397 forecasters

Will the United States recognize Taiwan before January 20, 2029?

10%chance

No key factors yetAdd some that might influence this forecast.

Authors:

Opened:

Mar 28, 2025

Closes:

Jan 20, 2029

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 20, 2029

Spot Scoring Time:

Apr 2, 2025

POTUS Predictions

Full-Term Phase

China warns Taiwan and human rights remain among its ‘red lines’ after Trump-Xi talks

CNN•Nov 4, 2025

Trump claims Xi told him China won’t act against Taiwan while he is US president

Independent•Nov 3, 2025

Trump says China’s Xi assured him he won’t take action on Taiwan while Trump is president

NBC•Nov 3, 2025

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