Metaculus on the election

Our community of predictors is poised to surpass 3,000, and we are continuing to experience steady growth, with close to 25,000 predictions now on the books.

Metaculus was not developed with political questions as its central goal, but there was no avoiding the 2016 election and its public interest. We ended up with a number of election-related questions that just resolved:

The election exhibits the importance of accountable and well-calibrated predictions. There is good indication that forecasts were over-confident, with many users attributing 5% or smaller odds to a Trump victory. Although there were some painful point losses to Metaculus predictors on several of the election-related questions, we regard this as a feature, not a bug: working toward accurate predictions individually and as a community, these lessons are very valuable!

Keep Predicting!

The Metaculus Team