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Republicans Win House and Senate in 2022


Related Questions on Metaculus:

On elections scheduled for November 8, 2022, US voters will elect all 435 members to the House of Representatives and 34 out of 100 members of the Senate. As of December 22, 2021, Democrats hold 8 more seats than Republicans in the House (with 1 seat vacant), and have the narrowest majority in the Senate with 50 Senators in the Democratic caucus, with Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris to break 50-50 tied votes.

Democratic President Joe Biden said at A DNC party on December 14, 2021,

I just mentioned that we’d reduce the cost for American families. We have to keep making the case. And if we do, I believe we’re going to win. Let me say this again for the press: We’re going to win in 2022. I really mean it.

Republican Senator Rick Scott said to Fox Business on the same day,

We’re going to win [...] If your state was won by Joe Biden by less than 10 points, it’s a battleground state. We’re going to have races across the country.”

Generic congressional ballot data shows Republicans with a 1.6 percentage point lead over Democrats on December 22, 2021. Biden currently has an -8 percentage point net approval rating.

FiveThirtyEight journalist Geoffrey Skelley has reported a larger share of Democrats resigning from the House, arguing this is a signal of good prospects of a Republican victory.

Will Republicans win both the House and Senate in 2022 US midterm elections?

This question will resolve positively if, following the 2022 US congressional elections (and any following runoffs or recounts), over 50% of House and Senate congresspeople are members of the Republican party. If Democrats win either the House or the Senate, or both, this question will resolve negatively.

Independents or third-party congresspeople who are known to caucus with a specific party will be counted in that party's share of members.

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