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    Question Groups: Fan Graphs & User Creation

    Created by christian on {{qctrl.question.created_time | dateStr}} • Edited on {{qctrl.question.edited_time | dateStr}}
    Metaculus Meta

    2022-7-19 Update

    Introducing Fan Graphs

    Fan graphs offer an intuitive way to identify a past trend and forecast the next one. Learn more about this new tool for visualizing question group time series here.

    fan2

    Create Your Own Question Groups

    You now have the ability to create and submit your own question groups. Simply create a question, select 'group' from Question Type, and add your subquestions.

    groupCreate

    Introducing Question Groups

    Faster, more consistent forecasting across all kinds of forecast questions

    Question groups now support all question types, including binary and date questions. Predict efficiently across interconnected outcomes and ensure that related predictions are internally consistent.

    This post describes several updates and enhancements to question groups. To read more about the basics of question groups, visit the FAQ here.

    There can be only one

    Who will be the next prime minister of France? Which country will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? Some contests can only have one winner. When a question has multiple, mutually exclusive potential outcomes, question groups can bring binary subquestions together on one page to simplify comparisons and facilitate forecast updates.

    Who will be the prime minister of France on 2022-07-01? group0

    group1

    Forecasts can be input for each outcome, and additional options may be added over the life of the question group. For example, on this question, as political winds shift, additional candidates for prime minister may be added to the page.


    Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? group2

    Question groups also allow for many questions to be asked simultaneously, but it's not required that you predict on every subquestion or outcome within a group. This World Cup question comprises what are in fact 32 different binary questions, and each is scored independently.

    While question groups with multiple binary outcomes are not identical to multiple-choice questions, this feature update does streamline the process of forecasting on mutually exclusive outcomes.

    Choices, choices

    For some questions, only a set number of binary outcomes can resolve positively. Only five cryptocurrencies can be in the top five by market cap. Question groups make it easier to keep your forecasts coherent by allowing you to see your predictions on related binary outcomes all in one place. group3

    Consistency is key

    Forecasting multiple sequential dates or a numerical outcome at different time points is challenging enough without worrying about conflicting forecasts. Question groups give you confidence your related forecasts make sense relative to each other by letting you see them all, in sequence, in a single location. For example, you might confirm you’ve predicted progressively wider distributions the further into the future you look in order to reflect your greater uncertainty.

    group4

    group5

    The interface

    Radio buttons next to the table change which question's plot is displayed and which subquestion is being forecast.

    group6

    Multiple forecasts can be submitted with a single click. Simply input your forecast for each subquestion or outcome and click the Update button when finished.

    Getting started with question groups

    We’ve created several question groups comprising binary subquestions to showcase what this new feature is capable of:

    We’re also proposing creating the following question groups. Comment below with whether you’d like to see these as groups, and let us know other question groups you want to forecast on.

    • Who will be elected president of the United States in 2024?
    • Who will be the Republican nominee for US President in 2024?
    • Which country will be the first to select >10% of their newborns for intelligence?
    • Who will be the Democratic nominee for US President in 2024?
    • What will be the total number of confirmed or suspected cases of Monkeypox in the following regions in 2023?
    • Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative party?
    • If life is discovered in the solar system by 2050, where will it be first discovered?
    • If American Infrastructure is attacked by a Russian Cyberattack in 2022, which systems will be targeted?
    • If there is at least one nuclear detonation by 2050, in which countries will there be at least one fatality?
    • Will any of these countries approve a cultivated meat product for consumption by April 2023?
    • Will any of these countries ban a major crop for export before April 2023?
    • How much money will Open Philanthropy grant towards Global Health and Development in 2025?

    Numerical question groups

    Question groups with numerical subquestions have already been implemented in the FluSight Challenge and the Ukraine Conflict Tournament. Access them below:

    What happens to comments?

    When individual questions are combined and converted into a question group, your comments on those questions are all moved to the new question group’s comment section and are flagged to indicate the change.

    How are question groups scored?

    Each outcome within a question group is its own subquestion and is scored as an independent question.

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