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If you fall and can't get up, when will there be a friendly computer looking on to notice your predicament?
Closed
37 forecasters
4
5 comments
5
Will a mouse be confirmed to have lived for 2,500 days before 1 January 2035?
55%
158 forecasters
33
28 comments
28
PhilPapers survey mini-series: Impermissibility of eating animals and animal products
Resolved :
18.4
65 forecasters
13
14 comments
14
The Salk Tournament for coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) Vaccine R&D
24
34 comments
34
Metaculus 2020 census-questions ideas
3
no comments
0
Metaculus Meta
When will there be at least one billion Americans?
2120-12-26
59 forecasters
13
28 comments
28
🔬Aug 29—Transparent Replications: New Study
16
no comments
0
Transparent Replications
Before July 1, 2023, will an agentized-LLM system improve itself?
Resolved :
No
226 forecasters
16
51 comments
51
AI Safety
Will the main finding of study 1 from “Relational diversity in social portfolios predicts well-being” in PNAS replicate?
Resolved :
Yes
21 forecasters
4
2 comments
2
Transparent Replications
How many claims from Study 4 of the JPSP paper, "Collective transcendence beliefs shape the sacredness of objects: The case of art" will replicate?
Resolved :
9
11 forecasters
5
6 comments
6
Transparent Replications
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