galen

User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2022 - 2023

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

8.52	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
51.735	Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2023?	Binary
45.957	Will Microsoft acquire Activision Blizzard by June 30, 2023?	Binary
44.040	In 2023, will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit?	Binary
42.067	How much foreign aid will the US provide Ukraine in 2022?	Continuous
38.243	What will Russia's nominal GDP be in 2022, in trillions of USD?	Continuous
37.955	Will Georgia impose sanctions against Russia before 2024?	Binary
36.651	In 2023, will an image model win Scott Alexander’s bet on compositionality, to Edwin Chen’s satisfaction?	Binary
36.336	In 2023 will there be more than 25 million confirmed COVID cases in China?	Binary
34.917	What percentage of Russian GDP will be spent on military expenses in 2022?	Continuous
33.102	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Philadelphia Eagles)	Binary
32.835	Will a member of the Chinese Politburo be expelled or arrested in 2022 or 2023?	Binary
31.660	How many Internally Displaced Ukrainians will be estimated by the UN in 2022?	Continuous
31.563	If the Australian "Indigenous Voice to Parliament" Referendum is held before 2026, what percent of voters will vote in favor?	Continuous
31.475	Will a major nuclear power plant in Germany be operational on June 1, 2023?	Binary
30.472	Will Twitter make verification generally available before July 2023?	Binary
30.456	Will China reverse its decision to ban financial institutions from trading and engaging in cryptocurrency transactions before 2024?	Binary
28.708	How many Russian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (50,000)	Binary
28.197	What will core PCE and the max unemployment rate be at the end of 2023? (UR < 4.5%, core PCE ≥ 3%)	Binary
27.895	Will the US unemployment rate be above 4% in November 2023?	Binary
27.657	Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join NATO before 2024?	Binary
26.838	Will Russia control any formerly Ukrainian territories other than LNR, DNR, or Crimea on January 1, 2024?	Binary
26.789	What will be the Levelized Cost of Energy Storage in 2022?	Continuous
26.639	Will there be a publicly reported cyberattack against the global navigation satellite systems between April 1, 2022 and May 31, 2023?	Binary
26.597	In 2023 will a successful deepfake attempt causing real damage make the front page of a major news source?	Binary
26.304	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Kansas City Chiefs)	Binary
25.254	In 2023 will a new version of COVID be substantially able to escape Omicron vaccines?	Binary
25.112	What will be the number of unmanned aircraft sightings (UAS) in 2022?	Continuous
24.241	Will Bitcoin end 2023 above $30,000?	Binary
23.765	Will Russia start another wave of mobilization before the following dates? (July 1, 2023)	Binary
23.611	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Zaporizhzhia?	Binary
22.976	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Dallas Cowboys)	Binary
22.308	Will pediatric cases of hepatitis with unknown origin be conclusively linked to adenovirus infection?	Binary
22.262	Will US CPI inflation for 2023 average above 4%?	Binary
20.773	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Ron DeSantis is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
20.707	Americas Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Haiti)	Binary
19.959	Will China have approved cultivated meat for human consumption by 2024?	Binary
19.851	Will China reverse its ban on bitcoin mining and trading before 2024?	Binary
19.742	Will Shanghai continue to subsidize up to 30% of investment in semiconductor materials and equipment projects within the city until 2024?	Binary
19.115	If the Australian "Indigenous Voice to Parliament" Referendum is held before 2026, will it pass?	Binary
19.052	Will personal ID authentication be obligatory for new Twitter accounts on July 1, 2023?	Binary
18.922	Will Brendan Fraser win an Oscar in 2023?	Binary
18.667	Will Holden win his Bet with Zvi about Omicron, conditional on one of them winning?	Binary
18.458	In 2023 will AI win a programming competition?	Binary
18.024	Which of these US infrastructure sectors will be hit by a ransomware attack by May 30, 2023? (Gas/Oil Pipeline)	Binary
17.961	Will the Crimean Bridge be knocked out for seven days before 2024?	Binary
17.598	Will Ukraine have a security guarantee from another country before 2024?	Binary
16.998	Will COVID kill at least 50% as many people in 2023 as it did in 2022?	Binary
16.796	Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?	Binary
16.495	Will Finland join NATO before 2024?	Binary
16.234	Will Russia start another wave of mobilization before the following dates? (March 1, 2023)	Binary
16.149	Will the TSA extend or reimpose a mask mandate on public transportation before 2024?	Binary
15.887	Will Vladimir Putin be the president of the Russian Federation on February 1, 2023?	Binary
15.599	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (San Francisco 49ers)	Binary
15.065	Will Iran disempower its Guidance Patrol "modesty police" before 2024?	Binary
14.834	Will Ukraine officially recognize a former Ukrainian territory as independent before 2024?	Binary
14.687	Will China get involved in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict by 2024?	Binary
14.680	Will Russia capture or surround a large Ukrainian city before June 1, 2023?	Binary
14.677	Will Ukraine have de facto control of at least 90% of the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts on January 1, 2024?	Binary
14.487	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
14.395	What percentage of US GDP will be spent on military expenses in 2022?	Continuous
14.073	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Manchester City)	Binary
14.007	Will a grant recipient of the FTX Foundation have their grant funds frozen, seized, or demanded back? (January 1, 2024)	Binary
13.670	Will cost of living riots happen in the UK before March 1, 2023?	Binary
13.569	When will the next major bridge collapse occur in the USA?	Continuous
13.514	Will the Kakhovka dam be breached before May 2023?	Binary
13.465	What proportion of NATO member states, excluding the USA, will increase their real 2023 defense spending by at least 25 % compared to 2022?	Continuous
13.353	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Green Bay Packers)	Binary
13.253	Will Donald Trump post a new tweet before March 1, 2023?	Binary
13.248	Will there be more than 4 deaths between Russia and NATO forces outside of Ukraine before July 1, 2023?	Binary
12.999	Will PredictIt be open for trading in the US on March 16, 2023?	Binary
12.992	Will pediatric cases of hepatitis with unknown origin be conclusively linked to COVID vaccination?	Binary
12.933	On January 1, 2024, will any FAANG or Musk company accept crypto as a payment?	Binary
12.808	Will the US Supplemental Poverty Measure be higher in 2022 than 2021?	Binary
12.719	Will Ukraine join the European Union before 2024?	Binary
12.447	Will the UN open an investigation or otherwise intervene on the issue of the Xinjiang internment camps before 2024?	Binary
12.200	What will core PCE and the max unemployment rate be at the end of 2023? (UR ≥ 4.5%, core PCE < 3%)	Binary
11.950	Will Russia be the world's most sanctioned country on February 22, 2023?	Binary
11.835	West Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Ghana)	Binary
11.640	How many Ukrainian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (25,000)	Binary
11.623	In 2023 will WHO declare a new Global Health Emergency?	Binary
11.576	On January 1, 2024, will there be a lasting cease-fire in the Russia-Ukraine war?	Binary
11.526	Will Ukraine have de facto control of Sevastopol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
11.106	Will OpenAI's ChatGPT be available for free public use on Jan 31, 2023?	Binary
11.084	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Cincinnati Bengals)	Binary
10.713	Will Binance or a subsidiary file for bankruptcy or be sold "under duress" before 2024?	Binary
10.692	Will Holden's Bet with Zvi about Omicron resolve ambiguously?	Binary
10.548	Will Dnipro be under Russian control on June 1, 2023?	Binary
10.537	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Kansas City Chiefs)	Binary
10.477	Will Google or DeepMind release a public interface for a Large Language Model before April 1, 2023?	Binary
10.445	Will a state actor successfully use an ASAT weapon against a foreign satellite before 2024?	Binary
10.342	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Minnesota Vikings)	Binary
10.317	Will Johnny Depp receive a film contract from a major film studio by January 1, 2024?	Binary
10.075	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Liverpool)	Binary
9.701	Will Twitter have a corporate credit rating in the "C"s or worse before July 2023?	Binary
9.620	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (New England Patriots)	Binary
9.580	Will any US state re-implement a general indoor mask mandate before February 1st 2023?	Binary
9.551	Will the Supreme Court overturn California's Proposition 12 in National Pork Producers Council v. Ross before 2024?	Binary
9.540	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Los Angeles Chargers)	Binary
9.399	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Buffalo Bills)	Binary
9.224	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Pittsburgh Steelers)	Binary
9.118	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Sevastopol?	Binary
9.082	Will a coup or regime change take place in Russia in 2022 or 2023?	Binary
9.075	Will Joe Rogan leave Spotify before February 1, 2023?	Binary
8.920	On January 1, 2024, will Joe Biden have a positive (approval minus disapproval) rating?	Binary
8.720	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Washington Commanders)	Binary
8.713	In 2023 will the Supreme Court rule against affirmative action?	Binary
8.707	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Indianapolis Colts)	Binary
8.661	Will Kim Jong-un remain the de facto leader of North Korea until (at least) January 1, 2024?	Binary
8.611	Will there be 36 or more private fusion-energy companies in 2022?	Binary
8.605	Will Israel arm Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
8.428	Will Philip Davis cease to be Prime Minister of the Bahamas before January 1, 2024?	Binary
8.374	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Chelsea)	Binary
8.358	Will Israel impose sanctions on Russia before 2024?	Binary
8.085	Will Ukraine regain control of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant before March 1, 2023?	Binary
8.050	Will Ukraine use American rocket systems against targets on Russian soil before July 2023?	Binary
8.027	Will the US ban TikTok before 2024?	Binary
7.975	Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (New Hope)	Binary
7.891	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (New Orleans Saints)	Binary
7.891	Will China adopt any legislation or regulations to prevent contamination of the environment with antimicrobials by 2024?	Binary
7.733	On January 1, 2024, will Rishi Sunak be Prime Minister of the UK?	Binary
7.608	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Luhansk?	Binary
7.275	Will Peloton file for bankruptcy protection before 2024?	Binary
7.232	Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
7.207	By December 31, 2023, will the courts block any part of the Biden Administration's plan to broadly cancel student debt?	Binary
7.175	In 2023 will Ali Khameini cease to be Supreme Leader of Iran?	Binary
7.172	Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Yesh Atid)	Binary
7.165	Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Joint List)	Binary
7.157	How many FLOPS will be used to train GPT-4 (if it is released)?	Continuous
7.068	Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Likud)	Binary
7.067	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Los Angeles Rams)	Binary
7.034	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize before 2024?	Binary
7.033	Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Yisrael Beiteinu)	Binary
7.016	Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join the EU before 2024?	Binary
7.005	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Manchester United)	Binary
6.965	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Jacksonville Jaguars)	Binary
6.890	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Joe Biden is the most likely Democratic nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
6.724	Will Andrej Babiš win the next Czech Republic presidental election?	Binary
6.673	Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Labor)	Binary
6.631	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Arsenal)	Binary
6.604	Will Bitcoin go up over 2023?	Binary
6.556	Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Zionist Spirit)	Binary
6.552	In 2023, will Tether de-peg?	Binary
6.550	Will Twitter's net income be higher in 2023 than in 2022?	Binary
6.474	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Tottenham Hotspur)	Binary
6.352	In 2023 will the UK hold a general election?	Binary
6.350	In 2023 will someone release "DALL-E, but for videos"?	Binary
6.340	Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
6.297	In 2023 will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan?	Binary
6.212	Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Shas)	Binary
6.166	When will Boris Johnson no longer hold the office of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom?	Continuous
6.042	Does Omicron have a shorter generation interval than Delta?	Binary
5.865	Will Ukraine join NATO before 2024?	Binary
5.850	Will Turkey declare sanctions on Russia before 2024?	Binary
5.823	Depending on the US supplying Ukraine with an ATACMS, Will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (ATACMS provided)	Binary
5.805	Will Tweets be inaccessible on Twitter.com for any seven days starting before 2024?	Binary
5.641	On January 1, 2024, will Vladimir Putin be President of Russia?	Binary
5.635	Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Religious Zionist)	Binary
5.606	Will Russia test a nuclear weapon in the following years? (2023)	Binary
5.601	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Las Vegas Raiders)	Binary
5.600	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Carolina Panthers)	Binary
5.457	Will OpenAI release a public API for programmatically querying ChatGPT before April 1, 2023?	Binary
5.444	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Fulham)	Binary
5.437	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (New York Giants)	Binary
5.415	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Leicester City)	Binary
5.410	Will the US “Rewards for Justice” program pay the $10M reward offered for information on the interference in the 2020 presidential election?	Binary
5.392	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Atlanta Falcons)	Binary
5.369	Will a new Office of Pandemic Preparedness and Response Policy be created if the PREVENT Pandemics Act is made law?	Binary
5.339	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Arizona Cardinals)	Binary
5.306	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Brentford)	Binary
5.277	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Aston Villa)	Binary
5.256	On January 1, 2024, will an ordinary person be able to take a self-driving taxi from Oakland → SF during rush hour?	Binary
5.214	What will be the price of 1 ETH on the following dates? (December 31, 2023)	Continuous
5.180	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Nottingham Forest)	Binary
5.172	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Elon Musk)	Binary
5.065	Depending on Ukraine striking targets in Russian territory, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (Ukraine strikes)	Binary
5.058	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Tennessee Titans)	Binary
5.043	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Crystal Palace)	Binary
4.996	Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Meretz)	Binary
4.935	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Southampton)	Binary
4.928	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Everton)	Binary
4.911	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Houston Texans)	Binary
4.882	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Seattle Seahawks)	Binary
4.874	In 2023 will Donald Trump get indicted on criminal charges?	Binary
4.852	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Detroit Lions)	Binary
4.779	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Gavin Newsom is the most likely Democratic nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
4.729	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (West Ham United)	Binary
4.708	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Denver Broncos)	Binary
4.686	Will Google or DeepMind release an API for a Large Language Model before April 1, 2023?	Binary
4.666	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (David Sacks)	Binary
4.663	Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (UTJ)	Binary
4.656	Will a member of the United States Congress introduce legislation limiting the use of LLMs before January 1, 2024?	Binary
4.584	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Leeds United)	Binary
4.565	In 2023 will Google, Meta, Amazon, or Apple release an AR headset?	Binary
4.523	Will Russia invade Latvia, Lithuania, or Estonia before 2024?	Binary
4.452	Will there be a large-scale radioactive contamination of a German territory by 2024?	Binary
4.311	On January 1, 2024, will Elon Musk remain owner of Twitter?	Binary
4.273	Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2023?	Binary
4.272	Which of these US infrastructure sectors will be hit by a ransomware attack by May 30, 2023? (Aviation)	Binary
4.181	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (New England Patriots)	Binary
4.156	Will a radiological "dirty bomb" be detonated in Ukraine or Russia before 2024?	Binary
4.132	Will certain marble statues removed from Greece in the early 19th century be moved back before 2024?	Binary
4.108	How many Russian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (25,000)	Binary
4.040	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Cincinnati Bengals)	Binary
4.037	Which of these US infrastructure sectors will be hit by a ransomware attack by May 30, 2023? (Meatpacking)	Binary
3.958	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Newcastle United)	Binary
3.926	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Baltimore Ravens)	Binary
3.908	Will Twitter's average monetizable daily users be higher in 2023 than in 2022?	Binary
3.756	Will Russia be removed from the UN Security Council by 2024?	Binary
3.683	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Denver Broncos)	Binary
3.630	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Green Bay Packers)	Binary
3.613	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (New York Jets)	Binary
3.592	Which of these US infrastructure sectors will be hit by a ransomware attack by May 30, 2023? (Nuclear Energy)	Binary
3.585	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Dallas Cowboys)	Binary
3.559	Will Saudi Arabia and Iran restore diplomatic relations by 2024?	Binary
3.524	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Cleveland Browns)	Binary
3.486	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Seattle Seahawks)	Binary
3.373	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Peter Thiel)	Binary
3.344	In 2023 will there be any change in the composition of the Supreme Court?	Binary
3.294	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Los Angeles Chargers)	Binary
3.291	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Carolina Panthers)	Binary
3.285	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Tampa Bay Buccaneers)	Binary
3.234	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Pittsburgh Steelers)	Binary
3.225	Will Peter Daszak be the president of EcoHealth Alliance on January 1, 2024?	Binary
3.220	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (New Orleans Saints)	Binary
3.219	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Chicago Bears)	Binary
3.182	How many satellites will be deployed in 2022?	Continuous
3.154	When will airplane travelers be free from mask mandates in the USA?	Continuous
3.149	In 2023 will any other war have more casualties than Russia-Ukraine?	Binary
3.129	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (San Francisco 49ers)	Binary
3.097	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Washington Commanders)	Binary
3.047	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Sriram Krishnan)	Binary
3.044	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Jason Calacanis)	Binary
3.024	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (New York Giants)	Binary
3.022	In 2023 will a cultured meat product be available in at least one US store or restaurant for less than $30?	Binary
3.006	Will Sam Bankman-Fried return to US soil before February 1, 2023?	Binary
3.001	Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Blue and White)	Binary
2.968	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Miami Dolphins)	Binary
2.954	Will Medvedchuk become president of Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
2.942	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Jacksonville Jaguars)	Binary
2.928	Will a grant recipient of the FTX Foundation have their grant funds frozen, seized, or demanded back? (March 1, 2023)	Binary
2.856	In 2023, what will the cost-effectiveness of the Against Malaria Foundation be, according to GiveWell?	Continuous
2.829	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Steve Davis)	Binary
2.787	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (New York Jets)	Binary
2.773	Will any member of NATO call for Hungary to be expelled before 2024?	Binary
2.733	Will Microsoft integrate Large Language Model responses directly into Bing Search before September 30, 2023?	Binary
2.693	Will it become public that the FBI sought a warrant to launch an operation to disrupt web shells on private computers in 2022?	Binary
2.631	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Lex Fridman)	Binary
2.582	In 2023 will any new country join NATO?	Binary
2.538	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Atlanta Falcons)	Binary
2.498	In 2023 will an issue involving a nuclear power plant in Ukraine require evacuation of a populated area?	Binary
2.458	Will North Korea send 100 or more troops to Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
2.456	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Las Vegas Raiders)	Binary
2.440	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Indianapolis Colts)	Binary
2.434	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Tampa Bay Buccaneers)	Binary
2.429	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Chicago Bears)	Binary
2.375	In 2023 will a nuclear weapon be used in war (ie not a test or accident) and kill at least 10 people?	Binary
2.371	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Detroit Lions)	Binary
2.336	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Brighton & Hove Albion)	Binary
2.316	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Tennessee Titans)	Binary
2.271	Will at least 5 million refugees from Ukraine seek assistance from other countries?	Binary
2.269	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Cleveland Browns)	Binary
2.219	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Wolverhampton Wanderers)	Binary
2.186	What will core PCE and the max unemployment rate be at the end of 2023? (UR < 4.5%, core PCE < 3%)	Binary
2.183	Depending on US/NATO conducting military operations in Ukraine, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (No US/NATO Ops in UA)	Binary
2.171	On January 1, 2024, will the Kerch Bridge be destroyed, such that no vehicle can pass over it?	Binary
2.133	Depending on Ukraine gaining territory in Crimea, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (< 50 km^2)	Binary
2.110	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Minnesota Vikings)	Binary
2.083	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Los Angeles Rams)	Binary
1.966	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Blake Masters)	Binary
1.959	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Miami Dolphins)	Binary
1.957	Will there be a collision or ramming incident between a military vessel or military aircraft of Russia or Belarus, and one of a NATO country, before 2024?	Binary
1.897	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Houston Texans)	Binary
1.896	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Mike Schroepfer)	Binary
1.861	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Bournemouth)	Binary
1.785	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Arizona Cardinals)	Binary
1.685	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Philadelphia Eagles)	Binary
1.624	Depending on Ukraine re-taking control of Kherson, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (Ukrainian Control)	Binary
1.568	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (John Legere)	Binary
1.539	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Jared Kushner)	Binary
1.432	In 2023 will OpenAI release GPT-4?	Binary
1.430	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Sheryl Sandberg)	Binary
1.377	Will the Shanghai index of Chinese stocks go up over 2023?	Binary
1.245	Depending on the US giving Ukraine fighter aircraft, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (No US aircraft)	Binary
1.171	If Russia invades Ukraine, will +1,000 Russian soldiers be killed by Ukrainian forces in 2022 and 2023?	Binary
1.156	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Buffalo Bills)	Binary
0.926	Will the Peoples Democratic Party win the 2023 Nigerian Presidential election?	Binary
0.911	Will the Social Democrats hold a position in government after the next Danish general election?	Binary
0.907	Will the city of Redondo Beach, CA pass a ballot initiative to adopt STAR voting in March 2023?	Binary
0.794	Will a decision be made to start and fund a dedicated and systematic science and technology review process at the 2022 BWC Review Conference?	Binary
0.672	In 2023 will Donald Trump make at least one tweet?	Binary
0.628	Will Texas vote to secede from the United States before 2024?	Binary
0.610	Which of these US infrastructure sectors will be hit by a ransomware attack by May 30, 2023? (Water Treatment)	Binary
0.352	Will Anthropic launch a Large Language Model at the following levels of access before Sept 30, 2023? (Public)	Binary
0.237	Will the US PREVENT Pandemics Act be made into law before February 2023?	Binary
0.205	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Baltimore Ravens)	Binary
0.151	Will Coinbase file for bankruptcy protection before 2024?	Binary
0.087	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Boris Johnson)	Binary
0.035	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Jeremy Hunt)	Binary
0.023	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Penny Mourdant)	Binary
0.014	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Ben Wallace)	Binary
0.010	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Rishi Sunak)	Binary
0.008	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Grant Shapps)	Binary
0.007	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Suella Braverman)	Binary
0.006	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Theresa May)	Binary
-0.231	In 2023 will a nuclear weapon be detonated (including tests and accidents)?	Binary
-0.313	Will a mainstream voice assistant use freeform dialog based on a large language model before end of 2023?	Binary
-0.360	Will OpenAI offer a ChatGPT subscription for less than $25/month before July 1, 2023?	Binary
-0.572	By 2024, will Vladimir Putin be charged with war crimes by the International Criminal Court in connection to the Russian invasion of Ukraine?	Binary
-1.330	What will core PCE and the max unemployment rate be at the end of 2023? (UR ≥ 4.5%, core PCE ≥ 3%)	Binary
-1.334	In 2023, will the S&P 500 index reach a new all-time high?	Binary
-1.525	Will Chase Bank send a notice to customers about updates to its security protocols, referencing the threat of social engineering attacks that can be attributed to LLMs, before 2024?	Binary
-1.664	Will Tsinghua University bar some students from returning to the dorms for the 2023 Spring Semester?	Binary
-2.044	Will the 3.47 second Rubik's Cube world record be broken by July 1, 2023?	Binary
-3.902	Will OPEC raise its forecast for 2023 global oil demand in its January 2023 report?	Binary
-4.484	What percentage of people in low-income countries will have recieved at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine by January 1, 2023?	Continuous
-4.781	When will the CMMC (Cybersecurity Maturity Model Certification) 2.0 rule-making process conclude?	Continuous
-8.453	Will Sweden join NATO before 2024?	Binary
-79.859	When will Zelenskyy next be pictured in a suit on his Instagram?	Continuous