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Before the first year in which GWP growth exceeds 30%, how many FLOP will be used in the largest ML training run?

What will be the speed (in FLOPS) of the fastest supercomputer on record in the following years?

What will be the highest estimated computation (in FLOP) used in large AI training runs by the following years?

On January 1, 2030, what will be the difference (in FLOP) between the largest AI models from non-authoritarian and authoritarian countries?

What will the necessary computational power to replicate human mental capability turn out to be?

How many FLOPS will be used to train GPT-4 (if it is released)?

result2.1×10²⁵

Will the US government deem that an AI model has been trained with at least 1e26 FLOP before 2026?

When will a Chinese AI Lab train a model with at least 2.1E+24 FLOPs (~10% of GPT-4)?

result28 May 2024 12:00

How many months after a Western actor trains a 1e26 FLOP model (~5x GPT-4) will a Chinese actor do so?

This question is closed for forecasting. Latest Community prediction is displayed.

Will the FLOPs thresholds outlined in the US Executive Order on Safe, Secure, and Trustworthy Development and Use of Artificial Intelligence be updated before the indicated year?

2027result: Yes

2030result: Yes