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        "description": "<iframe src=\"https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/gdp-per-capita-worldbank?tab=chart&country=~OWID_WRL\" loading=\"lazy\" style=\"width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;\" />  \nGross domestic product (GDP) is [defined by Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/g/gdp.asp) as\n\n> the total monetary or market value of all the finished goods and services produced within a country’s borders in a specific time period.\n\nGDP is useful as a measure of a country's overall economic output. GDP per capita is measured as a country's GDP divided by its population, which is an important measure of economic output per person and can be a useful indicator of general well-being in a country.\n\nGDP per capita is necessary for between-country comparisons due to different population sizes, but an additional adjustment must be made to truly compare between countries due to different exchange rates and currency values. This adjustment is known as purchasing power parity (PPP). The [World Bank describes its PPP adjustment as follows](https://www.worldbank.org/en/programs/icp):\n\n> PPPs are calculated based on the price of a common basket of goods and services in each participating economy and are a measure of what an economy’s local currency can buy in another economy. Market exchange rate-based conversions reflect both price and volume differences in expenditures and are thus inappropriate for volume comparisons. PPP-based conversions of expenditures eliminate the effect of price level differences between economies and reflect only differences in the volume of economies.\n\nUsing GDP per capita adjusted by PPP allows for comparisons between countries (though note that GDP per capita is a measure of the average economic output per person and therefore cannot indicate inequality in well-being). The PPP adjustment currently used in the Our World in Data chart is calculated by the World Bank and converts the different currencies to constant 2017 international dollars. According to Our World in Data\n\n> An international dollar has the same purchasing power over GDP as the U.S. dollar has in the United States.",
        "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as the [geometric mean](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/071113/breaking-down-geometric-mean.asp) of the world real GDP growth in the respective year (also known as the compound annual growth rate, or CAGR), based on the GDP per capita data from [Our World In Data](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/gdp-per-capita-worldbank?tab=chart\\&country=~OWID_WRL).  OWID currently reports this data in real (inflation adjusted) values; if this changes, data will be indexed using the [World Bank's GDP deflator for the US](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.DEFL.ZS?locations=US) for inflation and [purchasing power parity](https://www.worldbank.org/en/programs/icp), or a similar method if unavailable.\n\nThe resolution value will be calculated according to the following formula, in percentage points, where X is the listed year. The GDP for 2020 will always be taken as the GDP shown on the chart for 2020 at the resolution time for each listed year.\n\n$$\n\\begin{align}\n\\left[\\left(\\frac{GDP_{X}}{GDP_{2020}}\\right)^{1/(X - 2020)} - 1 \\right]× 100\n\\end{align}\n$$\n\nFor example, if GDP per capita in 2025 was reported to be 18,000, and 2020 was 16,185; this question would resolve as 2.15 for the year 2025.\n\nThe resolution for each year will be determined by the earliest credible data reported by Our World in Data; later updates or revisions by OWID will be irrelevant to the question resolution.\n\nIf data reported by OWID contains a significant error (aside from typical adjustments from scheduled data releases), Metaculus may re-resolve the question at their sole discretion.  If OWID no longer reports data for a relevant year, Metaculus may use an alternative credible source of data at their discretion, or resolve as **Ambiguous**.\n\nIf no humans are left alive prior to a listed year, that sub-question will resolve as **below the lower boundary**.",
        "fine_print": "* If humanity establishes off-Earth colonies and Our World in Data adds a \"Total Humanity\" measure (or equivalent) to the chart, that measure will be used instead of the \"World\" measure.\n* The per capita data and number of humans alive will include humans only, where \"humans\" will be defined as members of a species with enough biological similarity to reproduce with typical 2022 humans with medical assistance which could be available in the year 1900.\n* While other questions in the Forecasting OWID tournament are conditional on world GDP remaining greater than $100 billion (2021 USD) and the human population remaining above 5% of its previous peak, this question does **not** require these conditions.",
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                "id": 12665,
                "title": "What will world real GDP growth per capita be in the following years? (2025)",
                "description": "<iframe src=\"https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/gdp-per-capita-worldbank?tab=chart&country=~OWID_WRL\" loading=\"lazy\" style=\"width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;\"></iframe>\n\nGross domestic product (GDP) is [defined by Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/g/gdp.asp) as\n\n>the total monetary or market value of all the finished goods and services produced within a country’s borders in a specific time period.\n\nGDP is useful as a measure of a country's overall economic output. GDP per capita is measured as a country's GDP divided by its population, which is an important measure of economic output per person and can be a useful indicator of general well-being in a country.\n\nGDP per capita is necessary for between-country comparisons due to different population sizes, but an additional adjustment must be made to truly compare between countries due to different exchange rates and currency values. This adjustment is known as purchasing power parity (PPP). The [World Bank describes its PPP adjustment as follows](https://www.worldbank.org/en/programs/icp):\n\n>PPPs are calculated based on the price of a common basket of goods and services in each participating economy and are a measure of what an economy’s local currency can buy in another economy. Market exchange rate-based conversions reflect both price and volume differences in expenditures and are thus inappropriate for volume comparisons. PPP-based conversions of expenditures eliminate the effect of price level differences between economies and reflect only differences in the volume of economies.\n\nUsing GDP per capita adjusted by PPP allows for comparisons between countries (though note that GDP per capita is a measure of the average economic output per person and therefore cannot indicate inequality in well-being). The PPP adjustment currently used in the Our World in Data chart is calculated by the World Bank and converts the different currencies to constant 2017 international dollars. According to Our World in Data\n\n>An international dollar has the same purchasing power over GDP as the U.S. dollar has in the United States.",
                "created_at": "2022-09-28T19:22:30.344474Z",
                "open_time": "2022-10-19T20:00:00Z",
                "cp_reveal_time": "2023-01-17T07:49:52.640400Z",
                "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-08-02T04:00:00Z",
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                "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T05:00:00Z",
                "actual_close_time": "2026-01-01T05:00:00Z",
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                "status": "open",
                "possibilities": {
                    "low": "tail",
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                    "type": "continuous",
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                "question_weight": 1.0,
                "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as the [geometric mean](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/071113/breaking-down-geometric-mean.asp) of the world real GDP growth in the respective year (also known as the compound annual growth rate, or CAGR), based on the GDP per capita data from [Our World In Data](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/gdp-per-capita-worldbank?tab=chart&country=~OWID_WRL).  OWID currently reports this data in real (inflation adjusted) values; if this changes, data will be indexed using the [World Bank's GDP deflator for the US](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.DEFL.ZS?locations=US) for inflation and [purchasing power parity](https://www.worldbank.org/en/programs/icp), or a similar method if unavailable.\n\nThe resolution value will be calculated according to the following formula, in percentage points, where X is the listed year. The GDP for 2020 will always be taken as the GDP shown on the chart for 2020 at the resolution time for each listed year.\n\n\\begin{align}\n\\left[\\left(\\frac{GDP_{X}}{GDP_{2020}}\\right)^{1/(X - 2020)} - 1 \\right]× 100\n\\end{align}\n\nFor example, if GDP per capita in 2025 was reported to be 18,000, and 2020 was 16,185; this question would resolve as 2.15 for the year 2025.\n\nThe resolution for each year will be determined by the earliest credible data reported by Our World in Data; later updates or revisions by OWID will be irrelevant to the question resolution.\n\nIf data reported by OWID contains a significant error (aside from typical adjustments from scheduled data releases), Metaculus may re-resolve the question at their sole discretion.  If OWID no longer reports data for a relevant year, Metaculus may use an alternative credible source of data at their discretion, or resolve as **Ambiguous**.\n\nIf no humans are left alive prior to a listed year, that sub-question will resolve as **below the lower boundary**.",
                "fine_print": "* If humanity establishes off-Earth colonies and Our World in Data adds a \"Total Humanity\" measure (or equivalent) to the chart, that measure will be used instead of the \"World\" measure.\n* The per capita data and number of humans alive will include humans only, where \"humans\" will be defined as members of a species with enough biological similarity to reproduce with typical 2022 humans with medical assistance which could be available in the year 1900.\n* While other questions in the Forecasting OWID tournament are conditional on world GDP remaining greater than $100 billion (2021 USD) and the human population remaining above 5% of its previous peak, this question does **not** require these conditions.",
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                "title": "What will world real GDP growth per capita be in the following years? (2032)",
                "description": "<iframe src=\"https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/gdp-per-capita-worldbank?tab=chart&country=~OWID_WRL\" loading=\"lazy\" style=\"width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;\"></iframe>\n\nGross domestic product (GDP) is [defined by Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/g/gdp.asp) as\n\n>the total monetary or market value of all the finished goods and services produced within a country’s borders in a specific time period.\n\nGDP is useful as a measure of a country's overall economic output. GDP per capita is measured as a country's GDP divided by its population, which is an important measure of economic output per person and can be a useful indicator of general well-being in a country.\n\nGDP per capita is necessary for between-country comparisons due to different population sizes, but an additional adjustment must be made to truly compare between countries due to different exchange rates and currency values. This adjustment is known as purchasing power parity (PPP). The [World Bank describes its PPP adjustment as follows](https://www.worldbank.org/en/programs/icp):\n\n>PPPs are calculated based on the price of a common basket of goods and services in each participating economy and are a measure of what an economy’s local currency can buy in another economy. Market exchange rate-based conversions reflect both price and volume differences in expenditures and are thus inappropriate for volume comparisons. PPP-based conversions of expenditures eliminate the effect of price level differences between economies and reflect only differences in the volume of economies.\n\nUsing GDP per capita adjusted by PPP allows for comparisons between countries (though note that GDP per capita is a measure of the average economic output per person and therefore cannot indicate inequality in well-being). The PPP adjustment currently used in the Our World in Data chart is calculated by the World Bank and converts the different currencies to constant 2017 international dollars. According to Our World in Data\n\n>An international dollar has the same purchasing power over GDP as the U.S. dollar has in the United States.",
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                "cp_reveal_time": "2023-01-17T16:10:01.296840Z",
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                "scheduled_close_time": "2033-01-01T05:00:00Z",
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                "question_weight": 1.0,
                "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as the [geometric mean](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/071113/breaking-down-geometric-mean.asp) of the world real GDP growth in the respective year (also known as the compound annual growth rate, or CAGR), based on the GDP per capita data from [Our World In Data](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/gdp-per-capita-worldbank?tab=chart&country=~OWID_WRL).  OWID currently reports this data in real (inflation adjusted) values; if this changes, data will be indexed using the [World Bank's GDP deflator for the US](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.DEFL.ZS?locations=US) for inflation and [purchasing power parity](https://www.worldbank.org/en/programs/icp), or a similar method if unavailable.\n\nThe resolution value will be calculated according to the following formula, in percentage points, where X is the listed year. The GDP for 2020 will always be taken as the GDP shown on the chart for 2020 at the resolution time for each listed year.\n\n\\begin{align}\n\\left[\\left(\\frac{GDP_{X}}{GDP_{2020}}\\right)^{1/(X - 2020)} - 1 \\right]× 100\n\\end{align}\n\nFor example, if GDP per capita in 2025 was reported to be 18,000, and 2020 was 16,185; this question would resolve as 2.15 for the year 2025.\n\nThe resolution for each year will be determined by the earliest credible data reported by Our World in Data; later updates or revisions by OWID will be irrelevant to the question resolution.\n\nIf data reported by OWID contains a significant error (aside from typical adjustments from scheduled data releases), Metaculus may re-resolve the question at their sole discretion.  If OWID no longer reports data for a relevant year, Metaculus may use an alternative credible source of data at their discretion, or resolve as **Ambiguous**.\n\nIf no humans are left alive prior to a listed year, that sub-question will resolve as **below the lower boundary**.",
                "fine_print": "* If humanity establishes off-Earth colonies and Our World in Data adds a \"Total Humanity\" measure (or equivalent) to the chart, that measure will be used instead of the \"World\" measure.\n* The per capita data and number of humans alive will include humans only, where \"humans\" will be defined as members of a species with enough biological similarity to reproduce with typical 2022 humans with medical assistance which could be available in the year 1900.\n* While other questions in the Forecasting OWID tournament are conditional on world GDP remaining greater than $100 billion (2021 USD) and the human population remaining above 5% of its previous peak, this question does **not** require these conditions.",
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                "title": "What will world real GDP growth per capita be in the following years? (2052)",
                "description": "<iframe src=\"https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/gdp-per-capita-worldbank?tab=chart&country=~OWID_WRL\" loading=\"lazy\" style=\"width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;\"></iframe>\n\nGross domestic product (GDP) is [defined by Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/g/gdp.asp) as\n\n>the total monetary or market value of all the finished goods and services produced within a country’s borders in a specific time period.\n\nGDP is useful as a measure of a country's overall economic output. GDP per capita is measured as a country's GDP divided by its population, which is an important measure of economic output per person and can be a useful indicator of general well-being in a country.\n\nGDP per capita is necessary for between-country comparisons due to different population sizes, but an additional adjustment must be made to truly compare between countries due to different exchange rates and currency values. This adjustment is known as purchasing power parity (PPP). The [World Bank describes its PPP adjustment as follows](https://www.worldbank.org/en/programs/icp):\n\n>PPPs are calculated based on the price of a common basket of goods and services in each participating economy and are a measure of what an economy’s local currency can buy in another economy. Market exchange rate-based conversions reflect both price and volume differences in expenditures and are thus inappropriate for volume comparisons. PPP-based conversions of expenditures eliminate the effect of price level differences between economies and reflect only differences in the volume of economies.\n\nUsing GDP per capita adjusted by PPP allows for comparisons between countries (though note that GDP per capita is a measure of the average economic output per person and therefore cannot indicate inequality in well-being). The PPP adjustment currently used in the Our World in Data chart is calculated by the World Bank and converts the different currencies to constant 2017 international dollars. According to Our World in Data\n\n>An international dollar has the same purchasing power over GDP as the U.S. dollar has in the United States.",
                "created_at": "2022-09-28T19:22:30.344675Z",
                "open_time": "2022-10-19T20:00:00Z",
                "cp_reveal_time": "2023-01-17T18:42:59.529960Z",
                "scheduled_resolve_time": "2053-08-02T04:00:00Z",
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                "scheduled_close_time": "2053-01-01T05:00:00Z",
                "actual_close_time": "2053-01-01T05:00:00Z",
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                "status": "open",
                "possibilities": {
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                "question_weight": 1.0,
                "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as the [geometric mean](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/071113/breaking-down-geometric-mean.asp) of the world real GDP growth in the respective year (also known as the compound annual growth rate, or CAGR), based on the GDP per capita data from [Our World In Data](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/gdp-per-capita-worldbank?tab=chart&country=~OWID_WRL).  OWID currently reports this data in real (inflation adjusted) values; if this changes, data will be indexed using the [World Bank's GDP deflator for the US](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.DEFL.ZS?locations=US) for inflation and [purchasing power parity](https://www.worldbank.org/en/programs/icp), or a similar method if unavailable.\n\nThe resolution value will be calculated according to the following formula, in percentage points, where X is the listed year. The GDP for 2020 will always be taken as the GDP shown on the chart for 2020 at the resolution time for each listed year.\n\n\\begin{align}\n\\left[\\left(\\frac{GDP_{X}}{GDP_{2020}}\\right)^{1/(X - 2020)} - 1 \\right]× 100\n\\end{align}\n\nFor example, if GDP per capita in 2025 was reported to be 18,000, and 2020 was 16,185; this question would resolve as 2.15 for the year 2025.\n\nThe resolution for each year will be determined by the earliest credible data reported by Our World in Data; later updates or revisions by OWID will be irrelevant to the question resolution.\n\nIf data reported by OWID contains a significant error (aside from typical adjustments from scheduled data releases), Metaculus may re-resolve the question at their sole discretion.  If OWID no longer reports data for a relevant year, Metaculus may use an alternative credible source of data at their discretion, or resolve as **Ambiguous**.\n\nIf no humans are left alive prior to a listed year, that sub-question will resolve as **below the lower boundary**.",
                "fine_print": "* If humanity establishes off-Earth colonies and Our World in Data adds a \"Total Humanity\" measure (or equivalent) to the chart, that measure will be used instead of the \"World\" measure.\n* The per capita data and number of humans alive will include humans only, where \"humans\" will be defined as members of a species with enough biological similarity to reproduce with typical 2022 humans with medical assistance which could be available in the year 1900.\n* While other questions in the Forecasting OWID tournament are conditional on world GDP remaining greater than $100 billion (2021 USD) and the human population remaining above 5% of its previous peak, this question does **not** require these conditions.",
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                "open_lower_bound": true,
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                "title": "What will world real GDP growth per capita be in the following years? (2122)",
                "description": "<iframe src=\"https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/gdp-per-capita-worldbank?tab=chart&country=~OWID_WRL\" loading=\"lazy\" style=\"width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;\"></iframe>\n\nGross domestic product (GDP) is [defined by Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/g/gdp.asp) as\n\n>the total monetary or market value of all the finished goods and services produced within a country’s borders in a specific time period.\n\nGDP is useful as a measure of a country's overall economic output. GDP per capita is measured as a country's GDP divided by its population, which is an important measure of economic output per person and can be a useful indicator of general well-being in a country.\n\nGDP per capita is necessary for between-country comparisons due to different population sizes, but an additional adjustment must be made to truly compare between countries due to different exchange rates and currency values. This adjustment is known as purchasing power parity (PPP). The [World Bank describes its PPP adjustment as follows](https://www.worldbank.org/en/programs/icp):\n\n>PPPs are calculated based on the price of a common basket of goods and services in each participating economy and are a measure of what an economy’s local currency can buy in another economy. Market exchange rate-based conversions reflect both price and volume differences in expenditures and are thus inappropriate for volume comparisons. PPP-based conversions of expenditures eliminate the effect of price level differences between economies and reflect only differences in the volume of economies.\n\nUsing GDP per capita adjusted by PPP allows for comparisons between countries (though note that GDP per capita is a measure of the average economic output per person and therefore cannot indicate inequality in well-being). The PPP adjustment currently used in the Our World in Data chart is calculated by the World Bank and converts the different currencies to constant 2017 international dollars. According to Our World in Data\n\n>An international dollar has the same purchasing power over GDP as the U.S. dollar has in the United States.",
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                "open_time": "2022-10-19T20:00:00Z",
                "cp_reveal_time": "2023-01-17T19:34:01.854840Z",
                "scheduled_resolve_time": "2123-08-02T04:00:00Z",
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                "scheduled_close_time": "2123-01-01T05:00:00Z",
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                "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as the [geometric mean](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/071113/breaking-down-geometric-mean.asp) of the world real GDP growth in the respective year (also known as the compound annual growth rate, or CAGR), based on the GDP per capita data from [Our World In Data](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/gdp-per-capita-worldbank?tab=chart&country=~OWID_WRL).  OWID currently reports this data in real (inflation adjusted) values; if this changes, data will be indexed using the [World Bank's GDP deflator for the US](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.DEFL.ZS?locations=US) for inflation and [purchasing power parity](https://www.worldbank.org/en/programs/icp), or a similar method if unavailable.\n\nThe resolution value will be calculated according to the following formula, in percentage points, where X is the listed year. The GDP for 2020 will always be taken as the GDP shown on the chart for 2020 at the resolution time for each listed year.\n\n\\begin{align}\n\\left[\\left(\\frac{GDP_{X}}{GDP_{2020}}\\right)^{1/(X - 2020)} - 1 \\right]× 100\n\\end{align}\n\nFor example, if GDP per capita in 2025 was reported to be 18,000, and 2020 was 16,185; this question would resolve as 2.15 for the year 2025.\n\nThe resolution for each year will be determined by the earliest credible data reported by Our World in Data; later updates or revisions by OWID will be irrelevant to the question resolution.\n\nIf data reported by OWID contains a significant error (aside from typical adjustments from scheduled data releases), Metaculus may re-resolve the question at their sole discretion.  If OWID no longer reports data for a relevant year, Metaculus may use an alternative credible source of data at their discretion, or resolve as **Ambiguous**.\n\nIf no humans are left alive prior to a listed year, that sub-question will resolve as **below the lower boundary**.",
                "fine_print": "* If humanity establishes off-Earth colonies and Our World in Data adds a \"Total Humanity\" measure (or equivalent) to the chart, that measure will be used instead of the \"World\" measure.\n* The per capita data and number of humans alive will include humans only, where \"humans\" will be defined as members of a species with enough biological similarity to reproduce with typical 2022 humans with medical assistance which could be available in the year 1900.\n* While other questions in the Forecasting OWID tournament are conditional on world GDP remaining greater than $100 billion (2021 USD) and the human population remaining above 5% of its previous peak, this question does **not** require these conditions.",
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