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Will US residents be able to order Starbucks delivery using one of these major AI interfaces before 2026?
828 forecasters
Revealed
-11
37 comments
37
ACX 2025 Prediction Contest
AI Forecasting Benchmark: Congratulations to Q4 Winners + Prepare for Q1 With Warmup Questions
5
13 comments
13
Will OpenAI top the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard on December 31, 2025?
551 forecasters
Revealed
2
6 comments
6
ACX 2025 Prediction Contest
Before 2030, how many new AI labs will be leading labs within 2 years of their founding?
0 or 1
52.94%
2 or 3
34.31%
4 or 5
7.84%
3 others
3
2 comments
2
Future of AI
Will there be Human-machine intelligence parity before 2040?
95%
1668 forecasters
223
155 comments
155
AGI Outcomes
Will a rogue Artificial Intelligence system, acting autonomously, cause at least the following numbers of deaths before 2050?
1 million
?
100,000
?
1,000
?
2 others
No forecasts yet
3
11 comments
11
Will AI be given legal rights or be protected from abuse anywhere in the United States before 2035?
18%
378 forecasters
15
19 comments
19
Regulation of AI
Will a major AI lab claim in 2025 that they have developed AGI?
20%
224 forecasters
14
15 comments
15
Future Perfect
When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?
2031-03-06
1463 forecasters
179
506 comments
506
AGI Outcomes
Will any frontier model be released in 2029 without a third-party evaluation of dangerous capabilities?
No forecasts yet
no comments
0
AGI Readiness Index
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