PepeS

User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2022 - 2023

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

8.048	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
210.319	What rank will "Improving Sino-Western Coordination on Global Catastrophic Risk" be on 80,000 Hours's "highest-impact career paths" list on January 1, 2024?	Continuous
124.499	How many surveillance cameras per 1000 people will the most surveilled city in China have in 2023?	Continuous
92.215	How many of the companies in China's 'AI Quartet' (not counting SenseTime) will be public before 2024?	Continuous
68.597	What will be the upper limit of the federal funds target range on the following dates? (June 30, 2023)	Continuous
66.261	How many quantum computing patents will China have filed before 2024?	Continuous
65.442	What will the Rotten Tomatoes audience score of the upcoming Super Mario movie be?	Continuous
63.213	What will be the Council on Foreign Relations' count of conflicts with significant or greater impact on US interests on January 1, 2024?	Continuous
59.229	What will be the upper limit of the federal funds target range on the following dates? (March 31, 2023)	Continuous
57.428	When will Zelenskyy next be pictured in a suit on his Instagram?	Continuous
54.219	What percentage of Russian GDP will be spent on military expenses in 2022?	Continuous
52.930	How much foreign aid will the US provide Ukraine in 2022?	Continuous
49.398	What will be the real price of gas (per gallon, 2022 USD) in the US on the following dates? (April 2023)	Continuous
44.416	Will Russia control any formerly Ukrainian territories other than LNR, DNR, or Crimea on January 1, 2024?	Binary
40.707	In 2023 will a successful deepfake attempt causing real damage make the front page of a major news source?	Binary
40.690	Will pediatric cases of hepatitis with unknown origin be conclusively linked to adenovirus infection?	Binary
40.382	What will be the market cap of Baidu, Alibaba, and Tencent in 2023?	Continuous
38.801	What percentage of US GDP will be spent on military expenses in 2022?	Continuous
38.313	Will Georgia impose sanctions against Russia before 2024?	Binary
36.684	Will Ukraine regain control of at least 50 km^2 of the Crimean Peninsula?	Continuous
36.558	How many recently active Russian flag officers will emigrate from the Russia-aligned sphere before 2024?	Continuous
36.292	In 2023 will Google, Meta, Amazon, or Apple release an AR headset?	Binary
36.037	When will Russia launch a new major land offensive in Ukraine outside of claimed oblasts?	Continuous
35.501	Will a member of the Chinese Politburo be expelled or arrested in 2022 or 2023?	Binary
34.677	Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2023?	Binary
34.644	When will the CMMC (Cybersecurity Maturity Model Certification) 2.0 rule-making process conclude?	Continuous
34.409	What will be the total venture capital funding (in USD) for Anthropic, Adept, Character, Inflection, Conjecture, Cohere, & Huggingface on June 30, 2023?	Continuous
34.315	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Zaporizhzhia?	Binary
33.465	What will be the real price of gas (per gallon, 2022 USD) in the US on the following dates? (October 2023)	Continuous
32.669	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Kansas City Chiefs)	Binary
31.602	Will the US provide Ukraine with any fighter aircraft?	Continuous
30.781	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
30.279	Will there be a publicly reported cyberattack against the global navigation satellite systems between April 1, 2022 and May 31, 2023?	Binary
30.065	Will Shanghai continue to subsidize up to 30% of investment in semiconductor materials and equipment projects within the city until 2024?	Binary
29.961	In 2023 will there be more than 25 million confirmed COVID cases in China?	Binary
29.837	Will a grant recipient of the FTX Foundation have their grant funds frozen, seized, or demanded back? (January 1, 2024)	Binary
29.709	What will Russia's nominal GDP be in 2022, in trillions of USD?	Continuous
29.250	How many papers published in 2023 will discuss metagenomic sequencing?	Continuous
29.012	Will the US Supplemental Poverty Measure be higher in 2022 than 2021?	Binary
28.909	Horizon Scan: How many people will be forcibly displaced in these countries in 2022? (Armenia)	Continuous
28.637	What will be the Council on Foreign Relations' count of conflicts with critical impact on U.S. interests on January 1st, 2024?	Continuous
28.412	What will be the Levelized Cost of Energy Storage in 2022?	Continuous
28.183	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Arizona for these weeks? (January 14)	Continuous
28.128	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Buffalo Bills)	Binary
27.001	Americas Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Haiti)	Binary
26.664	Will China reverse its decision to ban financial institutions from trading and engaging in cryptocurrency transactions before 2024?	Binary
26.575	Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?	Binary
26.468	Will Holden win his Bet with Zvi about Omicron, conditional on one of them winning?	Binary
25.129	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Nottingham Forest)	Continuous
24.188	Will a major nuclear power plant in Germany be operational on June 1, 2023?	Binary
23.923	Does Omicron have a shorter generation interval than Delta?	Binary
23.912	Will OpenAI release a public API for programmatically querying ChatGPT before April 1, 2023?	Binary
23.441	Will the Crimean Bridge be knocked out for seven days before 2024?	Binary
23.163	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Philadelphia Eagles)	Binary
22.908	Will Twitter make verification generally available before July 2023?	Binary
22.547	How many entities will be allowed to use blockchain applications in China by 2024?	Continuous
21.667	What proportion of NATO member states, excluding the USA, will increase their real 2023 defense spending by at least 25 % compared to 2022?	Continuous
21.501	Will the UN open an investigation or otherwise intervene on the issue of the Xinjiang internment camps before 2024?	Binary
21.466	Will Finland join NATO before 2024?	Binary
21.410	What will be the average annual level of PM2.5 in Beijing, China in 2023?	Continuous
21.313	Will Bitcoin end 2023 above $30,000?	Binary
21.044	Will Ukraine have de facto control of at least 90% of the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts on January 1, 2024?	Binary
20.602	Will Google or DeepMind release a public interface for a Large Language Model before April 1, 2023?	Binary
20.457	Will Peter Daszak be the president of EcoHealth Alliance on January 1, 2024?	Binary
20.432	What will core PCE and the max unemployment rate be at the end of 2023? (UR ≥ 4.5%, core PCE < 3%)	Binary
19.556	When will China first reach 250,000 confirmed Covid-19 cases per day?	Continuous
19.386	Will OpenAI's ChatGPT be available for free public use on Jan 31, 2023?	Binary
19.364	Will Ukraine have a security guarantee from another country before 2024?	Binary
19.191	Will Bitcoin go up over 2023?	Binary
19.181	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Los Angeles Chargers)	Binary
19.163	Will Russia capture or surround a large Ukrainian city before June 1, 2023?	Binary
19.008	Will the US supply Ukraine with an Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS)?	Continuous
18.993	Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2023?	Binary
18.986	By December 31, 2023, will the courts block any part of the Biden Administration's plan to broadly cancel student debt?	Binary
18.935	Will there be more than 4 deaths between Russia and NATO forces outside of Ukraine before July 1, 2023?	Binary
18.682	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Manchester City)	Continuous
18.665	West Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Ghana)	Binary
18.567	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (San Francisco 49ers)	Binary
18.448	Horizon Scan: How many people will be forcibly displaced in these countries in 2022? (Azerbaijan)	Continuous
18.401	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Joe Biden is the most likely Democratic nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
18.364	Will a coup or regime change take place in Russia in 2022 or 2023?	Binary
18.299	Will China get involved in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict by 2024?	Binary
17.997	On January 1, 2024, will any FAANG or Musk company accept crypto as a payment?	Binary
17.910	In 2023 will a new version of COVID be substantially able to escape Omicron vaccines?	Binary
17.679	On January 1, 2024, will the Kerch Bridge be destroyed, such that no vehicle can pass over it?	Binary
17.462	When will US or NATO forces conduct military operations in Ukraine or Ukraine's occupied regions?	Continuous
17.432	Will China reverse its ban on bitcoin mining and trading before 2024?	Binary
17.395	On January 1, 2024, will there be a lasting cease-fire in the Russia-Ukraine war?	Binary
17.232	In 2023 will the Supreme Court rule against affirmative action?	Binary
17.117	Will a new Office of Pandemic Preparedness and Response Policy be created if the PREVENT Pandemics Act is made law?	Binary
16.868	Will cost of living riots happen in the UK before March 1, 2023?	Binary
16.709	Will Russia be the world's most sanctioned country on February 22, 2023?	Binary
16.660	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Elon Musk)	Binary
16.518	Will Ukraine officially recognize a former Ukrainian territory as independent before 2024?	Binary
16.319	In 2023 will AI win a programming competition?	Binary
16.313	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize before 2024?	Binary
16.156	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Chelsea)	Continuous
16.020	Will personal ID authentication be obligatory for new Twitter accounts on July 1, 2023?	Binary
16.017	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Dallas Cowboys)	Binary
15.831	Will the US ban TikTok before 2024?	Binary
15.765	Will Israel arm Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
15.721	Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join NATO before 2024?	Binary
15.580	How much oil will Russia produce (in barrels per day) in the following years? (2022)	Continuous
15.511	What will be the annual number of objects launched into space in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
15.457	How many estimated cases of Marburg virus (MARV) will occur globally in 2022?	Continuous
15.380	Will Vladimir Putin be the president of the Russian Federation on February 1, 2023?	Binary
15.249	Will pediatric cases of hepatitis with unknown origin be conclusively linked to COVID vaccination?	Binary
15.059	Will Binance or a subsidiary file for bankruptcy or be sold "under duress" before 2024?	Binary
15.033	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Luhansk?	Binary
14.819	How many Ukrainian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (25,000)	Binary
14.773	Will Joe Rogan leave Spotify before February 1, 2023?	Binary
14.712	In 2023, will Tether de-peg?	Binary
14.642	Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
14.631	In 2023 will WHO declare a new Global Health Emergency?	Binary
14.423	Will Ukraine regain control of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant before March 1, 2023?	Binary
14.282	On January 1, 2024, will Vladimir Putin be President of Russia?	Binary
14.035	Will a state actor successfully use an ASAT weapon against a foreign satellite before 2024?	Binary
13.803	What will be the US 2023 budget (in USD) for the CDC's new Center for Forecasting and Outbreak Analytics?	Continuous
13.730	In 2023 will Donald Trump make at least one tweet?	Binary
13.686	How many Internally Displaced Ukrainians will be estimated by the UN in 2022?	Continuous
13.675	Will any US state re-implement a general indoor mask mandate before February 1st 2023?	Binary
13.658	On January 1, 2024, will Joe Biden have a positive (approval minus disapproval) rating?	Binary
13.520	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Ron DeSantis is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
13.386	Will the Kakhovka dam be breached before May 2023?	Binary
13.379	Will Kim Jong-un remain the de facto leader of North Korea until (at least) January 1, 2024?	Binary
13.323	Will Ukraine join the European Union before 2024?	Binary
13.315	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (New England Patriots)	Binary
13.224	Will the Social Democrats hold a position in government after the next Danish general election?	Binary
13.105	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Sevastopol?	Binary
13.083	On January 1, 2024, will Elon Musk remain owner of Twitter?	Binary
12.864	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (New Orleans Saints)	Binary
12.852	Will Dnipro be under Russian control on June 1, 2023?	Binary
12.678	How many Russian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (50,000)	Binary
12.671	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Pittsburgh Steelers)	Binary
12.656	On January 1, 2024, will Rishi Sunak be Prime Minister of the UK?	Binary
12.611	Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Blue and White)	Binary
12.516	On January 1, 2024, will an ordinary person be able to take a self-driving taxi from Oakland → SF during rush hour?	Binary
12.225	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Indianapolis Colts)	Binary
12.149	In 2023 will Ali Khameini cease to be Supreme Leader of Iran?	Binary
12.007	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Liverpool)	Binary
11.953	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Seattle Seahawks)	Binary
11.546	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these weeks? (January 14)	Continuous
11.290	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Fulham)	Continuous
11.277	Will Microsoft acquire Activision Blizzard by June 30, 2023?	Binary
11.214	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Tottenham Hotspur)	Continuous
10.970	Will Twitter's net income be higher in 2023 than in 2022?	Binary
10.682	When will Ukraine regain control of the city of Kherson?	Continuous
10.390	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Arizona for these weeks? (January 28)	Continuous
10.363	Will Coinbase file for bankruptcy protection before 2024?	Binary
10.248	In 2023 will an issue involving a nuclear power plant in Ukraine require evacuation of a populated area?	Binary
10.245	Will Twitter have a corporate credit rating in the "C"s or worse before July 2023?	Binary
10.207	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these weeks? (January 14)	Continuous
10.110	Depending on Ukraine striking targets in Russian territory, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (Ukraine strikes)	Binary
10.026	Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
9.939	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Washington Commanders)	Binary
9.872	In 2023 will the UK hold a general election?	Binary
9.863	Will Brendan Fraser win an Oscar in 2023?	Binary
9.853	Depending on the US supplying Ukraine with an ATACMS, Will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (ATACMS provided)	Binary
9.825	Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Yesh Atid)	Binary
9.778	How many goals will Erling Haaland score in the Premier League 2022/23 season?	Continuous
9.692	Will the US “Rewards for Justice” program pay the $10M reward offered for information on the interference in the 2020 presidential election?	Binary
9.562	Will Russia test a nuclear weapon in the following years? (2023)	Binary
9.345	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these weeks? (February 11)	Continuous
9.204	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Carolina Panthers)	Binary
9.144	In 2023 will Donald Trump get indicted on criminal charges?	Binary
9.088	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Aston Villa)	Continuous
9.025	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Philadelphia Eagles)	Binary
8.991	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Tottenham Hotspur)	Binary
8.940	Will North Korea send 100 or more troops to Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
8.887	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Manchester United)	Binary
8.881	In 2023 will there be any change in the composition of the Supreme Court?	Binary
8.803	Will any member of NATO call for Hungary to be expelled before 2024?	Binary
8.741	Will China adopt any legislation or regulations to prevent contamination of the environment with antimicrobials by 2024?	Binary
8.607	Will US CPI inflation for 2023 average above 4%?	Binary
8.510	When will Boris Johnson no longer hold the office of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom?	Continuous
8.237	When will airplane travelers be free from mask mandates in the USA?	Continuous
8.196	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Atlanta Falcons)	Binary
8.189	In 2023 will someone release "DALL-E, but for videos"?	Binary
8.024	What will core PCE and the max unemployment rate be at the end of 2023? (UR < 4.5%, core PCE < 3%)	Binary
7.979	Will Tweets be inaccessible on Twitter.com for any seven days starting before 2024?	Binary
7.964	In 2023 will a nuclear weapon be detonated (including tests and accidents)?	Binary
7.868	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Arizona Cardinals)	Binary
7.848	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these weeks? (January 28)	Continuous
7.839	How many parameters will the latest version of the Chinese Wu Dao AI model have before 2024?	Continuous
7.811	In 2023 will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan?	Binary
7.765	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Miami Dolphins)	Binary
7.714	How many satellites will be deployed in 2022?	Continuous
7.700	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Dallas Cowboys)	Binary
7.633	In 2023, will the S&P 500 index reach a new all-time high?	Binary
7.516	Which of these US infrastructure sectors will be hit by a ransomware attack by May 30, 2023? (Gas/Oil Pipeline)	Binary
7.487	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Las Vegas Raiders)	Binary
7.441	Will COVID kill at least 50% as many people in 2023 as it did in 2022?	Binary
7.367	What will be the UK's annual inflation rate in the following years? (2022)	Continuous
7.255	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Chelsea)	Binary
7.150	Will Turkey declare sanctions on Russia before 2024?	Binary
6.894	Will a radiological "dirty bomb" be detonated in Ukraine or Russia before 2024?	Binary
6.887	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Buffalo Bills)	Binary
6.884	What will real GDP growth (using the seasonally adjusted annual rate) be in the United States in the following quarters? (2023 Q2)	Continuous
6.863	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Cincinnati Bengals)	Binary
6.774	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Cleveland Browns)	Binary
6.598	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Gavin Newsom is the most likely Democratic nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
6.589	When will the next major bridge collapse occur in the USA?	Continuous
6.444	How much oil will Venezuela produce in 2022?	Continuous
6.409	Which of these US infrastructure sectors will be hit by a ransomware attack by May 30, 2023? (Nuclear Energy)	Binary
6.353	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Arizona for these weeks? (February 11)	Continuous
6.340	Will Holden's Bet with Zvi about Omicron resolve ambiguously?	Binary
6.295	Will China have approved cultivated meat for human consumption by 2024?	Binary
6.236	Will Israel impose sanctions on Russia before 2024?	Binary
6.224	Will Ukraine join NATO before 2024?	Binary
6.127	Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join the EU before 2024?	Binary
6.116	Will there be a large-scale radioactive contamination of a German territory by 2024?	Binary
6.094	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Detroit Lions)	Binary
6.085	Will Ukraine have de facto control of Sevastopol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
6.074	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Jason Calacanis)	Binary
6.056	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Houston Texans)	Binary
5.998	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Leicester City)	Binary
5.856	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (New York Jets)	Binary
5.825	How many FLOPS will be used to train GPT-4 (if it is released)?	Continuous
5.747	Will Russia be removed from the UN Security Council by 2024?	Binary
5.740	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Denver Broncos)	Binary
5.721	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Fulham)	Binary
5.671	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Sriram Krishnan)	Binary
5.614	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these weeks? (January 14)	Continuous
5.579	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Aston Villa)	Binary
5.531	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Brentford)	Binary
5.530	If the Australian "Indigenous Voice to Parliament" Referendum is held before 2026, what percent of voters will vote in favor?	Continuous
5.451	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (David Sacks)	Binary
5.427	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Nottingham Forest)	Binary
5.426	Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (New Hope)	Binary
5.361	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Steve Davis)	Binary
5.322	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Crystal Palace)	Binary
5.296	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Cincinnati Bengals)	Binary
5.274	By 2024, will Vladimir Putin be charged with war crimes by the International Criminal Court in connection to the Russian invasion of Ukraine?	Binary
5.252	Will Russia invade Latvia, Lithuania, or Estonia before 2024?	Binary
5.233	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (West Ham United)	Binary
5.222	Which of these US infrastructure sectors will be hit by a ransomware attack by May 30, 2023? (Meatpacking)	Binary
5.179	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Everton)	Binary
5.173	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Southampton)	Binary
5.114	Will Sam Bankman-Fried return to US soil before February 1, 2023?	Binary
5.074	How many Russian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (25,000)	Binary
5.050	Depending on the US giving Ukraine fighter aircraft, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (No US aircraft)	Binary
5.020	Will certain marble statues removed from Greece in the early 19th century be moved back before 2024?	Binary
4.909	What will the seasonally adjusted month over month headline CPI inflation be in the United States in the following months? (Nov-23)	Continuous
4.884	What will China's Corruption Perception Index level be in 2023?	Continuous
4.867	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (San Francisco 49ers)	Binary
4.843	Depending on US/NATO conducting military operations in Ukraine, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (No US/NATO Ops in UA)	Binary
4.839	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Chicago Bears)	Binary
4.788	Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Labor)	Binary
4.784	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Peter Thiel)	Binary
4.772	In 2023 will any new country join NATO?	Binary
4.762	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Leeds United)	Binary
4.701	Which of these US infrastructure sectors will be hit by a ransomware attack by May 30, 2023? (Water Treatment)	Binary
4.694	Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Joint List)	Binary
4.656	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Newcastle United)	Binary
4.654	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Baltimore Ravens)	Binary
4.619	Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Shas)	Binary
4.609	What will the seasonally adjusted month over month headline CPI inflation be in the United States in the following months? (Oct-23)	Continuous
4.440	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Los Angeles Rams)	Binary
4.438	Will Microsoft integrate Large Language Model responses directly into Bing Search before September 30, 2023?	Binary
4.261	In 2023 will any other war have more casualties than Russia-Ukraine?	Binary
4.243	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Minnesota Vikings)	Binary
4.087	Depending on Ukraine gaining territory in Crimea, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (< 50 km^2)	Binary
4.084	What will core PCE and the max unemployment rate be at the end of 2023? (UR ≥ 4.5%, core PCE ≥ 3%)	Binary
4.035	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these weeks? (January 28)	Continuous
4.030	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (New England Patriots)	Binary
3.986	Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Meretz)	Binary
3.942	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Lex Fridman)	Binary
3.820	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Tennessee Titans)	Binary
3.814	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Brentford)	Continuous
3.774	Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Yisrael Beiteinu)	Binary
3.695	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Pittsburgh Steelers)	Binary
3.684	Depending on Ukraine re-taking control of Kherson, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (Ukrainian Control)	Binary
3.658	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Seattle Seahawks)	Binary
3.550	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Miami Dolphins)	Binary
3.543	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (New Orleans Saints)	Binary
3.522	In 2023 will a nuclear weapon be used in war (ie not a test or accident) and kill at least 10 people?	Binary
3.482	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Blake Masters)	Binary
3.337	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Carolina Panthers)	Binary
3.307	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Chicago Bears)	Binary
3.271	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Crystal Palace)	Continuous
3.240	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Mike Schroepfer)	Binary
3.170	Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Religious Zionist)	Binary
3.102	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Washington Commanders)	Binary
3.100	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (New York Giants)	Binary
3.093	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Tennessee Titans)	Binary
3.043	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Arizona Cardinals)	Binary
3.041	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Las Vegas Raiders)	Binary
3.018	Will Anthropic launch a Large Language Model at the following levels of access before Sept 30, 2023? (Public)	Binary
3.001	In 2023, what will the cost-effectiveness of the Against Malaria Foundation be, according to GiveWell?	Continuous
2.975	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Denver Broncos)	Binary
2.944	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Jacksonville Jaguars)	Binary
2.892	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Leicester City)	Continuous
2.856	In 2023 will OpenAI release GPT-4?	Binary
2.835	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Detroit Lions)	Binary
2.832	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Arsenal)	Binary
2.831	Will Medvedchuk become president of Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
2.808	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (New York Jets)	Binary
2.796	Will OpenAI offer a ChatGPT subscription for less than $25/month before July 1, 2023?	Binary
2.667	Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (UTJ)	Binary
2.615	What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Feb-23)	Continuous
2.613	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Los Angeles Chargers)	Binary
2.605	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Atlanta Falcons)	Binary
2.587	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Brighton & Hove Albion)	Binary
2.498	Which of these US infrastructure sectors will be hit by a ransomware attack by May 30, 2023? (Aviation)	Binary
2.391	Will Iran disempower its Guidance Patrol "modesty police" before 2024?	Binary
2.383	Will at least 5 million refugees from Ukraine seek assistance from other countries?	Binary
2.359	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Wolverhampton Wanderers)	Binary
2.328	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Jared Kushner)	Binary
2.282	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (John Legere)	Binary
2.183	Will Donald Trump post a new tweet before March 1, 2023?	Binary
2.180	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Sheryl Sandberg)	Binary
2.146	What will Asana's market cap be on December 1, 2023?	Continuous
2.138	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Houston Texans)	Binary
2.095	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Cleveland Browns)	Binary
2.003	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Bournemouth)	Binary
1.986	What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Oct-23)	Continuous
1.969	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Indianapolis Colts)	Binary
1.847	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (West Ham United)	Continuous
1.831	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Tampa Bay Buccaneers)	Binary
1.774	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these weeks? (January 28)	Continuous
1.728	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Green Bay Packers)	Binary
1.659	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Manchester City)	Binary
1.550	Will Texas vote to secede from the United States before 2024?	Binary
1.514	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Los Angeles Rams)	Binary
1.448	How many FAO domestic food price warnings in spring 2023?	Continuous
1.160	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Liverpool)	Continuous
1.147	What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Aug-23)	Continuous
1.096	What will core PCE and the max unemployment rate be at the end of 2023? (UR < 4.5%, core PCE ≥ 3%)	Binary
0.988	In 2023 will a cultured meat product be available in at least one US store or restaurant for less than $30?	Binary
0.911	If Russia invades Ukraine, will +1,000 Russian soldiers be killed by Ukrainian forces in 2022 and 2023?	Binary
0.711	When will GPT-4 be announced?	Continuous
0.592	What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Sep-23)	Continuous
0.466	Horizon Scan: How many people will be forcibly displaced in these countries in 2022? (Haiti)	Continuous
0.375	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these weeks? (January 28)	Continuous
0.337	What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Mar-23)	Continuous
0.310	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Brighton and Hove Albion)	Continuous
0.193	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Rishi Sunak)	Binary
0.131	What will the seasonally adjusted month over month headline CPI inflation be in the United States in the following months? (Sep-23)	Continuous
0.098	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Boris Johnson)	Binary
0.045	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Penny Mourdant)	Binary
0.028	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Ben Wallace)	Binary
0.016	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Grant Shapps)	Binary
0.015	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Suella Braverman)	Binary
0.012	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Theresa May)	Binary
0.007	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Jeremy Hunt)	Binary
-0.025	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these weeks? (January 28)	Continuous
-0.204	Will there be 36 or more private fusion-energy companies in 2022?	Binary
-0.295	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these weeks? (February 11)	Continuous
-0.353	What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Apr-23)	Continuous
-0.489	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these weeks? (February 11)	Continuous
-0.675	What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (May-23)	Continuous
-0.821	What percent of the EU's gas storage capacity will be full on the following dates? (March 1, 2023)	Continuous
-0.856	Will PredictIt be open for trading in the US on March 16, 2023?	Binary
-1.005	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these weeks? (February 11)	Continuous
-2.007	Will Johnny Depp receive a film contract from a major film studio by January 1, 2024?	Binary
-2.192	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Green Bay Packers)	Binary
-2.392	What will the seasonally adjusted month over month headline CPI inflation be in the United States in the following months? (Jan-23)	Continuous
-2.397	Will the city of Redondo Beach, CA pass a ballot initiative to adopt STAR voting in March 2023?	Binary
-2.443	Horizon Scan: How many people will be forcibly displaced in these countries in 2022? (Sudan)	Continuous
-2.517	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Wolverhampton Wanderers)	Continuous
-2.550	How many nuclear weapons will there be in world stockpiles in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
-2.597	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these weeks? (January 14)	Continuous
-3.102	Horizon Scan: How many people will be forcibly displaced in these countries in 2022? (Uganda)	Continuous
-4.176	Will it become public that the FBI sought a warrant to launch an operation to disrupt web shells on private computers in 2022?	Binary
-4.232	Horizon Scan: How many people will be forcibly displaced in these countries in 2022? (Sri Lanka)	Continuous
-4.342	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Manchester United)	Continuous
-5.510	Will Peloton file for bankruptcy protection before 2024?	Binary
-5.794	Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Zionist Spirit)	Binary
-5.959	What will be the U.S. FY 2023 budget (in $ millions) for the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA)?	Continuous
-6.252	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these weeks? (February 11)	Continuous
-6.274	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these weeks? (January 14)	Continuous
-7.390	Will the US unemployment rate be above 4% in November 2023?	Binary
-7.642	Will Google or DeepMind release an API for a Large Language Model before April 1, 2023?	Binary
-7.719	What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Nov-23)	Continuous
-7.807	Will a grant recipient of the FTX Foundation have their grant funds frozen, seized, or demanded back? (March 1, 2023)	Binary
-7.859	What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Jun-23)	Continuous
-8.298	Horizon Scan: How many people will be forcibly displaced in these countries in 2022? (Lebanon)	Continuous
-9.278	Will Tsinghua University bar some students from returning to the dorms for the 2023 Spring Semester?	Binary
-9.876	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Newcastle United)	Continuous
-9.964	Will a decision be made to start and fund a dedicated and systematic science and technology review process at the 2022 BWC Review Conference?	Binary
-10.218	In 2023, will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit?	Binary
-10.334	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Bournemouth)	Continuous
-10.403	Will Philip Davis cease to be Prime Minister of the Bahamas before January 1, 2024?	Binary
-10.749	Will OPEC raise its forecast for 2023 global oil demand in its January 2023 report?	Binary
-11.049	If the Australian "Indigenous Voice to Parliament" Referendum is held before 2026, will it pass?	Binary
-11.220	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Leeds United)	Continuous
-11.300	Will Russia start another wave of mobilization before the following dates? (March 1, 2023)	Binary
-11.493	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Everton)	Continuous
-13.561	Will the TSA extend or reimpose a mask mandate on public transportation before 2024?	Binary
-13.698	What will be the upper limit of the federal funds target range on the following dates? (September 30, 2023)	Continuous
-13.985	What will be state-of-the-art accuracy on the Massive Multitask dataset on the following dates? (June 30, 2023)	Continuous
-14.227	Will Chase Bank send a notice to customers about updates to its security protocols, referencing the threat of social engineering attacks that can be attributed to LLMs, before 2024?	Binary
-14.340	Will Russia start another wave of mobilization before the following dates? (July 1, 2023)	Binary
-16.370	What will be the worldwide number of confirmed monkeypox (mpox) infections per year? (2023)	Continuous
-16.493	What percentage of people in low-income countries will have recieved at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine by January 1, 2023?	Continuous
-17.619	Will the Peoples Democratic Party win the 2023 Nigerian Presidential election?	Binary
-18.234	Will Saudi Arabia and Iran restore diplomatic relations by 2024?	Binary
-18.837	What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Jul-23)	Continuous
-19.471	Will the Supreme Court overturn California's Proposition 12 in National Pork Producers Council v. Ross before 2024?	Binary
-19.765	Will Ukraine use American rocket systems against targets on Russian soil before July 2023?	Binary
-20.535	Will Andrej Babiš win the next Czech Republic presidental election?	Binary
-21.739	Will a member of the United States Congress introduce legislation limiting the use of LLMs before January 1, 2024?	Binary
-22.675	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Arsenal)	Continuous
-24.262	Will the Shanghai index of Chinese stocks go up over 2023?	Binary
-25.215	Will there be a collision or ramming incident between a military vessel or military aircraft of Russia or Belarus, and one of a NATO country, before 2024?	Binary
-25.530	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Tampa Bay Buccaneers)	Binary
-27.089	Will a mainstream voice assistant use freeform dialog based on a large language model before end of 2023?	Binary
-29.843	Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Kansas City Chiefs)	Binary
-35.469	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Baltimore Ravens)	Binary
-37.137	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Minnesota Vikings)	Binary
-39.421	Will Twitter's average monetizable daily users be higher in 2023 than in 2022?	Binary
-44.069	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Jacksonville Jaguars)	Binary
-44.190	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Southampton)	Continuous
-44.350	Will the US PREVENT Pandemics Act be made into law before February 2023?	Binary
-45.601	What share of global payments in 2023 will be in Chinese renminbi?	Continuous
-47.154	In 2023, will an image model win Scott Alexander’s bet on compositionality, to Edwin Chen’s satisfaction?	Binary
-47.748	Will the 3.47 second Rubik's Cube world record be broken by July 1, 2023?	Binary
-56.309	Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Likud)	Binary
-61.093	What will be the upper limit of the federal funds target range on the following dates? (December 31, 2023)	Continuous
-95.243	Will Sweden join NATO before 2024?	Binary
-121.447	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (New York Giants)	Binary