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US Democracy Index

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What will be the highest estimated computation (in FLOP) used in large AI training runs by the following years?

3 comments

7 forecasters

Before the first year in which GWP growth exceeds 30%, how many FLOP will be used in the largest ML training run?

Current estimate

3.7×10²⁹ FLOP

19 comments

69 forecasters

What will be the speed (in FLOPS) of the fastest supercomputer on record in the following years?

44 comments

127 forecasters

What will the necessary computational power to replicate human mental capability turn out to be?

Current estimate

9.9×10¹⁶ FLOPS

3 comments

25 forecasters

On January 1, 2030, what will be the difference (in FLOP) between the largest AI models from non-authoritarian and authoritarian countries?

Current estimate

4.2×10²⁵ FLOP

3 comments

Will the estimated training FLOPs of any exfiltrated AI exceed the indicated amount before the indicated year?

Year: 2040 FLOPs: 10e32Upcoming

Year: 2036 FLOPs: 10e32Upcoming

Year: 2028 FLOPs: 10e28Upcoming

3 comments

67 forecasters

How many Frontier AI labs will there be on Dec 31, 2025?

Current estimate

6 labs

10 comments

32 forecasters

Will the US government deem that an AI model has been trained with at least 1e26 FLOP before 2026?

Annulled

15 comments

43 forecasters

How many FLOPS will be used to train GPT-4 (if it is released)?

community

1.3×10²⁵

result

2.1×10²⁵

4 comments

2 forecasters

Will the FLOPs thresholds outlined in the US Executive Order on Safe, Secure, and Trustworthy Development and Use of Artificial Intelligence be updated before the indicated year?

2025result: No

2027result: Yes

2030result: Yes