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If Trump is not sworn in as President in 2021, will he become the Republican nominee for President in 2024?
Donald John Trump is the 45th and current president of the United States. He is also the Republican nominee for the 2020 Presidential Election.
This question will resolve positively if:
- someone other than Trump is sworn in as President in 2021 and
- Trump becomes the official Presidential nominee for the Republican party in the 2024 election.
This question will resolve ambiguously if:
- Trump is sworn in for a second term in 2021.
- Trump is not alive by the end of the Republican national convention of 2024.
Metaculus help: Predicting
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The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.
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Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.
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Metaculus help: Community Stats
Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.