We’ve been working steadily and quietly on an initiative that will create new ways for our community’s forecasts to engage with and inform policy and institutional decision-making, and educate and attract budding forecasting fans. For the next year, Metaculus will publish a series of experimental “fortified essays” on critical topics – emerging science and technology, global health, biosecurity, economics and econometrics, technology policy, global risk, environmental science, and geopolitics. These are longform, educational essays fortified with testable predictions.
To support this project, we are hiring 3-5 Analytical Storytellers – researchers, rationality enthusiasts, data scientists, and quantitative analysts – to write about their areas of expertise with creativity, clarity, and embedded forecasts. These pieces will be fortified essays, a flexible format that can incorporate interactive Metaculus forecasts, serve as a primer on crucial topics, showcase original analysis, and spotlight and contextualize high-leverage questions.
Analytical Storytellers will be able to pitch the tone and content of their essays to a smart but not stuffy audience. Essays will connect with readers who possess the relevant subject-matter expertise, while also appealing to a layperson who is open-minded, but may not yet understand what’s so fascinating about Kessler syndrome or photonic tensor cores. After reading, however, they will.
They will leave the fortified essay appreciating the current state of knowledge on the topic, and will be able to track some of the most important open forecast questions that are likely to shape the topic in the future. They’ll better know the stakes involved, what hinges on the resolutions of those open forecast questions, and they’ll be prepared to fit the next piece of information they encounter into a larger matrix of meaning.
We want to quickly fill 3-5 such roles. We hope you’ll apply, or share this job posting with someone you think is a good fit!
- A high degree of skill utilizing quantitative reasoning within a cohesive narrative structure
- Fluency in your subject-matter expertise, ability to source and cite appropriate reference material
- Ability to do statistical analysis on datasets
- Ability to set and stick to writing deadlines. First drafts should be submitted within three weeks of a pitch being accepted, and feedback should be responded to within a week of receiving it. Revisions should be provided within 1-2 weeks of request, with the overall expectation being that pieces are publish-ready within a month of assignment.
- Creativity in generating and structuring ideas for content
- Ability to write with authority for an audience of specialists, while also able to attract and hold the attention of the intelligent, curious layperson
Expectations and Process
- Once hired, Analytical Storytellers are welcome to submit up to 5 essays per month
- The Metaculus editor will typically review all agreed-upon, submitted pieces within one week
How to Apply
Email (christian [at] metaculus [dot] com) with your resume/CV and optionally a link to your LinkedIn or personal site. Also provide us with:
- Two one-paragraph-long pitches for pieces you would write. If needed, include one-sentence descriptions of any new Metaculus questions that would be necessary to support these pieces
- Two short writing samples from past work
Published fortified essays are 1000+ words in length and will usually entail writing new forecasting questions in support of the piece. Compensation for both the essay and the supporting questions is commensurate with experience. Bonuses are paid out for especially compelling and conversation-driving fortified essays.