20in%202016.) The process is fraught with stringent regulatory requirements, high financial costs, advanced technological needs, and often public and political scrutiny. These challenges contribute to the rarity of new nuclear projects; for instance, Vogtle Unit 3 was the first new nuclear unit constructed in the U.S. in more than 30 years.\r\nAgainst this backdrop, the progress of Georgia Power Co's Vogtle Unit 4 at Plant Vogtle near Waynesboro, Ga., is significant. [This unit has reached a crucial milestone with the commencement of fuel loading, an essential step towards its start up and commercial operation](https://www.georgiapower.com/company/news-center/2023-articles/vogtle-unit-4-starts-nuclear-fuel-load.html). The successful construction and operation of Vogtle Unit 4, following the recent commissioning of Unit 3, reflect Georgia Power's commitment to expanding nuclear energy. This commitment is underscored by the unit's potential to provide reliable, emissions-free energy to a significant number of homes and businesses. However, the project isn't without its challenges, including managing construction costs, scheduling, and ensuring adherence to safety and regulatory standards.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as 'Yes' if Georgia Power Co Vogtle nuclear power plant Unit 4 is listed as operational on the EIA's monthly update of the [Electric Generator Inventory](https://www.eia.gov/electricity/data/eia860m/) on June 1, 2024. If the May report is not published by June 7, 2024, the resolution will be based on the most recent report available. 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The process is fraught with stringent regulatory requirements, high financial costs, advanced technological needs, and often public and political scrutiny. These challenges contribute to the rarity of new nuclear projects; for instance, Vogtle Unit 3 was the first new nuclear unit constructed in the U.S. in more than 30 years.\r\nAgainst this backdrop, the progress of Georgia Power Co's Vogtle Unit 4 at Plant Vogtle near Waynesboro, Ga., is significant. [This unit has reached a crucial milestone with the commencement of fuel loading, an essential step towards its start up and commercial operation](https://www.georgiapower.com/company/news-center/2023-articles/vogtle-unit-4-starts-nuclear-fuel-load.html). The successful construction and operation of Vogtle Unit 4, following the recent commissioning of Unit 3, reflect Georgia Power's commitment to expanding nuclear energy. This commitment is underscored by the unit's potential to provide reliable, emissions-free energy to a significant number of homes and businesses. 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His first year was dominated by efforts to stabilize the UK's economy, grappling with high inflation and the repercussions of Truss’s policies. Sunak focused on [austerity measures and pragmatic policymaking](https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/comment/rishi-sunak-first-year-prime-minister), including the [Windsor Framework](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/the-windsor-framework) which improved UK-EU relations, particularly concerning the Northern Ireland protocol. Despite these efforts, challenges such as persistent inflation and political scandals have continued. In terms of internal party dynamics, Sunak's leadership has been a balancing act within the Conservative Party, addressing divergent views and unifying the party ahead of the next [general election](https://www.parliament.uk/about/how/elections-and-voting/general/), which is scheduled for no later than January 2025.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as 'Yes' if Rishi Sunak is listed as the Prime Minister of the UK on the [official government website](https://www.gov.uk/government/ministers/prime-minister) on May 31, 2024. In the event of a discrepancy or delay in the update of the government website, the question will additionally resolve based on real-time reports from at least two reputable and independent national news outlets. These sources must directly confirm Rishi Sunak's status as Prime Minister on the specified date. 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In terms of internal party dynamics, Sunak's leadership has been a balancing act within the Conservative Party, addressing divergent views and unifying the party ahead of the next [general election](https://www.parliament.uk/about/how/elections-and-voting/general/), which is scheduled for no later than January 2025." }, { "id": 19850, "title": "Will at least one of Egypt, Jordan, or Lebanon be at war with Israel on May 31, 2024?", "short_title": "Israel War With Neighbors", "url_title": "Israel War With Neighbors", "slug": "israel-war-with-neighbors", "author_id": 119767, "author_username": "PhilippSchoenegger", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-11-11T14:55:03.909052Z", "published_at": "2023-12-01T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:28.499718Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-12-01T15:30:00Z", "comment_count": 24, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-02-29T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-02-29T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-05-31T16:09:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-05-31T16:09:00Z", "open_time": "2023-12-01T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 135, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2722, "type": "tournament", "name": "Global Pulse Tournament", "slug": "global-pulse", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/gpt-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2023-12-01T15:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-06-11T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-02-29T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-10T21:04:05.578713Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-23T04:20:28.408654Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2722, "type": "tournament", "name": "Global Pulse Tournament", "slug": "global-pulse", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/gpt-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2023-12-01T15:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-06-11T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-02-29T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-10T21:04:05.578713Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-23T04:20:28.408654Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 19850, "title": "Will at least one of Egypt, Jordan, or Lebanon be at war with Israel on May 31, 2024?", "created_at": "2023-11-11T14:55:03.909052Z", "open_time": "2023-12-01T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-01-01T12:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-01-01T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-05-31T16:09:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-05-31T16:09:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-05-31T16:09:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-02-29T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-02-29T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "As of late 2023, the Gaza Strip has been at the centre of [intense conflict and humanitarian crisis](https://edition.cnn.com/2023/10/28/middleeast/israel-hamas-war-one-month-explainer-mime-intl/index.html#:~:text=The%20conflict%20has%20led%20to,nowhere%20to%20escape%20Israel's%20bombs.), primarily due to the escalating violence between Israel and Hamas. The situation deteriorated significantly following a major terrorist attack on Israel by Hamas militants on October 7, described as the largest terrorist attack in Israel's history. This attack led to over [1,400 fatalities and numerous hostages](https://www.npr.org/2023/11/05/1210641727/israel-war-hamas-latest-updates), prompting a severe military response from Israel. In retaliation, the Israeli military launched an extensive offensive involving air, sea, and ground operations against Gaza. This has included a total siege aimed at curtailing the capabilities of Hamas, the ruling authority in the Gaza Strip. The conflict has resulted in a dire humanitarian situation in Gaza, exacerbating the long-standing difficulties faced by the civilian population in the area.\nIn [previous wars](https://history.state.gov/milestones/1945-1952/arab-israeli-war) Israel engaged in warfare with up to five Arab nations. At the moment, however, it is unclear and unlikely that neighbouring Arab countries will join the fighting, having already shown [unwillingness to take refugees](https://apnews.com/article/palestinian-jordan-egypt-israel-refugee-502c06d004767d4b64848d878b66bd3d).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as 'Yes' if, on May 31, 2024, any of the nations Egypt, Jordan, or Lebanon is engaged in a state of war with Israel, characterized by any of the following being true:\n\n•\tOfficial statements by any of the involved nation's government or military acknowledging a state of war.\n\n•\tOfficial statements by the governments of at least two permanent members of the UN Security Council that acknowledge a state of war.\n\nThe primary source for resolution will be the official statements or press releases from the respective governments. If no official or credible report of a state of war is found by June 1, 2024, the question will resolve as 'No'.", "fine_print": "* Whether Hezbollah declares war on Israel does not impact the resolution of this question as only nation states are relevant.\n* Note that this question relies on official government statements, and it may be possible for there to be a substantial number of conflict deaths between Israel and one or more of these countries without either side acknowledging a state of war. In such a situation the question would still resolve as **No**.\n* For the purposes of this question, an official statement will be one made in an official capacity on behalf of the government or a government agency, including in speeches or in response to questions from reporters.\n* A statement referencing an \"act of war\" will generally not be considered to count as a \"state of war\", the statement must more broadly refer to a state of warfare between the militaries of the two nations.\n* In the case of Lebanon, which is [technically still at war with Israel](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/war-decades-lebanon-israel-edge-towards-rare-deal-2022-10-11/), the statements must be in reference to an escalation, continuation, or resumption of the war with Israel and related to combat between the overtly flagged members of each nation's military.", "post_id": 19850, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1709168493.186296, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 135, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.015 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.027 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1709168493.186296, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 135, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.015 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.027 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.985, 0.015 ], "means": [ 0.042211515223732086 ], "histogram": [ [ 3.9784860150792456, 7.779172626417251, 5.242336131384697, 1.4379363810688672, 1.146870859537495, 0.06211891530442049, 0.0, 0.1378945567713785, 0.21883328379980627, 0.5243944472062455, 0.055254238692651836, 0.02217698226906644, 0.0, 0.003941525261707368, 0.0, 0.09228658208689469, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005429947567341769, 0.0016241062477104964, 0.0027493797367378, 0.0, 0.007366989724210423, 0.0010883216769238323, 0.0012065737433445013, 0.0004910571515757398, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005171820135506307, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003064109948486093, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0002873388365331587, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0010458927547488, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.4448295978029883e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0003792584527754642, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0021512107333080182, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006834988728375071, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0008793088615534723 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 13.475773220192316, "coverage": 0.9990192946011982, "baseline_score": 93.41707339090969, "spot_peer_score": 16.63503337920815, "peer_archived_score": 13.475773220192316, "baseline_archived_score": 93.41707339090969, "spot_peer_archived_score": 16.63503337920815 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1709192782.223845, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 135, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1709192782.223845, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 135, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9963666350223961, 0.0036333649776039653 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 9, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 345, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "As of late 2023, the Gaza Strip has been at the centre of [intense conflict and humanitarian crisis](https://edition.cnn.com/2023/10/28/middleeast/israel-hamas-war-one-month-explainer-mime-intl/index.html#:~:text=The%20conflict%20has%20led%20to,nowhere%20to%20escape%20Israel's%20bombs.), primarily due to the escalating violence between Israel and Hamas. The situation deteriorated significantly following a major terrorist attack on Israel by Hamas militants on October 7, described as the largest terrorist attack in Israel's history. This attack led to over [1,400 fatalities and numerous hostages](https://www.npr.org/2023/11/05/1210641727/israel-war-hamas-latest-updates), prompting a severe military response from Israel. In retaliation, the Israeli military launched an extensive offensive involving air, sea, and ground operations against Gaza. This has included a total siege aimed at curtailing the capabilities of Hamas, the ruling authority in the Gaza Strip. The conflict has resulted in a dire humanitarian situation in Gaza, exacerbating the long-standing difficulties faced by the civilian population in the area.\nIn [previous wars](https://history.state.gov/milestones/1945-1952/arab-israeli-war) Israel engaged in warfare with up to five Arab nations. At the moment, however, it is unclear and unlikely that neighbouring Arab countries will join the fighting, having already shown [unwillingness to take refugees](https://apnews.com/article/palestinian-jordan-egypt-israel-refugee-502c06d004767d4b64848d878b66bd3d)." }, { "id": 19849, "title": "Will there be United Nations peacekeeping troops in Gaza on May 31, 2024?", "short_title": "UN Troops In Gaza", "url_title": "UN Troops In Gaza", "slug": "un-troops-in-gaza", "author_id": 119767, "author_username": "PhilippSchoenegger", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-11-11T14:54:04.662436Z", "published_at": "2023-12-01T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:57.768822Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-12-01T15:30:00Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-02-29T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-02-29T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-05-31T15:57:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": 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"range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "As of late 2023, the Gaza Strip has been at the centre of [intense conflict and humanitarian crisis](https://edition.cnn.com/2023/10/28/middleeast/israel-hamas-war-one-month-explainer-mime-intl/index.html#:~:text=The%20conflict%20has%20led%20to,nowhere%20to%20escape%20Israel's%20bombs.) due to the escalating violence between Israel and Hamas. The situation deteriorated significantly following a major terrorist attack on Israel by Hamas militants on October 7, described as the largest terrorist attack in Israel's history. This attack led to [1,200 fatalities and numerous hostages](https://www.npr.org/2023/11/05/1210641727/israel-war-hamas-latest-updates) (Israel initially estimated 1,400 fatalities, later [revised down to around 1,200](https://thehill.com/policy/international/4304838-israeli-death-toll-estimate-down-to-about-1200/)) prompting a severe military response from Israel. In retaliation, the Israeli military launched an extensive offensive involving air, sea, and ground operations against Gaza. This has included a total siege aimed at curtailing the capabilities of Hamas, the ruling authority in the Gaza Strip. The conflict has resulted in a dire humanitarian situation in Gaza, exacerbating the long-standing difficulties faced by the civilian population in the area.\n\nIn light of the crisis, there have been discussions about international interventions to stabilize the situation. One of the [proposed solutions](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-10-31/us-and-israel-weigh-peacekeepers-for-the-gaza-strip-after-hamas?leadSource=reddit_wall) is the deployment of a multinational peacekeeping force in Gaza, potentially including troops from the United States, the United Kingdom, and France. Another option under consideration is placing Gaza under United Nations oversight.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as 'Yes' if, on May 31, 2024, there is an active United Nations-led peacekeeping operation physically present in the Gaza Strip. For the purposes of this question:\n\n•\tAn 'operation' is defined as any UN-led mission that includes peacekeeping troops, advisors, or observers officially deployed in a capacity recognized by the UN Security Council.\n\n•\tThe presence must be confirmed through an official announcement or mission update on the [UN Peacekeeping: Where We Operate]( https://peacekeeping.un.org/en/where-we-operate) page.\n\n•\tIf the primary source is unavailable or not updated, resolution will be based on official statements from the United Nations or reports by at least two reputable international news organizations.\n\n•\tThe presence of any form of a UN delegation or individual personnel engaged in diplomatic discussions, without an accompanying peacekeeping mandate, does not fulfill the resolution criteria. Neither does the presence of members of the UN Palestine Refugee Agency (UNRWA).", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 19849, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1709171099.467809, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 100, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1709171099.467809, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 100, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.98, 0.02 ], "means": [ 0.04660607224328855 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.7051270165766976, 6.333047797486567, 2.3159939831291814, 1.6080301554720153, 1.105290471105583, 1.385386186361861, 0.5050608987103209, 0.6973904429989002, 0.7201240127344123, 0.027374873087660952, 0.4927361503118578, 0.3978476135895501, 0.02158868385811084, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01045508963382006, 0.006737946999085467, 0.01831563888873418, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9352119335532367, 0.0081981432990675, 0.0, 0.006090527921295049, 0.0009118819655545162, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0021830841510801758, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005282230500139205, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0007681136336700427, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0012515466035336708, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0006398679769312256, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.025338135663538038, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0031594436946416338, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1628953631576628, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0014504254020369168, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0003354626279025118 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 15.85746771100338, "coverage": 0.9990231601648715, "baseline_score": 80.16299732820731, "spot_peer_score": 11.489967426879641, "peer_archived_score": 15.85746771100338, "baseline_archived_score": 80.16299732820731, "spot_peer_archived_score": 11.489967426879641 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1709192551.447834, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 100, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1709192551.447834, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 100, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9985557935249809, 0.001444206475019089 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 9, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 287, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "As of late 2023, the Gaza Strip has been at the centre of [intense conflict and humanitarian crisis](https://edition.cnn.com/2023/10/28/middleeast/israel-hamas-war-one-month-explainer-mime-intl/index.html#:~:text=The%20conflict%20has%20led%20to,nowhere%20to%20escape%20Israel's%20bombs.) due to the escalating violence between Israel and Hamas. The situation deteriorated significantly following a major terrorist attack on Israel by Hamas militants on October 7, described as the largest terrorist attack in Israel's history. This attack led to [1,200 fatalities and numerous hostages](https://www.npr.org/2023/11/05/1210641727/israel-war-hamas-latest-updates) (Israel initially estimated 1,400 fatalities, later [revised down to around 1,200](https://thehill.com/policy/international/4304838-israeli-death-toll-estimate-down-to-about-1200/)) prompting a severe military response from Israel. In retaliation, the Israeli military launched an extensive offensive involving air, sea, and ground operations against Gaza. This has included a total siege aimed at curtailing the capabilities of Hamas, the ruling authority in the Gaza Strip. The conflict has resulted in a dire humanitarian situation in Gaza, exacerbating the long-standing difficulties faced by the civilian population in the area.\n\nIn light of the crisis, there have been discussions about international interventions to stabilize the situation. One of the [proposed solutions](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-10-31/us-and-israel-weigh-peacekeepers-for-the-gaza-strip-after-hamas?leadSource=reddit_wall) is the deployment of a multinational peacekeeping force in Gaza, potentially including troops from the United States, the United Kingdom, and France. Another option under consideration is placing Gaza under United Nations oversight." }, { "id": 19846, "title": "Will Dutch supermarket Albert Heijn still sell crompouces by April 30, 2024?", "short_title": "Crompouce sales April 2024", "url_title": "Crompouce sales April 2024", "slug": "crompouce-sales-april-2024", "author_id": 117905, "author_username": "oumeen", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-11-11T14:05:22.824347Z", "published_at": "2023-11-25T21:24:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:25.514743Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-11-25T21:24:00Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-04-30T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-04-30T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-04-30T20:14:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-04-30T20:14:00Z", "open_time": "2023-11-25T21:24:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 24, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 19846, "title": "Will Dutch supermarket Albert Heijn still sell crompouces by April 30, 2024?", "created_at": "2023-11-11T14:05:22.824347Z", "open_time": "2023-11-25T21:24:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-11-28T21:24:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-11-28T21:24:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-04-30T20:14:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-04-30T20:14:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-04-30T20:14:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-04-30T10:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-04-30T10:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Late October 2023, [a new pastry called the _crompouce_](https://nltimes.nl/2023/10/28/tiktok-craze-bakery-crompouce-becomes-new-pastry-sensation) [went viral in The Netherlands](https://www.iamexpat.nl/lifestyle/lifestyle-news/crompouce-croissant-tompouce-hybrid-takes-over-dutch-tiktok). A crompouce is a hybrid between a croissant and the traditional Dutch pastry [tompouce](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tompouce). News outlets attribute the hype to TikTok. Many local bakeries jumped in on the hype and started selling crompouces, [as did supermarket chain Albert Heijn](https://www.ah.nl/producten/product/wi567589/ah-crompouce). On the other hand, Hema (one of the most iconic stores that sell the traditional tompouce) started a humorous campaign that rejects the crompouce and advertises their classic tompouce. In [an interview published by newspaper AD on November 5th](https://www.ad.nl/binnenland/crompouce-leidt-tot-weerstand-in-bakkerswereld-je-kunt-overal-wel-room-tussen-stoppen~adee2d7a/), one baker said “I predict the hype is over in a few weeks”.\n\nIs the crompouce a fad, or is it here to stay?", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positive if, on April 30, 2024, crompouces are available for purchase on ah.nl, the website of supermarket Albert Heijn.", "fine_print": "As of November 11, 2023, crompouces are available for sale [at this url](https://www.ah.nl/producten/product/wi567589/ah-crompouce), but the product for sale does not have to be exactly this item as long as it’s still a crompouce. If crompouces are temporarily out of stock but the website lists a date at which they will be available again, the question still resolves positive.", "post_id": 19846, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1714458267.442776, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1714458267.442776, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9742824542197015 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.030660934602948456, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.020262579152652255, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04213280279121279, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.055079400708367705, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08633762966036206, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10505952607063467, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12611610086941633, 0.0, 0.4504289659868941, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.399675472730219 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 20.21623195472091, "coverage": 0.9999159707744778, "baseline_score": 12.324208736490657, "spot_peer_score": 50.44588999748506, "peer_archived_score": 20.21623195472091, "baseline_archived_score": 12.324208736490657, "spot_peer_archived_score": 50.44588999748506 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1714463541.032536, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1714463541.032536, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.008068453102919482, 0.9919315468970805 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 91, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Late October 2023, [a new pastry called the _crompouce_](https://nltimes.nl/2023/10/28/tiktok-craze-bakery-crompouce-becomes-new-pastry-sensation) [went viral in The Netherlands](https://www.iamexpat.nl/lifestyle/lifestyle-news/crompouce-croissant-tompouce-hybrid-takes-over-dutch-tiktok). A crompouce is a hybrid between a croissant and the traditional Dutch pastry [tompouce](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tompouce). News outlets attribute the hype to TikTok. Many local bakeries jumped in on the hype and started selling crompouces, [as did supermarket chain Albert Heijn](https://www.ah.nl/producten/product/wi567589/ah-crompouce). On the other hand, Hema (one of the most iconic stores that sell the traditional tompouce) started a humorous campaign that rejects the crompouce and advertises their classic tompouce. In [an interview published by newspaper AD on November 5th](https://www.ad.nl/binnenland/crompouce-leidt-tot-weerstand-in-bakkerswereld-je-kunt-overal-wel-room-tussen-stoppen~adee2d7a/), one baker said “I predict the hype is over in a few weeks”.\n\nIs the crompouce a fad, or is it here to stay?" }, { "id": 19824, "title": "Will the International Criminal Court bring charges against Benjamin Netanyahu before 2026?", "short_title": "Netanyahu charged by ICC?", "url_title": "Netanyahu charged by ICC?", "slug": "netanyahu-charged-by-icc", "author_id": 122963, "author_username": "Doryphore", "coauthors": [ { "id": 113121, "username": "AlyssaStevens" }, { "id": 117502, "username": "RyanBeck" } ], "created_at": "2023-11-09T09:05:58.563734Z", "published_at": "2023-11-17T18:46:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:49.952368Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-11-17T18:46:00Z", "comment_count": 34, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-21T10:45:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-30T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-21T10:45:00Z", "open_time": "2023-11-17T18:46:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 156, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15879, "name": "Gaza Conflict", "slug": "israel-gaza", "emoji": "🇮🇱🇵🇸", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2673, "type": "question_series", "name": "Israel-Gaza Conflict", "slug": "israel-gaza", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-10-09T16:54:46Z", "close_date": "2024-10-09T16:54:46Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-11T11:23:20.281816Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2673, "type": "question_series", "name": "Israel-Gaza Conflict", "slug": "israel-gaza", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-10-09T16:54:46Z", "close_date": "2024-10-09T16:54:46Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-11T11:23:20.281816Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 19824, "title": "Will the International Criminal Court bring charges against Benjamin Netanyahu before 2026?", "created_at": "2023-11-09T09:05:58.563734Z", "open_time": "2023-11-17T18:46:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-11-20T18:46:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-11-20T18:46:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-21T10:45:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-11-21T17:58:52.147115Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-30T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-21T10:45:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On October 7th, 2023, Palestinians militants launched rockets at Israel and 3,000 militants breached the Gaza-Israel border. More than 1,000 Israelis were killed in Kibbutzims, military bases, and at a [music festival](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Re%27im_music_festival_massacre), and over 200 hostages were abducted and taken into the Gaza Strip.\n\nThe next day on October 8th, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared war. Israel responded by bombing Gaza dropping 6,000 bombs in the first 6 days, and then a ground invasion of the Gaza Strip in late October. \n\nThe United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights has [accused both sides of war crimes](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/un-rights-chief-says-war-crimes-committed-both-sides-israel-hamas-conflict-2023-11-08/#:~:text=Israel%20has%20bombarded%20Gaza%20unrelentingly,including%20many%20women%20and%20children.).\n\n>CAIRO, Nov 8 (Reuters) - The United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights said on Wednesday war crimes had been committed by both Israel and Hamas in the conflict that erupted just over a month ago.\n\n>\"The atrocities perpetrated by Palestinian armed groups on 7 October were heinous, they were war crimes - as is the continued holding of hostages,\" Volker Turk said at the Rafah crossing in Egypt on the border with Gaza.\n\n>\"The collective punishment by Israel of Palestinian civilians is also a war crime, as is unlawful forcible evacuation of civilians,\" he added.\n\nThe [International Criminal Court](https://www.icc-cpi.int/), headquartered in The Hague, Netherlands, is an independent judicial institution empowered to prosecute individuals for international crimes, such as genocide, crimes against humanity, war crimes, and the crime of aggression. It is distinct from the United Nations and does not possess universal jurisdiction, relying instead on the ratification of the [Rome Statute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rome_Statute) by individual states, which confers the Court's jurisdiction. Israel is not a member state of the ICC, but the ICC's top prosecutor has [claimed jurisdiction](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/hamas-attack-would-fall-under-jurisdiction-war-crimes-court-prosecutor-2023-10-12/#:~:text=THE%20HAGUE%2C%20Netherlands%2C%20Oct%2012,prosecutor%20told%20Reuters%20on%20Thursday.) over any war crimes carrier out in the Gaza conflict, [writing](https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/nov/10/law-israel-hamas-international-criminal-court-icc)\n\n> My office has ongoing jurisdiction in relation to any alleged crimes committed on the territory of the State of Palestine by any party. This includes jurisdiction over current events in Gaza and in the West Bank.\n\n> Israel has clear obligations in relation to its war with Hamas: not just moral obligations, but legal obligations that it has to comply with the laws of armed conflict. These laws are clearly outlined in the Rome statute and the Geneva conventions.\n\nOn November 16, 2023, South Africa [referred Israel to the ICC](https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/south-africa-refers-israel-icc-gaza-attacks-pressure-104937581). South African President Cyril Ramaphosa said:\n\n> “As South Africa we have accordingly, together with many other countries across the world, referred this whole Israeli government action to the International Criminal Court,\" Ramaphosa said Wednesday during a state visit to Qatar.\n\n> “We have put through a referral because we believe that war crimes are being committed there. And of course we do not condone the actions that were taken by Hamas earlier, but similarly we condemn the actions that are currently underway and believe that they warrant an investigation by the ICC,” he added.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve Yes if, before January 1, 2026, the International Criminal Court brings charges against Benjamin Netanyahu.\n\nPer the [Rome Statute](https://www.icc-cpi.int/sites/default/files/RS-Eng.pdf)—the founding statute of the ICC—the court may bring charges within the following [categories](https://www.icc-cpi.int/about/how-the-court-works):\n\n- Genocide\n- Crimes against humanity\n- War crimes\n- Crimes of aggression\n- Offences against the administration of justice\n\nThe ICC announcing either an indictment, summons, or an arrest warrant is sufficient for a Yes resolution.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 19824, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1732211707.080131, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 159, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "centers": [ 0.925 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1732211707.080131, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 159, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "centers": [ 0.925 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.07499999999999996, 0.925 ], "means": [ 0.8790800867513443 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.07774449712040701, 4.7074980302278084e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00017434766143881544, 0.0001709829218351658, 0.001382952608793717, 0.0009245724854395341, 0.0006031360346703764, 0.0010245120766277126, 0.0045237333575877765, 0.0, 3.125121709754941e-05, 0.0, 0.3560581398772253, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.048905903378893376, 0.0398179915755084, 0.0, 0.0019998096118204658, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0005473069838600212, 0.0, 0.008254631364341123, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02041016279740659, 0.0, 0.08126699791406711, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.046924109925788736, 0.0, 0.0, 0.051515659378682604, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4948126484673902, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19107885880585393, 0.0, 0.20926388919560143, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002016491869821532, 0.08538125934943559, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00012292096901260073, 0.0, 0.0059390538704059016, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7700327030539186, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6447953124084245, 0.44056640740189007, 0.0, 0.0014637440870943924, 0.0, 1.2726930065125412, 0.1664822825180838, 0.12569883141277888, 0.5906839127083751, 0.0, 2.2130332885518333, 0.7172300208909846, 0.08195718355333372, 0.7473899140559741, 0.9944204519497392, 1.0768764139002995, 0.08968235991409243, 0.3431685529563518, 0.0932617782899404, 0.06653512493152981, 1.275857844877687, 0.1401694256782314, 0.2704691448689393, 0.04177157975503102, 9.827166722410848 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -32.0522359552972, "peer_score": 26.40402066558427, "coverage": 0.4776481464202508, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9999960312719135, "spot_peer_score": 64.74230979034657, "baseline_archived_score": -32.0522359552972, "peer_archived_score": 26.40402066558427, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 64.74230979034657 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289080.241858, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 148, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289080.241858, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 148, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.18609589319969433, 0.8139041068003057 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 16, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 668, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On October 7th, 2023, Palestinians militants launched rockets at Israel and 3,000 militants breached the Gaza-Israel border. More than 1,000 Israelis were killed in Kibbutzims, military bases, and at a [music festival](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Re%27im_music_festival_massacre), and over 200 hostages were abducted and taken into the Gaza Strip.\n\nThe next day on October 8th, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared war. Israel responded by bombing Gaza dropping 6,000 bombs in the first 6 days, and then a ground invasion of the Gaza Strip in late October. \n\nThe United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights has [accused both sides of war crimes](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/un-rights-chief-says-war-crimes-committed-both-sides-israel-hamas-conflict-2023-11-08/#:~:text=Israel%20has%20bombarded%20Gaza%20unrelentingly,including%20many%20women%20and%20children.).\n\n>CAIRO, Nov 8 (Reuters) - The United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights said on Wednesday war crimes had been committed by both Israel and Hamas in the conflict that erupted just over a month ago.\n\n>\"The atrocities perpetrated by Palestinian armed groups on 7 October were heinous, they were war crimes - as is the continued holding of hostages,\" Volker Turk said at the Rafah crossing in Egypt on the border with Gaza.\n\n>\"The collective punishment by Israel of Palestinian civilians is also a war crime, as is unlawful forcible evacuation of civilians,\" he added.\n\nThe [International Criminal Court](https://www.icc-cpi.int/), headquartered in The Hague, Netherlands, is an independent judicial institution empowered to prosecute individuals for international crimes, such as genocide, crimes against humanity, war crimes, and the crime of aggression. It is distinct from the United Nations and does not possess universal jurisdiction, relying instead on the ratification of the [Rome Statute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rome_Statute) by individual states, which confers the Court's jurisdiction. Israel is not a member state of the ICC, but the ICC's top prosecutor has [claimed jurisdiction](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/hamas-attack-would-fall-under-jurisdiction-war-crimes-court-prosecutor-2023-10-12/#:~:text=THE%20HAGUE%2C%20Netherlands%2C%20Oct%2012,prosecutor%20told%20Reuters%20on%20Thursday.) over any war crimes carrier out in the Gaza conflict, [writing](https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/nov/10/law-israel-hamas-international-criminal-court-icc)\n\n> My office has ongoing jurisdiction in relation to any alleged crimes committed on the territory of the State of Palestine by any party. This includes jurisdiction over current events in Gaza and in the West Bank.\n\n> Israel has clear obligations in relation to its war with Hamas: not just moral obligations, but legal obligations that it has to comply with the laws of armed conflict. These laws are clearly outlined in the Rome statute and the Geneva conventions.\n\nOn November 16, 2023, South Africa [referred Israel to the ICC](https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/south-africa-refers-israel-icc-gaza-attacks-pressure-104937581). South African President Cyril Ramaphosa said:\n\n> “As South Africa we have accordingly, together with many other countries across the world, referred this whole Israeli government action to the International Criminal Court,\" Ramaphosa said Wednesday during a state visit to Qatar.\n\n> “We have put through a referral because we believe that war crimes are being committed there. And of course we do not condone the actions that were taken by Hamas earlier, but similarly we condemn the actions that are currently underway and believe that they warrant an investigation by the ICC,” he added." }, { "id": 19810, "title": "Will western sources conclude, before 2025, that Israel has used white phosphorus improperly?", "short_title": "Israel White Phosphorus Improper Use by 2025?", "url_title": "Israel White Phosphorus Improper Use by 2025?", "slug": "israel-white-phosphorus-improper-use-by-2025", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [ { "id": 111743, "username": "NathanpmYoung" } ], "created_at": "2023-11-06T15:51:27.025828Z", "published_at": "2023-11-07T15:56:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:21.021656Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-11-07T15:56:00Z", "comment_count": 19, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-10T00:35:00Z", "open_time": "2023-11-07T15:56:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 121, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15879, "name": "Gaza Conflict", "slug": "israel-gaza", "emoji": "🇮🇱🇵🇸", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2673, "type": "question_series", "name": "Israel-Gaza Conflict", "slug": "israel-gaza", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-10-09T16:54:46Z", "close_date": "2024-10-09T16:54:46Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-11T11:23:20.281816Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2673, "type": "question_series", "name": "Israel-Gaza Conflict", "slug": "israel-gaza", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-10-09T16:54:46Z", "close_date": "2024-10-09T16:54:46Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-11T11:23:20.281816Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 19810, "title": "Will western sources conclude, before 2025, that Israel has used white phosphorus improperly?", "created_at": "2023-11-06T15:51:27.025828Z", "open_time": "2023-11-07T15:56:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-11-08T12:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-11-08T12:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-10T00:35:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-10T00:43:03.459472Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "There have been [several](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/human-rights-watch-says-israel-used-white-phosphorous-gaza-lebanon-2023-10-12/) [accusations](https://apnews.com/article/israel-gaza-lebanon-white-phosphorus-war-5aebf0cc8d587951a718cefe329bc8b3) of Israel using white phosphorus following the [October 7 attack](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Hamas_attack_on_Israel) on Israel by Hamas. According to [CBS News](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/what-is-white-phosphorus-russia-ukraine/):\n\n>Because of its incendiary effects, the use of phosphorus in war is supposed to be tightly regulated under international law — but it is not banned. Phosphorus is not classed as a chemical weapon under the Chemical Weapons Convention.\n>\n>When used as a weapon, it can cause fire to rain down on targets, inflicting indiscriminate damage. It is illegal, therefore, for phosphorus to be used near civilians, because international law requires that combatants distinguish between civilian and military elements.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2025, any three of the following government or media sources conclude that Israel has used white phosphorus in an illegal or improper manner any time after October 7, 2023:\n\n* The United Kingdom\n* The United States\n* France\n* Germany\n* Japan\n* South Korea\n* Israel\n* The United Nations\n* The Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW)\n* Reports published by one of the following sources and based on independent investigations conducted by the same source or commissioned by the same source each also count as one qualifying report\n * BBC\n * The Guardian\n * AP\n * Reuters\n\nThe use of white phosphorus must be explicitly stated by these sources, including an assertion that the use was improper or illegal, and the reported use must occur within the stated timeframe. Negative statements do not in themselves resolve this question as **No**. The question will resolve as **No** if no such use is reported by the deadline. Any use reported after the deadline will not count towards the resolution of this question.", "fine_print": "* Statements must be conclusive. For example a statement must use language such as \"we have concluded that Israel used white phosphorus improperly\" or \"we have proof that Israel used white phosphorus in an illegal manner\". Statements such as \"we think it is likely that Israel used white phosphorus improperly\" or \"Israel may have used white phosphorus improperly\" or any other statements expressing uncertainty will **not** qualify.\n* Concluding that white phosphorus was used in an illegal or improper manner will be taken as any statement generally condemning the use, which may or may not include assertions that the use violated international law. A statement such as \"Israel's use of white phosphorus was reckless and harmful\" would be considered to meet this requirement.\n* Opinion pieces published by the listed media sources do not count, even if they reference or endorse a qualifying independent investigation.\n* Leaks, anonymous statements, and other non-public statements will not qualify.\n* Metaculus may make a determination in the event there is ambiguity about whether a statement satisfies these criteria.", "post_id": 19810, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735671478.706901, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 119, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735671478.706901, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 119, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.04016352934547359 ], "histogram": [ [ 10.8882146913517, 4.93873413161675, 0.03714452074368754, 0.9839842112176653, 0.044647035774518465, 0.854191620063427, 0.21699508076402127, 0.08352892153066463, 0.00013520585154472867, 0.10674960836229877, 0.3565142534798275, 0.0, 0.011938683744747294, 0.07411863812031651, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005717924048220845, 0.006233855858162013, 0.020066327556907168, 0.8835591631660477, 0.0, 0.04808888351073279, 0.0, 0.051228555313319275, 0.004162868954993791, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001788932117281614, 0.023114765047599694, 0.0, 0.030424300615435034, 0.0, 0.005237778268384932, 0.0008798767048542106, 0.0003095827948788816, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00043228111401378617, 0.0, 0.01390561541236602, 0.2288402807874698, 0.0, 0.0033042039668223586, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0005845837517301532, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0029857554535104988, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11248788487522013, 0.004376584997741002, 0.24804800361957657, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0030372787462094823, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0016018818900152732, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001992637073746351, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.021960102386289263 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 87.7376521440547, "peer_score": 51.726709806315505, "coverage": 0.9999839277591419, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9999839277591419, "spot_peer_score": 68.6231897288932, "spot_baseline_score": 67.80719051126377, "baseline_archived_score": 87.7376521440547, "peer_archived_score": 51.726709806315505, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 68.6231897288932, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 67.80719051126377 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288026.933683, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 113, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288026.933683, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 113, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9994467212467225, 0.0005532787532775014 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 351, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "There have been [several](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/human-rights-watch-says-israel-used-white-phosphorous-gaza-lebanon-2023-10-12/) [accusations](https://apnews.com/article/israel-gaza-lebanon-white-phosphorus-war-5aebf0cc8d587951a718cefe329bc8b3) of Israel using white phosphorus following the [October 7 attack](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Hamas_attack_on_Israel) on Israel by Hamas. According to [CBS News](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/what-is-white-phosphorus-russia-ukraine/):\n\n>Because of its incendiary effects, the use of phosphorus in war is supposed to be tightly regulated under international law — but it is not banned. Phosphorus is not classed as a chemical weapon under the Chemical Weapons Convention.\n>\n>When used as a weapon, it can cause fire to rain down on targets, inflicting indiscriminate damage. It is illegal, therefore, for phosphorus to be used near civilians, because international law requires that combatants distinguish between civilian and military elements." }, { "id": 19776, "title": "Will Russell Rickford cease to be a faculty member of Cornell before 2030?", "short_title": "Russell Rickford out of Cornell before 2030", "url_title": "Russell Rickford out of Cornell before 2030", "slug": "russell-rickford-out-of-cornell-before-2030", "author_id": 118874, "author_username": "stanulamstan", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-11-03T02:00:01.588525Z", "published_at": "2023-11-11T00:49:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-16T05:28:45.787890Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-11-11T00:49:00Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-11-11T00:49:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 12, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 19776, "title": "Will Russell Rickford cease to be a faculty member of Cornell before 2030?", "created_at": "2023-11-03T02:00:01.588525Z", "open_time": "2023-11-11T00:49:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-11-14T00:49:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-11-14T00:49:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-12-31T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Cornell professor [Russell Rickford](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russell_J._Rickford) referred to the October 7 attacks on Israel as [exhilirating](https://www.nationalreview.com/news/cornell-professor-takes-leave-of-absence-after-calling-hamas-attacks-exhilarating-and-energizing/). Subsequently, nearly 5000 members of the Cornell University community [demanded](https://archive.ph/1jK3T) that Rickford be fired. A [petition](https://www.change.org/p/demand-cornell-university-to-terminate-associate-professor-russell-for-hate-speech) to fire him gathered thousands of signatures. Rickford has taken a leave of absence. Cornell is [committed](https://theuniversityfaculty.cornell.edu/the-new-faculty-handbook/statement-on-academic-freedom-and-freedom-of-speech-and-expression/) to protecting academic freedom. The [Faculty Statement on Academic Freedom and Responsibility](https://theuniversityfaculty.cornell.edu/the-new-faculty-handbook/statement-on-academic-freedom-and-freedom-of-speech-and-expression/) states:\n\n>Academic Freedom for the Faculty means: Freedom of expression in the classroom on matters relevant to the subject and the purpose of the course and of choice of methods in classroom teaching; from direction and restraint in scholarship, research, and creative expression and in the discussion and publication of the results thereof; to speak and write as a citizen without institutional censorship or discipline. . . \n\n>Academic freedom is valued very highly at Cornell, and the University Faculty defends it tenaciously; nevertheless, the same University Faculty is disinclined to see the concept abused. Academic freedom does not imply immunity from prosecution for illegal acts of wrongdoing, nor does it provide license for faculty members to do whatever they choose.\n\nIn recent years, there has been significant controversy around free speech and academic freedom in the Ivy League, especially around the free speech of centrist and right-leaning professors. [Amy Wax](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amy_Wax) has [come](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/13/us/upenn-law-professor-racism-freedom-speech.html) [under fire](https://quillette.com/2023/03/06/amy-wax-and-academic-freedom/) for remarks that some people have perceived as racist, and the dean of Penn law has started a [faculty review process](https://archive.is/www.inquirer.com/news/amy-wax-penn-law-sanctions-20220118.html) that could lead to sanctions against her. [Joshua Katz](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joshua_Katz_(classicist)) was [fired](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/23/us/princeton-fires-joshua-katz.html) by Princeton for a consensual relationship he had with a student in the mid-2000s, though many [suspect](https://quillette.com/2022/05/26/the-firing-of-joshua-t-katz/) the true cause is an [article](https://quillette.com/2020/07/08/a-declaration-of-independence-by-a-princeton-professor/) he wrote in Quillette.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if Cornell officially announces before January 1st, 2030, (such as through its website, its communication team, or its leadership) that Russell Rickford is no longer a faculty member at Cornell or if credible sources report that Rickford is no longer a faculty member at Cornell.\n\nImportant to note: a leave of absence, whether paid or unpaid, would not trigger a positive resolution of the question.", "fine_print": "If Cornell ceases to exist on or before 1 January 2030, then the question will resolve ambiguously.", "post_id": 19776, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761755727.681166, "end_time": 1768544914.505, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.42 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761755727.681166, "end_time": 1768544914.505, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.42 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5800000000000001, 0.42 ], "means": [ 0.4367917030276367 ], "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287529.586453, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287529.586453, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.5288631559696336, 0.4711368440303664 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 50, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Cornell professor [Russell Rickford](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russell_J._Rickford) referred to the October 7 attacks on Israel as [exhilirating](https://www.nationalreview.com/news/cornell-professor-takes-leave-of-absence-after-calling-hamas-attacks-exhilarating-and-energizing/). Subsequently, nearly 5000 members of the Cornell University community [demanded](https://archive.ph/1jK3T) that Rickford be fired. A [petition](https://www.change.org/p/demand-cornell-university-to-terminate-associate-professor-russell-for-hate-speech) to fire him gathered thousands of signatures. Rickford has taken a leave of absence. Cornell is [committed](https://theuniversityfaculty.cornell.edu/the-new-faculty-handbook/statement-on-academic-freedom-and-freedom-of-speech-and-expression/) to protecting academic freedom. The [Faculty Statement on Academic Freedom and Responsibility](https://theuniversityfaculty.cornell.edu/the-new-faculty-handbook/statement-on-academic-freedom-and-freedom-of-speech-and-expression/) states:\n\n>Academic Freedom for the Faculty means: Freedom of expression in the classroom on matters relevant to the subject and the purpose of the course and of choice of methods in classroom teaching; from direction and restraint in scholarship, research, and creative expression and in the discussion and publication of the results thereof; to speak and write as a citizen without institutional censorship or discipline. . . \n\n>Academic freedom is valued very highly at Cornell, and the University Faculty defends it tenaciously; nevertheless, the same University Faculty is disinclined to see the concept abused. Academic freedom does not imply immunity from prosecution for illegal acts of wrongdoing, nor does it provide license for faculty members to do whatever they choose.\n\nIn recent years, there has been significant controversy around free speech and academic freedom in the Ivy League, especially around the free speech of centrist and right-leaning professors. [Amy Wax](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amy_Wax) has [come](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/13/us/upenn-law-professor-racism-freedom-speech.html) [under fire](https://quillette.com/2023/03/06/amy-wax-and-academic-freedom/) for remarks that some people have perceived as racist, and the dean of Penn law has started a [faculty review process](https://archive.is/www.inquirer.com/news/amy-wax-penn-law-sanctions-20220118.html) that could lead to sanctions against her. [Joshua Katz](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joshua_Katz_(classicist)) was [fired](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/23/us/princeton-fires-joshua-katz.html) by Princeton for a consensual relationship he had with a student in the mid-2000s, though many [suspect](https://quillette.com/2022/05/26/the-firing-of-joshua-t-katz/) the true cause is an [article](https://quillette.com/2020/07/08/a-declaration-of-independence-by-a-princeton-professor/) he wrote in Quillette." }, { "id": 19775, "title": "Will western sources conclude, before 2025, that Israel has used white phosphorus?", "short_title": "Israel White Phosphorus Use Before 2025?", "url_title": "Israel White Phosphorus Use Before 2025?", "slug": "israel-white-phosphorus-use-before-2025", "author_id": 111743, "author_username": "NathanpmYoung", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-11-02T13:41:17.462607Z", "published_at": "2023-11-02T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:45.637639Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-11-02T22:00:00Z", "comment_count": 28, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-11-06T15:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-11-06T15:59:00Z", "open_time": "2023-11-02T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 43, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 19775, "title": "Will western sources conclude, before 2025, that Israel has used white phosphorus?", "created_at": "2023-11-02T13:41:17.462607Z", "open_time": "2023-11-02T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-11-03T00:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-11-03T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-11-06T15:59:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-11-06T15:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-11-06T15:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "There have been [several](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/human-rights-watch-says-israel-used-white-phosphorous-gaza-lebanon-2023-10-12/) [accusations](https://apnews.com/article/israel-gaza-lebanon-white-phosphorus-war-5aebf0cc8d587951a718cefe329bc8b3) of Israel using white phosphorus following the [October 7 attack](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Hamas_attack_on_Israel) on Israel by Hamas. According to [CBS News](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/what-is-white-phosphorus-russia-ukraine/):\n\n>Because of its incendiary effects, the use of phosphorus in war is supposed to be tightly regulated under international law — but it is not banned. Phosphorus is not classed as a chemical weapon under the Chemical Weapons Convention.\n>\n>When used as a weapon, it can cause fire to rain down on targets, inflicting indiscriminate damage. It is illegal, therefore, for phosphorus to be used near civilians, because international law requires that combatants distinguish between civilian and military elements.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2025, any three of the following government or media sources conclude that Israel has used white phosphorus any time after October 7, 2023:\n\n* The United Kingdom\n* The United States\n* France\n* Germany\n* Japan\n* South Korea\n* Israel\n* The United Nations\n* The Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW)\n* Reports published by one of the following sources and based on independent investigations conducted by the same source each also count as one qualifying report\n * BBC\n * The Guardian\n * AP\n * Reuters\n\nThe use of white phosphorus must be explicitly stated by these sources, and the reported use must occur within the stated timeframe. Negative statements do not in themselves resolve this question as **No**. The question will resolve as **No** if no such use is reported by the deadline. Any use reported after the deadline will not count towards the resolution of this question.", "fine_print": "* Statements must be conclusive. For example a statement must use language such as \"we have concluded that Israel used chemical weapons\" or \"we have proof that Israel used chemical weapons\". Statements such as \"we think it is likely that Israel used chemical weapons\" or \"Israel may have used chemical weapons\" or any other statements expressing uncertainty will **not** qualify.\n* Leaks, anonymous statements, and other non-public statements will not qualify.\n* Metaculus may make a determination in the event there is ambiguity about whether a statement satisfies these criteria.", "post_id": 19775, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1699282558.015339, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 43, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.67 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1699282558.015339, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 43, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.67 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5, 0.5 ], "means": [ 0.5403184604185164 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05224102104996991, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1387803475283947, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6220865835985105, 0.422773645711402, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12426951433661654, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0200067169715049, 0.0, 0.5076216596075528, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03353515913390628, 0.0, 0.777009513984749, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08552645092262164, 0.0, 1.7229039360080076, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06825837252413955, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4982966207386803, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15458320800495146, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5726740774817343, 0.4087635135272165, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5265764566181663, 0.681359841032652, 0.0, 1.003858647581822, 0.0, 0.0, 0.028511763448086522, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05985794318764461, 0.0, 0.32164011524324393, 0.25633089729369585, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010488891604094424, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09878615287055517, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7922460993238396, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6340127494467535 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1699282558.015339, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 43, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1699282558.015339, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 43, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7297851478375568, 0.2702148521624433 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 75, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "There have been [several](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/human-rights-watch-says-israel-used-white-phosphorous-gaza-lebanon-2023-10-12/) [accusations](https://apnews.com/article/israel-gaza-lebanon-white-phosphorus-war-5aebf0cc8d587951a718cefe329bc8b3) of Israel using white phosphorus following the [October 7 attack](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Hamas_attack_on_Israel) on Israel by Hamas. According to [CBS News](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/what-is-white-phosphorus-russia-ukraine/):\n\n>Because of its incendiary effects, the use of phosphorus in war is supposed to be tightly regulated under international law — but it is not banned. Phosphorus is not classed as a chemical weapon under the Chemical Weapons Convention.\n>\n>When used as a weapon, it can cause fire to rain down on targets, inflicting indiscriminate damage. It is illegal, therefore, for phosphorus to be used near civilians, because international law requires that combatants distinguish between civilian and military elements." }, { "id": 19767, "title": "Will a US aircraft carrier be destroyed in combat before 2030?", "short_title": "US aircraft carrier sunk before 2030?", "url_title": "US aircraft carrier sunk before 2030?", "slug": "us-aircraft-carrier-sunk-before-2030", "author_id": 130973, "author_username": "NMorrison", "coauthors": [ { "id": 111743, "username": "NathanpmYoung" }, { "id": 130846, "username": "ForkLeaf" } ], "created_at": "2023-11-01T23:21:52.245908Z", "published_at": "2023-11-10T23:15:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-30T21:32:14.407580Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-11-10T23:15:00Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-11-10T23:15:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 42, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 19767, "title": "Will a US aircraft carrier be destroyed in combat before 2030?", "created_at": "2023-11-01T23:21:52.245908Z", "open_time": "2023-11-10T23:15:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-11-13T23:15:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-11-13T23:15:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T19:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-12-31T19:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The United States military has long relied on aircraft carriers to project power and support its operations around the world. Due to their strategic value, these carriers are some of the most well-defended military targets in the world. The [last time](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_sunken_aircraft_carriers) an American aircraft carrier was sunk in combat was at the battle of Iwo Jima in 1945. Despite this, [much speculation](https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/01/10/think-tank-the-us-fleet-could-lose-four-aircraft-carriers-defending-taiwan/?sh=68e60f712a37) exists on the possibility of American aircraft carriers being destroyed in conflicts with adversaries such as China, Russia, or Iran.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2030, reporting from [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) indicates that a United States aircraft carrier has been sunk, destroyed, or damaged such that it must be decommissioned due to enemy military action. This question pertains to the [carrier vehicle](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_aircraft_carriers_of_the_United_States_Navy) (CVs) class, NOT helicopter carriers (such as [LHD](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Landing_helicopter_dock)'s).", "fine_print": "* Any new or existing CV variant, as classified by the US, will be considered for this question.\n* Enemy military action will be considered to be any combative action from an opposing belligerent or combatant force, including terrorism and non-human action.", "post_id": 19767, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762365320.229441, "end_time": 1765613181.49378, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.037 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.09 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762365320.229441, "end_time": 1765613181.49378, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.037 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.09 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.963, 0.037 ], "means": [ 0.08947914345194041 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.16643491542409378, 0.28374583482970095, 0.3785328776263561, 2.9184688272013393, 0.0, 0.5181819454816633, 0.6059345510304436, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7845533632614763, 0.24311673443421436, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.28862105284580747, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6909710575892369, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13444868060126633, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289588.483575, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 39, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289588.483575, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 39, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9909506445971563, 0.009049355402843672 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 91, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The United States military has long relied on aircraft carriers to project power and support its operations around the world. Due to their strategic value, these carriers are some of the most well-defended military targets in the world. The [last time](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_sunken_aircraft_carriers) an American aircraft carrier was sunk in combat was at the battle of Iwo Jima in 1945. Despite this, [much speculation](https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/01/10/think-tank-the-us-fleet-could-lose-four-aircraft-carriers-defending-taiwan/?sh=68e60f712a37) exists on the possibility of American aircraft carriers being destroyed in conflicts with adversaries such as China, Russia, or Iran." } ] }
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