Zermelo

User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2022 - 2023

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

16.59	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
75.240	How much foreign aid will the US provide Ukraine in 2022?	Continuous
64.705	Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2023?	Binary
55.937	Will Sweden join NATO before 2024?	Binary
51.196	What will Russia's nominal GDP be in 2022, in trillions of USD?	Continuous
40.464	Will a major nuclear power plant in Germany be operational on June 1, 2023?	Binary
32.374	Will Russia control any formerly Ukrainian territories other than LNR, DNR, or Crimea on January 1, 2024?	Binary
30.613	Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join NATO before 2024?	Binary
24.046	How many Russian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (50,000)	Binary
22.043	Will Georgia impose sanctions against Russia before 2024?	Binary
21.616	Will Ukraine have de facto control of at least 90% of the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts on January 1, 2024?	Binary
19.575	Will Ukraine have a security guarantee from another country before 2024?	Binary
16.989	What proportion of NATO member states, excluding the USA, will increase their real 2023 defense spending by at least 25 % compared to 2022?	Continuous
16.905	Will Vladimir Putin be the president of the Russian Federation on February 1, 2023?	Binary
16.783	Will Ukraine have de facto control of Sevastopol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
16.059	Will Finland join NATO before 2024?	Binary
15.317	Will Ukraine officially recognize a former Ukrainian territory as independent before 2024?	Binary
15.062	Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?	Binary
14.699	Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
14.003	When will Ukraine regain control of the city of Kherson?	Continuous
13.948	Will Ukraine join the European Union before 2024?	Binary
13.615	Will a coup or regime change take place in Russia in 2022 or 2023?	Binary
10.609	Will Holden's Bet with Zvi about Omicron resolve ambiguously?	Binary
10.533	Will Dnipro be under Russian control on June 1, 2023?	Binary
9.553	How many Ukrainian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (25,000)	Binary
8.171	Will Russia be the world's most sanctioned country on February 22, 2023?	Binary
6.896	How many Internally Displaced Ukrainians will be estimated by the UN in 2022?	Continuous
6.822	Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
5.697	Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join the EU before 2024?	Binary
4.511	Will any member of NATO call for Hungary to be expelled before 2024?	Binary
3.932	Will Russia be removed from the UN Security Council by 2024?	Binary
3.794	Will Russia invade Latvia, Lithuania, or Estonia before 2024?	Binary
3.390	Will Medvedchuk become president of Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
1.885	How many Russian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (25,000)	Binary
0.746	What percentage of US GDP will be spent on military expenses in 2022?	Continuous
0.493	If Russia invades Ukraine, will +1,000 Russian soldiers be killed by Ukrainian forces in 2022 and 2023?	Binary
-0.031	Will at least 5 million refugees from Ukraine seek assistance from other countries?	Binary
-4.597	By 2024, will Vladimir Putin be charged with war crimes by the International Criminal Court in connection to the Russian invasion of Ukraine?	Binary