The Sagan Space Tournament

What will be some of the near-term milestones in spaceflight and space exploration? We've launched the Sagan Space Tournament to deliver forecasts on some of the most exciting developments in this field. With your insights, we aim to make a real impact by informing decision makers and practitioners in space governance.

This will be Metaculus’s first tournament focused entirely on spaceflight and exploration. Forecasts will cover a variety of topics across near-term time scales — primarily 2025 through 2035.

A total $5,000 prize pool will be awarded for accurate forecasts and insightful comments. A total of $2,500 will be awarded in 2024 to exemplary comments, as determined by a panel of judges. Another $2,500 will be awarded in 2030 when most of the tournament’s questions will likely be resolved.

Thank you to the Metaculus community for sharing your valuable insights and contributing to our shared understanding of spaceflight and exploration timelines!