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Q1 AI Benchmark Results: Pro Forecasters Crush Bots

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Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament

Platform feature suggestions

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Metaculus Meta

Will an OpenAI model be ranked #1 overall on the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard at the end of the 2nd Quarter of 2025?

resultNo

Will a Gemini model be ranked #1 overall on the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard at the end of the 2nd Quarter of 2025?

Annulled

What will be the CDC's In-Season Flu Severity Assessment for 2025-2026?

Forecast revealed in 4 days

What will the flash consumer confidence in the Euro Area be for June 2025?

-16.2 to -15.2result: Yes
-15.1 to -14.7result: No
-14.6 to -14.3result: No
and 5 others

What will be the COVID-19 booster coverage for the 2025-26 season among the following groups in the US?

Forecast revealed in 4 days

What proportion of tested influenza sequences will CDC report as influenza A during the 2025-26 season through the end of April 2026?

Forecast revealed in 4 days

What proportions of influenza A subtype sequences will CDC report during the 2025-2026 season?

Forecast revealed in 4 days

When will the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people occur for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2025-2026 season?

Forecast revealed in 4 days