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Contributed by the Risk Threshold Forecasting community.

When will Google first report that an AI system has reached or surpassed the following Machine Learning R&D risk levels?

Forecast revealed in 3 days

Contributed by the Risk Threshold Forecasting community.

When will OpenAI first report that an AI system has achieved the following a risk levels on AI Self-improvement?

Forecast revealed in 3 days

Contributed by the Risk Threshold Forecasting community.

When will Anthropic first report that an AI system has reached or surpassed the following AI R&D risk levels?

Forecast revealed in 4 days

Contributed by the Risk Threshold Forecasting community.

When will OpenAI first report that an AI system has achieved the following a risk levels on Biological and Chemical?

Forecast revealed in 3 days

Contributed by the Risk Threshold Forecasting community.

When will Google first report that an AI system has reached or surpassed the following Cyber risk levels?

Forecast revealed in 3 days

Contributed by the Risk Threshold Forecasting community.

When will OpenAI first report that an AI system has achieved the following a risk levels on Cybersecurity?

Forecast revealed in 3 days

Contributed by the Risk Threshold Forecasting community.

When will Google first report that an AI system has reached or surpassed the following Instrumental Reasoning risk levels?

Forecast revealed in 3 days

When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

Key Factor

China starts a war with Taiwan

May 2031

Key Factor

China starts a war with Taiwan

What percentage in the US will trust AI in the following years, according to the Edelman Trust Barometer?

202638.7
202849
203049.7

Will a paper with an AI as an author be published at NeurIPS, ICML, or ICLR before 2028?

63%chance
27% this week