IY

User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2022 - 2023

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

8.268	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
67.553	What price will Coinbase quote for FTX's FTT token on February 1, 2023?	Continuous
61.228	What will be the total venture capital funding (in USD) for Anthropic, Adept, Character, Inflection, Conjecture, Cohere, & Huggingface on June 30, 2023?	Continuous
55.214	Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2023?	Binary
48.356	Will a major nuclear power plant in Germany be operational on June 1, 2023?	Binary
45.470	Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?	Binary
41.263	Will the US supply Ukraine with an Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS)?	Continuous
39.993	Will Sweden join NATO before 2024?	Binary
37.790	Will the Crimean Bridge be knocked out for seven days before 2024?	Binary
34.728	Will Binance or a subsidiary file for bankruptcy or be sold "under duress" before 2024?	Binary
34.071	Will the Shanghai index of Chinese stocks go up over 2023?	Binary
29.143	In 2023 will a new version of COVID be substantially able to escape Omicron vaccines?	Binary
27.127	Will Bitcoin end 2023 above $30,000?	Binary
26.989	Will Russia control any formerly Ukrainian territories other than LNR, DNR, or Crimea on January 1, 2024?	Binary
25.748	In 2023 will there be more than 25 million confirmed COVID cases in China?	Binary
24.993	Will Ukraine regain control of at least 50 km^2 of the Crimean Peninsula?	Continuous
21.602	Will Twitter have a corporate credit rating in the "C"s or worse before July 2023?	Binary
21.260	Will the US unemployment rate be above 4% in November 2023?	Binary
19.752	Will cost of living riots happen in the UK before March 1, 2023?	Binary
19.747	Will Iran disempower its Guidance Patrol "modesty police" before 2024?	Binary
18.588	Will COVID kill at least 50% as many people in 2023 as it did in 2022?	Binary
16.900	Will Peloton file for bankruptcy protection before 2024?	Binary
16.435	Will US CPI inflation for 2023 average above 4%?	Binary
16.274	Will the Kakhovka dam be breached before May 2023?	Binary
15.777	Will Russia start another wave of mobilization before the following dates? (March 1, 2023)	Binary
15.536	In 2023 will Ali Khameini cease to be Supreme Leader of Iran?	Binary
15.041	Will Ukraine regain control of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant before March 1, 2023?	Binary
14.717	In 2023 will AI win a programming competition?	Binary
14.498	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Ron DeSantis is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
14.355	In 2023 will a cultured meat product be available in at least one US store or restaurant for less than $30?	Binary
14.227	Will Ukraine have de facto control of at least 90% of the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts on January 1, 2024?	Binary
13.443	On January 1, 2024, will Rishi Sunak be Prime Minister of the UK?	Binary
12.958	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Luhansk?	Binary
12.477	Will Ukraine have de facto control of Sevastopol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
12.368	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Sevastopol?	Binary
12.196	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Zaporizhzhia?	Binary
11.847	Will Israel impose sanctions on Russia before 2024?	Binary
11.636	What will the US effective fed funds rate be in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
11.060	Will Coinbase file for bankruptcy protection before 2024?	Binary
10.945	Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2023?	Binary
10.634	On January 1, 2024, will there be a lasting cease-fire in the Russia-Ukraine war?	Binary
10.562	Will a coup or regime change take place in Russia in 2022 or 2023?	Binary
9.957	Will Twitter's net income be higher in 2023 than in 2022?	Binary
9.882	Will China get involved in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict by 2024?	Binary
9.864	Will Ukraine officially recognize a former Ukrainian territory as independent before 2024?	Binary
9.740	Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
9.671	In 2023 will there be any change in the composition of the Supreme Court?	Binary
9.424	In 2023 will an issue involving a nuclear power plant in Ukraine require evacuation of a populated area?	Binary
9.270	Will a grant recipient of the FTX Foundation have their grant funds frozen, seized, or demanded back? (January 1, 2024)	Binary
9.178	On January 1, 2024, will the Kerch Bridge be destroyed, such that no vehicle can pass over it?	Binary
8.713	Will the US ban TikTok before 2024?	Binary
8.192	Will Tweets be inaccessible on Twitter.com for any seven days starting before 2024?	Binary
8.106	In 2023 will the UK hold a general election?	Binary
7.913	Will Turkey declare sanctions on Russia before 2024?	Binary
7.890	Will a radiological "dirty bomb" be detonated in Ukraine or Russia before 2024?	Binary
7.667	Will Vladimir Putin be the president of the Russian Federation on February 1, 2023?	Binary
6.772	Will there be a large-scale radioactive contamination of a German territory by 2024?	Binary
6.686	Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
6.468	In 2023 will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan?	Binary
6.423	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Arsenal)	Binary
6.211	In 2023 will any other war have more casualties than Russia-Ukraine?	Binary
5.578	Depending on the US supplying Ukraine with an ATACMS, Will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (ATACMS provided)	Binary
5.192	Will Sam Bankman-Fried return to US soil before February 1, 2023?	Binary
4.838	In 2023 will someone release "DALL-E, but for videos"?	Binary
4.250	On January 1, 2024, will an ordinary person be able to take a self-driving taxi from Oakland → SF during rush hour?	Binary
3.977	Will Dnipro be under Russian control on June 1, 2023?	Binary
3.517	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Joe Biden is the most likely Democratic nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
3.110	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Gavin Newsom is the most likely Democratic nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
3.044	In 2023, will Tether de-peg?	Binary
2.856	In 2023 will a nuclear weapon be used in war (ie not a test or accident) and kill at least 10 people?	Binary
2.665	Will Russia be removed from the UN Security Council by 2024?	Binary
2.606	Will Russia invade Latvia, Lithuania, or Estonia before 2024?	Binary
2.594	Depending on Ukraine re-taking control of Kherson, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (Ukrainian Control)	Binary
2.417	Will Russia start another wave of mobilization before the following dates? (July 1, 2023)	Binary
2.388	When will Russia launch a new major land offensive in Ukraine outside of claimed oblasts?	Continuous
2.062	Will Russia test a nuclear weapon in the following years? (2023)	Binary
1.743	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Manchester City)	Binary
1.112	Will Finland join NATO before 2024?	Binary
0.737	On January 1, 2024, will Vladimir Putin be President of Russia?	Binary
0.644	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Liverpool)	Binary
0.634	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Tottenham Hotspur)	Binary
0.576	In 2023 will Donald Trump get indicted on criminal charges?	Binary
0.550	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Chelsea)	Binary
0.433	Will Ukrainian military forces strike targets more than 10 kilometers inside Russian territory?	Continuous
0.284	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Manchester United)	Binary
0.266	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Brentford)	Binary
0.257	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Rishi Sunak)	Binary
0.244	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Fulham)	Binary
0.230	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Aston Villa)	Binary
0.163	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Boris Johnson)	Binary
0.144	On January 1, 2024, will Elon Musk remain owner of Twitter?	Binary
0.143	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Brighton & Hove Albion)	Binary
0.080	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Jeremy Hunt)	Binary
0.073	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Crystal Palace)	Binary
0.063	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Nottingham Forest)	Binary
0.062	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Leicester City)	Binary
0.058	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Penny Mourdant)	Binary
0.041	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Ben Wallace)	Binary
0.025	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Grant Shapps)	Binary
0.024	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Wolverhampton Wanderers)	Binary
0.023	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Suella Braverman)	Binary
0.019	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Theresa May)	Binary
0.016	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Leeds United)	Binary
0.016	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Everton)	Binary
0.015	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Southampton)	Binary
0.015	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (West Ham United)	Binary
0.003	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Bournemouth)	Binary
-0.210	Will the UN open an investigation or otherwise intervene on the issue of the Xinjiang internment camps before 2024?	Binary
-0.340	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Newcastle United)	Binary
-0.585	When will Ukraine regain control of the city of Kherson?	Continuous
-0.765	In 2023 will any new country join NATO?	Binary
-1.109	Will any member of NATO call for Hungary to be expelled before 2024?	Binary
-1.297	In 2023 will Donald Trump make at least one tweet?	Binary
-1.340	Will Bitcoin go up over 2023?	Binary
-3.414	In 2023 will WHO declare a new Global Health Emergency?	Binary
-4.803	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
-5.175	Will Russia capture or surround a large Ukrainian city before June 1, 2023?	Binary
-5.758	Will Chase Bank send a notice to customers about updates to its security protocols, referencing the threat of social engineering attacks that can be attributed to LLMs, before 2024?	Binary
-5.932	Will certain marble statues removed from Greece in the early 19th century be moved back before 2024?	Binary
-7.958	In 2023 will OpenAI release GPT-4?	Binary
-8.139	Will Ukraine use American rocket systems against targets on Russian soil before July 2023?	Binary
-9.444	Will North Korea send 100 or more troops to Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
-11.498	By 2024, will Vladimir Putin be charged with war crimes by the International Criminal Court in connection to the Russian invasion of Ukraine?	Binary
-16.369	In 2023, will the S&P 500 index reach a new all-time high?	Binary
-17.386	Will a grant recipient of the FTX Foundation have their grant funds frozen, seized, or demanded back? (March 1, 2023)	Binary
-24.484	Will there be a collision or ramming incident between a military vessel or military aircraft of Russia or Belarus, and one of a NATO country, before 2024?	Binary
-34.486	On January 1, 2024, will any FAANG or Musk company accept crypto as a payment?	Binary