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US Democracy Index

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Which players will qualify and play in the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament?

Hikaru Nakamura99.9%

R Praggnanandhaa99.9%

Anish Giri99.9%

22 comments

42 forecasters

What will be the number of Palestinian deaths in Gaza during the late 2025 ceasefire?

Current estimate

>2193 deaths

135 comments

307 forecasters

Will the United States attack Venezuela before 2026?

45%chance

Key Factors

4 comments

5 forecasters

How many nations will be net zero emissions on January 1st 2035?

Current estimate

2.93 Nations

1 comment

17 forecasters

Will the Trump administration release the Epstein Files before January 20, 2029?

33.3%chance

0 comments

4 forecasters

How many vehicle deliveries will Tesla report for Q4 2025?

Current estimate

378k vehicles

0 comments

19 forecasters

Will the sitting U.S. president’s net worth reach ≥4x its value before they were elected at any point in the following years?

2 comments

9 forecasters

Will Sean Duffy be Acting Administrator of NASA continuously through December 31, 2025?

50%chance

35% this week

1 comment

3 forecasters

When will the UK Interest Rate be 2% or lower?

Current estimate

02 Sep 2027

1 comment

20 forecasters

Which players will qualify and play in the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament?

What will be the number of Palestinian deaths in Gaza during the late 2025 ceasefire?

Will the United States attack Venezuela before 2026?

How many nations will be net zero emissions on January 1st 2035?

Will the Trump administration release the Epstein Files before January 20, 2029?

How many vehicle deliveries will Tesla report for Q4 2025?

Will the sitting U.S. president’s net worth reach ≥4x its value before they were elected at any point in the following years?

Will Sean Duffy be Acting Administrator of NASA continuously through December 31, 2025?

When will the UK Interest Rate be 2% or lower?

Will any U.S. authority refuse to recognize the citizenship of U.S.-born children of non-citizen parents for 90 days in the following years?

Which players will qualify and play in the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament?

What will be the number of Palestinian deaths in Gaza during the late 2025 ceasefire?

Will the United States attack Venezuela before 2026?

How many nations will be net zero emissions on January 1st 2035?

Will the Trump administration release the Epstein Files before January 20, 2029?

How many vehicle deliveries will Tesla report for Q4 2025?

Will the sitting U.S. president’s net worth reach ≥4x its value before they were elected at any point in the following years?

Will Sean Duffy be Acting Administrator of NASA continuously through December 31, 2025?

When will the UK Interest Rate be 2% or lower?

Will any U.S. authority refuse to recognize the citizenship of U.S.-born children of non-citizen parents for 90 days in the following years?