Volatility: Standard deviation (0.30%) derived from historical two-week yield changes (2023–2024) and adjusted for 2025 stability expectations.

Tail risks: Asymmetric shocks (e.g., geopolitical events) could alter probabilities but are not base case.

Data integrity: Follows FRED publication rules as specified.

Economic context: Inflation moderates toward 2%, Fed maintains slightly restrictive policy, and growth stabilizes.