Metaculus Help: Spread the word
If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.
A complete buyout of Pebble by Fitbit by end of year?
Before the Apple Watch came the Pebble. The Kickstarter-funded smartwatch communicates with either iOS or Android phones, employs an LCD e-ink screen to minimize power consumption, and retails for a fraction of the cost of Apple's smartwatch. According to one fan, Pebble makes a watch "so good it puts Apple to shame."
Yet Pebble, and the wearables industry in general, have fallen on hard times. Fitness tracker company Fitbit's stock plummeted in early November, and Pebble has laid off a quarter of its staff. Wearables companies are looking for the next innovation - or to cut their losses.
On November 30, news broke that Fitbit is in talks to buy Pebble. The deal brings all of Pebble's expertise and technology to Fitbit, and offers Fitbit a chance to eliminate a competitor. The purchase price has not been finalized, but has been reported to be around $40 million. The deal could also affect production of Pebble's latest products, the Pebble Time 2 and the Pebble Core.
Will a takeover of Pebble by Fitbit be finalized and approved before the end of 2016?
This question will resolve as positive if the acquisition of Pebble by Fitbit is finalized and receives all necessary regulatory approval on or before Dec. 31, 2016, as reported in a corporate press release or article in a reputable journalistic outlet.
Metaculus help: Predicting
Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.
The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available. With tachyons you'll even be able to go back in time and backdate your prediction to maximize your points.
The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.
This question is not yet open for predictions.
Metaculus help: Community Stats
Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.