34 comments
91 forecasters
Hutter prize: when will a compression method achieve 1 bit-per-character on a 100MB sample of Wikipedia?
Latest estimate
21 Mar 2024
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Jul 3, 2017
Closed:Sep 15, 2019
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2030
Spot Scoring Time:Jul 5, 2017
Before January 1, 2026, what will be the highest compression factor achieved for the Hutter Prize?
9.04
(9.01 - 9.07)
9.04
(9.01 - 9.07)
41 forecasters
When will a language model be developed that, when tested, yields approximately human-level output?
05 Jun 2024
(05 May 2023 - 10 Feb 2027)
05 Jun 2024
(05 May 2023 - 10 Feb 2027)
36 forecasters
When will the first 100 million digit prime number be discovered?
Jan 2034
(06 May 2028 - Jul 2039)
Jan 2034
(06 May 2028 - Jul 2039)
36 forecasters