Question
When will an AI-written paper first get published in a top 50 scientific journal according to the Scimago Journal rankings?
Total Forecasters23
Community Prediction
19 Sep 2028
(21 Dec 2025 - Jun 2033)
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CDF
| Quartiles | community | My Prediction |
| lower 25% | 21 Dec 2025 | — |
| median | 19 Sep 2028 | — |
| upper 75% | Jun 2033 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >Jan 2050 | 3.5% | — |
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Authors:
Opened:Jul 23, 2022
Closes:Jan 1, 2050
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2050
Spot Scoring Time:Jul 25, 2022
When will the New York Times publish an article that it claims or acknowledges is 100% written by AI?
When will a computer program be listed as an author in journal article in the Annals of Mathematics?
06 Nov 2029
By 2050, will at least 25% of #1 NYT Best Selling Fiction be primarily written by AI?
33%
Authors:
Opened:Jul 23, 2022
Closes:Jan 1, 2050
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2050
Spot Scoring Time:Jul 25, 2022
When will the New York Times publish an article that it claims or acknowledges is 100% written by AI?
When will a computer program be listed as an author in journal article in the Annals of Mathematics?
06 Nov 2029
By 2050, will at least 25% of #1 NYT Best Selling Fiction be primarily written by AI?
33%