MetaculusM

Questions
Tournaments

Leaderboards
News
create

AI Benchmarking

Forecast With GiveWell

Topics

categories

See all categories

About
API

FAQ
forecasting resources
For Journalists

Careers

Guidelines Privacy Policy Terms of Use

By 2050, Will at least 20% of US births be screened as embryos to detect genetic disorders or disabilities?

8

How many total SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccine doses will the US FDA and CDC recommend for at least 15% of the US on December 31, 2024?

127 forecasters

7

Biosecurity Tournament

Before 2032, will a vaccine against HIV-1 be approved by the USA, UK, EU, or Canada?

187 forecasters

19

Biosecurity Tournament

Will the cost of sequencing a human genome fall below $500 by mid 2016?

Resolved :No51%

35

By July 1, 2016 will a 'biohacker' create a new life form that enters the ecosystem?

Resolved :No11%

19

Will a clinical trial begin by the end of 2017 using CRISPR to genetically modify a living human?

Resolved :Yes52%

167 forecasters

53

Playing God Series

By the end of 2017 will a gene drive targeting malaria be initiated?

Resolved :No54%

27

Playing God Series

By 2020, will an implanted human embryo with artificially edited DNA be brought to term?

Resolved :Yes30%

525 forecasters

123

Playing God Series

Major contentious CRISPR patent to be overturned?

Resolved :No57%

9

All major causes of blindness preventable or treatable by 2020?

Resolved :No19%

103 forecasters

3