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Seeing the Future Through Fiction: How to Harness Your Creativity for Forecasting

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Metaculus Journal Archives

Will AI be given legal rights or be protected from abuse anywhere in the United States before 2035?

20%chance

In the 2021 AIMS survey, what percentage of US adults agreed with the statement, “I support a global ban on the development of sentience in robots/AIs.”?

result57.68

In the 2021 AIMS survey, what percentage of US adults answered “Yes” to the statement, “Do you think it could ever be possible for robots/AIs to be sentient?”

result34.82

What percent of voters will vote in favor of Sioux Falls' 2022 Slaughterhouse ballot question?

result47.65

Increased formal recognition of animal sentience?

Ambiguous

PhilPapers survey mini-series: Consciousness of future AI systems

result39.19

In the 2021 AIMS survey, what percentage of US adults agreed with the statement, “I support granting legal rights to sentient robots/AIs.”?

result37.16

Will Rob Long believe there is conscious AI before 2030?

60%chance

In the 2021 AIMS survey, what percentage of US adults agreed with the statement, “The welfare of robots/AIs is one of the most important social issues in the world today.”?

result30.31