generating calibrated predictions modeling definitive estimations calculating precise insights exploring critical estimations computing contingent predictions mapping the future aggregating calibrated insights mapping definitive contingencies mapping predictive estimations predicting precise futures generating contingent futures exploring quantitative estimations formulating quantitative insights predicting accurate understanding


Metaculus Help: Spread the word

If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.

Will one of the verified oldest living persons in the world reach 120 years of age?

We are all aware that, unfortunately, that there is a fairly strict upper limit on the lifespace of humans. In particular this article reports research suggesting a "the maximum human lifespan at an average of 115 years, with an absolute limit of 125 years." The research suggests that "the probability in a given year of seeing one person live to 125 anywhere in the world is less than 1 in 10,000." The maximum documented lifespan in history belongs to Jeanne Clement, a French woman who died at the age of 122 in 1997.

Given that this previous record is close to the maximum, and may be an outlier, it may or may not be surpassed in the near future. This suggests the question:

Will any of the current top 30 of oldest living persons as of Oct. 11, 2016 reach the age of 120?

This question resolves positively if one (or more) person of verified age in the current Wikipedia list celebrates his or her 120th birthday before or on the 23rd of March 2024. (The earliest resolution would be the birthday of Mrs Emma Morano, from Italy, on the 29th of November 2019.)


Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

This question is not yet open for predictions.

Thanks for predicting!

Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!

Track your predictions
Continue exploring the site

Community Stats

Metaculus help: Community Stats

Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.