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News

Track record improvements

By max.wainwright on Feb. 20, 2018, 7 p.m. GMT

We've made some improvements to the Metaculus track record page: questions can now be filtered by date and question category, making it easier to drill down into the data. For example, it's easy to see that in the last 6 months the Metaculus prediction has outperformed the community prediction with a Brier score that's 33% lower. It's also easy to see that Metaculus performed especially well on biological questions (Brier score 75% lower than the community's), and both the Metaculus and community predictions missed the mark for cryptocurrency questions (both with scores > 0.24). In addition to the filters, there's now a histogram to clearly show the distributions of scores.

These improvements have been carried over to users' personal track record pages as well. Now you can easily see where your predictive powers are at their peak and where you could use more improvement. The level requirements have been reduced too: the basic track record graph is now available at level 2.

Are there other analytic tools you'd like to see on the track record pages? If you have ideas, leave a comment below!