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US Democracy Index

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Will the losing major-party candidate in the following U.S. presidential elections refuse to concede defeat before electors meet?

0 comments

14 forecasters

Will two or more losing major-party candidates for governor or U.S. Senator in competitive races refuse to concede defeat in the following general elections?

7 comments

12 forecasters

What will be the lead of Zohran Mamdani in the 2025 NYC mayoral election?

Latest estimate

14.8 pp

This question is closed for forecasting.

19 comments

46 forecasters

What will the first reported earnings per share after September 2025 be for the following companies?

AAPLresult: 1.85 $

AMDresult: 0.75 $

AMZNresult: 1.95 $

18 comments

48 forecasters

What will the first reported revenues after September 2025 be for the following companies?

AAPLresult: 102.466B $

AMDresult: 9.246B $

AMZNresult: 180.169B $

1 comment

6 forecasters

Will Sean Duffy be Acting Administrator of NASA continuously through December 31, 2025?

12%chance

38% this week

118 comments

271 forecasters

Will the United States attack Venezuela before 2026?

50%chance

15% this week

Key Factors

3 comments

27 forecasters

When will the US President sign a continuing resolution or omnibus spending bill ending a government shutdown?

Current estimate

23 Nov 2025

11 comments

85 forecasters

What will be the fastest average solving time of the 3x3x3 Rubik's Cube during November 2025?

Current estimate

4.04 seconds

0 comments

8 forecasters

Will Umaro Sissoco Embaló be re-elected president of Guinea-Bissau in 2025?

86%chance