Estimated COVID-19 infections before 2021:

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Novel coronavirus (COVID-19), as denoted by the World Health Organization, also known as Wuhan coronavirus or Wuhan seafood market pneumonia virus, is a positive-sense, single-stranded RNA coronavirus first reported in 2019 and genomically sequenced after nucleic acid testing on a positive patient sample in a patient with pneumonia during the 2019-2020 Wuhan pneumonia outbreak. The virus is at least 70% similar in genetic sequence to SARS-CoV, the virus that causes severe acute respiratory syndrome.

A situation summary from the US Centers for Disease Control is available here.

This question asks: How many human infections of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) will be estimated to have occurred before 2021, worldwide?

The question should resolve on the basis of a credible scientific estimate, published in (or before) the year 2021, of the actual number of infections. If there are estimates judged credible by a Metaculus admin, resolution should be the median of the published estimates.

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