uszy

Duration:5 years

Time Period:2021-25

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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13.76		Weighted Average Score
Score	Coverage	Question	Question Type
64.395	99.9%	What will Russia's nominal GDP be in 2023, in trillions of USD?	Continuous
57.049	71.5%	How many active United Nations peacekeeping missions will there be in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
51.623	82.7%	How many Annex 2 states will ratify the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty by 2024?	Continuous
47.607	99.4%	When will Keir Starmer cease to be Leader of the Labour Party?	Continuous
44.242	99.5%	How many nuclear weapons will states possess on December 31, 2023?	Continuous
41.999	68.0%	Will Trump gain at least 10M followers on another platform?	Binary
41.650	78.3%	What will US inflation be in 2022?	Continuous
40.293	75.9%	How many plug-in electric vehicle sales will there be in the US in 2022?	Continuous
35.131	86.4%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Joe Biden)	Binary
30.610	82.7%	When will a Nobel Prize be awarded for COVID19-related accomplishments?	Continuous
29.568	78.3%	What will be the total size of MacArthur's 2022 and 2023 Nuclear Challenges grants?	Continuous
29.082	71.5%	What will be the global mortality rate (in percent) for children under the age of 5 in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
29.074	72.1%	Will Amazon accept Bitcoin before 2024?	Binary
28.023	71.5%	What percent of the world's primary energy will come from fossil fuels in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
25.401	100.0%	Will Elon Musk be the richest person in the world on December 31, 2025?	Binary
25.340	69.2%	What will productivity be in the United States in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
23.523	70.4%	What will the world population be in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
23.516	69.3%	What will be the highest estimated computation (in FLOP) used in large AI training runs by the following years? (2023)	Continuous
22.032	70.3%	How many chickens will be slaughtered for meat globally in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
21.084	81.4%	Will China have at least 420 nuclear warheads on December 31, 2023?	Binary
20.393	99.8%	How many deployed nuclear weapons will there be on December 31, 2023?	Continuous
19.673	96.9%	Will there be discussion in mainstream media about an AI arms race in March 2025?	Binary
19.205	50.8%	Will an additional state join NATO before 2024?	Binary
19.094	69.3%	What will global CO2 emissions (in tonnes) be in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
18.775	69.2%	What will be the global total fertility rate in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
18.649	69.3%	How many people will be living in liberal democracies in the world in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
17.688	85.8%	Will Substack be valued over $1 Billion before 2024?	Binary
17.060	70.3%	What will be the speed (in FLOPS) of the fastest supercomputer on record in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
16.510	71.5%	What will be the rate of deaths (per 100,000 people) from global conflict in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
16.351	70.4%	What will world real GDP growth per capita be in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
16.124	24.4%	How many missile test events will North Korea conduct in 2022 and 2023?	Continuous
16.064	96.0%	Will Joe Biden no longer be US President before January 20, 2025?	Binary
15.304	86.7%	By 2024, will a party to the NPT withdraw from the treaty?	Binary
14.367	71.5%	What will be the rate of people (per 100,000) affected by natural disasters in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
14.207	28.7%	Will the UK government announce that they will allow street votes to determine planning permissions by December 31, 2024?	Binary
14.015	97.0%	Will a dense machine learning model with at least 100 trillion parameters be trained before 2026?	Binary
13.456	95.6%	Will 2022 be the hottest year on record?	Binary
13.431	71.5%	What percent of the world population will use the internet in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
13.255	34.6%	How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Liberal Democrat)	Continuous
12.878	88.9%	What will be the speed (in FLOPS) of the fastest supercomputer on record in the following years? (2025)	Continuous
12.665	81.9%	By 2024, will a nuclear-armed state other than the US, Russia, or China clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?	Binary
12.592	99.8%	Will there be a deadly clash between Indian and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
12.289	79.3%	What will the US real annual growth rate be in 2022?	Continuous
11.978	78.4%	Will at least two states each increase the size of their nuclear weapons arsenals by at least 25% by 2024?	Binary
11.729	85.9%	Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal by 2024?	Binary
11.502	71.5%	What percent of global primary energy will come from nuclear fission or fusion power in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
11.390	78.4%	How many nonstrategic nuclear weapons will be deployed at the end of 2023?	Continuous
10.985	70.3%	What will the population-weighted average life expectancy at birth be in the G7 countries in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
10.256	86.7%	Will these countries join the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty before 2024? (South Sudan)	Binary
10.169	81.4%	Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and NATO armed forces before 2024, without US involvement?	Binary
9.469	69.2%	What will be total annual investment (in 2021 USD) in AI companies in the world in the listed years? (2023)	Continuous
8.100	78.3%	Will India have at least 200 nuclear warheads at the end of 2023?	Binary
7.937	88.9%	What will be the annual number of objects launched into space in the following years? (2025)	Continuous
7.878	99.9%	Will there be a deadly clash between US and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
7.580	81.9%	By 2024, will the US announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty?	Binary
7.164	64.2%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Ron DeSantis)	Binary
7.066	11.1%	Will Elon Musk become CEO of Twitter before 2025?	Binary
6.388	26.8%	By 2024, will the next Nuclear Posture Review explicitly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?	Binary
6.369	35.2%	How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Labour)	Continuous
6.143	99.9%	Will a non-test nuclear detonation cause at least 1 fatality before 2024?	Binary
6.130	70.3%	What will be world per capita primary energy consumption (in kWh) in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
5.807	81.9%	By 2024, will China clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?	Binary
5.604	34.6%	How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Conservative)	Continuous
5.369	78.3%	Will there be a deadly clash between Japanese and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
4.878	85.9%	Will any state leave NATO before 2024?	Binary
4.642	78.4%	Before 2024, will North Korea possess enough fissile material to make at least 100 warheads?	Binary
3.705	93.8%	Will Donald Trump become speaker of the US House of Representatives before January 15, 2023?	Binary
3.483	78.3%	Will there be >3,000 nonstrategic nuclear weapons at the end of 2023?	Binary
3.278	81.9%	By 2024, will Russia announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty?	Binary
3.027	99.8%	Will there be at least one HEMP attack by 2024?	Binary
2.778	99.8%	Will there be at least 1 fatality due to accidental or unauthorised nuclear detonation by 2024?	Binary
2.632	99.8%	Will there be at least one fatality due to deliberate nuclear detonation by 2024?	Binary
2.300	64.2%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Nikki Haley)	Binary
2.275	99.8%	Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
2.259	64.2%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Gavin Newsom)	Binary
1.425	64.2%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Michelle Obama)	Binary
1.289	64.2%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Pete Buttigieg)	Binary
1.151	99.8%	How many countries will increase the number of nuclear weapons they possess by at least 10% by 2024?	Continuous
1.099	64.2%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Mike Pence)	Binary
1.046	64.2%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Andrew Yang)	Binary
0.982	72.0%	What will be the total box office gross in the US & Canada in 2022?	Continuous
0.902	78.3%	Will more than 2,500 nuclear weapons be ready for use at short notice at the end of 2023, according to the most recent FAS estimates?	Binary
0.853	99.8%	Will there be at least one fatality due to inadvertent nuclear detonation by 2024?	Binary
0.780	64.2%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Hillary Clinton)	Binary
0.779	85.0%	By 2024, will Russia clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?	Binary
0.436	99.9%	Will there be a major famine in North Korea before 2025?	Binary
0.415	3.4%	Will North Korea launch another intercontinental ballistic missile before 2024?	Binary
0.379	99.8%	Will there be a deadly clash between the US and Russian armed forces before 2024?	Binary
0.115	2.2%	Will there be a US-Iran war by 2024?	Binary
-0.287	0.5%	Will the Taliban capture the Presidential Palace in Kabul by 2026-09-11?	Binary
-0.824	92.6%	Will a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election?	Binary
-1.467	40.2%	Will Donald J. Trump run for the office of President of the United States in 2024?	Binary
-1.901	70.3%	What will be the global rate of homicide deaths per 100,000 people in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
-2.100	83.4%	Will the US officially state the intention to re-ratify the INF Treaty by 2024?	Binary
-2.206	30.9%	Will at least one fire produce smoke plumes that reach into the stratosphere, before 2023?	Binary
-3.474	38.2%	Will Hunter Biden be indicted before November 5, 2024?	Binary
-3.538	34.6%	How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Scottish National Party)	Continuous
-3.610	99.5%	Will Freedom House report that internet freedom has declined every year until 2025?	Binary
-3.797	99.8%	Will there be armed conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before January 1, 2024?	Binary
-4.623	91.1%	Will Bitcoin outperform VTI from 2021-Mar-01 until 2026?	Binary
-5.732	22.1%	Will Donald J. Trump be allowed to operate a Twitter account before the 2024 presidential election?	Binary
-6.501	71.4%	Will the SEC approve any bitcoin ETF before January 20, 2025?	Binary
-7.742	42.2%	When will a SpaceX Starship reach orbit?	Continuous
-7.874	70.3%	What will be the share of people living in countries where same-sex marriage is legal in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
-8.621	86.7%	Will these countries join the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty before 2024? (India, Israel or Pakistan)	Binary
-9.408	99.9%	How many people will be reported to have died per year of COVID-19 on average during the years 2022-2025 in the United States?	Continuous
-9.509	71.5%	What will the world rice yield be (in tonnes per hectare) in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
-10.998	82.7%	Will there be a 10% global agricultural shortfall by 2024?	Binary
-11.584	95.9%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Joe Biden)	Binary
-12.146	78.3%	How many staff will the Arms Control Association, Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, and Ploughshares Fund have at the end of 2023?	Continuous
-56.240	72.4%	What will be the total size of Open Philanthropy's 2022 grants in the nuclear risk area?	Continuous