89.031 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these weeks? (January 28) | Continuous |
82.273 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Arizona for these weeks? (January 28) | Continuous |
78.838 | What will Russia's nominal GDP be in 2022, in trillions of USD? | Continuous |
66.061 | In 2023, will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit? | Binary |
64.581 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Arizona for these weeks? (February 11) | Continuous |
57.375 | What will be the Council on Foreign Relations' count of conflicts with significant or greater impact on US interests on January 1, 2024? | Continuous |
56.194 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these weeks? (February 11) | Continuous |
52.175 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these weeks? (February 11) | Continuous |
52.065 | How much foreign aid will the US provide Ukraine in 2022? | Continuous |
51.501 | Horizon Scan: How many people will be forcibly displaced in these countries in 2022? (Uganda) | Continuous |
50.004 | Will Johnny Depp receive a film contract from a major film studio by January 1, 2024? | Binary |
47.175 | Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2023? | Binary |
46.149 | Horizon Scan: How many people will be forcibly displaced in these countries in 2022? (Lebanon) | Continuous |
45.899 | Horizon Scan: How many people will be forcibly displaced in these countries in 2022? (Sudan) | Continuous |
45.503 | What price will Coinbase quote for FTX's FTT token on February 1, 2023? | Continuous |
44.152 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these weeks? (February 11) | Continuous |
41.734 | Horizon Scan: How many people will be forcibly displaced in these countries in 2022? (Azerbaijan) | Continuous |
41.706 | Will Russia control any formerly Ukrainian territories other than LNR, DNR, or Crimea on January 1, 2024? | Binary |
38.584 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these weeks? (January 28) | Continuous |
36.680 | Will Holden's Bet with Zvi about Omicron resolve ambiguously? | Binary |
36.442 | How many Internally Displaced Ukrainians will be estimated by the UN in 2022? | Continuous |
36.003 | In 2023 will there be more than 25 million confirmed COVID cases in China? | Binary |
35.470 | Horizon Scan: How many people will be forcibly displaced in these countries in 2022? (Armenia) | Continuous |
34.702 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these weeks? (January 28) | Continuous |
34.437 | Americas Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Haiti) | Binary |
30.270 | Will the Crimean Bridge be knocked out for seven days before 2024? | Binary |
29.789 | What will be the total venture capital funding (in USD) for Anthropic, Adept, Character, Inflection, Conjecture, Cohere, & Huggingface on June 30, 2023? | Continuous |
29.406 | How many recently active Russian flag officers will emigrate from the Russia-aligned sphere before 2024? | Continuous |
29.142 | Will Holden win his Bet with Zvi about Omicron, conditional on one of them winning? | Binary |
28.324 | How many Russian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (50,000) | Binary |
27.738 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these weeks? (January 28) | Continuous |
27.184 | How many satellites will be deployed in 2022? | Continuous |
27.043 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these weeks? (February 11) | Continuous |
26.671 | What will be the worldwide number of confirmed monkeypox (mpox) infections per year? (2023) | Continuous |
26.334 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these weeks? (February 11) | Continuous |
25.334 | Will China reverse its decision to ban financial institutions from trading and engaging in cryptocurrency transactions before 2024? | Binary |
23.353 | Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024? | Binary |
23.078 | How many nuclear weapons will there be in world stockpiles in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
23.054 | What will be the market cap of Baidu, Alibaba, and Tencent in 2023? | Continuous |
22.238 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Arizona for these weeks? (January 14) | Continuous |
21.147 | Will Georgia impose sanctions against Russia before 2024? | Binary |
20.502 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Arsenal) | Binary |
20.314 | Will Finland join NATO before 2024? | Binary |
19.785 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Liverpool) | Binary |
19.736 | In 2023 will a successful deepfake attempt causing real damage make the front page of a major news source? | Binary |
19.622 | Will Saudi Arabia and Iran restore diplomatic relations by 2024? | Binary |
19.012 | West Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Ghana) | Binary |
18.953 | What percentage of people in low-income countries will have recieved at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine by January 1, 2023? | Continuous |
18.214 | Will China reverse its ban on bitcoin mining and trading before 2024? | Binary |
17.679 | Will Russia start another wave of mobilization before the following dates? (July 1, 2023) | Binary |
17.380 | Will Bitcoin end 2023 above $30,000? | Binary |
16.881 | Will Bitcoin go up over 2023? | Binary |
16.481 | Will Google or DeepMind release a public interface for a Large Language Model before April 1, 2023? | Binary |
15.124 | Will a member of the Chinese Politburo be expelled or arrested in 2022 or 2023? | Binary |
13.863 | Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2023? | Binary |
12.910 | What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Nov-23) | Continuous |
12.807 | When will Boris Johnson no longer hold the office of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom? | Continuous |
12.688 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these weeks? (January 28) | Continuous |
12.648 | Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join NATO before 2024? | Binary |
12.563 | Will Ukraine have a security guarantee from another country before 2024? | Binary |
12.239 | In 2023 will someone release "DALL-E, but for videos"? | Binary |
11.875 | In 2023 will a nuclear weapon be detonated (including tests and accidents)? | Binary |
11.753 | Does Omicron have a shorter generation interval than Delta? | Binary |
11.607 | Will pediatric cases of hepatitis with unknown origin be conclusively linked to COVID vaccination? | Binary |
10.904 | Will Microsoft acquire Activision Blizzard by June 30, 2023? | Binary |
10.811 | What will core PCE and the max unemployment rate be at the end of 2023? (UR ≥ 4.5%, core PCE < 3%) | Binary |
10.730 | If the Australian "Indigenous Voice to Parliament" Referendum is held before 2026, will it pass? | Binary |
10.706 | What percentage of US GDP will be spent on military expenses in 2022? | Continuous |
10.431 | In 2023 will Google, Meta, Amazon, or Apple release an AR headset? | Binary |
10.388 | Will cost of living riots happen in the UK before March 1, 2023? | Binary |
10.079 | Will China have approved cultivated meat for human consumption by 2024? | Binary |
9.978 | Will a major nuclear power plant in Germany be operational on June 1, 2023? | Binary |
9.945 | Will Dnipro be under Russian control on June 1, 2023? | Binary |
9.665 | Horizon Scan: How many people will be forcibly displaced in these countries in 2022? (Sri Lanka) | Continuous |
9.636 | Will the US ban TikTok before 2024? | Binary |
9.357 | Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine before 2024? | Binary |
9.247 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Chelsea) | Binary |
9.230 | In 2023 will WHO declare a new Global Health Emergency? | Binary |
9.083 | By December 31, 2023, will the courts block any part of the Biden Administration's plan to broadly cancel student debt? | Binary |
8.800 | Will OpenAI release a public API for programmatically querying ChatGPT before April 1, 2023? | Binary |
8.764 | Which of these US infrastructure sectors will be hit by a ransomware attack by May 30, 2023? (Nuclear Energy) | Binary |
8.476 | What will be the annual number of objects launched into space in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
8.241 | Will personal ID authentication be obligatory for new Twitter accounts on July 1, 2023? | Binary |
7.927 | On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Ron DeSantis is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024? | Binary |
7.890 | Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (New Hope) | Binary |
7.849 | Will Ukraine join the European Union before 2024? | Binary |
7.743 | Will there be a collision or ramming incident between a military vessel or military aircraft of Russia or Belarus, and one of a NATO country, before 2024? | Binary |
7.666 | Will China get involved in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict by 2024? | Binary |
7.582 | Will Russia capture or surround a large Ukrainian city before June 1, 2023? | Binary |
7.238 | Will the US Supplemental Poverty Measure be higher in 2022 than 2021? | Binary |
7.122 | Will Ukraine officially recognize a former Ukrainian territory as independent before 2024? | Binary |
7.112 | Horizon Scan: How many people will be forcibly displaced in these countries in 2022? (Haiti) | Continuous |
6.835 | Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Labor) | Binary |
6.751 | When will Ukraine regain control of the city of Kherson? | Continuous |
6.734 | Will Tsinghua University bar some students from returning to the dorms for the 2023 Spring Semester? | Binary |
6.730 | On January 1, 2024, will there be a lasting cease-fire in the Russia-Ukraine war? | Binary |
6.677 | Will Ukraine have de facto control of Sevastopol on January 1, 2024? | Binary |
6.626 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Tottenham Hotspur) | Binary |
6.600 | Will Ukraine have de facto control of at least 90% of the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts on January 1, 2024? | Binary |
6.600 | Will the Kakhovka dam be breached before May 2023? | Binary |
6.525 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Manchester United) | Binary |
6.515 | Will Binance or a subsidiary file for bankruptcy or be sold "under duress" before 2024? | Binary |
6.472 | Will a coup or regime change take place in Russia in 2022 or 2023? | Binary |
6.452 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these weeks? (January 14) | Continuous |
6.433 | Will a grant recipient of the FTX Foundation have their grant funds frozen, seized, or demanded back? (January 1, 2024) | Binary |
6.429 | Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Yisrael Beiteinu) | Binary |
6.394 | Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Zionist Spirit) | Binary |
6.256 | Which of these US infrastructure sectors will be hit by a ransomware attack by May 30, 2023? (Water Treatment) | Binary |
6.070 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Philadelphia Eagles) | Binary |
5.976 | Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Joint List) | Binary |
5.835 | Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Shas) | Binary |
5.258 | Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize before 2024? | Binary |
5.215 | On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Sevastopol? | Binary |
5.210 | In 2023 will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan? | Binary |
5.165 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Dallas Cowboys) | Binary |
5.153 | Will PredictIt be open for trading in the US on March 16, 2023? | Binary |
4.848 | Will there be more than 4 deaths between Russia and NATO forces outside of Ukraine before July 1, 2023? | Binary |
4.844 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Green Bay Packers) | Binary |
4.772 | Will a new Office of Pandemic Preparedness and Response Policy be created if the PREVENT Pandemics Act is made law? | Binary |
4.742 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Dallas Cowboys) | Binary |
4.695 | What will core PCE and the max unemployment rate be at the end of 2023? (UR < 4.5%, core PCE ≥ 3%) | Binary |
4.695 | Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2024? | Binary |
4.693 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) | Binary |
4.655 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Baltimore Ravens) | Binary |
4.599 | In 2023 will Donald Trump make at least one tweet? | Binary |
4.516 | Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Religious Zionist) | Binary |
4.453 | How much oil will Venezuela produce in 2022? | Continuous |
4.396 | Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join the EU before 2024? | Binary |
4.332 | Will Microsoft integrate Large Language Model responses directly into Bing Search before September 30, 2023? | Binary |
4.291 | When will airplane travelers be free from mask mandates in the USA? | Continuous |
4.266 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Los Angeles Chargers) | Binary |
4.213 | Will Tweets be inaccessible on Twitter.com for any seven days starting before 2024? | Binary |
4.207 | In 2023 will any other war have more casualties than Russia-Ukraine? | Binary |
4.202 | On January 1, 2024, will Vladimir Putin be President of Russia? | Binary |
4.106 | Will Vladimir Putin be the president of the Russian Federation on February 1, 2023? | Binary |
4.082 | How many Russian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (25,000) | Binary |
4.060 | How many Ukrainian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (25,000) | Binary |
4.034 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Los Angeles Chargers) | Binary |
4.033 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Minnesota Vikings) | Binary |
4.024 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Green Bay Packers) | Binary |
3.995 | Will Ukraine join NATO before 2024? | Binary |
3.919 | Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Meretz) | Binary |
3.641 | Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (UTJ) | Binary |
3.614 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Baltimore Ravens) | Binary |
3.608 | What percentage of Russian GDP will be spent on military expenses in 2022? | Continuous |
3.519 | Will Israel arm Ukraine before 2024? | Binary |
3.365 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Jacksonville Jaguars) | Binary |
3.312 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (New England Patriots) | Binary |
3.301 | Will the Peoples Democratic Party win the 2023 Nigerian Presidential election? | Binary |
3.199 | Will any US state re-implement a general indoor mask mandate before February 1st 2023? | Binary |
3.178 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Cincinnati Bengals) | Binary |
3.098 | On January 1, 2024, will Rishi Sunak be Prime Minister of the UK? | Binary |
3.006 | In 2023 will a nuclear weapon be used in war (ie not a test or accident) and kill at least 10 people? | Binary |
2.871 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Leicester City) | Binary |
2.793 | Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Likud) | Binary |
2.749 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (New Orleans Saints) | Binary |
2.707 | In 2023 will any new country join NATO? | Binary |
2.646 | Will a radiological "dirty bomb" be detonated in Ukraine or Russia before 2024? | Binary |
2.606 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Philadelphia Eagles) | Binary |
2.573 | By 2024, will Vladimir Putin be charged with war crimes by the International Criminal Court in connection to the Russian invasion of Ukraine? | Binary |
2.538 | In 2023 will the UK hold a general election? | Binary |
2.506 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Miami Dolphins) | Binary |
2.484 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Aston Villa) | Binary |
2.483 | Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Jason Calacanis) | Binary |
2.469 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these weeks? (January 14) | Continuous |
2.453 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Fulham) | Binary |
2.451 | What will be the real price of gas (per gallon, 2022 USD) in the US on the following dates? (October 2023) | Continuous |
2.442 | On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Joe Biden is the most likely Democratic nominee for President in 2024? | Binary |
2.433 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Brentford) | Binary |
2.421 | Will Russia be the world's most sanctioned country on February 22, 2023? | Binary |
2.388 | Will Russia test a nuclear weapon in the following years? (2023) | Binary |
2.292 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Denver Broncos) | Binary |
2.272 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Nottingham Forest) | Binary |
2.266 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Los Angeles Rams) | Binary |
2.261 | Will Twitter's net income be higher in 2023 than in 2022? | Binary |
2.163 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Crystal Palace) | Binary |
2.153 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Washington Commanders) | Binary |
2.138 | Will there be a large-scale radioactive contamination of a German territory by 2024? | Binary |
2.137 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (West Ham United) | Binary |
2.071 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Southampton) | Binary |
2.042 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (San Francisco 49ers) | Binary |
2.034 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Everton) | Binary |
2.020 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Seattle Seahawks) | Binary |
2.006 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Carolina Panthers) | Binary |
1.991 | Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Sriram Krishnan) | Binary |
1.956 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Pittsburgh Steelers) | Binary |
1.950 | Will Kim Jong-un remain the de facto leader of North Korea until (at least) January 1, 2024? | Binary |
1.942 | Will Russia be removed from the UN Security Council by 2024? | Binary |
1.925 | Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Steve Davis) | Binary |
1.898 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (New England Patriots) | Binary |
1.886 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (New York Giants) | Binary |
1.794 | On January 1, 2024, will any FAANG or Musk company accept crypto as a payment? | Binary |
1.775 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Minnesota Vikings) | Binary |
1.714 | What will be the seasonally adjusted S&P/Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index in the following months? (Mar-23) | Continuous |
1.686 | When will GPT-4 be announced? | Continuous |
1.646 | Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (John Legere) | Binary |
1.643 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Leeds United) | Binary |
1.627 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Las Vegas Raiders) | Binary |
1.624 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Newcastle United) | Binary |
1.619 | Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Jared Kushner) | Binary |
1.555 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Indianapolis Colts) | Binary |
1.522 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Las Vegas Raiders) | Binary |
1.522 | What will be the number of unmanned aircraft sightings (UAS) in 2022? | Continuous |
1.507 | Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Sheryl Sandberg) | Binary |
1.491 | What will be Turkey's inflation rate on the following dates? (February 2023) | Continuous |
1.491 | On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024? | Binary |
1.439 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Seattle Seahawks) | Binary |
1.370 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Los Angeles Rams) | Binary |
1.368 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (New Orleans Saints) | Binary |
1.365 | Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Peter Thiel) | Binary |
1.345 | Will Medvedchuk become president of Ukraine before 2024? | Binary |
1.293 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Detroit Lions) | Binary |
1.269 | Will OpenAI offer a ChatGPT subscription for less than $25/month before July 1, 2023? | Binary |
1.249 | Will at least 5 million refugees from Ukraine seek assistance from other countries? | Binary |
1.228 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Indianapolis Colts) | Binary |
1.219 | In 2023 will OpenAI release GPT-4? | Binary |
1.157 | Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Yesh Atid) | Binary |
1.156 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Kansas City Chiefs) | Binary |
1.148 | Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Mike Schroepfer) | Binary |
1.046 | Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Lex Fridman) | Binary |
1.034 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Buffalo Bills) | Binary |
1.026 | What will be the seasonally adjusted S&P/Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index in the following months? (Feb-23) | Continuous |
1.022 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Atlanta Falcons) | Binary |
1.017 | Will any member of NATO call for Hungary to be expelled before 2024? | Binary |
1.013 | Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Blake Masters) | Binary |
0.967 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Cincinnati Bengals) | Binary |
0.955 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Tennessee Titans) | Binary |
0.933 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Cleveland Browns) | Binary |
0.926 | Will Andrej Babiš win the next Czech Republic presidental election? | Binary |
0.887 | Will Texas vote to secede from the United States before 2024? | Binary |
0.855 | If Russia invades Ukraine, will +1,000 Russian soldiers be killed by Ukrainian forces in 2022 and 2023? | Binary |
0.821 | In 2023 will there be any change in the composition of the Supreme Court? | Binary |
0.795 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Chicago Bears) | Binary |
0.787 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Arizona Cardinals) | Binary |
0.786 | Which of these US infrastructure sectors will be hit by a ransomware attack by May 30, 2023? (Meatpacking) | Binary |
0.730 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (New York Jets) | Binary |
0.719 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Pittsburgh Steelers) | Binary |
0.706 | Will Joe Rogan leave Spotify before February 1, 2023? | Binary |
0.673 | On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Gavin Newsom is the most likely Democratic nominee for President in 2024? | Binary |
0.577 | In 2023, what will the cost-effectiveness of the Against Malaria Foundation be, according to GiveWell? | Continuous |
0.544 | Will Sam Bankman-Fried return to US soil before February 1, 2023? | Binary |
0.533 | Will North Korea send 100 or more troops to Ukraine before 2024? | Binary |
0.497 | What will be the US 2023 budget (in USD) for the CDC's new Center for Forecasting and Outbreak Analytics? | Continuous |
0.466 | Will the US PREVENT Pandemics Act be made into law before February 2023? | Binary |
0.439 | What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Feb-23) | Continuous |
0.364 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Carolina Panthers) | Binary |
0.345 | Will a decision be made to start and fund a dedicated and systematic science and technology review process at the 2022 BWC Review Conference? | Binary |
0.291 | In 2023 will a cultured meat product be available in at least one US store or restaurant for less than $30? | Binary |
0.289 | Will Coinbase file for bankruptcy protection before 2024? | Binary |
0.267 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Denver Broncos) | Binary |
0.173 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these weeks? (January 14) | Continuous |
0.135 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Washington Commanders) | Binary |
0.124 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (New York Giants) | Binary |
0.122 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Miami Dolphins) | Binary |
0.120 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Arizona Cardinals) | Binary |
0.117 | Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Rishi Sunak) | Binary |
0.098 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Buffalo Bills) | Binary |
0.059 | Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Boris Johnson) | Binary |
0.035 | What will the seasonally adjusted month over month headline CPI inflation be in the United States in the following months? (Apr-23) | Continuous |
0.032 | On January 1, 2024, will Joe Biden have a positive (approval minus disapproval) rating? | Binary |
0.024 | Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Jeremy Hunt) | Binary |
0.013 | Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Penny Mourdant) | Binary |
0.009 | Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Ben Wallace) | Binary |
0.003 | Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Grant Shapps) | Binary |
0.002 | Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Suella Braverman) | Binary |
0.001 | Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Theresa May) | Binary |
-0.031 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Jacksonville Jaguars) | Binary |
-0.046 | What will the seasonally adjusted month over month headline CPI inflation be in the United States in the following months? (May-23) | Continuous |
-0.133 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Cleveland Browns) | Binary |
-0.140 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Detroit Lions) | Binary |
-0.166 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (New York Jets) | Binary |
-0.370 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Atlanta Falcons) | Binary |
-0.382 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Houston Texans) | Binary |
-0.437 | Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (David Sacks) | Binary |
-0.443 | Will Ukraine regain control of at least 50 km^2 of the Crimean Peninsula? | Continuous |
-0.483 | What will core PCE and the max unemployment rate be at the end of 2023? (UR < 4.5%, core PCE < 3%) | Binary |
-0.619 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Brighton & Hove Albion) | Binary |
-0.622 | How many FAO domestic food price warnings in spring 2023? | Continuous |
-0.760 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Wolverhampton Wanderers) | Binary |
-1.118 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Bournemouth) | Binary |
-1.327 | Will Russia invade Latvia, Lithuania, or Estonia before 2024? | Binary |
-1.402 | What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Apr-23) | Continuous |
-2.426 | What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (May-23) | Continuous |
-2.844 | Will Brendan Fraser win an Oscar in 2023? | Binary |
-3.337 | Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Elon Musk) | Binary |
-3.995 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these weeks? (January 14) | Continuous |
-4.126 | Will Donald Trump post a new tweet before March 1, 2023? | Binary |
-4.167 | What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Oct-23) | Continuous |
-4.584 | What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Mar-23) | Continuous |
-4.796 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Tennessee Titans) | Binary |
-5.290 | Will a grant recipient of the FTX Foundation have their grant funds frozen, seized, or demanded back? (March 1, 2023) | Binary |
-5.527 | In 2023 will Donald Trump get indicted on criminal charges? | Binary |
-5.971 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) | Binary |
-7.193 | What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Sep-23) | Continuous |
-8.015 | Will a member of the United States Congress introduce legislation limiting the use of LLMs before January 1, 2024? | Binary |
-8.029 | What will core PCE and the max unemployment rate be at the end of 2023? (UR ≥ 4.5%, core PCE ≥ 3%) | Binary |
-8.156 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (San Francisco 49ers) | Binary |
-9.228 | Will Ukraine regain control of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant before March 1, 2023? | Binary |
-10.185 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these weeks? (January 14) | Continuous |
-12.403 | Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Blue and White) | Binary |
-12.667 | Will a mainstream voice assistant use freeform dialog based on a large language model before end of 2023? | Binary |
-13.018 | Will Israel impose sanctions on Russia before 2024? | Binary |
-13.588 | Will the US unemployment rate be above 4% in November 2023? | Binary |
-15.273 | What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Jul-23) | Continuous |
-15.951 | In 2023, will the S&P 500 index reach a new all-time high? | Binary |
-16.232 | Will Google or DeepMind release an API for a Large Language Model before April 1, 2023? | Binary |
-16.441 | How many estimated cases of Marburg virus (MARV) will occur globally in 2022? | Continuous |
-16.584 | What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Aug-23) | Continuous |
-17.918 | Will Russia start another wave of mobilization before the following dates? (March 1, 2023) | Binary |
-20.076 | Will Iran disempower its Guidance Patrol "modesty police" before 2024? | Binary |
-22.064 | What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Jun-23) | Continuous |
-22.795 | Will COVID kill at least 50% as many people in 2023 as it did in 2022? | Binary |
-23.102 | Will OpenAI's ChatGPT be available for free public use on Jan 31, 2023? | Binary |
-31.528 | In 2023 will AI win a programming competition? | Binary |
-35.688 | Will Sweden join NATO before 2024? | Binary |
-44.352 | What percent of the EU's gas storage capacity will be full on the following dates? (March 1, 2023) | Continuous |
-70.194 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Kansas City Chiefs) | Binary |
-124.464 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Manchester City) | Binary |