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Predictions as Public Works Project โย What Metaculus Is Building Next
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0
How much will GiveWell update its cost-effectiveness estimate of GiveDirectly based on the results of the 2023-2024 follow-up of the Cash Transfers Study by UC Berkeley?
2
no comments
0
Five years after AGI, what % of people will be living in extreme poverty?
5.11
4
3 comments
3
Five Years After AGI
When will the Open Philanthropy Project have donated a total of $7 billion of Good Ventures money?
Closed
6
19 comments
19
How many members will Giving What We Can have on 2029-11-15, its 20th anniversary?
Closed
5
7 comments
7
Platform feature suggestions
110
2.7k comments
2.7k
Metaculus Meta
If a small inducement prize platform is created for effective altruists, how many dollars of prize money will be disbursed within a year?
Closed
4
5 comments
5
Will there be a positive transition to a world with radically smarter-than-human artificial intelligence?
51%
32
98 comments
98
AGI Outcomes
What will be the average impact score, as judged in 2032, for accomplishing the milestone of developing a tool that can perturb and record from all neurons in C. elegans?
Scientific Impact Score
6.32
Social Impact Score
3.09
3
7 comments
7
Complete Map of Neural Input-Output Functions
What will be the average impact score, as judged in 2032, for accomplishing the milestone of developing a predictive model of the C. elegans nervous system?
Scientific Impact Score
6.68
Social Impact Score
3.44
3
8 comments
8
Complete Map of Neural Input-Output Functions
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