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US Democracy Index

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Will Iran announce an evacuation of Tehran before 2026?

19%chance

8% today

Key Factors

5 comments

12 forecasters

Which players will qualify and play in the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament?

Hikaru Nakamura99.9%

Anish Giri99.9%

R Praggnanandhaa99.9%

135 comments

315 forecasters

Will the United States attack Venezuela before 2026?

48%chance

Key Factors

22 comments

45 forecasters

What will be the number of Palestinian deaths in Gaza during the late 2025 ceasefire?

Current estimate

>2193 deaths

1 comment

17 forecasters

Will the Trump administration release the Epstein Files before January 20, 2029?

34%chance

4% this week

4 comments

18 forecasters

Will Nancy Pelosi beat the S&P 500 in 2025?

63%chance

22% this week

6 comments

11 forecasters

Will legislation pass before 2029 that reduces the federal long-term capital gains tax rate for the highest income bracket?

34%chance

46% this week

4 comments

5 forecasters

How many nations will be net zero emissions on January 1st 2035?

Current estimate

2.93 Nations

2 comments

5 forecasters

How many vehicle deliveries will Tesla report for Q4 2025?

Current estimate

433k vehicles

0 comments

19 forecasters

Will Iran announce an evacuation of Tehran before 2026?

Which players will qualify and play in the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament?

Will the United States attack Venezuela before 2026?

What will be the number of Palestinian deaths in Gaza during the late 2025 ceasefire?

Will the Trump administration release the Epstein Files before January 20, 2029?

Will Nancy Pelosi beat the S&P 500 in 2025?

Will legislation pass before 2029 that reduces the federal long-term capital gains tax rate for the highest income bracket?

How many nations will be net zero emissions on January 1st 2035?

How many vehicle deliveries will Tesla report for Q4 2025?

Will the sitting U.S. president’s net worth reach ≥4x its value before they were elected at any point in the following years?

Will Iran announce an evacuation of Tehran before 2026?

Which players will qualify and play in the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament?

Will the United States attack Venezuela before 2026?

What will be the number of Palestinian deaths in Gaza during the late 2025 ceasefire?

Will the Trump administration release the Epstein Files before January 20, 2029?

Will Nancy Pelosi beat the S&P 500 in 2025?

Will legislation pass before 2029 that reduces the federal long-term capital gains tax rate for the highest income bracket?

How many nations will be net zero emissions on January 1st 2035?

How many vehicle deliveries will Tesla report for Q4 2025?

Will the sitting U.S. president’s net worth reach ≥4x its value before they were elected at any point in the following years?