computing critical understanding aggregating accurate insights aggregating accurate wisdom assembling definitive insights calculating definitive contingencies mapping the future modeling calibrated wisdom modeling predictive forecasts mapping definitive contingencies aggregating contingent contingencies calculating predictive understanding delivering calibrated contingencies calculating contingent understanding crowdsourcing precise wisdom

Question

{{(qctrl.graphMouseVal.num || 0) | abbrNumber}} predictions {{qctrl.graphMouseVal.percent | percent:0}}
{{qctrl.question.votes}} interested
    {{qctrl.question.statusStr()}} {{qctrl.question.substatus()}}

    Will 2016 be the warmest year on record?

    created by traviswfisher on Feb 08 2016

    Climate change driven largely by increased atmospheric levels of CO2 and other greenhouse gases, is generating an upward trend to the global average surface temperature, as exhibited in this summary plot

    Last year (2015) the average temperature set new record highs by a large margin, according to the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Sciences (GISS) data analysis.

    Will 2016 again set a new record? Or will it fall below the level of 2015?

    This will resolve in the positive if the NASA GISS global average temperature for 2016 is published above that of 2015.

    Categories: Environment - Climate

    Make a predictionUpdate your predictionFinal prediction

    1% 99%
    if no
    {{qctrl.scoreForGuess('N') | signedNumber}} points
    if yes
    {{qctrl.scoreForGuess('Y') | signedNumber}} points
    did this actually happen? {{qctrl.question.resolutionString()}}
    you won {{qctrl.question.my_predictions.points_won}} points
    you lost {{-qctrl.question.my_predictions.points_won}} points

    Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

    Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

    Thanks for predicting!

    Since you're not signed in, your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

    Track your predictions
    Continue exploring the site
    random question question list

    Community Stats

    • {{qctrl.question.predictionCount()}} predictions by {{qctrl.question.uniquePredictionCount()}} users
    • The median prediction is {{qctrl.question.predictionMedian() | percent:0}}
    • The mean prediction is {{qctrl.question.predictionMean() | percent:0}}

    Delete Comment

    Are you sure you want to delete this comment written by {{ cctrl.deleteComm.author_name }}?
    Yes

    {{cctrl.deleteComm.comment_text}}

    Comments ({{cctrl.commentCount}})

    Post a Comment:

    {{cctrl.submitError}}
    Post Preview (using Markdown)

    Post a Comment

    View Comments:

    Load More