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Winners of the Forecast With GiveWell commenting prize
4
3 comments
3
Forecast With GiveWell
Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026?
Google DeepMind
51%
Microsoft
34%
xAI
22%
14 others
6
11 comments
11
Future of AI
Will an AI system be reported by OpenAI as of December 31st 2025 as having a pre-mitigation score of High or higher on Persuasion?
9 forecasters
Revealed
tomorrow
no comments
0
Harvard's AI Safety Student Team
Platform feature suggestions
112
2.7k comments
2.7k
Metaculus Meta
Will there be a frontier open-source AI model on January 1 of the following years?
2026
55%
2028
50%
2025
Yes
1 other
10
33 comments
33
Effective Institutions Project
Will any rationalist, effective altruist, or AI safety researcher go on the Joe Rogan Experience before 2026?
61%
1307 forecasters
53
25 comments
25
ACX 2025 Prediction Contest
Will a Fields medalist have spent at least a year trying AI safety research before the following years?
2036
24%
2030
20%
2026
1%
6