Vas75

User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2022 - 2023

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

9.893	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
50.490	Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2023?	Binary
47.927	In 2023, will the S&P 500 index reach a new all-time high?	Binary
36.404	Will Russia start another wave of mobilization before the following dates? (March 1, 2023)	Binary
36.126	Will Ukraine use American rocket systems against targets on Russian soil before July 2023?	Binary
36.094	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Zaporizhzhia?	Binary
32.103	How many Russian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (50,000)	Binary
24.737	Will Russia capture or surround a large Ukrainian city before June 1, 2023?	Binary
22.889	Will Georgia impose sanctions against Russia before 2024?	Binary
22.813	Will Ukraine have a security guarantee from another country before 2024?	Binary
20.836	In 2023 will Donald Trump make at least one tweet?	Binary
20.648	On January 1, 2024, will an ordinary person be able to take a self-driving taxi from Oakland → SF during rush hour?	Binary
18.729	Will a coup or regime change take place in Russia in 2022 or 2023?	Binary
18.204	What percentage of Russian GDP will be spent on military expenses in 2022?	Continuous
17.345	Will Ukraine have de facto control of at least 90% of the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts on January 1, 2024?	Binary
16.410	Will Vladimir Putin be the president of the Russian Federation on February 1, 2023?	Binary
15.013	Will Finland join NATO before 2024?	Binary
12.759	Will Russia start another wave of mobilization before the following dates? (July 1, 2023)	Binary
12.102	On January 1, 2024, will there be a lasting cease-fire in the Russia-Ukraine war?	Binary
11.973	Will Ukraine regain control of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant before March 1, 2023?	Binary
11.232	Will China get involved in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict by 2024?	Binary
10.507	Will Dnipro be under Russian control on June 1, 2023?	Binary
10.280	Will China reverse its ban on bitcoin mining and trading before 2024?	Binary
9.717	Will Ukraine have de facto control of Sevastopol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
8.523	In 2023 will a nuclear weapon be detonated (including tests and accidents)?	Binary
5.416	Will any member of NATO call for Hungary to be expelled before 2024?	Binary
4.188	How many Russian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (25,000)	Binary
4.181	When will Boris Johnson no longer hold the office of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom?	Continuous
2.481	Will Medvedchuk become president of Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
2.415	Will Russia invade Latvia, Lithuania, or Estonia before 2024?	Binary
1.327	Will any US state re-implement a general indoor mask mandate before February 1st 2023?	Binary
-39.334	Will Sweden join NATO before 2024?	Binary
-40.291	By 2024, will Vladimir Putin be charged with war crimes by the International Criminal Court in connection to the Russian invasion of Ukraine?	Binary
-68.539	When will Ukraine regain control of the city of Kherson?	Continuous