Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=1760
{ "count": 5950, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=1780", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=1740", "results": [ { "id": 29795, "title": "On November 29, 2024, Will Apple have the largest market cap in the world?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "on-november-29-2024-will-apple-have-the-largest-market-cap-in-the-world", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-08T14:19:42.937116Z", "published_at": "2024-11-08T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:58.539240Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 64, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-09T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-09T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-29T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-30T12:19:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-08T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 31, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29647, "title": "On November 29, 2024, Will Apple have the largest market cap in the world?", "created_at": "2024-11-08T14:19:42.937116Z", "open_time": "2024-11-08T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-09T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-09T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-29T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-30T12:19:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-11-30T12:22:52.664521Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-09T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-09T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "As of October 5, 2024, Apple was the #1 company in the world by market cap, according to the resolution source.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves Yes if, on November 29, 2024, Apple is ranked #1 by market capitalization according to [Companies Market Cap](https://companiesmarketcap.com/), when checked by Metaculus after the close of the day's trading.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 29795, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1731165400.207965, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.317 ], "centers": [ 0.41 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1731165400.207965, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.317 ], "centers": [ 0.41 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5900000000000001, 0.41 ], "means": [ 0.4241107574014421 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.41588412507835687, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9134389029481002, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12200872167164427, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.26577008775178024, 0.2358265416482139, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.021585930219435643, 0.46211900267680595, 0.0, 0.6257872328778666, 0.0, 1.0813542942343983, 0.1405470336200478, 0.33432944568041745, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03573243764150962, 0.4595750791136129, 1.7586143445231217, 0.010381142261586365, 0.0, 0.10527918291777463, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20851081619995687, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05382522520245611, 0.0, 0.13445499591932575, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7178406755266394, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3733687775975512, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5667911627135067, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07670684254184146, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5280392838920643, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -33.49935315069057, "peer_score": -7.229218241532439, "coverage": 0.9934303728463473, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9934303728463473, "spot_peer_score": 1.9879769795215827, "spot_baseline_score": -28.63041851566411, "baseline_archived_score": -33.49935315069057, "peer_archived_score": -7.229218241532439, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 1.9879769795215827, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -28.63041851566411 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 63, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "As of October 5, 2024, Apple was the #1 company in the world by market cap, according to the resolution source." }, { "id": 29794, "title": "Will Elon Musk’s net worth differ from the highest other net worth on the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires list by greater than or equal to $100 billion as of January 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-elon-musks-net-worth-differ-from-the-highest-other-net-worth-on-the-forbes-real-time-billionaires-list-by-greater-than-or-equal-to-100-billion-as-of-january-1-2025", "author_id": 126626, "author_username": "skmmcj", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-08T14:19:42.933141Z", "published_at": "2024-11-08T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:51.572741Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 63, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-09T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-09T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T01:14:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-08T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29646, "title": "Will Elon Musk’s net worth differ from the highest other net worth on the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires list by greater than or equal to $100 billion as of January 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2024-11-08T14:19:42.933141Z", "open_time": "2024-11-08T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-09T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-09T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T01:14:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-02T01:36:02.169249Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-09T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-09T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.4308, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Forbes maintains the [Real-Time Billionaires list](https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires), a daily-updated ranking the world's wealthiest individuals based on net worth. Much of the day-to-day movements are linked with the individuals' holdings in publicly-traded companies. Year to date, the top spot has been variously held by [Bernard Arnault](https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesfarrell/2024/01/26/bernard-arnault-overtakes-elon-musk-as-richest-person-in-the-world/), [Jeff Bezos](https://www.forbes.com/sites/mollybohannon/2024/03/08/elon-musk-falls-behind-jeff-bezos-as-richest-person-in-us-again/), and Elon Musk, who has been topping the list for the most days.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if the difference in billion USD between the net worth of Elon Musk and the highest other net worth, as displayed on Forbes' [Real-Time Billionaires list](https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#212c10853d78) on January 1, 2025, is greater than or equal to $100 billion. (Forecasters please note that at the time of this question, November 6, 2024, Elon Musk was listed as having a net worth of $264.7 billion, while the highest other net worth, in this case that of Jeff Bezos, was $216.5 billion. Thus the difference is $48.2 billion.)", "fine_print": "If the Real-Time Billionaires list is not available on January 1, 2025, this question will be resolved as the first day for which it is available.", "post_id": 29794, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1731165400.727946, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.16 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.522 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1731165400.727946, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.16 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.522 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8, 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.32387146478455064 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23522591747316993, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3618408815355444, 0.2010418409121184, 0.0, 0.8213067872820827, 0.0, 0.6318674441304005, 0.2581744010322857, 1.153865828537011, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2459705554977782, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11525585627893538, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05452450123047137, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4087506853414205, 0.0, 1.0391016078398962, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29095551644889905, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7549731054070336, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14719648515667086, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3268262380230357, 1.3364148858342282, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0839758874887769, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "spot_baseline_score": -132.19280948873623, "baseline_score": -125.71476380605915, "peer_score": -11.076762020715963, "coverage": 0.9924063638763295, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9924063638763295, "spot_peer_score": -20.663604056605536, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -132.19280948873623, "baseline_archived_score": -125.71476380605915, "peer_archived_score": -11.076762020715963, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -20.663604056605536 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 62, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Forbes maintains the [Real-Time Billionaires list](https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires), a daily-updated ranking the world's wealthiest individuals based on net worth. Much of the day-to-day movements are linked with the individuals' holdings in publicly-traded companies. Year to date, the top spot has been variously held by [Bernard Arnault](https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesfarrell/2024/01/26/bernard-arnault-overtakes-elon-musk-as-richest-person-in-the-world/), [Jeff Bezos](https://www.forbes.com/sites/mollybohannon/2024/03/08/elon-musk-falls-behind-jeff-bezos-as-richest-person-in-us-again/), and Elon Musk, who has been topping the list for the most days." }, { "id": 29793, "title": "Will Elon Musk’s net worth differ from the highest other net worth on the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires list by greater than $70 billion and less than $100 billion as of January 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-elon-musks-net-worth-differ-from-the-highest-other-net-worth-on-the-forbes-real-time-billionaires-list-by-greater-than-70-billion-and-less-than-100-billion-as-of-january-1-2025", "author_id": 126626, "author_username": "skmmcj", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-08T14:19:42.925784Z", "published_at": "2024-11-08T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:23.655054Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 63, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-09T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-09T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T01:14:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-08T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 31, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29645, "title": "Will Elon Musk’s net worth differ from the highest other net worth on the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires list by greater than $70 billion and less than $100 billion as of January 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2024-11-08T14:19:42.925784Z", "open_time": "2024-11-08T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-09T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-09T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T01:14:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-02T01:33:46.419167Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-09T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-09T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.4308, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Forbes maintains the [Real-Time Billionaires list](https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires), a daily-updated ranking the world's wealthiest individuals based on net worth. Much of the day-to-day movements are linked with the individuals' holdings in publicly-traded companies. Year to date, the top spot has been variously held by [Bernard Arnault](https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesfarrell/2024/01/26/bernard-arnault-overtakes-elon-musk-as-richest-person-in-the-world/), [Jeff Bezos](https://www.forbes.com/sites/mollybohannon/2024/03/08/elon-musk-falls-behind-jeff-bezos-as-richest-person-in-us-again/), and Elon Musk, who has been topping the list for the most days.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if the difference in billion USD between the net worth of Elon Musk and the highest other net worth, as displayed on Forbes' [Real-Time Billionaires list](https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#212c10853d78) on January 1, 2025, is greater than $70 billion and less than $100 billion. (Forecasters please note that at the time of this question, November 6, 2024, Elon Musk was listed as having a net worth of $264.7 billion, while the highest other net worth, in this case that of Jeff Bezos, was $216.5 billion. Thus the difference is $48.2 billion.)", "fine_print": "If the Real-Time Billionaires list is not available on January 1, 2025, this question will be resolved as the first day for which it is available.", "post_id": 29793, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1731165401.245576, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.32299999999999995 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5397500000000001 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1731165401.245576, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.32299999999999995 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5397500000000001 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.677, 0.32299999999999995 ], "means": [ 0.3732715737963839 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2358265416482139, 1.0, 0.1836394386094319, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0896751076827838, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07670684254184146, 0.6257872328778666, 0.6417854608196005, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.41588412507835687, 0.3015863124192444, 0.0, 0.5123307444416587, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.26577008775178024, 0.0, 1.2692930711234618, 0.0, 0.04423342207722153, 0.0, 0.0, 0.33432944568041745, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.028218870368318452, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7586143445231218, 0.0, 0.10527918291777463, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0902215738421042, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8331016997804591, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3733687775975512, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.46211900267680595, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "spot_baseline_score": 43.72277389129098, "baseline_score": 45.61766847959519, "peer_score": 8.380374934291675, "coverage": 0.9913296971304549, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9913296971304549, "spot_peer_score": 9.657895055304108, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 43.72277389129098, "baseline_archived_score": 45.61766847959519, "peer_archived_score": 8.380374934291675, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 9.657895055304108 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 62, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Forbes maintains the [Real-Time Billionaires list](https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires), a daily-updated ranking the world's wealthiest individuals based on net worth. Much of the day-to-day movements are linked with the individuals' holdings in publicly-traded companies. Year to date, the top spot has been variously held by [Bernard Arnault](https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesfarrell/2024/01/26/bernard-arnault-overtakes-elon-musk-as-richest-person-in-the-world/), [Jeff Bezos](https://www.forbes.com/sites/mollybohannon/2024/03/08/elon-musk-falls-behind-jeff-bezos-as-richest-person-in-us-again/), and Elon Musk, who has been topping the list for the most days." }, { "id": 29792, "title": "Will Elon Musk’s net worth differ from the highest other net worth on the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires list by greater than or equal to $40 billion and less than or equal to $70 billion as of January 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-elon-musks-net-worth-differ-from-the-highest-other-net-worth-on-the-forbes-real-time-billionaires-list-by-greater-than-or-equal-to-40-billion-and-less-than-or-equal-to-70-billion-as-of-january-1-2025", "author_id": 126626, "author_username": "skmmcj", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-08T14:19:42.783087Z", "published_at": "2024-11-08T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:25.266254Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 62, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-09T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-09T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T01:14:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-08T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29644, "title": "Will Elon Musk’s net worth differ from the highest other net worth on the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires list by greater than or equal to $40 billion and less than or equal to $70 billion as of January 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2024-11-08T14:19:42.783087Z", "open_time": "2024-11-08T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-09T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-09T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T01:14:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-02T01:33:04.265434Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-09T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-09T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.4308, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Forbes maintains the [Real-Time Billionaires list](https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires), a daily-updated ranking the world's wealthiest individuals based on net worth. Much of the day-to-day movements are linked with the individuals' holdings in publicly-traded companies. Year to date, the top spot has been variously held by [Bernard Arnault](https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesfarrell/2024/01/26/bernard-arnault-overtakes-elon-musk-as-richest-person-in-the-world/), [Jeff Bezos](https://www.forbes.com/sites/mollybohannon/2024/03/08/elon-musk-falls-behind-jeff-bezos-as-richest-person-in-us-again/), and Elon Musk, who has been topping the list for the most days.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if the difference in billion USD between the net worth of Elon Musk and the highest other net worth, as displayed on Forbes' [Real-Time Billionaires list](https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#212c10853d78) on January 1, 2025, is greater than or equal to $40 billion and less than or equal to $70 billion. (Forecasters please note that at the time of this question, November 6, 2024, Elon Musk was listed as having a net worth of $264.7 billion, while the highest other net worth, in this case that of Jeff Bezos, was $216.5 billion. Thus the difference is $48.2 billion.)", "fine_print": "If the Real-Time Billionaires list is not available on January 1, 2025, this question will be resolved as the first day for which it is available.", "post_id": 29792, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1731165401.849993, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.29 ], "centers": [ 0.45 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.617 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1731165401.849993, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.29 ], "centers": [ 0.45 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.617 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.55, 0.45 ], "means": [ 0.44715483881593765 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3660118313347263, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0119155536391702, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22827012898946356, 1.3913848916034106, 0.0, 0.153865828537011, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2581744010322857, 0.0, 2.3233596267654817, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03911858530021452, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11525585627893538, 0.030893002561247163, 0.07073615502467667, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4087506853414205, 0.17630000022929448, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8146146600035022, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15720225121530507, 0.0, 0.29095551644889905, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1245482170322532, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5059112341124612, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "spot_baseline_score": 13.750352374993504, "baseline_score": 5.097155345956728, "peer_score": 25.763213970102, "coverage": 0.9900371490750048, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9900371490750048, "spot_peer_score": 24.436766584929664, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 13.750352374993504, "baseline_archived_score": 5.097155345956728, "peer_archived_score": 25.763213970102, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 24.436766584929664 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 61, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Forbes maintains the [Real-Time Billionaires list](https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires), a daily-updated ranking the world's wealthiest individuals based on net worth. Much of the day-to-day movements are linked with the individuals' holdings in publicly-traded companies. Year to date, the top spot has been variously held by [Bernard Arnault](https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesfarrell/2024/01/26/bernard-arnault-overtakes-elon-musk-as-richest-person-in-the-world/), [Jeff Bezos](https://www.forbes.com/sites/mollybohannon/2024/03/08/elon-musk-falls-behind-jeff-bezos-as-richest-person-in-us-again/), and Elon Musk, who has been topping the list for the most days." }, { "id": 29791, "title": "Will Elon Musk’s net worth differ from the highest other net worth on the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires list by greater than zero and less than $40 billion as of January 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-elon-musks-net-worth-differ-from-the-highest-other-net-worth-on-the-forbes-real-time-billionaires-list-by-greater-than-zero-and-less-than-40-billion-as-of-january-1-2025", "author_id": 126626, "author_username": "skmmcj", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-08T14:19:42.776148Z", "published_at": "2024-11-08T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:53.033860Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 57, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-09T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-09T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T01:14:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-08T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 27, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29643, "title": "Will Elon Musk’s net worth differ from the highest other net worth on the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires list by greater than zero and less than $40 billion as of January 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2024-11-08T14:19:42.776148Z", "open_time": "2024-11-08T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-09T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-09T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T01:14:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-02T01:32:14.433348Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-09T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-09T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.4308, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Forbes maintains the [Real-Time Billionaires list](https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires), a daily-updated ranking the world's wealthiest individuals based on net worth. Much of the day-to-day movements are linked with the individuals' holdings in publicly-traded companies. Year to date, the top spot has been variously held by [Bernard Arnault](https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesfarrell/2024/01/26/bernard-arnault-overtakes-elon-musk-as-richest-person-in-the-world/), [Jeff Bezos](https://www.forbes.com/sites/mollybohannon/2024/03/08/elon-musk-falls-behind-jeff-bezos-as-richest-person-in-us-again/), and Elon Musk, who has been topping the list for the most days.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if the difference in billion USD between the net worth of Elon Musk and the highest other net worth, as displayed on Forbes' [Real-Time Billionaires list](https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#212c10853d78) on January 1, 2025, is greater than $0 and less than $40 billion. (Forecasters please note that at the time of this question, November 6, 2024, Elon Musk was listed as having a net worth of $264.7 billion, while the highest other net worth, in this case that of Jeff Bezos, was $216.5 billion. Thus the difference is $48.2 billion.)", "fine_print": "If the Real-Time Billionaires list is not available on January 1, 2025, this question will be resolved as the first day for which it is available.", "post_id": 29791, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1731165402.555603, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.17 ], "centers": [ 0.24225000000000002 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35100000000000003 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1731165402.555603, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.17 ], "centers": [ 0.24225000000000002 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35100000000000003 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.7577499999999999, 0.24225000000000002 ], "means": [ 0.30224456114936893 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.30235531220200856, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8909077480008096, 0.13082761184065436, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6701049752490269, 0.0, 0.11123030328809189, 0.26629006976841835, 0.0, 0.0, 0.26913429480391504, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.1236397891384178, 0.4726591128108092, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.8480102698817724, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6030611589824652, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23351825246045652, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07805035281635142, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9074353916842878, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "spot_baseline_score": 59.97938521222419, "baseline_score": 62.61715132801352, "peer_score": 5.619727886645759, "coverage": 0.9880788719571297, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9880788719571297, "spot_peer_score": 6.562001002619051, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 59.97938521222419, "baseline_archived_score": 62.61715132801352, "peer_archived_score": 5.619727886645759, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 6.562001002619051 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 56, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Forbes maintains the [Real-Time Billionaires list](https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires), a daily-updated ranking the world's wealthiest individuals based on net worth. Much of the day-to-day movements are linked with the individuals' holdings in publicly-traded companies. Year to date, the top spot has been variously held by [Bernard Arnault](https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesfarrell/2024/01/26/bernard-arnault-overtakes-elon-musk-as-richest-person-in-the-world/), [Jeff Bezos](https://www.forbes.com/sites/mollybohannon/2024/03/08/elon-musk-falls-behind-jeff-bezos-as-richest-person-in-us-again/), and Elon Musk, who has been topping the list for the most days." }, { "id": 29790, "title": "Will Elon Musk’s net worth be less than or equal to the highest other net worth on the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires list as of January 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-elon-musks-net-worth-be-less-than-or-equal-to-the-highest-other-net-worth-on-the-forbes-real-time-billionaires-list-as-of-january-1-2025", "author_id": 126626, "author_username": "skmmcj", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-08T14:19:42.769072Z", "published_at": "2024-11-08T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:51.316903Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 64, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-09T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-09T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T01:14:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-08T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 28, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29642, "title": "Will Elon Musk’s net worth be less than or equal to the highest other net worth on the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires list as of January 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2024-11-08T14:19:42.769072Z", "open_time": "2024-11-08T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-09T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-09T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T01:14:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-02T01:19:27.256346Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-09T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-09T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.4308, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Forbes maintains the [Real-Time Billionaires list](https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires), a daily-updated ranking the world's wealthiest individuals based on net worth. Much of the day-to-day movements are linked with the individuals' holdings in publicly-traded companies. Year to date, the top spot has been variously held by [Bernard Arnault](https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesfarrell/2024/01/26/bernard-arnault-overtakes-elon-musk-as-richest-person-in-the-world/), [Jeff Bezos](https://www.forbes.com/sites/mollybohannon/2024/03/08/elon-musk-falls-behind-jeff-bezos-as-richest-person-in-us-again/), and Elon Musk, who has been topping the list for the most days.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if the difference in billion USD between the net worth of Elon Musk and the highest other net worth, as displayed on Forbes' [Real-Time Billionaires list](https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#212c10853d78) on January 1, 2025, is less than or equal to zero. (Forecasters please note that at the time of this question, November 6, 2024, Elon Musk was listed as having a net worth of $264.7 billion, while the highest other net worth, in this case that of Jeff Bezos, was $216.5 billion. Thus the difference is $48.2 billion.)", "fine_print": "If the Real-Time Billionaires list is not available on January 1, 2025, this question will be resolved as the first day for which it is available.", "post_id": 29790, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1731165403.07858, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.134 ], "centers": [ 0.20074999999999998 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3298261665796465 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1731165403.07858, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.134 ], "centers": [ 0.20074999999999998 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3298261665796465 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.79925, 0.20074999999999998 ], "means": [ 0.22116033282075084 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13877826550189343, 0.0, 0.5482154774436659, 0.44071068269949837, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8209209246244972, 0.037197912973893646, 0.21228082485103633, 0.35033622771640044, 0.0, 1.0201305074820077, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6753507208774424, 0.7471400545026624, 0.0, 1.1511267221247974, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11805427025014043, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.2748574657272404, 0.0, 0.8292058060887075, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3935277555318061, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3108648595307786, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.028454418737632672, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "spot_baseline_score": 67.67187441184333, "baseline_score": 68.64858845725523, "peer_score": 10.245961808918414, "coverage": 0.9861988698608345, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9861988698608345, "spot_peer_score": 7.4042216895506465, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 67.67187441184333, "baseline_archived_score": 68.64858845725523, "peer_archived_score": 10.245961808918414, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 7.4042216895506465 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 68, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Forbes maintains the [Real-Time Billionaires list](https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires), a daily-updated ranking the world's wealthiest individuals based on net worth. Much of the day-to-day movements are linked with the individuals' holdings in publicly-traded companies. Year to date, the top spot has been variously held by [Bernard Arnault](https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesfarrell/2024/01/26/bernard-arnault-overtakes-elon-musk-as-richest-person-in-the-world/), [Jeff Bezos](https://www.forbes.com/sites/mollybohannon/2024/03/08/elon-musk-falls-behind-jeff-bezos-as-richest-person-in-us-again/), and Elon Musk, who has been topping the list for the most days." }, { "id": 29789, "title": "Will 12-15 U.S. federal executive department heads be announced by the incoming administration between the election and December 16, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-12-15-us-federal-executive-department-heads-be-announced-by-the-incoming-administration-between-the-election-and-december-16-2024", "author_id": 126626, "author_username": "skmmcj", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-08T14:19:42.761890Z", "published_at": "2024-11-08T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:25.095666Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 70, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-09T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-09T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-16T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-01T21:38:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-08T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 28, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29641, "title": "Will 12-15 U.S. federal executive department heads be announced by the incoming administration between the election and December 16, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-11-08T14:19:42.761890Z", "open_time": "2024-11-08T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-09T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-09T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-16T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-01T21:38:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-12-01T21:39:20.958642Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-09T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-09T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.4011, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Following presidential elections in the U.S., new or re-elected presidents announce changes to [the cabinet](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cabinet_of_the_United_States) as part of their transition or continued administration. The Cabinet has 26 members: the vice president, 15 federal executive department heads, and 10 Cabinet-level officials.\r\n\r\nThe announcement of the department heads usually happen in the first 10 weeks following election day, but vary in terms of specific timing—from Nixon in 1968 who announced all positions in the six weeks following election day, to Biden in 2020 who announced the three final positions on January 7, 2021 (approximately nine weeks following election day).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if the total number of federal executive department heads officially announced as nominees by the new U.S. President-elect or their transition team after November 5, 2024, and before December 16, 2024, is 12-15 out of the total of 15 (listed in the Fine Print) according to credible sources. 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The Cabinet has 26 members: the vice president, 15 federal executive department heads, and 10 Cabinet-level officials.\r\n\r\nThe announcement of the department heads usually happen in the first 10 weeks following election day, but vary in terms of specific timing—from Nixon in 1968 who announced all positions in the six weeks following election day, to Biden in 2020 who announced the three final positions on January 7, 2021 (approximately nine weeks following election day).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if the total number of federal executive department heads officially announced as nominees by the new U.S. President-elect or their transition team after November 5, 2024, and before December 16, 2024, is 10-11 out of the total of 15 (listed in the Fine Print) according to credible sources. 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The Cabinet has 26 members: the vice president, 15 federal executive department heads, and 10 Cabinet-level officials.\r\n\r\nThe announcement of the department heads usually happen in the first 10 weeks following election day, but vary in terms of specific timing—from Nixon in 1968 who announced all positions in the six weeks following election day, to Biden in 2020 who announced the three final positions on January 7, 2021 (approximately nine weeks following election day).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if the total number of federal executive department heads officially announced as nominees by the new U.S. President-elect or their transition team after November 5, 2024, and before December 16, 2024, is 8-9 out of the total of 15 (listed in the Fine Print) according to credible sources. 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The Cabinet has 26 members: the vice president, 15 federal executive department heads, and 10 Cabinet-level officials.\r\n\r\nThe announcement of the department heads usually happen in the first 10 weeks following election day, but vary in terms of specific timing—from Nixon in 1968 who announced all positions in the six weeks following election day, to Biden in 2020 who announced the three final positions on January 7, 2021 (approximately nine weeks following election day).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if the total number of federal executive department heads officially announced as nominees by the new U.S. President-elect or their transition team after November 5, 2024, and before December 16, 2024, is 6-7 out of the total of 15 (listed in the Fine Print) according to credible sources. 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The Cabinet has 26 members: the vice president, 15 federal executive department heads, and 10 Cabinet-level officials.\r\n\r\nThe announcement of the department heads usually happen in the first 10 weeks following election day, but vary in terms of specific timing—from Nixon in 1968 who announced all positions in the six weeks following election day, to Biden in 2020 who announced the three final positions on January 7, 2021 (approximately nine weeks following election day).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if the total number of federal executive department heads officially announced as nominees by the new U.S. President-elect or their transition team after November 5, 2024, and before December 16, 2024, is 4-5 out of the total of 15 (listed in the Fine Print) according to credible sources. 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The Cabinet has 26 members: the vice president, 15 federal executive department heads, and 10 Cabinet-level officials.\r\n\r\nThe announcement of the department heads usually happen in the first 10 weeks following election day, but vary in terms of specific timing—from Nixon in 1968 who announced all positions in the six weeks following election day, to Biden in 2020 who announced the three final positions on January 7, 2021 (approximately nine weeks following election day).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if the total number of federal executive department heads officially announced as nominees by the new U.S. President-elect or their transition team after November 5, 2024, and before December 16, 2024, is 0-3 out of the total of 15 (listed in the Fine Print) according to credible sources. 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He also [used to have](https://en.chessbase.com/post/ding-liren-profile-2024-fide) the longest unbeaten streak of 100 games, until Carsen surpassed it. Gukesh D has his own [set of achievements](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gukesh_Dommaraju), being the third-youngest grandmaster in history, the third-youngest to reach a chess rating of 2700, the youngest to reach a rating of 2750, the youngest Candidates Tournament winner and the youngest contender to compete for the World Championship.\n\nThe match will be best of 14 games; a score of at least 7½ would win the world championship. If the score is equal after 14 games, tiebreak games with faster time controls will be played. \n\nIn chess a win is 1 point and a draw is ½ point with a high tendency towards draws at the highest level.\n\nThe time control for each game in the classical portion of the match is 120 minutes per side for the first 40 moves and 30 minutes for the rest of the game, with a 30-second increment per move starting with move 41.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if either player in the 2024 World Chess Championship match reaches 7.5 points before the 11th classical game (e.g. by winning 5 games and drawing another 5).\n\nThis question will also resolve as **Yes** if for any other reason the 2024 Chess Champion is declared by FIDE before the 11th classical game is played (e.g. a player forteits the match or is disqualified during the match).", "fine_print": "* If the match is played by any other players than Ding Liren and Gukesh Dommaraju, the question will be **Annulled**.\n* If the result of the game 10 is not known by 7 January 2025 (and the 2024 Chess Champion is still not declared by that date) the question will resolve as **Ambiguous**.\n* If the results of one or more of the first 10 games are annulled, then these games are not included in the count of the games for the resolution. This includes the case when both players receive 0 points for the game for violating Fair Play policy.\n* If the 2024 Chess Champion title is later revoked (e.g. due to revealed fact of cheating), it will not affect the question resolution.", "post_id": 29783, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1731165407.245849, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1760890956589915 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1731165407.245849, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1760890956589915 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8, 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.24157887820358312 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.05830818042997517, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6309503161533445, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.028454418737632672, 0.0, 1.095341538877721, 0.24207219377702496, 1.6753507208774425, 0.0, 0.3975489187576947, 0.6463598751923936, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2748574657272404, 0.27888529401405443, 0.0, 0.7471400545026624, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7722824265171543, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9575220324078878, 0.35033622771640044, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3935277555318061, 0.0, 0.5482154774436659, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 62.86321497104277, "peer_score": 1.129690769204417, "coverage": 0.9847575360757334, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9847575360757334, "spot_peer_score": 5.158475789550196, "spot_baseline_score": 67.80719051126377, "baseline_archived_score": 62.86321497104277, "peer_archived_score": 1.129690769204417, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 5.158475789550196, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 67.80719051126377 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 61, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [World Chess Championship 2024](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Chess_Championship_2024) match between the reigning world champion Ding Liren (Rating: 2728 as of 1 Nov 2024) and the challenger Gukesh Dommaraju (Rating: 2783 as of 1 Nov 2024) is set to take place between 25 November and 13 December 2024, in Singapore.\n\nAs of November 1st, 2024, Ding Liren is [23rd in the world](https://2700chess.com/), but was in the top 5 for 6 consecutive years, reaching as high as #2, with his top rating being the 12th highest in the history of chess. He also [used to have](https://en.chessbase.com/post/ding-liren-profile-2024-fide) the longest unbeaten streak of 100 games, until Carsen surpassed it. Gukesh D has his own [set of achievements](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gukesh_Dommaraju), being the third-youngest grandmaster in history, the third-youngest to reach a chess rating of 2700, the youngest to reach a rating of 2750, the youngest Candidates Tournament winner and the youngest contender to compete for the World Championship.\n\nThe match will be best of 14 games; a score of at least 7½ would win the world championship. If the score is equal after 14 games, tiebreak games with faster time controls will be played. \n\nIn chess a win is 1 point and a draw is ½ point with a high tendency towards draws at the highest level.\n\nThe time control for each game in the classical portion of the match is 120 minutes per side for the first 40 moves and 30 minutes for the rest of the game, with a 30-second increment per move starting with move 41." }, { "id": 29709, "title": "Will a bilateral ceasefire be announced in the Ukraine war, before April 19, 2025?", "short_title": "Ceasefire announced in Ukraine war, before Apr 19, 2025?", "url_title": "Ceasefire announced in Ukraine war, before Apr 19, 2025?", "slug": "ceasefire-announced-in-ukraine-war-before-apr-19-2025", "author_id": 107440, "author_username": "Shmebulock123", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-07T14:57:46.874101Z", "published_at": "2024-11-18T02:53:33.893301Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:02.514633Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-11-18T02:53:33.893299Z", "comment_count": 36, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-04-18T21:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-18T21:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-19T21:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-20T10:25:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-19T02:53:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 124, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32601, "name": "2024-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 29570, "title": "Will a bilateral ceasefire be announced in the Ukraine war, before April 19, 2025?", "created_at": "2024-11-07T14:57:46.874184Z", "open_time": "2024-11-19T02:53:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-23T02:53:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-23T02:53:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-19T21:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-20T10:25:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-20T10:43:21.826461Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-18T21:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-04-18T21:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Following Donald Trump's victory in the 2024 U.S. presidential election, speculation has intensified about the prospects for ending the Russia-Ukraine war. Throughout his campaign, Trump repeatedly claimed he could end the conflict within 24 hours of taking office, though without specifying how.\n\nTrump's recent interactions with key leaders have been notable. He met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in September 2024 at Trump Tower, later describing him as \"the greatest salesman in the world.\" After winning the election, Trump reportedly spoke with both Zelenskyy (in a call that included Elon Musk discussing continued Starlink support) and Russian President Vladimir Putin. However, the Kremlin has denied that the Putin call took place, calling reports from The Washington Post \"pure fiction.\"\n\nMultiple peace proposals are reportedly under consideration by Trump's team, including a potential 800-mile demilitarized zone. Some NATO members, like Slovakia, have begun openly questioning continued military support for Ukraine, while others remain committed. Meanwhile, Russia faces mounting demographic pressures from military losses exceeding 710,000 troops and a severe birth rate crisis.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if an armistice or a ceasefire is announced by both Ukraine and Russia before April 19, 2025. This will count if it applies to the majorities of combatants on both the Russian and Ukrainian sides. The ceasefire or armistice must apply to all military operations in all official and disputed Ukrainian and Russian territory. In other words, a limited ceasefire (such as granting safety to humanitarian corridors or specific regions) is insufficient to resolve the question as **Yes**.\n\nThe specific date that such an agreement will take effect is not relevant to the resolution of this question. The only requirement is that the agreement must be announced before April 19, 2025", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 29709, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1745009922.471457, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 122, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.003 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1745009922.471457, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 122, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.003 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.015792442527224143 ], "histogram": [ [ 17.844555813110652, 0.9165459553295501, 0.17897578260371433, 0.32224313894623013, 0.08197366253810018, 0.4340527003356607, 0.0, 0.011243979008062928, 0.0, 0.04757913200217416, 0.20006947592028845, 0.0013972838105430912, 0.00288217922828825, 0.0002700417739929749, 0.0975331332886056, 0.036723441506067336, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.009060823301631058, 0.010413832392830353, 0.0002249551056478572, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004351017127430924, 0.0, 0.07729858391098846, 0.006988115953420445, 0.0, 0.04177982718483109, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0009856045077656645, 0.04194679945847873, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0001336019708263641, 0.0005873969440456353, 0.039473759645460266, 0.0, 0.0, 0.000149338795229685, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.013073642680744822, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.021037539028857785, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.009636119626624608, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05133889217848073, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.016290750488732433, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.028380691447699308, 0.008226760038416934, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03709038087587196 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 73.97724521476171, "peer_score": 25.93334989638331, "coverage": 0.9993285980431686, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9993285980431686, "spot_peer_score": 43.393398789456896, "spot_baseline_score": 31.034012061215048, "baseline_archived_score": 73.97724521476171, "peer_archived_score": 25.93334989638331, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 43.393398789456896, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 31.034012061215048 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 13, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 513, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Following Donald Trump's victory in the 2024 U.S. presidential election, speculation has intensified about the prospects for ending the Russia-Ukraine war. Throughout his campaign, Trump repeatedly claimed he could end the conflict within 24 hours of taking office, though without specifying how.\n\nTrump's recent interactions with key leaders have been notable. He met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in September 2024 at Trump Tower, later describing him as \"the greatest salesman in the world.\" After winning the election, Trump reportedly spoke with both Zelenskyy (in a call that included Elon Musk discussing continued Starlink support) and Russian President Vladimir Putin. However, the Kremlin has denied that the Putin call took place, calling reports from The Washington Post \"pure fiction.\"\n\nMultiple peace proposals are reportedly under consideration by Trump's team, including a potential 800-mile demilitarized zone. Some NATO members, like Slovakia, have begun openly questioning continued military support for Ukraine, while others remain committed. Meanwhile, Russia faces mounting demographic pressures from military losses exceeding 710,000 troops and a severe birth rate crisis." }, { "id": 29707, "title": "Will China's youth unemployment rate be greater than 19.0 for October 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-chinas-youth-unemployment-rate-be-greater-than-190-for-october-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-07T14:18:32.965530Z", "published_at": "2024-11-07T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:00.123483Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 69, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-08T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-08T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-11-17T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-29T10:49:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-07T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 32, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29569, "title": "Will China's youth unemployment rate be greater than 19.0 for October 2024?", "created_at": "2024-11-07T14:18:32.965530Z", "open_time": "2024-11-07T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-08T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-08T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-11-17T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-29T10:49:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-11-29T10:55:53.080465Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-08T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-08T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.4644, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "China's youth unemployment rate, which measures the percentage of people aged 16 to 24 who are not in school and are unemployed, has been a growing concern for the country's policymakers and economists. In July 2024, the rate [soared to 17.1%](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/20/chinas-youth-unemployment-soars-above-17percent-in-july.html), the highest level since the new system of record-keeping began in December 2023.\r\n\r\nThe new calculation method, introduced in late 2023, excludes those who are still in school, as more people in China are pursuing higher education amid a more competitive job market. Under the previous calculation method, the youth unemployment rate had reached a record high of 21.3% in June 2023.\r\n\r\nThe rising youth unemployment rate has been attributed to various factors, including the ongoing economic challenges, the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, and structural changes in the labor market. As the issue continues to draw attention, this question aims to predict the youth unemployment rate for August 2024, providing insight into the short-term trajectory of this critical economic indicator.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the youth unemployment rate for October 2024, as reported by [Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/china/youth-unemployment-rate), using data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China.", "fine_print": "The youth unemployment rate is defined as the percentage of the labor force aged 16-24 without work but available for and seeking employment, based on the calculation method used by the National Bureau of Statistics of China as of August 2024.\r\n\r\nIf the National Bureau of Statistics of China revises its calculation method or age range for the youth unemployment rate before September 2024, the question will be resolved using the most up-to-date definition and methodology.\r\n\r\nIn the event that Trading Economics does not report the youth unemployment rate for August 2024 before October 7, 2024, or if the data is not available from the National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS), the question will resolve as \"Annulled\". The data can be found [directly from the NBS here](https://data.stats.gov.cn/english/easyquery.htm?cn=A01) by selecting \"The Urban Surveyed Unemployment Rate\" under \"Indicators\" on the left side and observing the data in the row labeled \"The Urban Surveyed Unemployment Rate of the Population Aged from 16 to 24 Excluding Students(%)\".", "post_id": 29707, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1731079594.707033, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.271 ], "centers": [ 0.41 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6182950625185978 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1731079594.707033, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.271 ], "centers": [ 0.41 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6182950625185978 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5900000000000001, 0.41 ], "means": [ 0.4533489537699691 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16798662710965054, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0492373430437701, 0.08253138866588176, 0.02581358824615143, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8211966440574795, 0.38043555332875517, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14731282932738304, 0.6806380132487615, 0.0, 0.24311673443421403, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7245194417864564, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8225198698346389, 0.0, 0.6308407491715394, 0.0, 0.0, 0.019746017729336655, 0.19073805166550978, 0.0, 0.014369596090439076, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.46866138545748215, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09630553750946041, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9147633448549574, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5184797798380378, 0.8355804261814468, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7175450017305025, 0.0, 0.0, 0.27308960725456716, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 37.14669205936086, "peer_score": 7.344304104773105, "coverage": 0.9966494893751763, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9966494893751763, "spot_peer_score": 1.9640772819814323, "spot_baseline_score": 23.878685958711674, "baseline_archived_score": 37.14669205936086, "peer_archived_score": 7.344304104773105, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 1.9640772819814323, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 23.878685958711674 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 67, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "China's youth unemployment rate, which measures the percentage of people aged 16 to 24 who are not in school and are unemployed, has been a growing concern for the country's policymakers and economists. In July 2024, the rate [soared to 17.1%](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/20/chinas-youth-unemployment-soars-above-17percent-in-july.html), the highest level since the new system of record-keeping began in December 2023.\r\n\r\nThe new calculation method, introduced in late 2023, excludes those who are still in school, as more people in China are pursuing higher education amid a more competitive job market. Under the previous calculation method, the youth unemployment rate had reached a record high of 21.3% in June 2023.\r\n\r\nThe rising youth unemployment rate has been attributed to various factors, including the ongoing economic challenges, the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, and structural changes in the labor market. As the issue continues to draw attention, this question aims to predict the youth unemployment rate for August 2024, providing insight into the short-term trajectory of this critical economic indicator." }, { "id": 29706, "title": "Will China's youth unemployment rate be greater than 18.0 and less than or equal to 19.0 for October 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-chinas-youth-unemployment-rate-be-greater-than-180-and-less-than-or-equal-to-190-for-october-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-07T14:18:32.952699Z", "published_at": "2024-11-07T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:03.401617Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 69, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-08T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-08T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-11-17T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-29T10:49:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-07T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 33, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29568, "title": "Will China's youth unemployment rate be greater than 18.0 and less than or equal to 19.0 for October 2024?", "created_at": "2024-11-07T14:18:32.952699Z", "open_time": "2024-11-07T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-08T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-08T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-11-17T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-29T10:49:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-11-29T10:54:53.472825Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-08T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-08T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.4644, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "China's youth unemployment rate, which measures the percentage of people aged 16 to 24 who are not in school and are unemployed, has been a growing concern for the country's policymakers and economists. In July 2024, the rate [soared to 17.1%](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/20/chinas-youth-unemployment-soars-above-17percent-in-july.html), the highest level since the new system of record-keeping began in December 2023.\r\n\r\nThe new calculation method, introduced in late 2023, excludes those who are still in school, as more people in China are pursuing higher education amid a more competitive job market. Under the previous calculation method, the youth unemployment rate had reached a record high of 21.3% in June 2023.\r\n\r\nThe rising youth unemployment rate has been attributed to various factors, including the ongoing economic challenges, the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, and structural changes in the labor market. As the issue continues to draw attention, this question aims to predict the youth unemployment rate for August 2024, providing insight into the short-term trajectory of this critical economic indicator.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the youth unemployment rate for October 2024, as reported by [Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/china/youth-unemployment-rate), using data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China.\r\nThe question will resolve based on the reported youth unemployment rate, rounded to the nearest 0.1 percentage point.", "fine_print": "The youth unemployment rate is defined as the percentage of the labor force aged 16-24 without work but available for and seeking employment, based on the calculation method used by the National Bureau of Statistics of China as of August 2024.\r\n\r\nIf the National Bureau of Statistics of China revises its calculation method or age range for the youth unemployment rate before September 2024, the question will be resolved using the most up-to-date definition and methodology.\r\n\r\nIn the event that Trading Economics does not report the youth unemployment rate for August 2024 before October 7, 2024, or if the data is not available from the National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS), the question will resolve as \"Annulled\". The data can be found [directly from the NBS here](https://data.stats.gov.cn/english/easyquery.htm?cn=A01) by selecting \"The Urban Surveyed Unemployment Rate\" under \"Indicators\" on the left side and observing the data in the row labeled \"The Urban Surveyed Unemployment Rate of the Population Aged from 16 to 24 Excluding Students(%)\".", "post_id": 29706, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1731079595.357138, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.34953018076212755 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.49 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1731079595.357138, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.34953018076212755 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.49 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6504698192378724, 0.34953018076212755 ], "means": [ 0.3630968272990781 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.018087904224968542, 0.0, 0.0, 0.037065342746035734, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9003576980789284, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17472138726266326, 0.0, 0.6269174966488804, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1538804463707397, 0.0, 0.6664425488133069, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5711913265204748, 0.0, 0.029941953078415226, 0.0, 0.47494197203925326, 0.013162951709963655, 0.0, 0.08429992477307431, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2801509562747174, 1.0, 0.6980965657768824, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8379487954001852, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6356799761664509, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5778677609141162, 0.38723206162456447, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10223706135307076, 0.11777121751898838, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.35796670004844944, 0.0, 0.2501577142572954, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9160279542388619, 0.0, 0.088218564506665, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 52.88949603498989, "peer_score": 9.371021904366417, "coverage": 0.9964129057416212, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9964129057416212, "spot_peer_score": 0.6858071727277744, "spot_baseline_score": 37.95540248597555, "baseline_archived_score": 52.88949603498989, "peer_archived_score": 9.371021904366417, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.6858071727277744, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 37.95540248597555 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 68, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "China's youth unemployment rate, which measures the percentage of people aged 16 to 24 who are not in school and are unemployed, has been a growing concern for the country's policymakers and economists. In July 2024, the rate [soared to 17.1%](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/20/chinas-youth-unemployment-soars-above-17percent-in-july.html), the highest level since the new system of record-keeping began in December 2023.\r\n\r\nThe new calculation method, introduced in late 2023, excludes those who are still in school, as more people in China are pursuing higher education amid a more competitive job market. Under the previous calculation method, the youth unemployment rate had reached a record high of 21.3% in June 2023.\r\n\r\nThe rising youth unemployment rate has been attributed to various factors, including the ongoing economic challenges, the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, and structural changes in the labor market. As the issue continues to draw attention, this question aims to predict the youth unemployment rate for August 2024, providing insight into the short-term trajectory of this critical economic indicator." }, { "id": 29705, "title": "Will China's youth unemployment rate be greater than 17.0 and less than or equal to 18.0 for October 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-chinas-youth-unemployment-rate-be-greater-than-170-and-less-than-or-equal-to-180-for-october-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-07T14:18:32.941037Z", "published_at": "2024-11-07T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:02.166447Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 68, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-08T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-08T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-11-17T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-29T10:49:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-07T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 31, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29567, "title": "Will China's youth unemployment rate be greater than 17.0 and less than or equal to 18.0 for October 2024?", "created_at": "2024-11-07T14:18:32.941037Z", "open_time": "2024-11-07T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-08T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-08T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-11-17T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-29T10:49:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-11-29T10:52:20.351008Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-08T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-08T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.4644, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "China's youth unemployment rate, which measures the percentage of people aged 16 to 24 who are not in school and are unemployed, has been a growing concern for the country's policymakers and economists. In July 2024, the rate [soared to 17.1%](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/20/chinas-youth-unemployment-soars-above-17percent-in-july.html), the highest level since the new system of record-keeping began in December 2023.\r\n\r\nThe new calculation method, introduced in late 2023, excludes those who are still in school, as more people in China are pursuing higher education amid a more competitive job market. Under the previous calculation method, the youth unemployment rate had reached a record high of 21.3% in June 2023.\r\n\r\nThe rising youth unemployment rate has been attributed to various factors, including the ongoing economic challenges, the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, and structural changes in the labor market. As the issue continues to draw attention, this question aims to predict the youth unemployment rate for August 2024, providing insight into the short-term trajectory of this critical economic indicator.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the youth unemployment rate for October 2024, as reported by [Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/china/youth-unemployment-rate), using data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China.\r\nThe question will resolve based on the reported youth unemployment rate, rounded to the nearest 0.1 percentage point.", "fine_print": "The youth unemployment rate is defined as the percentage of the labor force aged 16-24 without work but available for and seeking employment, based on the calculation method used by the National Bureau of Statistics of China as of August 2024.\r\n\r\nIf the National Bureau of Statistics of China revises its calculation method or age range for the youth unemployment rate before September 2024, the question will be resolved using the most up-to-date definition and methodology.\r\n\r\nIn the event that Trading Economics does not report the youth unemployment rate for August 2024 before October 7, 2024, or if the data is not available from the National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS), the question will resolve as \"Annulled\". The data can be found [directly from the NBS here](https://data.stats.gov.cn/english/easyquery.htm?cn=A01) by selecting \"The Urban Surveyed Unemployment Rate\" under \"Indicators\" on the left side and observing the data in the row labeled \"The Urban Surveyed Unemployment Rate of the Population Aged from 16 to 24 Excluding Students(%)\".", "post_id": 29705, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1731079596.05992, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4104496473529786 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1731079596.05992, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4104496473529786 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5, 0.5 ], "means": [ 0.5198775940497318 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.021585930219435643, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.46211900267680595, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.41588412507835687, 0.0, 0.20851081619995687, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07996585971873116, 0.4494095263612121, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07670684254184146, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3844015774009883, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9134389029481002, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.28304800047084083, 0.015708539450405595, 0.5123307444416587, 0.0, 0.1405470336200478, 0.859514143920603, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0704403910564275, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9233232736225633, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5950100330818252, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2358265416482139, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 20.712430337697207, "peer_score": 22.542316939024094, "coverage": 0.9961674974196487, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9961674974196487, "spot_peer_score": 5.85221395128212, "spot_baseline_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 20.712430337697207, "peer_archived_score": 22.542316939024094, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 5.85221395128212, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 0.0 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 66, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "China's youth unemployment rate, which measures the percentage of people aged 16 to 24 who are not in school and are unemployed, has been a growing concern for the country's policymakers and economists. In July 2024, the rate [soared to 17.1%](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/20/chinas-youth-unemployment-soars-above-17percent-in-july.html), the highest level since the new system of record-keeping began in December 2023.\r\n\r\nThe new calculation method, introduced in late 2023, excludes those who are still in school, as more people in China are pursuing higher education amid a more competitive job market. Under the previous calculation method, the youth unemployment rate had reached a record high of 21.3% in June 2023.\r\n\r\nThe rising youth unemployment rate has been attributed to various factors, including the ongoing economic challenges, the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, and structural changes in the labor market. As the issue continues to draw attention, this question aims to predict the youth unemployment rate for August 2024, providing insight into the short-term trajectory of this critical economic indicator." }, { "id": 29704, "title": "Will China's youth unemployment rate be less than or equal to 17.0 for October 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-chinas-youth-unemployment-rate-be-less-than-or-equal-to-170-for-october-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-07T14:18:32.932566Z", "published_at": "2024-11-07T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:56.826454Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 73, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-08T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-08T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-11-17T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-26T23:26:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-07T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 32, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29566, "title": "Will China's youth unemployment rate be less than or equal to 17.0 for October 2024?", "created_at": "2024-11-07T14:18:32.932566Z", "open_time": "2024-11-07T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-08T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-08T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-11-17T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-26T23:26:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-11-26T23:30:51.763536Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-08T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-08T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.4644, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "China's youth unemployment rate, which measures the percentage of people aged 16 to 24 who are not in school and are unemployed, has been a growing concern for the country's policymakers and economists. In July 2024, the rate [soared to 17.1%](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/20/chinas-youth-unemployment-soars-above-17percent-in-july.html), the highest level since the new system of record-keeping began in December 2023.\r\n\r\nThe new calculation method, introduced in late 2023, excludes those who are still in school, as more people in China are pursuing higher education amid a more competitive job market. Under the previous calculation method, the youth unemployment rate had reached a record high of 21.3% in June 2023.\r\n\r\nThe rising youth unemployment rate has been attributed to various factors, including the ongoing economic challenges, the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, and structural changes in the labor market. As the issue continues to draw attention, this question aims to predict the youth unemployment rate for August 2024, providing insight into the short-term trajectory of this critical economic indicator.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the youth unemployment rate for October 2024, as reported by [Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/china/youth-unemployment-rate), using data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China.\r\nThe question will resolve based on the reported youth unemployment rate, rounded to the nearest 0.1 percentage point.", "fine_print": "The youth unemployment rate is defined as the percentage of the labor force aged 16-24 without work but available for and seeking employment, based on the calculation method used by the National Bureau of Statistics of China as of August 2024.\r\n\r\nIf the National Bureau of Statistics of China revises its calculation method or age range for the youth unemployment rate before September 2024, the question will be resolved using the most up-to-date definition and methodology.\r\n\r\nIn the event that Trading Economics does not report the youth unemployment rate for August 2024 before October 7, 2024, or if the data is not available from the National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS), the question will resolve as \"Annulled\". The data can be found [directly from the NBS here](https://data.stats.gov.cn/english/easyquery.htm?cn=A01) by selecting \"The Urban Surveyed Unemployment Rate\" under \"Indicators\" on the left side and observing the data in the row labeled \"The Urban Surveyed Unemployment Rate of the Population Aged from 16 to 24 Excluding Students(%)\".", "post_id": 29704, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1731079596.742272, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.3932655713197247 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.54 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1731079596.742272, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.3932655713197247 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.54 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6067344286802753, 0.3932655713197247 ], "means": [ 0.3952892904836334 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.014369596090439076, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.46866138545748215, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.27308960725456716, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07016860785683743, 0.422729524609672, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9147633448549574, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5846608062937566, 0.0, 0.12856727458371708, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0584906856474188, 0.5184797798380378, 0.14731282932738304, 0.019746017729336655, 0.0, 0.040463113133740285, 0.0, 0.2505180157755323, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6308407491715394, 0.0, 0.6939525952509218, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21572547604369705, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23997539470927987, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1425264508242785, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9645726878676757, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02581358824615143, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 45.78741335453527, "peer_score": 17.657306581101967, "coverage": 0.9957497759246166, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9957497759246166, "spot_peer_score": 5.056201566056149, "spot_baseline_score": 27.91370834309294, "baseline_archived_score": 45.78741335453527, "peer_archived_score": 17.657306581101967, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 5.056201566056149, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 27.91370834309294 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 67, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "China's youth unemployment rate, which measures the percentage of people aged 16 to 24 who are not in school and are unemployed, has been a growing concern for the country's policymakers and economists. In July 2024, the rate [soared to 17.1%](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/20/chinas-youth-unemployment-soars-above-17percent-in-july.html), the highest level since the new system of record-keeping began in December 2023.\r\n\r\nThe new calculation method, introduced in late 2023, excludes those who are still in school, as more people in China are pursuing higher education amid a more competitive job market. Under the previous calculation method, the youth unemployment rate had reached a record high of 21.3% in June 2023.\r\n\r\nThe rising youth unemployment rate has been attributed to various factors, including the ongoing economic challenges, the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, and structural changes in the labor market. As the issue continues to draw attention, this question aims to predict the youth unemployment rate for August 2024, providing insight into the short-term trajectory of this critical economic indicator." }, { "id": 29703, "title": "Will West Virginia have 1.4 million or more residents living in drought on December 31, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-west-virginia-have-14-million-or-more-residents-living-in-drought-on-december-31-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-11-07T14:18:32.785684Z", "published_at": "2024-11-07T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:19.592844Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 66, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-08T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-08T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T01:24:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-07T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 32, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32506, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/q4-cover_5EtbdhX.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", "close_date": "2025-01-08T19:25:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-08T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T08:47:04.289472Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 29565, "title": "Will West Virginia have 1.4 million or more residents living in drought on December 31, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-11-07T14:18:32.785684Z", "open_time": "2024-11-07T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-08T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-08T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T01:24:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-01T01:25:10.838917Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-08T15:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-08T15:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[West Virginia facing worst drought in at least two decades](https://www.climate.gov/news-features/event-tracker/west-virginia-facing-worst-drought-least-two-decades)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Drought Monitor at [this link](https://www.drought.gov/states/west-virginia) lists greater than or equal to 1.4 million West Virginia residents in areas of drought, when the link is accessed by Metaculus on or after December 31, 2024. If the number is below 1.4 million, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "No other resolution source will be considered. The question will resolve as soon as the page is accessed by Metaculus Admins on the resolution date. However, if there are issues accessing the page, then resolution will wait up to January 7, 2025, at which point if Metaculus has still not been able to access the resolution source, this question will be **annulled**.", "post_id": 29703, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1731079597.451706, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6416666666666667 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1731079597.451706, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6416666666666667 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.19999999999999996, 0.8 ], "means": [ 0.7367157634543318 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0492373430437701, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 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