0 comments
99 forecasters
How many Frontier AI labs will there be on Dec 31, 2025?
Latest estimate
6.33 labs
Authors:
Opened:Oct 29, 2025
Closed:Oct 29, 2025
Scheduled resolution:Dec 31, 2025
Spot Scoring Time:Oct 29, 2025
Community Prediction Aggregation Method:Unweighted
Include Bots:Yes
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch
How many Frontier AI labs will there be on Dec 31, 2025?
6 labs
(4.64 - 8.06)
6 labs
(4.64 - 8.06)
67 forecasters
Before 2030, how many new AI labs will be leading labs within 2 years of their founding?
33 forecasters
Will three or more Frontier AI Labs issue a joint statement committing to constrain their AI's capabilities before 2026?
0.5% chance
59