97 comments
97 forecasters
Will the community prediction be higher than 16.00% on 2025-11-07 for the Metaculus question "Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2026?"?
resultNo
0 comments
107 forecasters
Will a major AI lab claim in 2025 that they have developed AGI?
15%chance
This question is closed for forecasting.
0 comments
32 forecasters
Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?
OVH29%
Google Cloud12%
Amazon Web Services11%
96 comments
183 forecasters
When will an AI program be better than humans at making Metaculus forecasts?
Current estimate
Sep 2031
Contributed by the AI Warning Signs community.
2 comments
11 forecasters
Before 2030, will a foundation-model-based AI system make $50M in realized profits from not more than $1M of traditional investments and trades?
62.8%chance
2 comments
40 forecasters
Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators designed by a Chinese firm before 2028?
OVH25%
Amazon Web Services5%
Microsoft Azure5%
95 comments
95 forecasters
Will the community prediction be higher than 19.00% on 2025-10-23 for the Metaculus question "Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2026?"?
resultNo
3 comments
5 forecasters
What will be the sector weighting of the Technology and Communication Services Sector in the S&P 500 on January 1, 2027?
Current estimate
0.449%
6 comments
82 forecasters
Will OpenAI, DeepMind, or Anthropic have revenue of at least $100B in 2027?
50%chance
5% this week
Key Factors