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Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q6 - Impossible Burger meat will be sold in at least one national grocery chain
Dylan Matthews and Kelsey Piper of Vox's Future Perfect have done the internet a solid by making public probabilistic predictions. For this series, we've Metaculus-ized a smattering for your delectation. We suggest you start with the first question in the series, here.
From Vox's Future Perfect 2019 Series, which originally ran 1.15.19:
The spread of plant-based meat alternatives was one of the big stories of 2018, and it’s a trend that looks like it’ll keep gaining momentum in 2019. The Impossible Burger, a plant-based burger famous for tasting more like slaughtered meat, is currently available only in restaurants, but the startup dramatically expanded production last year with a new Oakland facility projected to eventually produce 1 million pounds of plant-based meat a month. Last fall, it announced that the burger would hit grocery stores in 2019. Nothing is a sure thing until it’s on the shelves, but I think the company is very likely to hit its target. —KP
Future Perfect's prediction: 95%
The question resolves positive by credible media report or press release indicating that Impossible Burger meat is being sold in a national grocery chain as defined by wikipedia's list of national chains
Visit the other questions in the Future Perfect 2019 Series:
Related Non-Series Questions:
Metaculus help: Predicting
Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.
The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available. With tachyons you'll even be able to go back in time and backdate your prediction to maximize your points.
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Metaculus help: Community Stats
Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.