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"title": "What will world real GDP growth per capita be in the following years? (2025)",
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"title": "What will world real GDP growth per capita be in the following years? (2052)",
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"resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as the [geometric mean](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/071113/breaking-down-geometric-mean.asp) of the world real GDP growth in the respective year (also known as the compound annual growth rate, or CAGR), based on the GDP per capita data from [Our World In Data](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/gdp-per-capita-worldbank?tab=chart&country=~OWID_WRL). OWID currently reports this data in real (inflation adjusted) values; if this changes, data will be indexed using the [World Bank's GDP deflator for the US](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.DEFL.ZS?locations=US) for inflation and [purchasing power parity](https://www.worldbank.org/en/programs/icp), or a similar method if unavailable.\n\nThe resolution value will be calculated according to the following formula, in percentage points, where X is the listed year. The GDP for 2020 will always be taken as the GDP shown on the chart for 2020 at the resolution time for each listed year.\n\n\\begin{align}\n\\left[\\left(\\frac{GDP_{X}}{GDP_{2020}}\\right)^{1/(X - 2020)} - 1 \\right]× 100\n\\end{align}\n\nFor example, if GDP per capita in 2025 was reported to be 18,000, and 2020 was 16,185; this question would resolve as 2.15 for the year 2025.\n\nThe resolution for each year will be determined by the earliest credible data reported by Our World in Data; later updates or revisions by OWID will be irrelevant to the question resolution.\n\nIf data reported by OWID contains a significant error (aside from typical adjustments from scheduled data releases), Metaculus may re-resolve the question at their sole discretion. If OWID no longer reports data for a relevant year, Metaculus may use an alternative credible source of data at their discretion, or resolve as **Ambiguous**.\n\nIf no humans are left alive prior to a listed year, that sub-question will resolve as **below the lower boundary**.",
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"title": "What will world real GDP growth per capita be in the following years? (2122)",
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