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$5,000 in Prizes for Comments in the AI Pathways Tournament: Submit Before November 1

8
44 comments
AI Pathways Tournament

Respiratory Outlook October Update: Forecasts for Flu, COVID-19, RSV, and Measles This Season

4
0 comments
Respiratory Outlook 2025/26

Metaculus Community Giving Report (2023 – August 2025)

10
22 comments

🏆 Market Pulse Challenge 25Q3 Winners and Recap

5
0 comments
Market Pulse Challenge 25Q3
7 comments
123 forecasters

Before 2030, how many new AI labs will be leading labs within 2 years of their founding?

2 or 348.8%
0 or 131.7%
4 or 513.4%
0 comments
98 forecasters

What will be the best score by an AI on the full Humanity's Last Exam (HLE) before 2026?

Latest estimate
46.3%

This question is closed for forecasting.

5 comments
7 forecasters

When will large language models exceed superforecasters’ accuracy in ForecastBench?

Current estimate
24 May 2027
3 comments
17 forecasters

How many metric tons of ≥51% cultured meat will be sold from 2020 to 2050?

0 comments
53 forecasters

#23 - Will the new recreation software system be up and running before the end of 2025?

39.5%chance
24.5% this week
0 comments
100 forecasters

Will OpenAI top the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard on December 31, 2025?

35%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.