Happy new year!

A whole boatload of questions resolved in the last couple of weeks of December (many of the form “Will X happen in 2016?”. Somewhat bizarrely, just about all of them (see the list here) resolved negative! In the great majority of cases, these negative resolutions were forecast correctly. I guess we all have to come up with some more likely things to predict about…

The leaderboard has now moved around a lot, and a couple have now attained “Predictor” status, homing in on “superpredictor.” We may even have a seer or a prophet soon!

I looked for a good numerical index with which to ask the question “will 2017 be better than 2016?”, but could not see a great candidate — if anyone else does please leave a comment, or just suggest a question onsite.