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Will Tesla's market cap fall in half in 2018?
Tesla has promised revolutionary new technology to the auto industry, but it has also had trouble scaling up production and has consistently posted losses.
Despite this, Tesla has a market cap of over 50 billion dollars as of the writing of this question. It is unclear how this number will evolve in the future, though.
Therefore, it is asked:Will Tesla's market cap on the 31st of December 2018 at 11:59:59 PM UTC be less than half of its market cap on the 31st of December 2017 at 11:59:59 PM UTC?
Data for resolution shall come from a google search for TSLA. The question shall also resolve positive if Tesla files for bankruptcy before 31st of December 2018 at 11:59:59 PM UTC.
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The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available. With tachyons you'll even be able to go back in time and backdate your prediction to maximize your points.
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Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.
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Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.