mutecypher

User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2022 - 2023

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

8.179	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
57.560	What percentage of US GDP will be spent on military expenses in 2022?	Continuous
39.747	What percentage of Russian GDP will be spent on military expenses in 2022?	Continuous
37.130	Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2023?	Binary
21.788	Will the US unemployment rate be above 4% in November 2023?	Binary
19.726	What proportion of NATO member states, excluding the USA, will increase their real 2023 defense spending by at least 25 % compared to 2022?	Continuous
18.967	Will Ukraine have de facto control of at least 90% of the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts on January 1, 2024?	Binary
18.266	Will Finland join NATO before 2024?	Binary
17.783	Will China get involved in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict by 2024?	Binary
13.820	In 2023 will the Supreme Court rule against affirmative action?	Binary
13.434	In 2023 will there be more than 25 million confirmed COVID cases in China?	Binary
13.136	Will the US ban TikTok before 2024?	Binary
12.778	Will China reverse its ban on bitcoin mining and trading before 2024?	Binary
12.726	Will COVID kill at least 50% as many people in 2023 as it did in 2022?	Binary
12.608	How many Russian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (50,000)	Binary
11.008	Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?	Binary
10.720	In 2023 will there be any change in the composition of the Supreme Court?	Binary
8.790	Will Johnny Depp receive a film contract from a major film studio by January 1, 2024?	Binary
7.870	Will a radiological "dirty bomb" be detonated in Ukraine or Russia before 2024?	Binary
6.842	Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
5.709	Will Ukraine join the European Union before 2024?	Binary
4.881	In 2023 will someone release "DALL-E, but for videos"?	Binary
4.043	How many Russian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (25,000)	Binary
3.278	Will Russia invade Latvia, Lithuania, or Estonia before 2024?	Binary
2.908	Will any member of NATO call for Hungary to be expelled before 2024?	Binary
2.734	Will a coup or regime change take place in Russia in 2022 or 2023?	Binary
1.217	Will OpenAI's ChatGPT be available for free public use on Jan 31, 2023?	Binary
1.102	Will Microsoft integrate Large Language Model responses directly into Bing Search before September 30, 2023?	Binary
0.989	In 2023 will a new version of COVID be substantially able to escape Omicron vaccines?	Binary
0.942	Will certain marble statues removed from Greece in the early 19th century be moved back before 2024?	Binary
-0.326	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Sevastopol?	Binary
-0.701	In 2023, will the S&P 500 index reach a new all-time high?	Binary
-3.920	Will a member of the United States Congress introduce legislation limiting the use of LLMs before January 1, 2024?	Binary
-5.613	How many Ukrainian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (25,000)	Binary
-9.080	Will Sweden join NATO before 2024?	Binary
-16.038	In 2023 will Donald Trump make at least one tweet?	Binary
-19.658	Will Vladimir Putin be the president of the Russian Federation on February 1, 2023?	Binary