puffymist

User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2022 - 2023

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

7.286	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
70.664	In 2023 will a new version of COVID be substantially able to escape Omicron vaccines?	Binary
66.371	Will a member of the United States Congress introduce legislation limiting the use of LLMs before January 1, 2024?	Binary
63.364	In 2023 will there be more than 25 million confirmed COVID cases in China?	Binary
53.648	Will Sweden join NATO before 2024?	Binary
42.136	In 2023, will an image model win Scott Alexander’s bet on compositionality, to Edwin Chen’s satisfaction?	Binary
41.386	Will the Crimean Bridge be knocked out for seven days before 2024?	Binary
35.021	In 2023, will the S&P 500 index reach a new all-time high?	Binary
30.525	Will US CPI inflation for 2023 average above 4%?	Binary
28.306	Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?	Binary
26.649	How many recently active Russian flag officers will emigrate from the Russia-aligned sphere before 2024?	Continuous
25.890	Will Twitter's net income be higher in 2023 than in 2022?	Binary
25.827	Will Ukraine regain control of at least 50 km^2 of the Crimean Peninsula?	Continuous
24.064	In 2023 will AI win a programming competition?	Binary
21.575	Will Donald Trump post a new tweet before March 1, 2023?	Binary
20.579	Will the Shanghai index of Chinese stocks go up over 2023?	Binary
19.410	In 2023, will Tether de-peg?	Binary
16.494	What share of global payments in 2023 will be in Chinese renminbi?	Continuous
16.433	Will Microsoft acquire Activision Blizzard by June 30, 2023?	Binary
16.111	Will a grant recipient of the FTX Foundation have their grant funds frozen, seized, or demanded back? (January 1, 2024)	Binary
15.829	Will Russia control any formerly Ukrainian territories other than LNR, DNR, or Crimea on January 1, 2024?	Binary
15.734	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Zaporizhzhia?	Binary
14.071	When will US or NATO forces conduct military operations in Ukraine or Ukraine's occupied regions?	Continuous
12.517	Will there be a collision or ramming incident between a military vessel or military aircraft of Russia or Belarus, and one of a NATO country, before 2024?	Binary
11.144	Will Binance or a subsidiary file for bankruptcy or be sold "under duress" before 2024?	Binary
11.087	In 2023 will Ali Khameini cease to be Supreme Leader of Iran?	Binary
11.043	In 2023, will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit?	Binary
10.221	In 2023 will a successful deepfake attempt causing real damage make the front page of a major news source?	Binary
10.168	Will Ukraine have de facto control of Sevastopol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
9.877	In 2023 will a nuclear weapon be detonated (including tests and accidents)?	Binary
9.375	Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join NATO before 2024?	Binary
8.845	On January 1, 2024, will there be a lasting cease-fire in the Russia-Ukraine war?	Binary
8.471	In 2023 will an issue involving a nuclear power plant in Ukraine require evacuation of a populated area?	Binary
7.905	On January 1, 2024, will the Kerch Bridge be destroyed, such that no vehicle can pass over it?	Binary
7.638	In 2023 will there be any change in the composition of the Supreme Court?	Binary
7.097	Will China get involved in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict by 2024?	Binary
7.036	In 2023 will the UK hold a general election?	Binary
6.767	Will COVID kill at least 50% as many people in 2023 as it did in 2022?	Binary
6.189	Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
5.813	Will Ukraine have de facto control of at least 90% of the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts on January 1, 2024?	Binary
5.705	When will OpenAI next update its approach to alignment research?	Continuous
4.600	Will Ukraine join NATO before 2024?	Binary
4.270	Will a coup or regime change take place in Russia in 2022 or 2023?	Binary
3.996	Will Ukraine join the European Union before 2024?	Binary
3.957	On January 1, 2024, will Elon Musk remain owner of Twitter?	Binary
3.827	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Sevastopol?	Binary
3.401	In 2023 will the Supreme Court rule against affirmative action?	Binary
3.283	In 2023 will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan?	Binary
1.928	Will Russia be removed from the UN Security Council by 2024?	Binary
1.726	In 2023 will a nuclear weapon be used in war (ie not a test or accident) and kill at least 10 people?	Binary
1.657	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Ron DeSantis is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
1.383	In 2023 will someone release "DALL-E, but for videos"?	Binary
1.275	What percentage of Russian GDP will be spent on military expenses in 2022?	Continuous
1.246	Will Russia be the world's most sanctioned country on February 22, 2023?	Binary
1.190	Will Russia invade Latvia, Lithuania, or Estonia before 2024?	Binary
0.634	In 2023 will WHO declare a new Global Health Emergency?	Binary
0.401	Will OpenAI's ChatGPT be available for free public use on Jan 31, 2023?	Binary
0.367	On January 1, 2024, will Rishi Sunak be Prime Minister of the UK?	Binary
0.295	Will Ukraine officially recognize a former Ukrainian territory as independent before 2024?	Binary
0.156	Will Dnipro be under Russian control on June 1, 2023?	Binary
0.118	Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join the EU before 2024?	Binary
0.115	Depending on Ukraine gaining territory in Crimea, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (< 50 km^2)	Binary
-0.753	Will Finland join NATO before 2024?	Binary
-2.170	Will cost of living riots happen in the UK before March 1, 2023?	Binary
-3.110	On January 1, 2024, will Vladimir Putin be President of Russia?	Binary
-4.109	In 2023 will Google, Meta, Amazon, or Apple release an AR headset?	Binary
-4.114	In 2023 will any other war have more casualties than Russia-Ukraine?	Binary
-4.516	In 2023 will any new country join NATO?	Binary
-4.526	In 2023 will Donald Trump get indicted on criminal charges?	Binary
-4.658	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Luhansk?	Binary
-5.058	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Gavin Newsom is the most likely Democratic nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
-5.059	On January 1, 2024, will Joe Biden have a positive (approval minus disapproval) rating?	Binary
-5.826	Will Russia capture or surround a large Ukrainian city before June 1, 2023?	Binary
-6.187	Will a grant recipient of the FTX Foundation have their grant funds frozen, seized, or demanded back? (March 1, 2023)	Binary
-6.894	In 2023 will a cultured meat product be available in at least one US store or restaurant for less than $30?	Binary
-6.981	Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2023?	Binary
-8.271	Will Bitcoin go up over 2023?	Binary
-9.094	By 2024, will Vladimir Putin be charged with war crimes by the International Criminal Court in connection to the Russian invasion of Ukraine?	Binary
-10.289	Will Bitcoin end 2023 above $30,000?	Binary
-10.386	On January 1, 2024, will an ordinary person be able to take a self-driving taxi from Oakland → SF during rush hour?	Binary
-12.701	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
-12.810	Will Twitter's average monetizable daily users be higher in 2023 than in 2022?	Binary
-14.043	Will Turkey declare sanctions on Russia before 2024?	Binary
-15.417	On January 1, 2024, will any FAANG or Musk company accept crypto as a payment?	Binary
-15.581	In 2023 will OpenAI release GPT-4?	Binary
-18.686	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Joe Biden is the most likely Democratic nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
-30.810	Will the US unemployment rate be above 4% in November 2023?	Binary
-30.855	In 2023 will Donald Trump make at least one tweet?	Binary