assembling quantitative forecasts mapping definitive wisdom formulating calibrated estimations assembling quantitative futures aggregating intelligent wisdom mapping the future exploring critical predictions generating calibrated insights predicting contingent wisdom assembling accurate predictions formulating quantitative wisdom crowdsourcing accurate forecasts generating definitive understanding formulating probable forecasts


Metaculus is hiring a product manager!

By fianxu on Nov. 17, 2020, 7:02 p.m. GMT

Founded in 2015 by physics professors, Metaculus has grown steadily while other forecasting platforms have come and gone. An active community of thousands of expert forecasters and a state-of the art aggregation methodology means that Metaculus Predictions—while not a perfect predictor of the future—are right much of the time.

In 2020, Metaculus launched an initiative to bring its forecasting capabilities directly to organizations and decision-makers. With more accurate results than any other known forecasting system (we are proud to share our track record publicly) and uncanny timing (a highly uncertain political climate and COVID-19 leading to global interest in forecasting tools) this initiative has led to the expansion of the platform, attracting new funding, user growth, and new leadership. We are assembling an ace team to tackle the massive opportunities that lie ahead.

We're looking for a technical product leader to accelerate our product development. As our first product leadership hire, you'll play a significant role in setting the direction of Metaculus products, as well as our development workflow and culture. We promise you an exciting journey with plenty of opportunities for learning and growth. From building a team, to laying the foundational layers of a highly technical product, through seeing it all evolve, this role is ready-made for someone seeking a high-impact opportunity, who is ready to tackle challenges with confidence.

What you'll work on:

  • New tools and data products that bring Metaculus forecasts to decision-makers as part of their day-to-day workflow.
  • Our next big backend update involves a new micro-payments system leveraging an alternative web monetization framework, which will enable a new layer of financial incentives on top of our existing scoring system.
  • Bayesian and other causal network visualizations + scenario analysis tools designed to help decision makers analyze conditional options.
  • Machine learning optimizations.

You'll ideally:

  • Have 4+ years experience building web products
  • Be able to write clean technical specs with scrupulous attention to detail, and also be able to mock up wireframes when the occasion calls for it
  • Be comfortable shipping features end-to-end, from defining the product spec to deploying to production
  • Have hands-on experience managing sprint workflows

How to Apply Email (hello [at] metaculus [dot] com) with your CV and/or link to LinkedIn/personal site, and a few sentences about:

  • Why you're interested in Metaculus
  • What your ideal role looks like
  • What your ideal timeline looks like ("when can you start?")
  • Anything else you’d like us to know :)