Related Queston on Metaculus:
This is one of several questions in this tournament focused on nuclear proliferation, force sizes, or yields. See here for a list of such questions and some discussion of these topics.
"The Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (Non-Proliferation Treaty, NPT) is regarded as the cornerstone of the global nuclear non-proliferation regime and an essential foundation for the pursuit of nuclear disarmament. It was designed to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons, to further the goals of nuclear disarmament and general and complete disarmament, and to promote cooperation in the peaceful uses of nuclear energy. A total of 191 States have joined the Treaty, including the five nuclear-weapon states."
Four states—India, Israel, Pakistan, and South Sudan—have never signed the treaty. (In addition, North Korea announced its withdrawal from the treaty in 2003.) India and Pakistan possess nuclear weapons and Israel is believed to do so as well. South Sudan was founded in 2011.
Will India, Israel or Pakistan join the NPT by 2024?
This question resolves positively if, between this question opening and January 1, 2024, at least one of India, Israel or Pakistan join (accede to) the NPT, according to its depositary governments (USA, UK, Russia), as reported on the UN website, official websites of the depositary governments or by reputable new sources.