98.415 | Will Donald Trump spend at least one hour confined in a jail cell before January 1, 2024? | Binary |
97.810 | Will Western institutions determine Israel was responsible for the attack on the Al-Ahli Baptist Hospital in Gaza City before 2024? | Binary |
97.315 | Which party will win the most seats in the Dutch parliamentary elections of 2023? (D66) | Binary |
97.315 | Which party will win the most seats in the Dutch parliamentary elections of 2023? (BBB) | Binary |
96.993 | Will France send their military to intervene in the Gabonese coup in 2023? | Binary |
96.146 | Will the United States default on its sovereign debt before July 1, 2023? | Binary |
93.325 | Will there be a military conflict between Serbia and Kosovo before January 1, 2024? | Binary |
90.735 | Will Venezuela invade Guyana before these dates? (2024) | Binary |
85.670 | Will there be a confirmed case of Marburg virus in Algeria by July 28th? | Binary |
84.260 | Will Ukraine have de facto control of the Tokmak railway station on January 1, 2024? | Binary |
83.926 | Will Mohamed Bazoum, Nigerien President, return to power before August 31, 2023? | Binary |
82.832 | Will ECOWAS launch a military intervention in Niger before August 12, 2023? | Binary |
81.360 | Will the Black Sea grain deal be revived before October 1, 2023? | Binary |
80.322 | Will the Palestinian Authority declare itself bankrupt before the end of 2023? | Binary |
80.259 | Will the Wagner Group control a part of Moscow by July 1, 2023? | Binary |
77.844 | Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker until 2024? | Binary |
77.351 | Will Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg engage in a cage fight at any point before 2024? | Binary |
76.920 | Will Stepanakert / Khankendi be under de facto Azerbaijani control on September 30, 2023? | Binary |
73.620 | Will there be more than 10 ministerial resignations in Rishi Sunak’s government before 2024? | Binary |
73.483 | Will Ukraine regain control of central Bakhmut by the end of September 2023? | Binary |
72.605 | Will the Chandrayaan-3 lander soft-land on the moon? | Binary |
70.541 | Will at least one mink farm worker die from any strain of bird flu in 2023? | Binary |
69.878 | How many people will die in the Sudan conflict in 2023? | Continuous |
69.729 | Will Putin attend the G20 summit in India? | Binary |
68.012 | Will New Delhi experience a "Very Unhealthy" or worse air quality index on at least four of the seven days for the week starting October 29? | Binary |
66.913 | Will a US spot Ethereum ETF be approved in 2023? | Binary |
64.214 | Who will win the 2023 Argentine presidential election? (Juan Schiaretti) | Binary |
64.214 | Who will win the 2023 Argentine presidential election? (Myriam Bregman) | Binary |
63.545 | Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Law and Justice (PiS)) | Binary |
62.653 | Will Italy lose its investment-grade credit rating in May 2023? | Binary |
62.423 | Who will win the 2023 Argentine presidential election? (Patricia Bullrich) | Binary |
59.685 | Will Donald Trump participate in the first Republican presidential debate? | Binary |
57.989 | Before 2024, will the US government state that Iran likely helped Hamas plan the October 7 attack on Israel? | Binary |
57.043 | Will the Black Sea grain deal be extended before July 19, 2023? | Binary |
56.246 | Before October 1, 2023, will US Senator Bob Menendez announce that he is resigning? | Binary |
55.816 | Will Cristina Fernández de Kirchner present herself as a candidate for an elective office in the 2023 Argentine national elections? | Binary |
51.876 | Will India's Chandrayaan-3 mission successfully land a rover on the moon? | Binary |
51.039 | Will Santiago Peña win the Paraguayan presidential election on April 30th? | Binary |
50.608 | Short Fuse: Will the 'Titan' submersible be recovered intact by noon ET on Thursday, June 22? | Binary |
49.954 | Which party will win the most seats in the Dutch parliamentary elections of 2023? (CDA) | Binary |
49.146 | [Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Andy Biggs (R)) | Binary |
49.146 | [Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Jim Banks (R)) | Binary |
49.145 | [Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Don Bacon (R)) | Binary |
49.145 | [Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Donald Trump (R)) | Binary |
49.145 | [Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Byron Donalds (R)) | Binary |
49.145 | [Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Fred Upton (R)) | Binary |
49.144 | [Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Kevin Hern (R)) | Binary |
49.144 | [Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Nancy Mace (R)) | Binary |
49.144 | [Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Elise Stefanik (R)) | Binary |
49.144 | [Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Hakeem Jeffries (D)) | Binary |
48.727 | [Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Kevin McCarthy (R)) | Binary |
48.659 | Will there be a major conflict involving an external actor in Transnistria before July 1, 2023? | Binary |
47.440 | Will the agreement between the Kremlin and the Wagner Group hold through the end of June? | Binary |
45.819 | Will copper prices reach an all-time-high in 2023? | Binary |
45.402 | [Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Tom Emmer (R)) | Binary |
42.259 | Will Tesla's market cap be greater than $1 trillion before July 1, 2023? | Binary |
41.736 | Will Israel launch a large-scale ground offensive into Gaza before November 1, 2023? | Binary |
40.788 | Will the UN Security Council adopt a resolution related to the Nagorno Karabakh conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia before October 1, 2023? | Binary |
39.764 | Will there be a white Christmas in at least 4 of these 9 large European cities in 2023? | Binary |
37.597 | [Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Patrick McHenry (R)) | Binary |
35.167 | Which party will win the most seats in the Dutch parliamentary elections of 2023? (NSC) | Binary |
34.933 | Will there be a US military combat death in the Red Sea before 2024? | Binary |
34.786 | Who will win the 2023 Argentine presidential election? (Sergio Massa) | Binary |
32.433 | Will a bill be introduced in the Indian Parliament to change the official name of the country to Bharat before September 23, 2023? | Binary |
32.320 | Will Israeli forces reach the Palestinian Legislative Council building in Gaza before the listed dates? (January 1, 2024) | Binary |
30.706 | Will civil war break out in Israel before 2024? | Binary |
30.332 | Will Yevgeny Prigozhin be the functional leader of the Wagner Group on June 30, 2023? | Binary |
28.687 | What rating will Bethesda's video game Starfield have on Steam two weeks after release? | Continuous |
28.191 | Who will win the 2023 Argentine presidential election? (Javier Milei) | Binary |
26.275 | Will Google integrate Large Language Model responses directly into Search before August 1, 2023? | Binary |
25.658 | Will an Elon Musk-funded AI lab release an LLM before 2024? | Binary |
25.426 | Will NASA re-establish communications with Voyager 1 before 1 Jan 2024? | Binary |
23.149 | Will a majority of voters approve Venezuela's referendum on incorporating Guayana Esequiba into Venezuela? | Binary |
20.025 | Will a NATO country commit to sending at least one F-16 fighter jet to Ukraine before 2024? | Binary |
15.620 | Will a nationwide UPS strike be underway in the United States on August 4, 2023? | Binary |
14.535 | [Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Steve Scalise (R)) | Binary |
14.180 | Will a US warship enter the Black Sea before September 25, 2023? | Binary |
9.445 | Will OpenAI report having ≥99.9% uptime for ChatGPT in June 2023? | Binary |
7.493 | Will Yevgeny V. Prigozhin be confirmed to be dead before November 2023? | Binary |
4.473 | Will Delhi perform cloud seeding before December 1, 2023? | Binary |
2.978 | Will there be 400 or more deaths due to armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before 2024? | Binary |
2.717 | [Short Fuse] Will a vote on the motion to vacate be held before October 4, 2023? | Binary |
1.344 | Will Amritpal Singh be in Indian custody before April 21, 2023? | Binary |
1.230 | [Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Brian Fitzpatrick (R)) | Binary |
1.230 | [Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Mike Johnson (R)) | Binary |
1.230 | [Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Lee Zeldin (R)) | Binary |
1.229 | [Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Tom Cole (R)) | Binary |
1.229 | [Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Austin Scott (R)) | Binary |
1.006 | Will Bitcoin reach $40,000 before January 1, 2024? | Binary |
0.541 | Will the German Train Drivers' Union (GDL) go on strike again before January 1, 2024? | Binary |
0.163 | Will there be a Twitter outage resulting in no tweets for more than 60 minutes before July 1, 2023? | Binary |
0.030 | Will Ed Sheeran be found liable for copyright infringement in 'Let's Get It On' lawsuit? | Binary |
- | Will the House Oversight Committee receive access to requested Joe Biden records related to Hunter Biden’s Ukraine dealings before September 1st? | Binary |
-2.878 | Which party will win the most seats in the Dutch parliamentary elections of 2023? (PvdA-GL) | Binary |
-3.994 | Will there be a US government shutdown before January 1, 2024? | Binary |
-8.815 | Which party will win the most seats in the Dutch parliamentary elections of 2023? (VVD) | Binary |
-9.640 | Will Apple announce a Virtual Reality headset at WWDC in 2023? | Binary |
-12.054 | Will Meta launch a Threads web app before October 1, 2023? | Binary |
-12.202 | Will the Dow Jones close at or above 35,000 before August 1, 2023? | Binary |
-13.157 | Will ECOWAS intervene militarily in Niger before October 1, 2023? | Binary |
-15.083 | Will General Sergei Surovikin be stripped of his command by July 11th? | Binary |
-15.183 | Will Starship achieve liftoff before Monday, May 1st, 2023? | Binary |
-18.761 | Will a major shipping company announce that they are resuming shipments through the Red Sea before 2024? | Binary |
-25.321 | Will the MONUSCO UN peacekeeping mission to the Democratic Republic of the Congo be extended with a military personnel ceiling above 11,000 before January 1, 2024? | Binary |
-25.329 | Will Yahya Sinwar cease to act as Hamas Chief in the Gaza Strip before 2024? | Binary |
-32.154 | Will Samsung make Bing the default search provider on Galaxy phones before October 1st, 2023? | Binary |
-35.273 | What will be the search engine market share of Bing in December of 2023? | Continuous |
-37.266 | [Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Jim Jordan (R)) | Binary |
-37.921 | Will Hamas lose control of Gaza before 2024? | Binary |
-60.671 | Will an additional country ban ChatGPT before July 1, 2023? | Binary |
-69.046 | Will Virgin Galactic have a successful commercial flight before July 1, 2023? | Binary |
-91.222 | Will Kevin McCarthy be Speaker of the House on January 1, 2024? | Binary |
-111.508 | Will Trump lose in the E. Jean Carroll sexual assault case? | Binary |
-198.281 | What will the price of November 2023 Dutch TTF natural gas futures (in Euros per megawatt-hour) be on September 29, 2023? | Continuous |
-557.306 | Which party will win the most seats in the Dutch parliamentary elections of 2023? (PVV) | Binary |